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TRAVEL FORECASTING GUIDELINES FOR FEDERAL AND CALIFORNIA CLEAN AIR ACTS

Travel forecasting models are being proposed for use in emissions inventories to meet legislative requirements in the federal Clean Air Act Amendments (1990) and the California Clean Air Act (1988). Emissions inventories have requirements for the accuracy and usefulness of the model outputs and the validity of input data and assumptions different from those originally established for travel demand models. The travel forecasting guidelines were developed for the Department of Transportation of the state of California in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Transportation and were designed to meet the legislative requirements in the Clean Air Acts. The development of the travel forecasting guidelines, which involved a series of interactive review sessions with the California Statewide Modeling Group, is described. An overview of the guidelines is presented. These guidelines were developed to represent reasonable travel demand forecasting practice in support of the accuracy required by air quality analysis in four areas: input data and assumptions, travel demand modeling, emissions inventories, and research and recommendations. Since the completion of the travel forecasting guidelines, the document has been distributed by FHWA to all state departments of transportation and to all metropolitan planning organizations that are classified as nonattainment areas. FHWA has suggested that the guidelines be used as a tool for use in conformity analysis. In addition the Office of Traffic Improvement of the California Department of Transportation has distributed more than 300 copies of the report to state and regional transportation, congestion management, and air quality agencies within California.