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The Cognitive Claims for Computer Models

In Urban Dynamics, Forrester presents a computer model capable of projecting the growth and decay of cities. The author defends the use of computer models by making the strong epistemological claim that causal analysis of complex social systems is doomed to failure because the way such systems work is counterintuitive. It is my contention, however, that counterintuitive results of a computer model have only heuristic value. Such results by themselves do not constitute valid knowledge.