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Global Imbalances and the Pretence of Knowing Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Global imbalances remain a key challenge for the world economy. In this regard, it has often been argued that insufficient exchange rate adjustment prevents their dissolution. Obviously, such a line of reasoning crucially depends on the methodologies used for assessing the ‘fair value’ of a currency. This paper looks specifically at estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEER) and shows that these are highly sensitive to the chosen assumptions. The present study cautions against using such models too mechanistically and giving too much confidence to the precision of obtained magnitudes of misalignment.