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Recent Developments in the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

on statistical summaries. 2. BALZER WK, ROHRBAUGH J, MURPHY KR: Reliability of actual and predicted judgments across time. Organ Behav Hum Perform 32:109-123, 1983. Reports that people do have judgment policies that are generally stable over time; suggests that this stability is lessened when people describe their policies before making their judgments. 3. BEN-SHAKHAR G, BELLER M: An application of a decision-theoretic model to a quota-free selection problem. J Appl Psychol 68:137-146, 1983. Applies a threshold utility model for evaluating the selection of students to an academic program. 4. BEN-SHAKHAR G, LIEBLICH I, BAR-HILLEL M: An evaluation of polygraphers’ judgments: a review from a decision theoretic perspective. J Appl Psychol 67:701-713, 1983. Applies a signal detection model to derive the value system of polygraphers; shows that examiners tended to value the detection of guilty suspects highly, even in the presence of a high risk of falsely classifying innocent suspects. 5. BILLINGS RS, MARCUS SA: Measures of compensatory and noncompensatory models of decision behavior: process tracing versus policy capturing. Organ Behav Hum Perform 31:331-352, 1983. Assesses the validity of different statistical measures that describe decision behavior. 6. BIRNBAUM MH: Base rates in Bayesian inference: signal detection analysis of the cab problem. Am J Psychol 96:85-94, 1983. Claims that previous studies which reported that people neglect base rate information (prior probabilities) were based on inaccurate normative analyses; shows how signal detection theory implies that the likelihood ratio depends upon the base