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Modeling Influence on Posting Engagement: The Gaza Great Return March Analyzed on Twitter

Exposure to online participation in an online social network (OSN) is often modeled as a neighbor-to-neighbor flow. Exposure to participation shift of a neighbor in an OSN, can influence a user to shift participation and engage in posting. Since many postings on OSNs are public, exposure to participation shifts of non-neighbors can also influence one's posting engagement. Modeling local and global influence on the posting engagement of a user, we demonstrate the model on Twitter interactions related to Gaza's Great Return March (GRM) and show the effects of both local and global influence.