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Marine Climate Change in Australia Impacts and Adaptation Responses 2012 REPORT CARD Temperature

Summary Sea surface temperature (SST) surrounding Australia has undergone significant warming since the early 20 th century. Average SST for the most recent 20-year period (1992-2011) was 0.68 o C warmer than the period 1910-1929. This significant change in regionally-averaged SST is of similar magnitude to the warming of Australian air temperature (+0.74 o C) and to globally-averaged land and sea temperatures (+0.71 o C) between the same two periods. Australian region SST for every decade from 19211930 through 2001-2010 has been warmer than the preceding decade. The rate of globally-averaged temperature rise has accelerated since the mid-20 th century; similarly, for Australian waters the rate of warming was 0.08 o C/decade from 19102011 and 0.11 o C/decade from 1950-2011. Since the first Report Card in 2009, the then warmest year (1998) for Australian region SST has been superseded by that in 2010. 15 of the 20 warmest years within the 102-year instrumental record have all occurred within the last 20 years. There continues to be seasonal and spatial variations in the magnitude of SST warming around Australia, with greatest warming off the southeast coast of New South Wales and the east coast of Victoria (especially in summer) and the southwest coast of Western Australia (especially in winter). SST projections in the first Report Card were based on the CMIP3 suite of climate models. These projected, for a high emissions scenario, a ~1 o C warming (relative to 19801999) by the 2030s and ~1.5-3.0 o C warming by the 2070s, with lower rates of warming to the south of the continent and greatest warming east/northeast of Tasmania. In preparation for IPCC-AR5, results from the newly developed CMIP5 models are only just becoming available. A subset of available models for the relatively high RCP8.5 emissions pathway also indicate greatest warming off the southeast coast (~>3 o C) by the end of the 21 st century, consistent with historical trends, and off northwest Australia (~2.5 o C) with lower rates (~2 o C) off the