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Photochemical Modeling in California with Two Chemical Mechanisms: Model Intercomparison and Response to Emission Reductions

ABSTRACT An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July– August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment. Therefore, additional study is required to evaluate the full regulatory implications of upgrading air quality models to SAPRC07. IMPLICATIONS CMAQ simulations of gas-phase pollutants over California were conducted using the newly released SAPRC07C gas-phase chemical mechanism and the previous released version, SAPRC99. SAPRC07C predicted slightly lower concentrations of O3 and important radical species than did SAPRC99 in key polluted regions of California. In certain regions, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to 20% reductions in NOx emissions, whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3. A consequence of this difference is that areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded for SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99.