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Cost Breakeven Analysis of Cis-lunar ISRU for Propellant

Human missions to Mars require hundreds of tonnes of propellant in space. Lunar ice has been suggested as a potential source for the production of that propellant. This study answers the question: should lunar-derived propellants be used for human Mars missions, independent of any ongoing lunar mission? A parametric model was developed to assess the costs of delivering propellant to cis-lunar space from Earth as compared to the cost of producing that propellant on the lunar surface and delivering it to cis-lunar space. This study found that lunar-derived propellants are more expensive than Earth-launched propellant based on current estimates of capabilities and costs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to show that significant improvement in capabilities relative to projected performance are necessary to achieve cost parity with Earth-launched propellant. While there may be benefits to using lunar in-situ resource utilization to support lunar missions, and while a lunar infrastructure may someday exist that could supply propellant, this study indicated that supporting human missions to Mars is not a sufficient reason to develop and deploy a lunar propellant production capability.