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Abolishing the One-Child Policy: Stages, Issues and the Political Process

ABSTRACT Based on a documentary, statistical and discourse analysis, plus 30 years of interviewing in China, this article investigates the demo-political background of China’s return to a two-child policy in 2015. It pinpoints the contested core issues that fueled a bitter polemic on the future course of Chinese birth policy and continue to fester in ongoing controversies. The article briefly reviews earlier challenges to China’s controversial one-child policy since its inception in 1979/80, details the conflicts and mechanisms shaping the birth planning regime since 2000, and examines the role played by academic counseling, bureaucratic infighting, lobbying and civil society in the about-turn. Comparing birth planning to other policy arenas, it concludes with a discussion of societal and think-tank impact on Chinese political decision-making.