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African Drama: Myrdal and Progressive Institutional Change in South Africa

Like many less developed countries (LDCs), South Africa has recently enacted neoliberal reforms and has thus earned high praise. For instance, The Economist (2001b) pronounced that "the government has done lots of things right. It has reduced the national budget deficit from 8 percent in 1994 to a planned 1.9 percent this year. ... Inflation, too, has fallen, from 9 percent in 1994 to about 6 percent today. The disciplined fiscal and monetary policies responsible, coupled with measures to open up and liberalize the economy, have brought South Africa investment-grade status." Yet the boom that was supposed to follow did not occur. The country has a relatively large manufacturing sector, solid infrastructure, substantial natural resources, and a fairly well educated populace, indicating much potential for development. Unfortunately, the legacy of inequality along racial lines is generating crime, violence, and instability, threatening to push the country into a downward spiral. Meanwhile, neoliberal policies are contributing to the erosion of the manufacturing base, while failing to stimulate growth and reduce inequality. This paper applies Gunnar Myrdal's analytical concepts of backwash and spread effects to interpret these trends in South Africa. These effects are regarded as intimately interconnected in a process of circular and cumulative causation. Depending on their relative strength, the country may progress on a path of development, or it could be caught in a state of stagnancy or in a downward spiral. 1 After outlining the operation of