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Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

The Yellow River Basin is a typical arid and semi-arid area, which is very sensitive to climate change. In recent years, it has become the area with the greatest shortage of water resources in China. In this study, a new two-way coupling model of land surface and hydrology has been explored to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for making better management countermeasures and strategies to cope with climate change in the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that: (1) the annual average precipitation in the basin was 470.1 mm, which was higher in the lower reaches than in the middle and upper reaches. The annual average temperature is 5.8 °C. The entire basin showed a remarkable warming speed. The annual average pan evaporation is 1067.3 mm showing a downward trend throughout the basin; (2) from 1987 to 2009, the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change has not fluctuated by more than 5%. Since 2010, the precipitation caused by climate factors has increased runoff by 12~15%. The impact of land use change on runoff has been increasing annually. The influence of projects on runoff change was the leading factor of runoff reduction in the Yellow River Basin, with the contribution rate around 50%; and (3) for every 10% decrease in precipitation, the runoff decreases by 13~15.7%. When the temperature rises by 1.0 °C, the runoff decreases by 2.1~4.2%. The runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was most sensitive to precipitation and temperature changes. This showed that the runoff in the plateau and mountainous areas were highly sensitive to climate change.