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Wages and Productivity: Structural Changes are Crucial to Understand

Despite a tight labor market, wage and productivity growth remained low in the US in the post-Great Recession decade. Nominal hourly average wages rose by 2.6% in the US between 2016 and 2017, on par with post-Recession performance. Labor productivity growth averaged only 1.1% between 2007 and 2016. Between 1995 and 2007, by contrast, the average growth rate was 2.5%. Although cyclical factors may be partially to blame, there are several key structural features of the US economy contributing to diminished growth. Wage and productivity growth have been held back by persistently low inflation expectations, workforce demographics, and the shift in the payrolls distribution in the economy in favor of lower-wage sectors…