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Prospects for Individual Economies

Our current forecast for the unemployment rate is broadly in line with that of the Federal Reserve. We see the unemployment rate falling gradually to reach about 61⁄2 per cent in early 2015. The interest rate assumptions underlying our current forecast are also in line with the Federal Reserve. However, we continue to maintain that the Fed’s projections for GDP growth are extremely optimistic. The central tendencies of the forecasts of the Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents range from 2.8–3.2 for 2013 and 3.3–4 for 2014. It is difficult to see how this can be achieved unless driven by a significant expansion, rather than consolidation, of fiscal policy and a boom in investment that goes well beyond our current forecast.