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A Stochastic Model of Migrant Rescue in the Mediterranean Sea

We theoretically study the rescue of destitute migrants seeking to reach Europe on boats across the Mediterranean Sea. To this end, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) model of a stylized rescue process. Second, we specify the one-step transition probabilities of the DTMC. Third, we delineate a recursive algorithm that can be used to compute the limiting or steady-state probabilities of our DTMC model. Finally, we use these limiting probabilities to compute the average throughput. This metric is an efficiency measure and it tells us the long run expected number of migrants that are rescued by the stylized rescue process under study.