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FUTURE SCENARIOS IN LANGUAGE POLICY OF RUSSIA: CONCEPTUAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS

The research question of the article addresses the future of multilingualism in the polyethnic Russian Federation. The objective of the article is to systematically explore the foundations for prognostic models and methods in selected fields of language policy. We aim to develop an interdisciplinary approach to sociolinguistic prognosis on the basis of the future scenario method and, thus, to work out prognostic models and methods in language policy considering their effectiveness in regard to the language policy and planning. Sociolinguistic prognostic methods and models have been research desiderata since the development of language policy and planning. The article fills the following gaps: the lack of awareness of theoretical and practical signifi cance of language prognosis as an instrument of language policy and planning, the lack of fundamental research works on the prognostic problem due to its interdisciplinary nature, and the underdevelopment of concepts in the language scenario field. The lack of appropriate methods and models is refl ected in the hot societal debates about the language policy management. The use of prognostic models in language policy helps to develop strategies, increases the productivity of the language policy measures and supports language conflict prevention.