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Evidence theory based reliability analysis and assessment of complex systems

Uncertainties can be found everywhere, and along with the growth of systems' complexity and intelligent, their uncertainty becomes more and more pronounced. Unfortunately, uncertainty bring bad influence to system's reliability, so it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability of these large-scale systems. Due to the complexity of the systems and the limitations of the operating conditions the data and available information for the complex systems is insufficient, and the accuracy and reliability of the information also can not be guaranteed. In this paper, an evidence theory based reliability and assessment of complex system is proposed. Evidence theory can address the problem of incomplete or even conflicting information and is widely used in the study of uncertainty problems. Based on evidence theory, the disadvantages of the traditional reliability analysis method based on probability theory, such as lack credibility and accuracy, can be avoided. This paper investigates the reliability of complex systems based on evidence theory.