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Analysis of electricity supply worth on generation system reliability

Long-range generation system planning is an essential task of a vertically integrated utility. It concerns investment of new power plants. However building a new power plant in Thailand may face difficulties from economical problem and social acceptance. Electricity import from neighboring countries is therefore an important option to be considered. However the appropriate cost of the imported electricity should be determined. In this paper, an algorithm based on probabilistic method is developed to analyze worth or value of imported electricity. The obtained value could be viewed as a limited value for negotiating long-term price of electricity to be bought from power producers and neighboring countries.