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A possible mechanism for El Niño‐like warming in response to the future greenhouse warming

Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a possible mechanism for the El Niño‐like warming in response to the greenhouse warming is suggested. From the coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulations with climate change scenario, it is found that the Bjerknes air–sea coupled process is a dominant contributor to the tropical Pacific response. However, it is revealed that most CGCMs commonly simulate the off‐equatorial maximum of precipitation change. It is suggested here that the off‐equatorial precipitation and the associated equatorial westerlies play a seeding role in triggering an El Niño‐like warming response. Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) experiments show that even uniform sea‐surface temperature (SST) warming leads to off‐equatorial increase in precipitation which brings equatorial westerlies, implying that these non‐uniform (off‐equatorial) responses can play a seeding role for the El Niño‐like warming pattern. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society