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Icebergs and oil tankers soon to mix.

Independent computer models by A. Rasmussen of the U.S. Geological Survey and R. Bindschadler (N.A.S.A.) indicate that the Columbia Glacier, which fronts a fjord adjoining the Valdez shipping channel, will undergo a rapid retreat in 1982-85, which will result in calving of icebergs at rates up to 8-11 cubic km/year. The snout of the glacier is now on a shoal at 75 meter depth and backing slowly into deeper water; the models, which are based on field studies of the Columbia Glacier since 1977 and of calving glaciers in general, show that the rate of calving is proportional to the depth of water at the snout. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, it may be necessary to prohibit tanker traffic into Valdez during periods of maxmium calving. Storage facilities at Valdez can hold eight days worth of oil flow through the trans-Alaska pipeline at the current rate of 1.6 million bbl/day, and the pipeline could be shut down for two days without causing problems on the North Slope.