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1981 census of India: some implications for family planning.


 India's 1981 census disclosed a population of 684 million with an addition of 136 million during the 1971-81 decade and a decadal growth rate of 24.75% or 2.21% annually, showing little change from the previous decade. An important feature brought out by the 1981 census is that the problem of rapid population growth in India is essentially a regional problem. The growth rates among the 15 major States (those with a population in excess of 10 million) has varied from 17.23 in Tamil Nadu to 32.36 in Rajasthan. In 7 States the growth rate has increased creating a higher momentum to population growth. The implications of the 1981 census for policy action are both at the national level and at the State level. In States where the growth rate has dropped the prime explanation is generally fertility. The 1981 census growth rate brings into focus the different combinations of birth and death rates in different States indicating different phases of demographic transition. At the national level, set against the goal of net reproductive rate (NRR) = 1 (implying a birthrate of 21 and a death rate of 9.2), the trend in the birthrate during the 2nd quinquennium of the 1970s is to plateau around 33/1000. The drop in the birthrate from 40+ to 33/1000 has been brought about through a family planning program largely based on sterilization and accepted by high parity and older couples. During the past few years the contraception level has been plateauing at 23%. If a further and continuous decline in fertility is to be realized, the family planning program needs a redirection towards younger couples with increased emphasis on spacing methods while maintaining the targeted levels of sterilization. This requires a change in strategy. As has been demonstrated in countries in Asia and Latin America, spacing methods are particularly suited to a community based delivery system with the government ensuring adequate and continuous supply of contraceptives. The 2nd stage of fertility decline in India requires that family planning during the 1981-91 decade should be made consistent with the needs and economic well-being of the people. Development must be increasingly population oriented. To indicate what type of developmental activity is to be assigned priority in conjunction with the family planning program, the 15 major States are classified on a demographic transition scale, based on the vital rates for 1980. Class E States in the early stage of transition require a strengthening of family planning and health programs. States in the middle level of transition require that their family planning programs focus on quality and outreach in rural areas. A progressive record of socioeconomic development along with family planning is required in states poised for completion of their demographic transition.
