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Modeling the potential distribution of the invasive golden mussel Limnoperna fortunei in the Upper Paraguay River system using limnological variables.

The invasive golden mussel, Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857), was introduced into the La Plata River estuary and quickly expanded upstream to the North, into the Paraguay and Paraná rivers. An ecological niche modeling approach, based on limnological variables, was used to predict the expansion of the golden mussel in the Paraguay River and its tributaries. We used three approaches to predict the geographic distribution: 1) the spatial distribution of calcium concentration and the saturation index for calcium carbonate (calcite); 2) the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) model; and the 3) Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent) model. Other limnological variables such as temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) were used in the latter two cases. Important tributaries of the Paraguay River such as the Cuiabá and Miranda/Aquidauana rivers exhibit high risk of invasion, while lower risk was observed in the chemically dilute waters of the middle basin where shell calcification may be limited by low calcium concentrations and carbonate mineral undersaturation.