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Modeling public opinion over time and space: Trust in state institutions in Europe, 1989-2019

The dynamics of political trust remain understudied, largely due to challenges associated with the comparability of data from different survey projects. Relying on Bayesian multilevel Item Response Theory models applied to data from 13 cross-national survey projects, we estimated levels of political trust in 27 European countries between 1989 and 2019. To improve the quality of estimates and correct for the differences in survey sample representativeness, we applied poststratification by sex, age, and education. We describe trajectories of political trust in Europe finding support for the thesis about trendless fluctuations in trust rather than any clear long-term tendency, with substantial differences between countries and European regions. In line with prior research, we find larger differences in political trust by education level than by sex or age.