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Internal divisions cloud Sudan’s future


 Subject
 Outlook for a political transition in Sudan.
 
 
 Significance
 Following the April 11 ouster of President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan faces a period of great uncertainty. The Transitional Military Council (TMC) is negotiating with the main opposition Declaration of Freedom and Change (DFC) forces over a joint transition arrangement, but talks are deadlocked and reaching agreement on the balance of power may prove challenging. 
 
 
 Impacts
 Protests will continue, both in the form of the growing sit-in in Khartoum, and new nationwide marches, strikes and civil disobedience.
 Tensions within the security forces may lead to changes in the TMC, or even armed clashes.
 If political dialogue falters, revenge or spoiler violence may break out.
 Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will likely intensify efforts to entrench TMC rule.
 Bashir-era figures may try to gain influence over the TMC, at least to protect their personal assets and minimise exposure to prosecution.
