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The Origins of the English Revolution: A Demographic Approach

Overall, the results obtained provided substantial support for the implicit contracts model. Specialization in agriculture, the relative importance of grain production, and unemployment rates were found to have a significant positive impact on per capita relief expenditures. Although neither land allotments nor cottage industry had a significant impact on relief expenditures, both were found to have a significant negative impact on wage income, suggesting that farmers responded to the existence of allotments and cottage industry by reducing their laborers' wage income rather than by reducing relief expenditures. On the whole, the results suggest that labor-hiring farmers were indeed profit-maximizers who were willing (and able) to use the Poor Law to pass some of the cost of securing a peak-season labor force on to non-labor-hiring taxpayers. The thesis concludes by reexamining the effect of the Settlement Law on rural-urban migration during the period of about 1780 to 1850. According to the traditional literature, industrial parishes inhibited rural-urban migration by removing large numbers of nonsettled laborers during recessions. I contend, however, that the low experience rating faced by urban manufacturers, in combination with the general scarcity of urban labor, should have led the manufacturer-dominated Boards of Guardians to be anxious to grant relief to unemployed nonsettled laborers during cyclical downturns. In other words, urban parishes should have been quite selective in their use of the power of removal. Although this hypothesis could not be explicitly tested, it was possible to determine the occupations of persons removed from six Northwestern cities during the downturn of 1840 to 1842. The overall removal rate of nonsettled persons who applied for relief during this period was between 10 and 15 percent. Only slightly more than onethird of the removals involved either skilled textile workers or unskilled laborers, whereas approximately 40 percent of the families removed were liable to be permanent charges on the parish. The results support the hypothesis that the threat of removal had only a slight impact on the rural-urban migration of able-bodied laborers.