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Simulation of the Progression of the COVID-19 Disease in Northwest Syria Using Basic and Adjusted SIR Model


 Background: Syria has been experienced an armed conflict since 2011. At the time of writing, Northwest Syria is outside governmental control and facing the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this research, we studied the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in northwest Syria. We studied the impact of wearing facial masks and discussed the results compared to the existing figures and facts.
Methods: Based on available data and using the basic and adjusted SIR model, we estimated the value of the basic reproduction number () which gives an initial prediction of the disease progression. We studied the disease progression for one year (from July 2020 to July 2021) and simulated using the basic and adjusted SIR models.
Results: We estimated that the for 2019-nCOV was 2.38, and the resulted figures were overestimated compared to the reported numbers and data concerning the COVID-19 pandemic. However, when adjusting the model by a preventive measure (in this case, wearing face masks), the results were significantly less and closer to the actual reported numbers.
Conclusions: Hospital utilization throughout 365 days was projected depending on the basic and adjusted SIR model. The pandemic's peak in the studied area was predicted to arise in December 2020. The expected number of cases to be infected and admitted to hospitals and ICU in 365 days was 633636, 1901, and between 1141 and 2090, accordingly.