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How Does Stock Market React to Dividend Surprises? Evidence from Emerging Markets of India and Russia

ABSTRACT In this article the authors empirically investigate information content of dividends announcements and average reaction of emerging markets of India and Russia to dividend surprises on the postcrisis period 2010 to 2014. The study applies an analysts’ expectations-based approach rarely used in academic literature. The authors conclude that the Russian market on average reacts negatively to good and bad dividend surprises; good dividend surprises on average trigger positive abnormal returns on Indian stocks, whereas bad and no surprises are associated with negative reactions of the Indian market. Results of the study are discussed from the perspective of dividend signaling theory, market efficiency, and investor behavior.