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Combining Evidence in Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks

Summary This paper is about helping people who make critical decisions improve the quality of their judgements. We provide a brief introduction to Bayesian Nets (BNs) and use an example in safety assessment. We show how BNs enable decision-makers to combine different types of evidence (including subjective judgements) to provide quantitative, auditable arguments. By using state-ofthe-art BN technology it is now easy for decision-makers to develop solutions that scale up to the most complex types of problems.