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On the Efficiency of Unobserved Components Models

Recently in this journal Flaig (2003) published an investigation of the structure of three time series from the Ifo Business Survey. He adapted an Unobserved Components Model to these time series. The business cycle component estimated in this way displays unusual characteristics. These characteristics and their effect on the approximation of other timeseries components can be demonstrated in a comparison with the results of a traditional method of time series decomposition.