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Generation adequacy assessment of power systems with wind generation: A system operations perspective

The increasing wind penetration levels in today's power systems are creating challenges for system operators when maintaining adequate system reliability. Since ancillary service requirements are usually based on historical performance and engineering experience, a tool which could assess the system reliability status and determine when additional services are needed would be very beneficial for system operators, especially for systems experiencing large wind fluctuations. In this paper, an approach is proposed to assess the operational system generation adequacy by considering the generators' forced outages, the load forecasting deviations, and most importantly the wind forecasting deviations. The objective of this approach is to present a quantitative method of evaluating the hourly and daily reliability risk levels on a day-ahead and hour-ahead basis. Using probabilistic methods, an operational reliability assessment tool is developed to assist system operators in identifying high risk periods and making the necessary adjustments to ensure acceptable levels of system reliability.