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A Synthetic Comparator Approach to Local Evaluation of School-Based Substance Use Prevention Programming

We propose a method for creating groups against which outcomes of local pretest–posttest evaluations of evidence-based programs can be judged. This involves assessing pretest markers for new and previously conducted evaluations to identify groups that have high pretest similarity. A database of 802 prior local evaluations provided six summary measures for analysis. The proximity of all groups using these variables is calculated as standardized proximities having values between 0 and 1. Five methods for creating standardized proximities are demonstrated. The approach allows proximity limits to be adjusted to find sufficient numbers of synthetic comparators. Several index cases are examined to assess the numbers of groups available to serve as comparators. Results show that most local evaluations would have sufficient numbers of comparators available for estimating program effects. This method holds promise as a tool for local evaluations to estimate relative effectiveness.