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Does Climate Impact Vary Across Time Horizons? A Time-frequency Analysis of Climate-crop Yields in India


 Climate change is a major concern the world over; more for a predominantly agrarian country like India. In this paper we analyze the time horizon dynamics of crop and climate variables at the regional level in India. We also analyze the co-movements between crop yields and temperature and rainfall to observe the coherence across heterogenous time horizons. We employ Bai-Perron structural break and Continuous wavelet transform methods on yearly data of seven crop yields and climate variables. Observed variables are analyzed over a period of 55 years from 1956-2011 for the un-divided state of Andhra Pradesh, India. The study shows that there is a steady and constant increase of around 1.00 in annual average, maximum and minimum temperatures in the state, with two observed break points at 1978 and 2002. Rainfall depicts no systematic change with fluctuations being largely random. Wavelet based coherence analysis that map time-horizon specific dynamics of climate and crops with time periods exhibited significant co-movement between climatic and crop variable. Given shifts in climate patterns and subsequent shifts in co-movements across time horizons at the regional level, policy makers and crop scientists should design time specific and locally viable adaption and mitigation policies to tackle the impact of climate on crops and livelihoods.JEL Classification: C13, Q10, Q15, Q50, Q54