Thursday, February 12, 2009

BC Liberals internal polling shows them 9% behind New Democrats - Dave Hayer, Pat Bell, Shirley Bond headed for defeat, even Kevin Falcon in trouble

UPDATE - Mustel poll shows dramatically different results - BC Liberals ahead of NDP by 16% with 52% to 36% lead.


Internal BC Liberal Party polling results obtained just days ago have created a panic amongst cabinet ministers and MLAs - because the poll shows that the BC Liberals are 9% points behind the New Democratic Party, according to a very reliable source.


Also headed for defeat - Surrey-Tynehead MLA Dave Hayer, who allegedly trails the NDP in his riding by 18%.




If true, the internal BC Liberal polling is another indication of a volatile political climate in the province.

Ipsos-Reid reported in November 2008 that the BC Liberals were at 44% versus the NDP at 35% and the Greens at 16%.

A Mustel poll in November had the Liberals at 44%, the NDP close behind at 42% and the Greens at 12% - but a more recent January Mustel poll put the Liberals up to 47%, the NDP down to 33% and the Greens at 16%.

Then there's the Angus Reid Strategies poll - which on November 15 put the NDP ahead at 44% against the Liberals with 39% and the Greens with 11%.

That result followed on the heels of the NDP winning two Vancouver by-elections, with Spencer Herbert taking previously Liberal-held Vancouver-Burrard and Jenn McGinn retaining Vancouver-Fairview for the NDP, formerly held by now-mayor Gregor Robertson.

An August 2008 Angus Reid Strategies poll also had the NDP ahead, by a margin of 41% to 38%, with the Greens at 14%.

Ahead? Behind? It's anyone's guess with anyone's poll but one thing is certain - if the BC Liberal Party's own internal polling shows then 9% behind with an election 89 days away, get ready for a lot of government announcements - and a lot of panic.



Anonymous said...

Two factors will make sure no matter what happens before election night, Gordon Campbell will be re-elected Premier of BC for a 3rd term.

#1: Carole James is a "leader" of what party, where?

#2: "WE ONLY CHEAT WHEN WE CAN'T WIN" . . . official motto of the Liberal Party of Canada and the BC Liberal Party.


Anonymous said...

We have 1.5 million Ex-Lax unflavoured pills that say 350,000 NDPers won't make it to the polls on election night . . . The Committee to Re-Elect the Premier (CREEP)

Gary E said...

An internal poll with these results kind of makes a person wonder just how the official pollsters of canwest come up with their numbers.

It must be real disconcerting for the liberals. And Bill is right. Watch for a lot of announcements soon. The problem is that virtually every promise they have made since 2001 have been either broken or reduced to ashes. And I allege their whole problem lies with their leader.

Comes election time the question for the liberals in each riding on everybodys lips should be "what has your party done for the voters, the people who elected you?
And if the answer comes back anything other than "nothing" then you are being lied to again.

Anonymous said...

Bill, I recall Alex Tsukamis also had a blog post reporting a "well sourced" opinion poll, just prior to the Vancouver municipal election, claiming that Peter Ladner was leading Gregor Robertson by several percentage points!

I also recall that being a shocker and it didn't make any sense and the reality on voting day showed a substantially reversed spread.

That should be your biggest clue. In 2005, that was the Libs third best result with a 61.6% to 28.7% margin.

For the NDP to now be "tied" in that riding, the NDP would have to be leading the Libs provincially by ~ a 20% margin.

A 23% turnaround from the Mustel poll, just a few weeks ago, is also unheard of and frankly, deosn't make any sense.

Anonymous said...

Please all you voters out there... Do you want more corruption, more theft, and more lies? Then vote gordo. Remember, he is the only elected drug abusing premier, and also convicted of same. He is evil, and a compulsive lier.Give us back our province! Remember that in May 09.

Anonymous said...

Bill, just another observation.

You were once a political party strategist.

With 85 ridings, would the NDP target polling toward individual safe ridings such as Vancouver-Hastings, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, etc.? Or just swing ridings?

I just can't see Libs conducting internal polling on its 3rd safest seat in 2005 as well as Surrey-Tynehead, which is also relatively safe, and the newly configured riding and now relatively safe Lib riding of Kamloops-South Thompson, where the Libs would have won by a relatively safe margin of ~3,400 votes in 2005.


Anonymous said...

Looks like the Best Place on Earth might get even better after May 12!

Anonymous said...

Stranger things have happened. Watching question Period today and debate on Bill 48 should turn even the most avid Liberal supporter away. But it's early days and Gordo and friends will be throwing out money. To watch his performance today at some VANOC deal paid by all of us to the tune of around one million dollars was a indication that he will do anything to stay in the limelight.
Hopefully the taxpayers will remember who messed up big time with the economy as it weakened and the big shot money handler Gordo said so many times. We will not have a deficit

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

NDPS voter efficiency still isnt that great. They would have to win big if they were going to take government.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7.19 pm---Hi Luke

Dave Hayer is finished in Surrey,Liberals lied about the hospitals for too long.

Corrigans have put the kiss of death on BC Liberals in Burnaby.

Boo Hoo Falcon has been fibbing his face off,people notice.

John Les is toast in chilliwak

Ida Chong and Ron Cantelon and Murray Coell are all but done on Vancouver island.

Barry Penner is history and Ian Black will get the sack.

Don`t forget that Vicki Huntington is a lock in Delta,rumour has it that that Gordon Campbell in point grey presently it is a toss-up.

You can only shit on the public,fib,hide,conceal,and sell off so many provincial assets before you get the heave-ho

Anonymous said...

But how could the NDP possibly be ahead in the polls? Those "Vote smart BC" ads on CanWest Global assure us that the NDP sign is wearing a bag over its head because the NDP is the "wrong party" and "Carol James" is the wrong leader. Could those ads possibly be not telling us the truth and still be broadcast on CanWest Global?

Anonymous said...

Could this not be a Liberal ploy to try 'n' get the party faithful riled up? Kind of like warriors going to battle beating on their own shields.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 6:17:

Please go lie down somewhere and try to sleep it isn't helping...

1) I have NEVER cited a poll where Peter led Gregor by "several" percentage points. That's just plain fffing horse shit and has been repeated on Frances' blog by other ignoramuses with reading comprehension issues. I was shown a poll at the office of an ectremely prominent player in the Vancouver civic scene, who was not connected to the NPA.

She would not give me the poll so I only cited what I took notes on. Otherwise, I would have released it in it's entirety. The poll, with all various sections blended, had Peter Ladner up by THREE points.

This was right after the "Fairgate" nonsense when Gregor had not yet apologized and could keep his message about as straight as a yakisoba noodle. The Olympic Village fiasco was not yet manifest.

Nor, at that time, had Peter yet dared the electorate not to vote for him: Remember? "I'd rather lose an election than talk about the (in-camera) Millennium meeting" Also, at the same time I viewed this poll, internal Vision numbers were showing Gregor dipping very badly over so-called 'Fairgate' (much ado about nothing) and only about SIX points ahead.

Where is the massive discrepancy when the margin of error was three?

2) You need to learn how to read polls: It is NOT necessary for the NDP overall number to rise so significantly for Kevin to be almost neck and neck with them in Cloverdale. He has unfortunately been crapped on by the Premier, with many difficult issues and on one or two has not handled them as best as possible.

To his credit, he's admitted as much. I don't think he'll lose, but it'll be closer than last time. By much. I know Surrey very well, as I used to live there and Kevin's demographic has shifted with the new constituency etc. Please learn to understand polling.

3) By the same margin, I do not believe the Mustel poll, that you grip as gospel. The major questions were not released verbatim along with other 'inside' details and it was done by West Van MLA Joan McIntyre's former business partner.

'Nough said.

4) It's TSAKUMIS, not Tzatziki, not Tsunami (well, maybe sometimes..), not Tsumakis, not Tsa-kiss-my-ass, and most certainly not Tsukamis!!!

TSAKUMIS. Get used to it. It'll be around for a long time.

5) This election is the NDP's to lose, period. I have been saying this for over a year, with my friends and colleagues in the media slowly coming around to the realization that 'The Groin' is HATED.

That his finding religion in First Nations and environmental issues was all window dressing and that he will be lucky to win his own riding. For the most part, he has a tired team of dittoheads and sycophants.

Understand something. Because of all the trillions being pumped into the economy, you will see a small uptick or even money, provincially, by the time the election comes around...but not enough for either the NDP to claim total negligence on the part of the government or the govt to be able to claim that they did it all. So it will be even on that one--the best and perhaps only plank the govt has.

The Olympics maths manipulation is HUGE and the fraud of spending billions on this nonsense when people are hungry, homeless, dying on the streets and unable to get proper care for their kids or parents, will be a combined major problem for 'The Groin'.

The NDP bogey (wo)man scenario will NOT work.

And thus, my darlings, it will come down to a matter of do you want another four years of 'The Groin'...

It think that's a very simple answer...

A huge swath of otherwise Liberal (read: center right voters, like me) will stay home--period, rather than support a govt led by a man whose friends have been at the trough, unrestrained for almost the entire time of his Premiership, and whose arrogance across the board should be enough to do him in.

Then again, the idiots in the James silo puled another boner this morning by going ONLY to the Sun, of all places, to release their platform.

Exclusively to the Sun , eh...

I'll remember that...on on a day when the anniversary of the Olympics is announced. Pure fffing genius.


Bill Tieleman said...

Thanks for the comments as always - now a few of my own.

I have not seen the BC Liberal polling - it's been reported to me by someone else, so I can't tell you any of the specific details.

I suspect, however, that it is provincial polling with significant enough regional breakdowns to draw some conclusions.

For example, I very much doubt that there is a large sample size in Surrey-Cloverdale but there might be enough of a Surrey area sample to suggest that all ridings, including Falcon's, face a tough go.

I'd be the first to say it would be shocking if Falcon were in jeopardy of losing one of the safest Liberal seats - but I'm only reporting what I heard - that the poll showed a close fight.

Kamloops is the bellwether riding for over 50 years - no party has won and election without taking Kamloops.

The Mustel poll was one of several that showed pretty different results, leading me and others to conclude there is a lot of volatility in the electorate right now.

That's not too surprising given the economic climate, Olympic costs and other factors making voters nervous and unsure of their choices.

The NDP vote IS efficient - it's one reason why they won a very large majority in 1991 with 40% of the vote and a narrow majority with 39% in 1996 - when the Liberals actually had a higher percentage but less seats.

Racking up huge margins in Richmond or Vancouver-Quilchena but losing by a few hundred in swing ridings isn't helpful for the BC Liberals.

I don't see the percentage in the BC Liberals leaking this to me or anyone else to "motivate" their troops - it would be a very dangerous ploy that could backfire and demoralize them instead.

Lastly, very funny comment on the Vote Smart BC ads on TV!

Anonymous said...

Bill I don't understand how these numbers make any sense. A 23% swing in under 2 months? Something smells fishy here....

Anonymous said...

Who leads the NDP? James likes to speak with Jenny Kwan and Mike Farnsworth at her side. All have connections to law enforcement. All take money from cop unions. The NDP cannot win an election if other elected members continue to defer to a triumvirate that acts like of wing of the Libs. Farnsworth would have made a good Socred.

NRF said...

Campbell's Liberals probably expect the Basi/Virk case will make it past election day before the prosecutor enters stays of proceedings. It's a safe bet that real Olympic deficit information will still be unknown because nobody will be able to price security costs until after the vote is complete. Lagging ticket sales and sponsorship revenue reversals can be kept from public disclosure until later.

What the Liberals cannot control though is overwhelming public disapproval of policing, crime and justice management. Don't assume that our mounting murder toll won't affect tourism. Similarly, the sudden drop in employment and the drop in petroleum and metals prices will impact quickly.

The recent Supreme Court decision wrecked the Liberal policy on fish farming and effective opposition is mounting over threats to rivers by power generation. The issues compound each other, making the Liberal Government the largest enemy of wild fisheries. The locavore movement is growing, particularly with young well educated voters who are also upset by corrupt removals of property from the Agricultural Land Reserve.

Campbell's expensive Olympic party in Richmond Thursday is a sign of his disconnect. Line up the officials, party members and children - exclude the public (except for the funding). This is the style of despots in the third world.

The pathetic Canwest Global media factory will offer full support but new media is a rising power and will not be kind to the Liberals. If the NDP can bring in star candidates and look like a serious alternative, Campbell will be in deep difficulty.

Anonymous said...


I said Tsukamis, you say Tsakumis... sorry about that, I transposed the vowels but whatever.

You say:

"I have NEVER cited a poll where Peter led Gregor by "several" percentage points."

But then you say:

"The poll, with all various sections blended, had Peter Ladner up by THREE points."

So what's the big diff??? :)

G West said...


Credit where credit's due.

That was a helluva a comment.

Well done - I expect luke will have gone for a short lie down.

Anonymous said...

Bill, the Liberal polling firm NRG - formerly western opinion research - has been doing riding polls across the province over the last several weeks. For example they polled in Saanich South about 10 days ago, Malahat Juan de Fuca about 4 days ago and Surrey about two weeks ago.

So this information fits with what is happening on the phone. But this polling isn't a large province wide poll with good regional samples. It's riding specific using the names of the Liberal and NDP candidates along with their party affiliation, most likely a 2-300 sample in each riding.

Pete's Viewpoint said...

Well, a nine point advantage is enough for electing Carole James as Premier, if it was accurate.
As much as I cannot stand Campbell, he is a brilliant politician. Do NOT under estimate this man and his party's ability to attempt to try and position themselves as the outsiders and the NDP as the enemy who would make the BC economy worse.
I think I'd want to see this polling and all of its numbers before I could conclude anything.
The NDP has to campaign positive and try to sell themselves as the party who can work together with anyone, "because we all have to work hard together to get us through this mess that Campbell created"

Anonymous said...

Sorry Bill, looks like your tip was wrong - 16% up and very few think Carle James is a good leader

It realy comes down to the economy and the BCNDP still hasn't proved that they are able to run a business, much less an economy. Plus that Green Bond idea is ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

Liberal member and donor Evie Mustel did a poll for another client in the last two weeks showing a remarkably different result.
Lib 43
NDP 40
Green 10

Pete's Viewpoint said...

Mustel polls tend to overstate Liberal and Green support. Looking over the history of their polls would suggest this bias.
I would believe that the Liberals have a slight edge, but not the 16% lead this poll indicates. Remember that the Liberals can lose an election with a lead in the polls...1996 is the proof

inthepaint said...

Bingogate, Carrierre Lumber, have-not provincial status, Fast Ferries, cooked financials, Glen Clarks sundeck and on and on and on....the barbarians are once again at the gate and would have you believe their motley band of whacked out socialists are ready for prime time....Screeching Carol James, Mike Farnworth spewing spittle as he feigns righteous indignation. This self-serving egotistical mob of school teachers, social workers and lawyers couldnt run a lemonade stand.

Anonymous said...

Bill, I don`t know what is going on with Mustel polls,750 random phone calls to west Vancouver?

Interesting that this latest poll (fiction) by Mustel has come out 3 weeks after the last Mustel poll?

Funny don`t you think? Considering Mustel polls have been coming out on average every 3 months..hmmmm

Also,while listening to CKNW today(the cutting ledge) with Palmer and Baldrey.
Besides being a shameful BC Liberal lovefest today--Vaughn Palmer interupted a caller to announce (BREAKING NEWS)---Vaughn went on tell the listeners about the MUSTEL poll!

First off,a Mustel poll stating the same results as a Mustel poll from 3 weeks ago isn`t breaking news.
Secondly,when the last Angus Reid poll came out in November(which had the NDP up by 5 points)It came out on a friday,the poll was reported in a small paper,I called CKNW news room and asked why they weren`t mentioning the Angus reid poll.
I sent them the link,I emailed the news room and called CKNW a total of 3 times,the news room said to me, "we did report the Angus reid poll on the news" I argued with the person saying that I had been listening since 7.00 am and it wasn`t mentioned once!

Time for BILL(liberal lap dog)GOOD to go to the pasture,time for Mustel to stop playing games,time,anyways,I will wait patiently for the next Angus reid poll.

OH,more breaking news on CKNW, "Gordon Campbell just got a haircut"

Bill Good,a sad,pathetic,shameless display of partisan fence sitting.

Anonymous said...

You're surprised that Kevin Falcon might be in trouble? I can't think of a more arrogant politician or one whose arrogance is so poorly justified. The guy wouldn't know a good idea if it was painted on his contact lenses.

The people of Surrey deserve proper representation.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, your vaunted Angus Reid poll showing the NDP up 5 points? It was an Internet poll. As much the net is the future, the internet polls that came out of the states during their election were the least reliable of the entire campaign.

Anonymous said...

Angus-reid polling was the most accurate of all polling outfits in the last federal election.

Just ask yourself this,where were the 750 random phone-calls in BC?

Who supplied the phone numbers for the random calls?

From what list did the phone numbers come from?

To give you an example, you could call Vancouver island and the NDP would be leading 55% to 28%

Angus-reid poll has complete data-

4 areas of the province, M or F

Ages of the voter--education of voters--

More importantly,why has Mustel come out with a poll less than 3 weeks after their last poll?

Especially since they have been coming out every 3 months?

And thanks to the poster who made the connection between Mustel polling and the west Vancouver bc liberal MLA

Anonymous said...

Jordon Bateman, a Lib insider, posts this on his Langley Politics blog today:

"That's not a scoop on your part, Bill: it's wishful thinking."

"Having seen some recent internal polling, I can tell you that the Liberal lead provincially is in double digits."

Bill Tieleman said...

Let me make a few comments on this most interesting story and today's developments.

First - I respect Evi Mustel and the Mustel Group as pollsters - and I've worked with them with some of my clients on polling, so slagging them here is just wrong.

Second - I respect Angus Reid and Angus Reid Strategies and have also worked with them on polling for my clients - very recently in fact.

The Internet polling that ARS does has been proven very accurate - they were one of only two pollsters in Canada who were almost dead on with their polling in the federal election last fall.

Third - remembers, polls are an indication of what a small segment of the public thinks - and they are not always accurate no matter how hard pollsters strive for perfection. That's why you read the "accurate 19 times out of 20" line in every poll.

Fourth - it really is wise not to put too much stock in any one poll but to look at a number and trends they may show.

As I noted, there appears to be considerable volatility amongst voters in BC. Even the Mustel poll had the NDP and Liberals essentially tied in November. And the swing between then and now amounts to the Liberals up 8% and the NDP down 6% - it's entirely possible.

Fifth - margin of error - the Mustel polls have a 3.6% margin, so the November poll may have put the two parties closer than they really were - or this poll could have them further apart than they are.

Sixth - to Anonymous 11:26 - I am proud to be a guest every Monday at 10 a.m on the Bill Good Show on CKNW and I wouldn't appear if I thought anything you say was even half-true.

I also am proud to be a regular guest questioner on Voice of BC with Vaughn Palmer on Shaw Cable and while I might disagree with Vaughn on political issues and analysis, I've always found him to be very fair - even when I worked in the Premier's Office!

So let's debate the facts.

G West said...

That wouldn't be magic christian Jordan Bateman would it?

Sorry, I've seen this fella's bona fides and they wouldn't hold a cup of water in a rainstorm.

Anonymous said...


As a regular listener of the Bill good show,I think he is a fantastic speaker,he does an excellent job as an interveiwer,most times.

Bill Tieleman, everyone knows where you are coming from,you are a NDP supporter,federaly and provincial,so when you say something or imply it everyone knows your political stance.

Now in the case of Bill Good,bill claims to be nuetrol,but that is not true,Mr. Good is so obviously BC Liberal.
Bill Good should just claim his alegience to Gordon Campbell and stop playing the role as a nuetrol.

Anonymous said...

Polls are sort of interesting, but not the endall to everything. I used to haul stuff to stats Canada years ago. Tons of it actually. I asked one senior guy just how things work. Oh we use telephones quite a lot. at the time we lived on the DTES, the poorest postal code in Canada. So how in heck do you reach the folks with no phone and even the ones with no fixed address? Oh says the wise one" we account for that by interpolating with other areas." I suggested maybe they were spending a lot of time in the Point Grey area or other secions west of Main street. I didn't laugh at the guy because he was bigger than me, but after that I figured the opinions can be slanted by the folks they call. I have only once been contacted and have been voting for a very long time. The poll that counts has a ballot box in it.

Anonymous said...

Kevin Falcon's fall from grace doesn't surprise me, he has pissed off a lot of support in South Surrey.

The 'Rail for the Valley' folks and VALTAC have been scoring decisive blows against the bird with the LRT or interurban debate.


To much info out there for Falcon to weasel with and his arrogance is doing him no favours. "You can't deceive all the people, all of the time."

Anonymous said...

Check your sources more carefully Bill, because your source makes you look like an idiot on this one. Seriously someone the Liberals actually trust within internal data is giving you info ? The fact that you look like ass today tells me your source just undermined you to a significant degree. It’s almost like your source knew the Mustel results were coming and they would make you look like nothing more than a highly partisan NDP hack who is also a wishful thinker. Good thing we all know you are not.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous: Barry Penner and John Les in trouble? If they do go down, it will be a 2001 style whipeout... considering Chilliwack hasn't gone NDP since.... never!

Anonymous said...

Polling is a very tricky game to play well.

During the recent US election I was following the pols polls on and being schooled by the very learned Nate Silver. The truth is in the details and we ain't getting no details here (it is not BT's fault the pollsters are not releasing detailed information).

I would say that folks wanting to brush up on their poll analysis could do worse than spending some time with Nate Silver.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Bill you naughty boy, check your sources more carefully because they've pissed off Jordan Baitman, the clown prince of faux commentators...and you've also managed to raise the ire of Liberal hoovers and sycophants. Who would hand Baitman anything other than a toilet brush? Yeah, he saw polling. They must have been replacing telephone polls in his neighbourhood.

Everyone should reread Anon 2:13 superb post.

You get NOTHING out of the Mustel polls, no details.

I travel the province and speak to people who have been life-time supporters of the Socreds/Liberal/center right...

The VAST MAJORITY are staying home because they are disgusted with the Premier and the way this govt has lost it's bearings. Wo is comfortable with the NDP? The same bedrock 36-40% that shows up everytime.

Bill, just wait until the day after the election and too bad some of these posters are Anon...they'd have to come with their shovels to eat crow pie!

If the Liberals pull this off, they will do so because the NDP lost it and Carole was a non-performer through the campaign and frightened disaffected Lib supporters from their couch.

The 'Green" bond idiocy was a step in this direction.

Anonymous said...


If you can’t see what everyone else sees then maybe you’re in the swamp over your eyes.

Palmer, Baldery, Good and the companies they work for are all very bias and this bias is done in a very sleazy way.....pretending to be fair.

These so-called fair-minded people are doing no favours for the public and in fact, I would say they are hurting the public and democracy.

To have differing points of view is one thing but to engage in this public betrayal by stealth is another.

I guess you must protect your pay cheque before your integrity.

Bill Tieleman said...

To Anonymous 10:25 - it's rather amusing to be lectured about integrity by someone afraid to even put a name to their comments - perhaps it's your own pay cheque you're protecting!

My comments stand and have absolutely nothing to do with my work at CKNW or Shaw Cable or anything else.

Anonymous said...

Wow, get a load of annon, 11.24 a.m (was this one from the Legislative buildings) and 9.p.m. real liebral toadie, wonder how much we taxpayers are paying him/her/ - Jo5ey

Anonymous said...

I'm sure the information you got is wrong. BC Liberals all the way!

Anonymous said...


I’m not sure what my name has to do with my statement above?

If you want your posters to be identified before posting then you should make that one of your rules. I would certainly follow those rules.

Follow the money…. the press/media in BC have given the BC liberals a lot of money in donations and I think the press/media would do what ever it takes to protect their investment.

I get it that you would like to stick up for your friends, colleagues and employers, that’s commendable.

How about you do your own poll that asks this question…

Do you think that the press/media are delivering the news to the BC public in a fair and unbiased manner?

I admire the work you do but I have to disagree with you on this one bill.

Anonymous said...

Interesting post; I'd say that the global economy is going down so fast that polls at the moment are out of date by the time they are published. Traditionally, the incumbent takes the blame for economic downturns, and this downturn is positively horrendous:!-4th-quarter-2009-Beginning-of-Phase-5-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-phase-of-global-geopolitical_a2805.html?PHPSESSID=7f96eb38796490220a969131e624599e