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Risk analysis for drought management of water resources systems

The increasing scarcity of water resources in many regions in the world reveals that the robustness of today's water supply systems may not be enhanced and conflict may not be alleviated unless optimal management based on risk analysis is considered. The present study introduces the application of an integrated risk analysis model to determine optimal management strategies that minimize drought damages and threat of water shortage. The newly developed risk model uses a global risk index, referred to as the drought risk index (DRI), as objective function when evaluating optimal management strategies and assess the susceptibility of the water supply system to drought scenarios. Genetic algorithm is used as optimal search procedure to minimize the DRI objective function by clustering the search of the optimal water supply solutions inside a defined "acceptable risk space". The application of the model to the water resources system in Fukuoka City, western Japan, was found a highly efficient tool toward an improved performance of actual water resources during drought.