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The Utility of Infancy Weight Curves for the Prediction of Linear Growth Retardation in Preschool Children

ABSTRACT. Routine weight measurements, recorded on health cards of 95 Congolese infants, were collected during a cross‐sectional survey as the children were aged 1 to 5 years. The subjects were divided into two groups according to height‐for‐age (more or less than – 2 SD of NCHS reference) at the time of the survey. Adjustment of a mathematical function to the infancy weight curves allowed comparison of groups using the means of the function's parameters: The stunted children had been significantly lighter than the healthy group during infancy. Predictive values of estimated weights and quarterly weight gains were assessed by discriminant analysis and cut‐off points were computed. The weight gain between 3 and 6 months of age predicted stunting just as well as weight at age 1 year did. Sensitivity and specificity were at 77 % and 74 %, respectively. These results suggest that good prediction of stunting is possible from first‐year weight measurements.