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Taking Stock: Transitional Justice and Market Effects

The relationship between transitional justice and economic development has recently attracted the attention of academics and policymakers. An emerging literature highlights the tension between the forward-looking economic goals of growth, development, and investment, and the backward-looking trials and truth commissions. Current research focuses on states’ ability to compete for international assistance or on underdeveloped countries’ efforts toward economic reconstruction following periods of civil war and authoritarianism. This paper broadens the scope of the study of the political economy of transitional justice by examining the effect of transitional justice mechanisms (trials, truth commissions, and amnesties) on the perceptions of private investors. Specifically, using time-series data for Argentina, Chile, Brazil, and Spain, we explore how stock markets have responded to efforts to uncover information about past human rights abuses and to prosecute those responsible. The paper draws on a range of data on transitional justice events, and utilizes daily stock market data.