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History Versus Expectations in Economic Geography: An Experimental Analysis

This paper adapts the canonical NEG model (with an infinite number of agents) for experimental testing (with a finite number of subjects) by developing a game-theoretic framework. The model gives clearly distinctive predictions when migration is consistent with history-driven behavior (HDB) and when it is consistent with expectation-driven behavior (EDB). The two alternatives are tested in an economic laboratory experiment with increasing number of agents in different treatments. Results show that EDB looses ground against HDB as the number of agents and periods increases, and this number may be surprisingly small.