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Racial composition and trajectories of gentrification in the United States

Prior studies suggest that middle-income Americans are more likely to move to predominately white, low-income neighbourhoods than predominately black or Latino neighbourhoods. Given that black and Latino neighbourhoods are, on average, lower income and higher in poverty than low-income, white neighbourhoods, it may be that gentrification in these neighbourhoods is a different kind of change than that occurring in predominately white neighbourhoods. Using Census data from 1970 to 2010 for 275 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, I find that racial composition influences not only whether gentrification occurs, but how it occurs and whether it influences racial demographics. Majority white gentrifying tracts were more likely to experience an increase in higher-income residents and white residents, while majority non-white gentrifying tracts experienced an increase in higher-educated but not higher-income residents, and an increase in white residents and decrease in black and Latino residents. Racial composition thus contributed to the kind of gentrification that a tract experienced and the extent to which gentrification produced racial change. These findings suggest that race affects not only where gentrification occurs, as previously established, but also the kind of class and racial changes a neighbourhood experiences. Ultimately, this article suggests that gentrification neither unfolds in one way nor affects all neighbourhoods the same way.