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Some Economic Aspects of Norwegian Population Movements 1740–1940: An Econometric Study

The basic analytical viewpoint underlying this study is that variations in demographic phenomena, notably births, marriages, and migration, are caused primarily by changes in two classes of factors: economic conditions and demographic composition. The study is carried out with the help of econometric models in which variables describing economic conditions and the age structure of the population in family formation and migratory ages are assumed to be predetermined. For the purposes of this brief summary, I will concentrate on two specific aspects of the study. The first is an analysis of the determinants of aggregate births in Norway before 1865, when internal and external migration was still of small quantitative significance. Thus the object of this part of the study in effect, becomes the successful prediction of births in a closed population. A second major objective of the dissertation is the explanation of the massive emigration from Norway that took place after 1865. In the period after the United States Civil War and up to World War I, Norway lost well over 40 percent of her natural increase, the highest national per capita figure recorded during this time period save that for Ireland.