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Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule and Economic Stability

A forward looking monetary policy rule has been estimated for the time period from 1991 to 2010 for Pakistan, an emerging economy. The estimated model explains a very clear shift in monetary policy objective across the sample period. State Bank of Pakistan, from 2000 onwards, seems to take insufficient measures for curtaining inflationary pressure. We also simulate a new Keynesian model to investigate the impact of such monetary policies. We show that policies in near past had a destabilizing effect on economy.