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Can China Achieve its CO2 Emission Mitigation
Target in 2030: a System Dynamics Perspective

To predict the feasibility of whether China can achieve an up to 65% of carbon emissions intensity (CEI) reduction goal from 2005 levels by 2030, we performed dynamic simulations and predictions of China’s CO2 emissions at the national scale from a system dynamics perspective. More specifically, we developed a system dynamics model based on LMDI analysis to simulate and estimate CO2 emissions under 10 different scenarios in China during 1991-2030. The result shows that China’s CEI will decrease by 67.86-84.63% in 2030 compared to the 2005 level, which means that China will be able to meet the emission reduction goal by 2030, and China’s CO2 emissions will peak sometime between 2020 and 2025. In addition, the quantitative evidence suggests that transforming the energy structure will make a significant contribution to CO2 emissions reduction. As the proportion of renewables increases, CO2 emissions decrease in terms of both scale and peak value and peaks earlier. So, the findings also indicate that the optimization for energy structure by replacing fossil fuels (especially coal) with renewables at a suitable growth rate can promote the coordination between economic growth and CO2 emissions mitigation.