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Scaling of instability timescales of Antarctic outlet glaciers based on one-dimensional similitude analysis

Abstract. Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine
ice-sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West
Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier
(PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during
at least the last 2 decades. While other regions in Antarctica
have the topographic predisposition for the same kind of
instability, it is so far unclear how fast these instabilities would
unfold if they were initiated. Here we employ the concept of
similitude to estimate the characteristic timescales of several
potentially MISI-prone outlet glaciers around the Antarctic
coast. Our results suggest that TG and PIG have the fastest response
time of all investigated outlets, with TG responding about 1.25 to 2
times as fast as PIG, while other outlets around Antarctica would be
up to 10 times slower if destabilized. These results have to be
viewed in light of the strong assumptions made in their
derivation. These include the absence of ice-shelf buttressing, the
one-dimensionality of the approach and the uncertainty of the
available data. We argue however that the current topographic
situation and the physical conditions of the MISI-prone outlet
glaciers carry the information of their respective timescale and
that this information can be partially extracted through a
similitude analysis.
