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A Simple Nonlinear Predictive Model for Stock Returns

In this paper, we propose a simple approach to testing and modelling nonlinear predictability of stock returns using Hermite Functions. The proposed test suggests that there exists a kind of nonlinear predictability for the dividend yield. Furthermore, the out-of-sample evaluation results suggest the dividend yield has nonlinear predictive power for stock returns while the book-to-market ratio and earning-price ratio have little predictive power.