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A Nonlinear Model for Portfolio Scale Decision-making Considering Project Interdependences

As project activities enter into the large scale era, the complexity becomes an outstanding problem of the modern project portfolio decision management, where the project interdependences are treated as one of the most important driving force. Based on a multi-dimensional classification framework for project interdependences, a new concept of project niche is generated for modeling the interdependent relationship between projects. Then by employing the classic Lotka-volterra equation, a nonlinear dynamic model for the portfolio scale decision-making is proposed considering asymmetric project interdependences. According the discussion about the model solution and its stability, it is indicated that project interdependences have great effects on the complexity and stability of the project portfolio decision-making system, and the realization of the portfolio objectives is benefited by exploring cooperation, avoiding excessive competition and improving coordination.