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Growth modelling and the management of urban sprawl: Questioning the performance of sustainable planning policies

The management of land resources, particularly the role of planning regulations, is critical in defining what land can be used in urban development – and this throws up certain key questions: How can one best manage land resources available? How can one address future urban development needs on the basis of existing land from a sustainable perspective? In this article we propose to question the extent of planning theories in the light of concrete urban development using land availability information. By using comprehensive national data we explore the case of Luxembourg, a small European country facing exacerbated pressures for metropolitanization. We use scenarios that go from a lesser to a greater degree of sustainability in order to project and articulate different configurations of land consumption based on a critical literature review (Smart Growth, New Urbanism, and transit oriented development (TOD)). We explore how modelling might be used to help inform spatial planning for urban growth. This framework is intended as an approach that would be applicable to other urban settings by using data that can be found in any typical municipal authority along with implementation in a geographical information system (GIS). The results create a tool which is useful for planning, monitoring or forecasting land consumption. The results also clearly show the limited impact of planning practices in terms of sustainability using land availability.