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FLOOD FORECAST AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT MODEL OPTIMIZATION OF THE OPERATION OF STORAGE POWER PLANTS FOR FLOOD ROUTING

A new model for flood prediction and management of the Rhone river basin is presented. This 5500 km 2 mountainous catchment area contains 10 major hydropower plants with their accumulation reservoirs. Based on a deterministic weather forecast, a new conceptual semi- distributed hydrological model provides a 72 hours lead time discharge forecast for the river network. It also provides the necessary input data for computing the optimal operation of the hydropower plants. The model takes into account snowmelt, glacier melt, soil infiltration, evapotranspiration as well as flood routing in rivers and reservoirs. It also uses the real-time weather and discharge measurements in order to adjust the hydrological forecast. The hydrological model was able to produce high quality discharge forecasts without real-time update and provides promising results with its transformation to an adaptative model. Another challenge presented in this study is the optimization of the operation of the existing hydropower plants during floods. The optimal operation is highly efficient for the reduction of the damages during such flood events. The first results highlighted its significant influence on flood peak reduction. The observed reduction of the peak discharge due to the alpine reservoirs was about 10% at the catchment outlet for the major flood events of 1993 and 2000 and the maximum reduction could have reached 25% with optimal operation of the hydropower plants during the same flood events.