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Crowdsourcing Economic Forecasts

Economic forecasts are often disseminated via a survey of professionals (i.e. “Consensus”). In this paper we compare and contrast the Consensus with a crowdsourced alternative wherein anyone may submit a forecast. We focus on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and find that, on average, Consensus is more accurate, but the best crowd- sourced forecasters are superior to the best Consensus forecasters. We also find that information plays a key role. When the Consensus is uncertain and herds together, the crowdsourced forecasts appear to be more accurate. Our findings provide evidence that crowdsourcing might provide a valuable supplement to traditional macroeconomic forecasts.