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THE ROLE OF GENDER-TARGETED CASH TRANSFERS IN INCREASING SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

Purpose of the study: This study is conducted to assess the success of the Female Stipend Program (FSP), started in the province Punjab, Pakistan under the Punjab Education Sector Reform Program in 2003. Methodology: Panel data on household-level collected from years 2016 to 2018 is used for the analysis. The impact of cash transfers (directed towards female students in selected districts of the province) on female school enrollment in public (elementary and high) schools is measured. Enrollment growth in public schools is used as a dependent variable whereas female stipend, the number of schools, student to teacher ratio, the population of the districts, and basic facilities available in public schools are taken as independent variables. The results are obtained by employing Linear Mixed Multilevel Modeling. Main findings: All the variables, except the population of districts, are having a highly significant impact on the enrollment rate in Punjab. Female school's stipend, number of schools in the district, and the accessibility to basic infrastructural facilities have an important impact on female enrollment rate while a high student to teacher ratio negatively contributes to female enrollment rate. Furthermore, districts, where a stipend program is implemented, have higher enrollments as compared to other districts in the province. Application of the study: Outcomes of the study indicate that cash transfer programs directed towards female school enrollment are very fruitful in the case of Punjab. Therefore, such programs should be started in other provinces of the country as well. Novelty/ Originality of the study: The present study contributes to the research gap by using the largest data set available for all 36 districts of the province. To further highlight major factors contributing to high female school enrollments, the study includes school infrastructure, the population of districts, student-teacher ratio, and availability of schools in the model.


INTRODUCTION
Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) programs, directed towards underprivileged households, have become an unconventional policy mechanism throughout the world, for dealing with financial issues towards the attainment of the necessities of life (Afzal et Slater, 2011). These programs include employment creation for adults who are deprived of necessities conditional upon their labor contributions towards any government institutions. These initiatives further deal in providing cash and food to poverty-ridden households, conditional upon sending their children to schools (Barnes et al. 2011;Dubois et al. 2003). Education and human capital investment have prime importance in Sustainable Development Goals because education plays a pivotal role in accomplishing sustainable economic growth with increased living standards of the people (Fergus, 2012; Osei-Assibey, 2013). Many developing countries have been providing poor families with cash transfers under CCT programs to increase school enrollments (Cotto, 2018;Fiszbein & Schady, 2009). In poor countries, where females are deprived of basic health and educational facilities, such cash transfers help in providing these necessities to the underprivileged. These cash transfer programs can be beneficial for children especially girls' education (Appleton et al. 2008; Aslam & Kingdon, 2008;Mohamed, 2013) Concerning cash transfers for educational purposes, CCT programs can be initiated on the demand side and supply side. In case of a typical demand-side transfer, cash is allocated to the students subject to their school enrollment, attendance, and academic performance in the class. While on the supply side, cash transfers can be made to the private sector schools in rural areas, conditional upon the increase in secondary school enrollment. Furthermore, cash transfers can be on a gender basis as well to reduce the discrimination that occurs inside the households regarding the investment in human capital (Chaudhury & Parajuli, 2007).
In Pakistan, the female population is 51% of the total population. Educating females is indispensable for human capital formation and fostering economic growth (Elborgh-Woytek et al., 2013). Furthermore, in developing countries including Pakistan, a male child is preferred over a female child for educational attainment, especially in rural areas (Afzal et al. 2013). Therefore, there is a need to narrow down this gender-based educational gap. For this purpose, the government of Punjab, Pakistan, under the "Punjab Education Sector Reforms Program (PESRP)" in the year 2003 launched the "Female Stipend Program (FSP)" financed by the World Bank. The program was aimed at increasing female school enrollment in the province. Under this program, families have been provided with PKR 600 (2016) per quarter for each girl studying in 6 th -10 th standard in poor districts of Punjab. The primary objective of the present study is to assess the effect of these cash transfers on female school enrollment in Punjab, Pakistan.
The literacy rate in Punjab is 64% in 2019 which has increased from 46.6% in 1998. (Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2019-20). However, gender-based educational disparity still exists in Punjab as well. Female school enrollment is 57% while that of the male is 73%. The present study, to the best of the researcher's knowledge, is the first attempt to assess the effect of female school stipends on government sector school enrollment for Pakistan by taking data for all the 36 districts of Punjab, Pakistan. In the context of Bangladesh, Ahmed and Sharmeen (2004) analyzed the effectiveness of CCT programs on school enrollments in rural areas. They studied the impact of stipend programs on literacy rates, school dropout rates, and school enrollment rates separately. Their findings indicated that the female literacy rate improved more quickly and significantly than males'. Similarly, female school attendance rose at a faster rate as compared to that of males. Moreover, it was observed that the gross and net enrollment rates exhibited a substantial rise in the case of girls than for boys in secondary education.
In a study using household-level data for different districts in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, Ahmed and Zeshan (2014) found out that educational stipends have a positive effect on female education. In another study on rural areas of Punjab Pakistan, Masood (2015) concluded that the girls who were given cash transfers preferred to continue their schooling. Pakistan, studied the impact of investment on school infrastructure on school enrollment. They concluded that the presence of toilets in schools encouraged school enrollment especially for girls in rural regions.
In light of the existing empirical literature, it is observed that very few studies are available that assess how cash transfers influence school enrollment in Pakistan. Moreover, there is not a single study on Pakistan (to the best of researchers' knowledge) that has used district-level data in this context. The present research has tried to overcome this gap in the literature by using aggregated data on 36 districts of Punjab to determine the effect of the female stipend initiative on net school enrollment in 6 th to 10 th standard.

METHODOLOGY
The present study has taken all districts of Punjab, Pakistan as the unit of analysis. Aggregated data on enrollments by grade for all 36 districts have been taken for the years 2016 to 2018 from the Program Monitoring & Implementation Unit (PMIU).
All the 36 districts of Punjab are divided into two categories i.e. stipend and non-stipend districts. Out of these 36 districts, 16 districts are those districts in which girls are getting a stipend hence categorized as stipend districts, while other 20 districts, who are not receiving stipend at all, are categorized as non-stipend districts. Following PERSP methodology, the districts having literacy rates equal to or greater than 40 % are taken in the present study. The impact of school stipends can be measured by taking the average growth of enrollments in stipend districts relative to the nonstipend districts. The effect of female stipend programs can be interpreted as when districts offered stipends to schools for females; did these districts record an additional increase in female school enrollments in grade 6 th to 10 th relative to non-stipend districts?

Data Description
The data is collected for each district separately and is categorized at two levels. At the first level, districts are categorized as stipend recipient districts and non-stipend recipient districts. Then at the second level, schools of each district (either stipend or non-stipend) are classified as schools for males and schools for females. As we already know that only schools for females, in stipend eligible districts, are eligible for a stipend. One comparison group for schools for females in stipend districts is schools for females in non-stipend districts. Another comparison group is boy-schools in stipend districts because boys do not get any cash transfers irrespective of where their school is located.  As the stipend program is directed towards female students and female schools only, therefore, an interaction term is generated after the interaction of two dummies. The first dummy of the interaction term is generated as "district type" i.e. either it is stipend recipient district or non-stipend district. Value 1 is given to the stipend district and 0 is given to the non-stipend district. Likewise, the second dummy of the interaction term is generated as "school type" i.e. either it is a school for males or a school for females. Value 1 is given if the school is for females and value 0 is given if the school is for males. So there are four cases for the interaction terms, but the case 1, 1 i.e. when the district is stipend and schools are for the female is of our interest (Treated).

Mixed Effect Linear Regression Model:
The following model is constructed to capture the effect of the stipend program on female school enrollment.
This model is estimated using Linear Mixed Models (LMM). LMM allows for fixed effects as well as and random effects in the model. LLM is specifically used when inter-independence is observed in the data, as one arising from a hierarchical structure. For example, the data is having an interaction term that is categorized at two levels or stages. At the 1 st stage, we have categorized it according to "district type" i.e. divided into stipend and non-stipend group. And then at the second stage, it is divided based on "school type" i.e. school for males and school for females. So, as a result, it would be possible to assess that when in stipend eligible districts female students were offered stipends, did these districts experienced an additional rise in enrollments in grade 6th to 10th relative to schools for female in non-stipend districts and relative to schools for male in both stipend and non-stipend districts?

RESULTS AND INTERPRETATIONS
A random effect for "district type" and "school category" is added in the model to capture the presence of variation as a result of individual differences i.e. variation in data due to the difference in districts (stipend or non-stipend) and the difference in schools (female or male). So, it would affect the results in two ways. The first, would be a fixed effect, which would depict the impact of explanatory variables on the dependent variable and the second one would be a random effect which would just depict the variation of the dependent variable from the average mean or the fixed effect. Female School Stipend variable is added as an interaction term and can have an impact on dependent variable i.e. enrollment, only if it contains value 1 i.e. when school is for female and situated in stipend district (Female stipend school). The results above show that this variable is significantly and positively influencing enrollment rate as the probability value is less than 0.05. It means that if the school is a female school and located in a stipend district then the school enrollment rate is 26 % greater as compared to the other two comparison groups.

Fixed Effect
According to the results, numbers of schools also have a positive impact on school enrollment. School enrollment increases by 0.02% with every new school opened in the district. The population of the districts doesn't affect enrollment significantly. 2 Where; = Annual enrollment for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/non-stipend group "k". Stipend Dummy for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/non-stipend group "k". = Gender Dummy for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/non-stipend group "k".
= Gender and Stipend Dummy (interaction term) for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/non-stipend group "k".
= Number of Schools for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/nonstipend group "k".
= Student to Teacher ratio for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/non-stipend group "k". =Basic Facilities for gender "I" of district "j" of stipend/non-stipend group "k".αs = slope coefficient.. µ = error term The availability of basic infrastructures like toilet facilities, proper sanitation systems, safe drinking water, and the presence of boundary walls in public schools are significant contributors to increasing female school enrollment. So, it is interpreted as, if other factors do not change, a one-unit increase in the availability of basic facilities in public schools would cause a 9 % increase in enrollment rate.
A student-to-teacher ratio is showing a significant negative impact on enrollment growth. Keeping other variables constant if there occurs a unit increase in this ratio, then there would be a decrease in enrollment by 3.8%. The variation rate for dummy variable named "District Type i.e. district is either stipend or non-stipend" is 0.369 units, which shows that enrollment rate for districts would be almost 37% more for stipend districts than a non-stipend district.

Random Effect
The variation rate for dummy variable named "School Category i.e. school is either Female or male" is 0.090 units, shows that increase in enrollment rate of public schools would be 9% more for female schools as compared to male schools.

DISCUSSION
The study reports a strong positive influence of female school stipend programs on female school enrollment. Chaudhury and Parajuli (2007), Alam et al. (2011), and Ahmed and Zeshan (2014), also found a similar relationship between school stipend and student enrollment especially in the case of female school enrollment. Cash transfers help to ease off the financial burden on the parents and they find it easier to send their kids especially girls to school.
In the case of the impact of the population of the districts on school enrollment, the analysis remained inconclusive. Since population changes are very gradual and the population of the districts did not change significantly during the period considered for the study. There exist many studies including Simon and Pilarski (1979) Simon and Pilarski (1979), Schultz (1985), Mingat and Tan (1996)  The presence of schools in the district helps to increase female school enrollment. In developing countries, several factors influence girls' education. Burney and Irfan (1995) and Deolalikar (1993) found that one of the major factors determining female schooling is the presence of schools in nearby areas. For female students, parents usually do not allow their daughters to travel to far-off areas to get an education. Furthermore, the unavailability of schools in the nearby area increases the cost of schooling which decreases school enrollment.
In the present analysis student-teacher ratio is negatively and significantly related to school enrollment. The studentteacher ratio is an important indicator of the resources available at school. A low student-teacher ratio indicates that children can get better attention in the class. This has a better impact on children's academic achievement ( (2019), the student-teacher ratio is an important determinant of parent's decisions regarding school selection and enrollment. Parents usually prefer schools having a lower student-teacher ratio.

CONCLUSION
This research is designed to measure the effect of the FSP started under PESRP in the year 2003, on the growth of school enrollment in public schools in districts of Punjab Pakistan. The number of schools, student to teacher ratio, population, and availability of basic facilities are independent variables in the model. Using data for years 2016-18, results of the econometric model suggest that all the factors, except the population of districts, are having a highly significant impact on the enrollment rate in Punjab. Using Multilevel Mixed Effect Model, the variance in enrollment growth between stipend and non-stipend districts, and between male and female schools is also estimated. It is established that female school enrollment is higher in the districts where stipends are given to students as compared to the districts where no such stipend program is implemented. It is further found that enrollment in public schools for females has shown a greater increase as compared to public schools for males.