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Modeling Regional Economic Resiliency to Earthquakes : A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Lifeline Disruptions

1 The authors are, respectively, Professor and Head, Department of Energy, Environmental, and Mineral Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802; and Economist, Demand Analysis Office, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA 95814. The research in this paper was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (Grant No. 9802151), and by several grants from the NSF-sponsored Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research. The authors acknowledge the contribution of Chunsheng Shang, Gauri Guha, Ram Ranjan, and Debo Oladosu for research related to the paper. We are also grateful to Stephanie Chang for providing us with background information on the Portland Bureau of Water Works network and sharing with us results of her analysis study of network vulnerability, direct economic impacts of earthquake disruptions, and maintenance and mitigation costs. Helpful comments on an earlier draft were provided by Ann Fisher. The views expressed in this paper of those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the positions of any sponsoring organization or organizations to which the authors are affiliated. The authors are solely responsible for any errors and omissions. ABSTRACT