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A comparative study of the scalability of alternative metamodelling techniques

Metamodels, also known as surrogate models, can be used in place of computationally expensive simulation models to increase computational efficiency for the purposes of design optimization or design space exploration. The accuracy of these metamodels varies with the scale and complexity of the underlying model. In this article, three metamodelling methods are evaluated with respect to their capabilities for modelling high-dimensional, nonlinear, multimodal functions. Methods analyzed include kriging, radial basis functions, and support vector regression. Each metamodelling technique is used to model a set of single output functions with dimensionality ranging from fifteen to fifty independent variables and modality ranging from one to ten local maxima. The number of points used to train the models is increased until a predetermined error threshold is met. Results show that kriging metamodels perform most consistently across a variety of functions, although radial basis functions and support vector regression are very competitive for highly multimodal functions and functions with large local gradients, respectively. Support vector regression metamodels consistently offer the shortest build and prediction times when applied to large scale multimodal problems.