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Modern and projected changes of extreme summer precipitation in the Far East of Russia

Variations of the frequency and intensity of extreme daily precipitation in summer in the southeast of the Far East Federal District of the Russian Federation, - in region with high risks of extreme seasonal floods, were studied for the period 1970- 2015 using data of 54 meteorological stations. Future changes for the period 2041-2060 were estimated using data of the global climate models HadGEM and MPI-ESM. It is shown that the observed and projected changes in frequency extreme daily precipitation events in summer are diverse and statistically insignificant when averaged for the whole study area. However, a growth of extreme daily precipitation intensity in the north of the study area and in the south of Sakhalin island is found in obserations for the recent period 2000-2015 being relative to 1970-1999. Such a tendency is projected by the middle of the 21st century according to the HadGEM and MPI-ESM models.