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Analysis and prognosis of the epidemic status of the combined HIV/tuberculosis infection in ­correctional facilities

Aim. To study the current state of the epidemic status of co-infection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis in penitentiary facilities and to predict its further development. 
Methods. The material for the study was the data of departmental forms of medical statistical reporting for the period from 2005 to 2018. 
Results. It has been established that the epidemic status of tuberculosis in the penitentiary system institutions is improving, reflected by a decrease in mortality rate over the study period by more than 90%. However, over the study period, the incidence of co-infection of HIV and tuberculosis in penitentiary institutions increased by 3.9 times, and the prevalence by more than 2.5 times. This trend is largely due to the growth of epidemiological indicators of HIV infection. This confirms the established fact that the proportion of HIV-infected people among people followed up with active tuberculosis increased by almost 10 times. Currently, more than one in three newly diagnosed patients with active tuberculosis is infected with HIV. Along with this, the proportion of cases with drug resistance is growing among bacillary patients with active tuberculosis. 
Conclusion. The increase in the number of people with co-infection with HIV and tuberculosis and drug-resistant forms of tuberculosis raises doubts on further favorable prognosis for the development of the epidemic situation on tuberculosis both in penitentiary institutions and in the Russian Federation as a whole: an epidemic potential is emerging for an even more complex problem HIV-associated tuberculosis with drug resistance.