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From Observations to Forecasts – Part 10: Conceptual models of mid‐latitude weather systems and the interpretation of synoptic charts

The introduction and development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models over the past 50 years and more has greatly aided the forecaster, allowing predictions of increased accuracy many days ahead (Golding et al., 2004; Met Office, 2010). The careful assessment of model output, combined with remote sensing and observations of greater density and precision, has allowed new ways of understanding the weather to be developed. This paper concentrates on the methods and theories currently used by forecasting teams to produce forecast charts for mean sea-level for the short and medium term; upper-air features are also indicated where they bring significant weather at the surface.