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Solar buildings in Austria: Methodology to assess the potential for optimal PV deployment

A high rate of integration of distributed photovoltaic systems (PV) may cause problems in the distribution grid. We propose a methodology to spatially and temporally analyze the potential reverse load in the distribution grid of Austria. The goal lies in determining the maximum generation of PV with no investments into grid enforcements. First, we use measured load profiles for households and simulate stochastic load profiles for commercial consumers. We combine the generated load profiles with data on PV output to determine the net demand load profiles at 1 km2 grid. Thirdly, we study the effects of a large scale implementation of rooftop PV on the energy system using the JRC EU TIMES model. We find that (excluding night hours) on average in 9% of the hours supply exceeds demand, differing between 0% and 60% depending on the grid cell. When only including household load profiles, surplus production increases to 23%. This suggests to giving priority to decentralized PV development in areas with a higher share of commercial consumers. Lastly, we show that a large scale deployment of distributed PV leads to reduced imported electricity.