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Out of the Sample and One Step Ahead: Forecasting Supreme Court Confirmation Votes

We propose and test a model to forecast confirmation votes for Supreme Court nominees. Overall, the confirmation-vote model is a substantial step in the forecasting of the level of formal opposition (nay votes) in the Senate. Nominee-based characteristics—qualifications and ideological extremism—are strong predictors of the percentage of nay votes a nominee can expect during the confirmation vote. As another presidential election approaches, we provide forecasts of the formal opposition of potential nominees to the nation's highest court.