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Import Competition and Job Displacement: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing, 1981–1999

The relationship between import competition and job displacement is examined using Displaced Worker Survey data and industry-level trade quantity and price data. Analysis is undertaken for the full manufacturing workforce and for various worker types. Heterogeneity in employment effects across worker types is first reported here. Import competition is found to increase displacement rates for high school graduates, workers who have completed some college, non-union workers and workers aged 44 years or less. Increased exports, business cycle upturns and positive domestic demand shifts are all found to temper the job displacing effects of rising import competition.