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A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events

AbstractA new system for attribution of weather and climate extreme events has been developed based on the atmospheric component of the latest Hadley Centre model. The model is run with either observational data of sea surface temperature and sea ice or estimates of what their values would be without the effect of anthropogenic climatic forcings. In that way, ensembles of simulations are produced that represent the climate with and without the effect of human influences. A comparison between the ensembles provides estimates of the change in the frequency of extremes due to anthropogenic forcings. To evaluate the new system, reliability diagrams are constructed, which compare the model-derived probability of extreme events with their observed frequency. The ability of the model to reproduce realistic distributions of relevant climatic variables is another key aspect of the system evaluation. Results are then presented from analyses of three recent high-impact events: the 2009/10 cold winter in the United K...