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Optimal Conditional Error Functions for the Control of Conditional Power

Summary Ethical considerations and the competitive environment of clinical trials usually require that any given trial have sufficient power to detect a treatment advance. If at an interim analysis the available data are used to decide whether the trial is promising enough to be continued, investigators and sponsors often wish to have a high conditional power, which is the probability to reject the null hypothesis given the interim data and the alternative of interest. Under this requirement a design with interim sample size recalculation, which keeps the overall and conditional power at a prespecified value and preserves the overall type I error rate, is a reasonable alternative to a classical group sequential design, in which the conditional power is often too small. In this article two‐stage designs with control of overall and conditional power are constructed that minimize the expected sample size, either for a simple point alternative or for a random mixture of alternatives given by a prior density for the efficacy parameter. The presented optimality result applies to trials with and without an interim hypothesis test; in addition, one can account for constraints such as a minimal sample size for the second stage. The optimal designs will be illustrated with an example, and will be compared to the frequently considered method of using the conditional type I error level of a group sequential design.