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Another Century of Conflict? War and the International System in the 21st Century

This article examines the major factors likely to affect sources and methods of armed conflict in the coming century. First, it considers the role of changing military technology, concentrating on the Revolution in Military Affairs. Second, it then turns to the issue of possible balances between economic conflict and cooperation and their effects on war, including whether the current extreme economic inequality within and between nations will be reduced by widespread industrialization and the prospects for China becoming an economic equal of and military rival to the USA. Third, it considers how climate change may affect the role of states and the sources of conflict between them. Finally, it raises the question of whether international norms will be extended and consolidated, leading to greater cosmopolitan governance. It concludes that this is unlikely in an environment where states are facing confrontational non-state actors and where the major powers are forced to intervene in collapsing states. The article envisages a century of conflict, different from the 20th century but in many ways no less brutal.