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Assessing demand by urban consumers for plug-in electric vehicles under future cost and technological scenarios

ABSTRACT Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are not currently being sold in the United States at rates sufficient to meet the stated goals of vehicle manufacturers or the federal government. Although touted as able to help mitigate a range of public problems—including climate change, oil insecurity, and urban air pollution—PEVs face numerous barriers to commercialization. Research and development activities are under way that may overcome some of the key disadvantages of the current generation of PEVs. This analysis employs a survey-based discrete-choice exercise with 961 potential new vehicle purchasers in large US cities to assess how consumer demand might change with various breakthroughs in PEV technology. Respondents are presented with different price and technology scenarios and are asked to choose which of four powertrains they are most likely to purchase: a gasoline vehicle, a conventional hybrid, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), or a battery electric vehicle (BEV). A multinomial logit is used to assess the relative impact that improvements in different attributes have on demand for each vehicle powertrain. When vehicles were presented with their current attributes, the conventional hybrid is the favored option. Under the breakthrough technology scenario that brings all vehicle powertrains into parity with gasoline vehicles along dimensions of cost, driving range, and recharging times, 44% of respondents state intent to purchase a BEV, which makes it the most frequently selected option. Public policy implications are discussed.