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A simulation of the Gulf of Finland ecosystem with a 3D model

Abstract. Comparison of simulations with a 3D eutrophication model with observation data for the Gulf of Finland showed that the model reproduced satisfactorily typical features of seasonal variability in the Gulf of Finland system, especially in the surface layers. However, as the model is driven by real atmospheric forcing for 1995–2000 and by climatically average river runoff and nutrient loads, it was unable to simulate the exact succession of events occurring in the deep layers of the gulf during this period. More time-specific data are needed both for prescription of boundary conditions and as validation criteria in order to further calibrate the model and test its performance. Key words: eutrophication, 3D modelling, hydrodynamics, biogeochemical cycles, validation, Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland. INTRODUCTION The Gulf of Finland collects from its watershed about 20% of the terrestrial inputs of total nitrogen and phosphorus into the entire Baltic Sea (HELCOM, 1998). The eastern part of the gulf, which receives over 70% and 80% of the total phosphorus and nitrogen land loads to the gulf, respectively (Pitkanen et al., 2001), is even more subject to anthropogenic impact. The elevated trophic status of the gulf results in occasional cyanobacteria blooms, oxygen deficiency, macrofauna