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A new methodology for strategic assessment of transnational threats

ABSTRACT Transnational threats including organised crime and terrorism pose serious physical and national security concerns, and have significant economic and social costs. Despite these widely recognised harms, there is limited literature on using strategic intelligence resources to understand and assess transnational threats to enable action to reduce them. Whilst there is growing consensus that national security and national law enforcement intelligence challenges are moving closer together – especially in relation to transnational threats – there is very little theory or practitioner guidance. This article presents an applied national law enforcement case study; the provision of strategic intelligence assessments to senior decision-makers of the Australian Federal Police intended to improve decision-making. During this case study, practitioners drew on national security intelligence approaches and analytical techniques to produce strategic assessments of transnational threats. The case study addressed challenges raised in the literature as obstacles to effective strategic intelligence, including ambiguity relating to the role of intelligence in the criminal environment, a broad range of divergent threat types and the need to demonstrate value of strategic intelligence for decision-makers. This has broader applicability in different jurisdictions and on different topics due to the focus on consultation, engagement and collaboration alongside traditional intelligence processes. Given the lack of literature in the field, it makes a contribution to understanding and developing best practice in strategic intelligence as applicable to national policing and security.