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The Effect of the 1859 Crop Year Upon Relative Productivity in the Antebellum Cotton South

Data from the manuscript census of Social Statistics and the Parker-Gallman sample are used to investigate (1) the role of yield fluctuations (the crop year) in both the growth of cotton and corn output from 1849 to 1859 and (2) the observed relative agricultural total factor productivity relationships in the antebellum South in 1859. The major conclusions are: (1) More than 20 percent of the growth in cotton output from 1849 to 1859 can be attributed to differences in the relative crop years; (2) The 1859 cotton crop year for the New South was much better than that in 1849, but the cotton crop year in the Old South was relatively poor; (3) Adjusting for the relative crop year eliminates much of the observed productivity advantage for slave agriculture; (4) The issue of whether the crop-year-adjusted or crop-year-unadjusted results are more representative of antebellum southern agriculture remains unresolved.