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Water resources, climate change and human vulnerability

It is well recognised today that climate change is affecting the Earth’s physical and biological systems, and is expected to do so on forthcoming decadal to century timescales. A need exists for useable predictions of the impacts associated with such climate change, and the likely societal responses to these. This must also be seen in the context of other drivers of global change, and be presented at suitable spatial and temporal scales, to enable prioritisation of adaptation measures which are feasible in the most vulnerable communities, countries and regions. Climate modelling is advancing, with much better simulations able to explain observed changes believed to be a consequence of raised atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Generated from ‘ensembles’ of climate model outputs, these are expected to have more robust predictive capability. Ideally, to link the biophysical and social scales, it will be necessary to characterize climate behaviour at spatial scales smaller than those of the current climate model outputs, and to include predictions of surface meteorological extremes which incorporate rainfall as well as temperature change. The challenge of this is ongoing. To gain fully from the improved climate change predictions now available, and to develop associated mitigation and adaptation strategies, well-founded socio-ecological-economic