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Democratic Electoral Coalitions

This note examines the composition of Democratic Party electoral coalitions in three states for various levels-president, governor, and senator -and the implications of interstate variations. Although all elections, except for the presidency, are waged at state and local levels, the research in the field has focused almost exclusively on national electoral coalitions and their stability.1 Actually, electoral coalitions at state and local levels are of considerable interest because (1) it is on these levels that most elections are contested; (2) party organizations are more active here; and (3) presidential elections require a plurality of votes within key states. Robert Axelrod has shown that the national Democratic Party's loose coalition forged by the New Deal remained rather stable between 1952 and 1972.2 There were some sharp short-term shifts (for example, by Catholics in 1960), but the coalition of overlapping minorities held together. His study raises some important questions. Does the support of Democratic candidates by the diverse minorities hold for elections across offices? Are there substantial variations between states? Is the Demo-