Iron Bowl history lesson: Don't throw the records out

Iron Bowl logo.jpg

At some point this week, someone will try to justify Auburn can beat Alabama by using a tired cliche. Something about throwing records out the window, or crushing the other team's dreams, or some variation that attempts to illustrate anything can happen in rivalry games.

This just in: Records do matter, and usually anything can't happen in the Iron Bowl. There's a reason they've played 11 games before the hype of Iron Bowl week. They serve as a sort of cushion, preparing one team's fans for the harsh reality they're probably going to lose the one game they'll be reminded they lost for 365 days. (And that's once cliche that is true in this state.)

Alabama enters Friday's game with an 11-0 record, and Auburn is 7-4. There have been 32 previous times the teams entered the Iron Bowl separated by three or more wins. The team with the better record won 29 of those games, equating to 91 percent of the time. I'll take those odds today, tomorrow and next week. The three upsets:

  • Alabama 31, Auburn 7 in 2001.
  • Alabama 17, Auburn 15 in 1984.
  • Auburn 14, Alabama 13 in 1949

The team with the better record wins the Iron Bowl more than 75 percent of the time. Since 1981, the team with the better record is 18-8 in the Iron Bowl (.692 percentage), including wins in five of the past six meetings. An 8-2 Auburn team beat 9-1 Alabama in 2005, but the Tigers were a seven-point favorite.

Based on betting lines, the Iron Bowl favorite has won 25 of the past 33 games. Not covered the line, necessarily, but won the game. Put it this way: You're more likely to see an upset in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry than you are in the Iron Bowl.

Rivalry Game Win Percentage for Team With Better Record (since 1981)

Texas-Texas A&M: .815

Clemson-South Carolina: .740

Army-Navy: .729

Georgia-Georgia Tech: .720

Alabama-Auburn: .692

Florida-Florida State: .680

Oregon-Oregon State: .675

Harvard-Yale: .674

Georgia-Auburn: .638

Michigan-Ohio State: .596

USC-UCLA: .574

Could Auburn pull the Iron Bowl upset at home Friday? To borrow another cliche, anything is possible. Spare me the cliches. If you're throwing the records out, toss them over to me.