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Dependent, independent, and pseudo‐independent protection layers in risk analysis

Risk analysis is an important tool to provide support for various risk management decisions in hazardous industries. For the last decade, the semiquantitative Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) has been the dominating risk analysis technique in the US process industry. One basic assumption in LOPA is that all the protection layers are independent from each other and from the initiating cause; otherwise, no risk reduction credit should be taken in the LOPA. However, many processes do have protection layers, which are dependent to some extent. For these systems, assuming independency may be too optimistic, whereas disregarding the partial risk reduction afforded from a partially dependent protection layer is pessimistic.