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In or out of Europe? What prospects for Ukraine?

Abstract The paper outlines the ambitions of, and economic and political reasons for, Ukraine to join the European Union (EU). Differences in interest and support for EU membership compared to other new EU members are discussed, including divisions among the population and elites, and the economic consequences of the enlargement for Ukraine. Public and elite in the EU are shown to be divided and lacking in support for further enlargement to include Ukraine (and Turkey). Alternatives to full membership of the EU are discussed. The European Neighbourhood Policy is considered to be the only viable alternative. This has political disadvantages, but some compensations. These include the possibilities for an independent trading policy with Russia and other parties. It has the advantage of allowing readjustment to market conditions to take place more slowly, ensuring political stability. Policy implications are that Ukraine should aim to be within Europe as part of the ENP, rather striving for EU membership which is unlikely to be conceded by the EU.