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American Landpower and the Middle East of 2030

Abstract : Strategic deliberations about the future role of American military forces in the Middle East should be based on an objective analysis of interests and threats, not bureaucratic desires. Based on consistent themes in the National Security Strategy, the United States has three enduring interests in this region: ensuring global access to energy, thwarting violent extremist networks, and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. However, the pressures of a rising youth generation, increasing global demand for oil, the difficulties of political transition, and a belligerent Iran combine to endanger these interests in the coming decades. Each of these threats can be mitigated by American efforts to promote stability and reduce conflict in this contested region. As part of the joint force, the Army is uniquely capable of addressing a number of these challenges, while also serving as a force for professionalization and partnership with the overwhelmingly ground-based militaries of the Middle East.