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Does Stalking Behavior Improve Risk Prediction of Intimate Partner Violence?

ABSTRACT The present study investigates whether stalking is associated with recidivism risk among IPV offenders and incrementally adds to the predictive validity of existing validated risk measures for predicting recidivism of intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetrators. Using 226 police-reported cases of IPV, the criminal histories of the perpetrators in these cases were examined, and perpetrators were categorized based on their stalking histories. Stalkers and non-stalkers were then compared on their risk scores, and survival analyses were conducted to determine if stalking incrementally improved prediction of recidivism outcomes over and above the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) and a modified version of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA). We found that the SARA significantly differed between stalking and non-stalking perpetrators, but no difference emerged when we examined the ODARA score and recidivism outcomes. We found that stalking did not incrementally increase predictive validity for recidivism outcomes over and above the modified SARA and ODARA. Our findings challenge policies that regard stalking as a risk factor for future IPV and explore how police services may better allocate resources in cases of intimate partner stalking.