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Forecasting Mexican Import Demand For Dairy Products

Fluid milk and cheese imports have been increasing in Mexico, especially in the years preceding the devaluation of the peso. This study estimates import demand for fluid milk and cheese in Mexico and for 1975-1995. Estimated real exchange rate and income parameters are then used to forecast import demand for the two dairy products through the year 2000. Results show that fluid milk imports will continue to increase after the drop in 1995, and will reach its 1994 levels by 2000. Cheese imports however, will decline to about 10,000 MT and will stabilize at that level.