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Congressional District Results

There are demographic and political factors beyond turnout that matter for elections. Congressional districts are sufficiently small and homogeneous to permit an examination of turnout in the context of relevant political and demographic variables. That controlled analysis is presented here. For the two most recent decades, this chapter uses data sets that include relevant demographic and political variables for each of the congressional districts, including the ethnicity of the electorate, its age profile, and district income to account for the effect of socioeconomic status on the Democratic vote share. This contextual information presses the analysis one level further. An estimation of the relationship between turnout and Democratic vote is strengthened when other factors that are known to influence support for the Democrats are considered and included in the models.