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Predictors of Mortality in Patients of COVID-19 Pneumonia in Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study in a Tertiary Care Hospital, Lucknow, India

Introduction: Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) which is an enveloped positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus. Initial steps of the infection involve binding of the spike protein (S) of the virus to Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-2 (ACE-2) receptor on the mucosal surfaces of various organs like lungs, kidney, heart, intestine. Pathogenesis of complications are still poorly understood. Aim: This study was designed to find out the baseline biochemical parameters at the time of admission which may predict outcome in COVID-19 patients. Materials and Methods: This observational study was conducted in a dedicated COVID-19 hospital, Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia Institute of Medical Sciences (Dr. RMLIMS), Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, from 1st July, 2020 to 30th November, 2020. A total of 109 moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia patients who required Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, were enrolled. Based on their outcome, patients were divided into two groups: “Survived” and “Expired”. Biochemical characteristics of patients were compared among the two groups using univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: On Univariate analysis Coagulation profile, Prothrombin Time (PT), International Normalised Ratio (INR), Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT) and D-Dimer values were raised significantly in the expired group. Among other acute phase reactants Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH), C-Reactive Protein (CRP), Interleukin-6 (IL-6), and Creatinine Phosphokinase-MB (CPKMB) were raised in expired group and this difference was significant statistically too. On Multivariate analysis among all acute phase reactant only IL-6 was increased significantly. All other variables were found to be non significantly associated with mortality, statistically (p-value <0.05). Conclusion: Baseline biochemical parameters have prognostic values in COVID-19 patients. Raised IL-6 levels can be viewed as an independent predictor of mortality among COVID-19 patients at the time of admission in ICU.