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COVID-19, Panic Now!! A Call to Action because the Numbers Are Deceptive

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease, which has no cure or a vaccine. To reduce the spread of the disease, WHO has urged to practice social distancing, and to implement interventions, such as lockdowns, and stringent quarantine measures. However, these decisions are costly. The impetus to making optimal but difficult decisions lies in comprehending the associated risks, and progression of COVID-19 disease. 
 
With our analysis, we conclude that due to unique features of COVID-19, the numbers are deceptive. Choices based on the number of confirmed cases will be suboptimal. 
 
We recommend governments to be forward looking and impose strict mitigation strategies before the demand for critical care reaches 10% of the system’s capacity. This would reduce not only the overall spread, but also the strain on the healthcare system. A delay of each day may lead to thousands of more deaths per million population. 
 
For individuals, we show that the risk of exposure is 20-60 times higher than what they might believe. Individuals making choices based on the number of confirmed cases (instead of estimated infected) would underestimate the risk of exposure, leading to a delay in practicing social distancing and other recommended measures. 
 
Given the current COVID-19 situation it is better to be over cautious than remain under cautious. Time to act is “Now”.