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China ’ s external surplus is dwindling , with repercussions for its Asian trading partners Malhar Nabar

For the past five years, the global economic news has often featured declining numbers: asset prices, down; employment, down; industrial production, down. Add to this list China’s external surplus. The world’s second-largest economy has seen a key measure of its surplus with trading partners—the current account balance, which nets payments to foreigners and income from abroad—drop from $412 billion, or 9.1 percent of GDP, in 2008 to $202 billion, 2.8 percent of GDP, in 2011 (see Chart 1). Falling numbers generally reflect troubled economic times. But could the decline in China’s external surplus instead be welcome news and a sign that its economy is rebalancing—away from exports toward stable, domestically driven growth? If that is the case, then the rest of the Asian economies will have to adjust because they have become so closely linked to China.