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Leptospirosis incidence in a state capital in the Western Brazilian Amazon and its relationship with climate and environmental variability, 2008-2013.

OBJECTIVE
to analyze association between environmental variables and leptospirosis incidence in the municipality of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil, 2008-2013.


METHODS
this was an ecological study of association between monthly average environmental variables and monthly leptospirosis incidence, according to generalized autoregressive score models and moving averages.


RESULTS
increases in the monthly average levels of the River Acre and days of precipitation per month were associated with a 7% increase (incidence rate ratio [RR] 1.07 - 95%CI 1.02;1.14) and a 4% increase (RR 1.04 - 95%CI 1,00;1,07) in the monthly incidence of leptospirosis, respectively; in 2013 leptospirosis incidence in the municipality was 8 times higher than in 2008 (RR 8.00 - 95%CI 4.07;15.71).


CONCLUSION
this study showed a strong increase in leptospirosis incidence, over the years studied, and positive associations with environmental variables.