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[The prospects of Chinese population growth from 1978 to 2028].


 The author presents two alternative projections of the future growth of the Chinese population. The first describes the probable population in 2000 based on official estimates for 1978 and assuming that national population policy goals can be implemented. The second projects population growth for the period 1978-2028 based on the 1978 age composition of the population and average birth and death rates for the period 1973-1978. Two conclusions are drawn. First, the national goal of zero population growth by 2000 will not be reached; at the earliest, the population will cease to grow in 2015. Second, in 2003 and 2028 the young population will greatly outnumber the aged, and in 50 years time half the population will be over 40 years of age.
