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Prognostic factors for overall survival with sunitinib as first-line therapy in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC).

5042 Background: Sunitinib demonstrated superior progression-free survival (PFS; the primary endpoint) over interferon-alfa (IFN-α) as first-line mRCC therapy (NEJM 2007;356:115). Median overall survival (OS) with sunitinib compared to IFN-α was: 26.4 vs. 21.8 months (HR=0.821; P=0.051 by unstratified log-rank test; Proc ASCO 2008;26, May 20 suppl; abstr 5024). An analysis of prognostic factors for OS was performed on data from this trial.


METHODS
750 treatment-naïve mRCC patients were randomized 1:1 to receive sunitinib or IFN-α. By Cox proportional hazards model, selected pretreatment variables were evaluated univariately and in a multivariate model for each treatment arm. Multivariate models for each treatment arm were based on a stepwise algorithm with a type I error of 0.25 for entry and 0.15 for elimination. Further elimination was applied to identify variables significant at P<0.05.


RESULTS
In multivariate analysis of sunitinib patients, factors associated with longer OS include: interval from diagnosis to treatment ≥1 yr, ECOG PS of 0, lower corrected calcium, absence of bone metastases, lower lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), and higher hemoglobin (Hgb) ( table ). For the IFN-α treatment arm, male gender, absence of bone or lymph node metastases, lower LDH, higher Hgb, lower corrected calcium, higher neutrophil count, and interval from diagnosis to treatment ≥1 yr were associated with longer OS.


CONCLUSIONS
For patients in the sunitinib treatment arm, prognostic factors identified were similar to the factors previously identified in the MSKCC risk groups (J Clin Oncol 2002;20:289). Additional prognostic factors were identified for the IFN-α arm. Further studies are warranted to independently validate these findings as well as to identify tumor-specific prognostic factors. [Table: see text] [Table: see text].