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[The building and validation of a model to predict the bone metastases of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer].

OBJECTIVE
To develop and validate a nomogram used to predict the bone metastasis risks according to the clinicopathological factors of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.


METHODS
The 501 cases were randomly assigned into development sample (300 cases) and validation sample (201 cases). In the development sample, Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the predictors of bone metastases, and then a nomogram was built based on regression coefficients and validated in the validation sample.


RESULTS
Prostate specific antigen, cT3, cT4 and Gleason score ≥ 8 were the independent prognostic factors (P < 0.05), and the OR values were 5.65, 2.89, 9.07 and 2.87 respectively. The concordance index was 0.830 in the model sample and 0.799 in the validation sample.


CONCLUSION
A nomogram, built based on the clinicopathological factors, could be used to predict the risk of bone metastases and then could be helpful for the rational use of bone scan.