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A Novel Link Error Prediction Model for OFDM Systems with HARQ

This paper presents a link error prediction model capable of accurately predicting the block error ratio in OFDM systems with hybrid ARQ. The modeling of both the channel coding and the combining of the retransmissions solves many of the issues with present models. Our model is based on accumulated conditional mutual information, mutual information effective SNR averaging, and simulated AWGN performance curves. As a consequence, our model is fading-insensitive and takes into account the non-ideality of rate matching. The model can be applied to any OFDM system that utilizes rate matching as a means to achieve adaptive modulation and coding and HARQ. We demonstrate the application of our model in LTE and simulate its accuracy. The whole simulation environment together with the results of this paper are made available for download at our homepage.