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FORECAST EVALUATION OF A COMPLEX MECHANICAL SYSTEM TECHNICAL STATE

A method is proposed for estimating of a mechanical system technical state by its element that requires priority replacement at a selected future point in time, in the case of specifying quantitative indicators of reliability in the form of a time series. The method is applicable both for serial-parallel systems and for the general case of connecting elements along a complete graph, the special cases of which can be represented by all other methods of the reliability analysis scheme. To predict the state of each element, an approximation is used.