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[Five-year disease-related risk of mortality in ambulatory frail older Japanese].

Objectives　We investigated the 5-year disease-related mortality risk, including that associated with neoplasms, mental/behavioral/neurodevelopmental disorders, and diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system,in ambulatory frail Japanese older adults.Methods　We retrospectively analyzed long-term care and health insurance claims data in this cohort study performed between April 2012 and March 2017. The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcome was care-need level decline. Risk factors were determined based on the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision codes, hospitalization, and institutionalization. The study included 1,239 ambulatory frail older adults newly certified as needing Support-Level care at baseline (April 2012-March 2013) across three Japanese municipalities.Results　Of the 1,239 participants, 454 (36.6%) died. Neoplasms (hazard ratio [HR] 2.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.97-3.68) or respiratory system diseases (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.26-2.08) were independently associated with mortality. Mental/behavioral/neurodevelopmental disorders (HR 1.39, 95%CI 1.17-1.66) or diseases of the respiratory system(HR 86, 95%CI 75-99) were independently associated with care-need level decline.Conclusions　This study suggests that neoplasms or respiratory system diseases were associated with a high mortality risk and that mental/behavioral/neurodevelopmental disorders were associated with care-need level decline among ambulatory frail older adults. Optimal disease management and effective long-term care are important to delay the onset of these events in older adults certified as needing Support-Level care.