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Research on Radical Innovation Technology Forecasting Based on Technology Evolution Theory

Radical innovation (RI) is a high efficient technology innovation for modern enterprises to participate in market competitions. It’s the great significance to upgrade technology and enhance the capability of the independent innovations for enterprises. After the product technology system was decomposed, we can summarize the core functions and core technical subsystems and analyze the current technology evolution state of the product core technical subsystems. For the mature stage of the product, the radical innovation technology forecasting inherent basic law is revealed through establishing product technology system evolution process model for radical innovation based on technology evolution theory. The technology forecasting process of the magnetic cushion belt conveyor is taken as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.