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Monitoring deforestation trend and future outlooks of the aboveground forest carbon stocks in Central Sumatra using ALOS-PALSAR mosaic data

In this research, we present methods for monitoring deforestation and examining implication of the forest policies in forest carbon stocks in the future utilizing ALOS-PALSAR data. Riau Province of central Sumatra is selected for the study as it has received worldwide attention due to high forest–related carbon emissions. An aboveground forest carbon stocks (AFCS) model was calibrated with field measurement data and L-band backscatters from high-resolution slope corrected PALSAR mosaic data of 2009 and 2010. A total of 87 plots of field measured AFCS data ranging 1 - 340 t/ha was used. This AFCS model provides the AFCS map with RMSE of ±45 t/ha. The AFCS modeling results was extrapolated across the province using the mosaic data. The model estimated 315 million tons of AFCS in the province in 2010. A spatial model was used to spatialize three forest policy scenarios. These scenario maps were overlaid with AFCS map for deriving future perspective on AFCS. The future spatial patterns of the AFCS between the policy scenarios are apparent. If the historical trend continues, the forest cover will be consistently disappeared leaving very few small forest patches and releasing 77% of the current AFCS in to the atmosphere by 2030. However, one of the governance scenarios in the province indicates that almost half of the carbon emission can be reduced in the same period.