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A Study on Probability Distribution Models for Multiple Wind Speeds

The large-scale development of wind energy leads to the integration of multiple wind farms into a power system in a region. Due to the geographic locations of wind farms, wind speeds at different sites show certain dependence between each other, which has a considerable impact on the wind energy potential. An essential step in studying the impaction is the construction of relatively accurate wind speed models incorporating the dependence. In this paper, four probabilistic models of multiple wind speeds are introduced, including conditional distribution model, correlation matrix transformation model, normal transformation model and copula function model. The modeling procedure and simulation methodology are illustrated. The model accuracy is analyzed and compared using two actual wind speed data. Useful conclusions are obtained for further study and application.