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Improved Deep Learning Model Based on Self-Paced Learning for Multiscale Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting

Electricity loads are basic and important information for power generation facilities and traders, especially in terms of production plans, daily operations, unit commitments, and economic dispatches. Short-term load forecasting (STLF), which predicts power loads for a few days, plays a vital role in the reliable, safe, and efficient operation of a power system. Currently, two main challenges are faced by existing STLF prediction models. The first involves how to fuse multiscale electricity load data to obtain a high-performance model and remove data noise after integration. The second involves how to improve the local optimal solution despite the sample quality problem. To address the above issues, this paper proposes a multiscale electricity load data fusion- and STLF-based short time series prediction model built on a sparse deep autoencoder and self-paced learning (SPL). A sparse deep autoencoder was used to solve the multiscale data fusion problem with data noise. Furthermore, SPL was utilized to solve the local optimal solution problem. The experimental results showed that our model was better than the existing STLF prediction models by more than 15.89% in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) indicator.