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Ensemble Data Assimilation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

Abstract : The primarily objectives of the proposed work are as follows: (1) Further develop the COAMPS-EnKF data assimilation system for tropical cyclone initialization capable of effectively assimilating airborne Doppler radar and satellite observations as well as data from conventional surface and sounding networks. (2) Implement a pseudo ensemble data assimilation system for COAMPS that is capable of ingesting flow-dependent background error covariance for tropical cyclone initialization without performing a computationally expensive online ensemble forecast. (3) Develop quality control and data thinning procedures for COAMPS-EnKF by implementing successful strategies from the preexisting PSU WRF-based EnKF data assimilation system (WRF-EnKF). (4) Explore the practical use of different observing strategies in predicting tropical cyclones, including the assimilation of droposondes, radar, airborne and spaceborne observations using ensemble-based data assimilation systems.