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The Psychotherapy Outcome Problem: The Development of the Outcome Stability Index

Abstract Objective: Psychotherapy research commonly utilizes clients’ last session score as an indicator of treatment outcome. We examined whether this last session score is consistent with what would be predicted based on clients’ general trajectory in psychological functioning across sessions. We focused on the unstandardized residual variance at the last session, as this represents the degree to which the session score is divergent (or not) from what is predicted from the previous sessions (i.e., Outcome Stability Index; OSI). Method: The sample included 27,958 clients who attended on average 9.41 sessions. Each session, clients completed the Behavioral Health Measure-20 as a measure of psychological functioning. We converted the unstandardized residual variance for clients’ last session score into a Cohen’s d coefficient to aid in interpretation. Results: The mean OSI was 0.07 (SD = 0.58), suggesting excellent stability in their last session therapy outcome scores. However, approximately 33% of clients demonstrated poor or extremely problematic stability in their last session therapy outcome scores. Clients who demonstrated poor stability were classified as demonstrating reliable deterioration. Conclusions: Researchers may want to consider reporting OSI to assist readers’ understanding of the stability of therapy outcomes. Clinical or methodological significance of this article: Therapy outcome scores can vary from session to session, which can influence how we understand therapy outcomes that rely on last session scores. Studies examining therapy outcomes could report the Outcome Stability Index to better contextualize the results.