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Investigating the Impacts of Urbanization on Vegetation Net Primary Productivity: A Case Study of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration from the Perspective of Townships

As an emerging national strategic urban agglomeration in China, the changing trend of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and the impact of the urbanization level (UL) on carbon cycle functions in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CUA) have received increasing attention. Previous studies have largely overlooked externalities and the heterogeneity of urbanization effects, and urbanization has also been analyzed in isolation (with focus being on land and population urbanization). In this study, the spatial evolution of NPP was evaluated from 2000 to 2020 at the township level (3859) using multivariate remote sensing data and a comprehensive index (UL) that included population urbanization, land urbanization, and economic urbanization. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation, spatial Durbin models, and geographically weighted regression models were used to analyze the spatial externalities of urbanization impacts and assess the global and local effects. The results show that the region’s mean NPP increased by 177.25 g*c/m2 (annual growth of 1.59%), exhibiting a distribution of “low in the middle and high in the periphery” and low-value clustering along major traffic arteries and rivers. Low-value-NPP areas were mainly located in urban centers, while the high-level areas were in the mountainous region (in the southwest and southeast) and significantly expanded over time. Negative correlation clusters were the main clustering types between the UL and NPP; the “High-Low” negative correlation clusters accelerated outward from the urban centers of Chengdu and Chongqing. Overall, urbanization had negative direct and spillover effects on NPP, exhibiting spatial non-stationarity of the negative driving effect within the urban agglomeration. The results indicate the need to strengthen regional ecological joint governance and adopt more place-based urbanization optimization strategies. This study offers new insights to help to reduce the constraining effects of urbanization on vegetation productivity and ecological functions from the perspectives of population agglomeration, land expansion, and industrial construction.