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Modern Afghanistan: factors of instability

The article analyzes global, regional and internal factors that have a significant impact on socio-political fluctuations and destabilization in Afghanistan. A special attention is paid to the risks associated with regional security, including the problems of terrorism and drug threats. Among the stabilizing factors, a special place is given to the development of Afghanistan’s transit potential (the opportunity to become a connecting bridge between Central Asia and South Asia). The author analyzes the activities of the Taliban during their seven months in power, puts forward a hypothesis about the causes of internal confrontation in the movement and pays attention to the problem of recognition of the new government by the international community. It is noted that a paradoxical phenomenon has developed when negotiations on economic and infrastructure projects are conducted with the illegitimate, unrecognized government of the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in many countries), investment agreements are concluded, foreign policy relations are established, new diplomats are accepted. Perhaps, on the example of Afghanistan, the world will see a new mechanism for international legitimization of governments that seized power by force and were initially unrecognized by international partners.