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EXTREME HURRICANE WINDS IN THE UNITED STATES

The rarity of severe coastal hurricanes implies that data are sparse and likely unreliable for empirical modelling. Extreme value theory provides a framework for statistical modelling rare wind events and a Bayesian approach allows the inclusion of measurement error and other sources of uncertainty. The utility of the Bayesian approach for modelling the mean number of coastal hurricanes is shown in Elsner and Jagger (2004). But, because parameter estimates in extreme value analysis are sensitive to rare events, the ability to include long historical records is particularly important. Here we are interested in estimating the upper limit of hurricane wind speeds after landfall. The goal is to demonstrate the usefulness of the Bayesian approach for this purpose.