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Evaluating the predictive power of a procedural model for the European Union legislative process

This article analyses the European Union legislative process with the help of formal models of decision-making. The predictions gained from a procedural model are compared with the power of a much simpler model that is informed by the median voter theorem. The finding of the analysis shows that the simpler model out-performs the more complex one. The article proceeds by deriving the hypothesis that the more salient an issue is for EU policy-makers, the higher the probability becomes that the procedural model out-performs the median model. The test results show that this hypothesis can be confirmed.