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The Shetland Bird Survey: population trends for widespread breeding birds 2002–2019

ABSTRACT
 Capsule Population trends are estimated for the first time for 12 species based on Shetland Breeding Bird Survey data collected between 2002 and 2019. Aim To provide population trends for a selection of commoner breeding waders and passerines on the Shetland Isles, the most northerly region of the UK, which has historically been under-represented in national bird monitoring schemes. Methods One hundred and forty-five self-selected 1-km2 squares were surveyed between 2002 and 2019 using similar methods to the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), the main breeding bird monitoring scheme in the UK. Results Over 17 years, Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus, Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus, and Common Redshank Tringa totanus populations declined whilst Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata and Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago showed no significant changes in their population trends. For passerines, Common Skylark Alauda arvensis and Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe populations declined, whilst Common Starling Sturnus vulgaris, Common Blackbird Turdus merula, and House Sparrow Passer domesticus increased. Winter Wren Troglodytes troglodytes and Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis showed no significant population changes. Comparisons with BBS trends for the UK and for Scotland are provided. For Eurasian Curlew, Common Starling, and House Sparrow, trends were more favourable in Shetland than elsewhere in UK. Conclusion The Shetland Breeding Bird Survey provides useful trends for several bird species, which include important breeding numbers of Winter Wren and Common Starling (both endemic subspecies), as well as nationally important wader populations. We recommend increasing the number of survey squares sampled each year, which would increase the precision of population estimates. The inclusion of a random or stratified element to square selection would help to ensure that these trends are representative of the wider region.