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A holistic simulation tool for long-term probabilistic power system reliability analysis

This paper present a holistic tool for doing long term probabilistic power system reliability analysis. It is based on a full hourly Monte Carlo simulation of component failures (lines, cables, transformers). The component probabilities are weather dependent and based on reanalysis data. The tool includes a contingency analysis module where users can specify remedial measures. The contingency analysis is solved stepwise, where a DC-approximation has been implemented as an LP-problem using PTDFs (Power Transfer Distribution Factors) to find optimal measure application. The tool has been tested for the IEEE 24 bus test system where real weather in Norway has been applied to the components.