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Construction and application of water security early‐warning model

Ensuring water security means meeting the water demand required to sustain human activity. This study constructs an early‐warning model of water resources security based on water resource carrying capacity, which consists of water demand predictions and early‐warning standards. Taking China as an example, we compare expected water demand in 2030 with the maximum available water (water use red line) regulated by the government. The results reveal that some regional water demand will surpass their own red line at the provincial level, whereas at the national level, total water use is not expected to exceed the red line control of 700 billion m3. This approach provides a valuable method for tracking the future water demands of human activity. An early‐warning model for water resources contributes to identifying strategies for expanding water security in the face of drought and other water hazards and is applicable to other regions.