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REGIONAL CHANGE ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION OF NURSERY SCHOOLS AND INFANTS NUMBER IN RURAL AREA (YAMAGUCHI PREFECTURE)

In this paper, we will track and discuss the changes in enrollment numbers of infants in nursery schools since 1960 in order to estimate future enrollment trends. First, the trajectory of enrollment numbers in Yamaguchi Prefecture is established. Second, an attempt is made to estimate future numbers of infants who will attend nursery school (and thus facility and capacity needs) by considering attendance trends as they relate to the number of infants in each household type. In addition, a consideration is made concerning whether policy effectively addresses supply and demand for childcare in the intermediate and mountainous areas of the region, where the population has decreased. Birthrate figures are added using the current facilities planning strategy of the district entities. The results are as follows: 1) In the whole prefecture, the number of nursery schools and their total capacity increased from 1960 to 1980. This was due to the increasing birthrate: a larger number of infants were born and needed childcare. From 1980 to 1995, as the birthrate decreased, the number of nursery schools and total capacity also declined. The number of children attending nursery school trended upward with the increase in double-income households. In rural areas, however, the downward trend continued due to the declining population and fewer households . This has been especially noticeable since 2000. 2) The results of these calculations show that the number of infants attending nursery school has been decreasing slightly since 2005, when there were 25,600 children. The number of infants needing childcare increases with the trend of double-income households. The results of our calculations cause us to estimate that 22,700 children will need childcare by 2035. The trend of childcare enrollment numbers also relates to the income levels of the households; those with lower employment income show a downward tendency in attendance, particularly in rural districts. The enrollment number of children in nursery schools in 2005 decreased to 6,400 and continues to decline. These results allow us to estimate 3,900 children attending nursery school by 2035. There is a larger decrease in the number of infants attending nursery school in rural areas than in urban areas. 3) Results showed that this estimation of nursery schools and their capacities was effective by defining the rate of change. There was a small decrease from 2015 (209 nursery schools for a capacity of 19,900). In 2035, those numbers will be slightly different (181 schools for a capacity of 18,300) in urban areas. On the other hand, the number of nursery schools and capacity decreased steeply from 2015 (when there were 92 nursery schools for a capacity of 5,490) to the estimated number in 2035 (60 nursery schools for a capacity of 3,630). Results show a downward trend in the rural districts in comparison to urban areas. Therefore, a realistic and effective method to ensure an adequate number of schools and capacity in the future can be created from tracking vacancy trends year by year in both the intermediate and mountainous areas.