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Predicting spatial-temporal patterns of diet quality and large herbivore performance using satellite time series.

Adaptive management of large herbivores requires an understanding of how spatial-temporal fluctuations in forage biomass and quality influence animal performance. Advances in remote sensing have yielded information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of forage biomass, which in turn have informed rangeland management decisions such as stocking rate and paddock selection for free-ranging cattle. However, less is known about the spatial-temporal patterns of diet quality and their influence on large herbivore performance. This is due to infrequent concurrent ground observations of forage conditions with performance (e.g., weight gain), and previously limited satellite data at fine spatial and temporal scales. We combined multi-temporal field observations of diet quality (weekly) and weight gain (monthly) with satellite-derived phenological metrics (pseudo-daily, using data fusion and interpolation) to model daily weight gains of free-ranging yearling cattle in shortgrass steppe. We used this model to predict grazing season (mid-May to October) weight gains - a key management indicator - across 40 different paddocks grazed over a 10-year period (n=138). We found strong relationships between diet quality and the satellite-derived phenological metrics, especially metrics related to the timing and rate of green-up and senescence. Satellite-derived diet quality estimates were strong predictors of monthly weight gains (R2 = 0.68) across a wide range of aboveground net herbaceous production. Season-long predictions of average daily gain and cattle off-weights had mean absolute errors of 8.9% and 2.9%, respectively. The model performed better temporally (across repeated observations in the same paddock) than spatially (across all paddocks within a given year), highlighting the need for accurate vegetation maps and robust field data collection across both space and time. This study demonstrates that free-ranging cattle performance in rangelands is strongly affected by diet quality, which is related to the timing of vegetation green-up and senescence. Senescing vegetation suppressed weight gains, even if adequate forage was available. The satellite-based pseudo-daily approach presented here offers new opportunities for adaptive management of large herbivores, such as identifying within-season triggers to move livestock among paddocks, predicting wildlife herd health, or timing the grazing season to better match earlier spring green-up caused by climate change and plant species invasion.