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Japan’s Economic Recovery: Insights from Multi-Region Dynamics

Despite its key contribution to global economic growth through the 1960s and 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the importance of Japan recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as global investor and trading partner. Yet this role has been threatened by a tendency for its economy to stagnate since the 1990s and by the tragic earthquake of 2011, both of which have implications for global economic performance. This paper briefly reviews the many claimed sources of Japan’s stagnation and then analyses the sources of recovery along with the implications of the 3-11 disaster, using a multi-region global dynamic model. Both demand and supply side determinants prove important though it is shown that a key future role will be played by the performance of Japan’s services sector and of the industrial policies that affect it.