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Consistent Uncertainty Management in Expert Systems

All popular techniques that handle uncertain reasoning in rule-based systems may, under certain circumstances, exhibit inconsistencies or discrepancy of defined semantics with intuitive meaning. The paper investigates a formal system that constitutes a common framework for uncertainty management, and analyses each sequential step in an automated, forward or backward chaining, reasoning process. For each step, existing uncertainty management methods are compared, potential inconsistency revealed, and the correct procedure proposed.