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A day-ahead real net transfer capacity forecast based on the prediction of the real cooling conditions for interconnection overhead lines

Modern power systems with a big share of renewable energy sources require a new approach regarding real net transfer capacities of interconnecting overhead lines (OHL). Knowing the real net transfer capacities (NTC) between certain regions one day in advance is of a great importance for the normal market operation and optimal system planning. This paper develops a day-ahead forecasting model of the OHL cooling conditions on the hourly basis. Based on the forecasted wind and insolation parameters, with respect to spatial and vertical aspect, real transfer capacities of interconnection overhead lines can be estimated on an hourly basis for the following day. These calculations could have a huge importance in terms of optimal planning of transactions and congestions management, as well as of optimal energy export from regions with large penetration of wind generation.