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Shaping the Societal Bill: past and future trends in education, pensions and healthcare expenditure.

Busse R, Wurzburg G, Zappacosta M

Futures 35(1): 7-24


Education, pensions and healthcare are the main components of the Societal Bill in Europe. Here we analyse the principal trends and trend breaks that will shape the bill in the next decades. Population ageing, changes in household structure, technological progress, new organisation of work and leisure, changes in market labour structure and regulation and increasing migration flows are the main factors that will call for a reform of social systems in Europe. Understanding how all these variables relate each other is a complex challenge that needs to be tackled with both quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods.

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