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Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Climate and Hurricanes

NOAA’s team of hurricane specialists released their outlook for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season on May 22nd, calling for another above normal year. Forecasters predicted with 75% certainty that 13 to 17 named storms would form during the June 1st-November 30th season, with seven to 10 storms becoming hurricanes. Three to five hurricanes were predicted to develop into major hurricanes of at least Category 3 strength with winds above 110 mph. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Environmental patterns contributing to the above normal forecast include warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the ongoing active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal, which is believed to have contributed to increased levels of storm activity since it began in 1995. The possibility that La Niña conditions could develop in the next few months is also being closely monitored as a factor which could enhance the likelihood for greater levels of storm activity. The annual Atlantic pre-season hurricane outlook is a collaborative effort by scientists with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, AOML’s Hurricane Research Division (Stanley Goldenberg), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Coastal communities are urged to prepare for another active hurricane year. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Climate and Hurricanes