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Exogenous factors matter when interpreting the results of an impact evaluation: a case study of rainfall and child health programme intervention in Rwanda

Public health interventions are often implemented at large scale, and their evaluation seems to be difficult because they are usually multiple and their pathways to effect are complex and subject to modification by contextual factors. We assessed whether controlling for rainfall‐related variables altered estimates of the efficacy of a health programme in rural Rwanda and have a quantifiable effect on an intervention evaluation outcomes.