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Dynamical and probabilistic approaches to the study of blackout vulnerability of the power transmission grid

The CASCADE probabilistic model for cascading failures gives a simple characterization of the transition from an isolated failure to a system-wide collapse as system loading increases. Using the basic ideas of this model, the parameters that lead to a similar characterization for power transmission system blackouts are identified in the OPA dynamical model of series of blackouts. The comparison between the CASCADE and OPA models yields parameters that can be computed from the OPA model that indicate a threshold for cascading failure blackouts. This is a first step towards computing similar parameters for real power transmission systems.