tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post1537777457987585988..comments2020-05-14T04:33:26.107-07:00Comments on Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest: One blogger's take on the Vancouver Inventory numbersUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-3000133072718579672014-01-14T15:28:28.759-08:002014-01-14T15:28:28.759-08:00My Vancouver housing chart http://www.chpc.biz/van...My Vancouver housing chart<br />http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html<br />shows that since the pit of gloom in 2009, we have had stair stepping higher in total residential inventory and stair stepping lower in total residential sales. <br /><br />SFD Prices appear to be range bound since 2011 (except for the melt-up in 2012 by a few energetic bidders and strata unit prices depending on location and condition have been range bound since 2007. All of this has happened under a ZIRP policy; ie: &quot;low cost&quot; money has not led to the market breaking out of a stubborn range.<br /><br />I argue that the low cost of financing is no longer really a prime inducement to buy because at a fundamental level it&#39;s the principal amount borrowed that is required to be paid back. <br /><br />I think the prime mover has been sentiment; that buyers are convinced that their purchase will rise in value over a time span with a velocity that will make the cost of their principal borrowed much cheaper than rent.<br /><br />ie: it boils down to a belief that inflation will win the day.<br /><br />Unfortunately, earnings in BC look like they are flattening and have not been able to get anywhere close to &quot;inflating&quot;.<br />http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html<br /><br />Perhaps the recent drop in the CA$ will be a catalyst for rising earnings... but that will only be for workers in the export markets and it will cost everyone more, regardless of job description when buying imports which is what most of us do.<br /><br />I say the earnings chart is the one to watch to see if we are going to get significant increases in housing prices. If you want to buy real estate in an earnings friendly environment, Alberta is where the action is.Brian Ripleyhttp://www.chpc.biznoreply@blogger.com