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Real‐time shock arrival predictions during the “Halloween 2003 epoch”

The “Halloween” epoch from 19 October to 20 November 2003 was marked by 19 major solar flares that were accompanied by metric type II radio bursts. Several of these flares were followed by major geomagnetic storms. The radio bursts were used in real time because they imply coronal and interplanetary transport. Most of these events were also associated with halo (or partial halo) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A continuing, widely distributed, real‐time research project called “fearless forecasts,” using an ensemble of four physics‐based models, has been made of the ensuing shock arrival times since 1997 at the L1 libration point. Model inputs include consideration of the type II shock speed estimates above the flare sites as well as preliminary CME leading edge speeds in the plane of sky. Thus the model ensemble used inputs that were guided by both speed estimates. The rationale for using CME speeds includes the assumption that their high speeds represented the shocks themselves in addition to an assumption concerning their quasi‐sphericity as they left the Sun. We compare the shock arrival predictions to those observed by the solar wind and magnetic field monitors on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the solar wind monitor on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite. Success rates of the models are provided as a metric for this kind of active epoch. These success rates are 79% for one of the considered models using a “hit” window of ±24 hours and 74% when ±15 hours was used. This model demonstrates the importance of simulating both nonhomogeneous background environments and complex shock interactions.