Just as there is more than one cause of migration out of Illinois, that population loss has more than one effect on the 21st state’s communities.

The number of Illinois residents has fallen by around 150,000 since 2013, according to Census estimates. In that time, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the civilian labor force has decreased from 6.58 million to 6.49 million — and has been falling since 2007.

Population loss has a wide range of effects on a state and its communities, said Frank Manzo IV, policy director for the Economic Policy Institute.

A shrinking population negatively impacts a state’s economy when there are fewer consumers of goods and services. It also can mean a brain drain — losing high-skilled workers and college graduates to other states — which hurts future economic growth.

Illinois’ economy has continued to grow at a faster rate than its border states in recent years, despite the population loss, Manzo said, adding that means there is unfulfilled potential.

“The economy would have grown faster and would grow faster if we had and have positive population growth,” Manzo said. “… Our economy could be one of the greatest in the nation, because it’s still growing relatively fast, but it would be that if we had more population growth.”

For state and local governments, the loss of population — and tax base — can affect the revenue that pays for services, pensions and public education, Manzo said.

This can compound existing problems and lead to negative feedback loops, he said. Schools in decline because of shrinking funding can drive people away or discourage people from relocating to Illinois. Population loss combined with an aging population can compound existing pension crises.

A loss of revenue at the state level can affect payments to hospitals, potentially leading to the closure of rural and poorer hospitals. Loss of hospitals or funding for mental healthcare and social workers then can lead to other social issues.

“The thing is that all of these things are related,” Manzo said. “So, you can look at population loss from all of these different angles. But that, at the same time, is also the problem. It’s hard to discern the exact impact or it’s hard to even understand what’s driving population loss because everything is so interconnected. There are no simple answers.”

They know how it feels

Vermont, which has been facing slow or negative growth for years, made headlines last year when the state legislature approved a program to offer grants to attract remote workers to the state.

The program recently was expanded because of its success.

Though Vermont is vastly different from Illinois, in more ways than just population — less than 700,000 people to Illinois’ 12.8 million in the 2010 Census — the state has been experiencing the effects of a shrinking population for longer.

According to Census data, Vermont’s population growth began leveling off around 2000. U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics show a decline in the state’s civilian labor force from 2009 through 2015 and an increase of just around 3,000 workers since.

With an aging population, declining birth rate and challenges to keeping college students in the state after graduation, Think Vermont project manager Elaine Haney said the picturesque New England state has a “desperate need for workers in all sectors.”

Population loss has become a financial burden to people and businesses that stay in the state, Haney said.

“The impacts on the state due to population decline are significant,” she said. “Basically, the cost of living gets spread around fewer people. So taxes will go up and it will cost more to do things, but we’ll have fewer people to pay for it. And things don’t cost less. Just because there are fewer people using municipal water doesn’t mean we don’t have to treat that water. We still have to treat it and the cost of treating it still goes up, no matter how few people use the water. So, there are rising costs and declining payers.”

Bennington town manager Stuart Hurd has worked in different positions for the Vermont town of around 16,000 people for close to 50 years.

Hurd described Bennington as an aging community that long has experienced stagnant growth. Though the unemployment rate today — around 3% — is much lower than it has been in the past, the town still is losing youth and employers are having a hard time filling positions.

“Our population has been relatively stagnant for probably the last 20 years,” Hurd said. “So efforts by the state to encourage people to move here and work here are much appreciated.”

Bennington now is contending with costly deferred maintenance, particularly infrastructure maintenance, after working over the years to keep the budget level without overburdening rate payers and taxpayers, Hurd said.

Statewide, the cost of running schools has continued to rise, while the number school-age children levels off or goes down, Hurd said. The situation has led to school consolidation that, in the Bennington area, recently led to a backlash from the community.

Community organizations, nonprofit boards and local governments are having an increasingly difficult time finding willing participants. Hurd isn’t certain if it is the result of a cultural change or if the pool of young people who could get involved simply is smaller, but as memberships age, organizations in Bennington are beginning to consolidate or disband entirely.

Vermont already does a lot for workforce development and, as the state continued to struggle to keep and recruit residents and workers, the remote worker grant program and its sister program were born, Haney said.

The remote worker grant program started with a small pool of money and, over the course of a year, selected 33 people — bringing a total of 89 people to the state. Another program assists workers looking to move to Vermont by bringing them in to sight-see for a weekend and setting them up for job interviews. That program has brought 22 new families to the state.

“We’re trying, literally, person by person to bring people to Vermont,” Haney said. “While we need thousands of workers, these programs are a drop in the bucket, but they’re the kind of exposure to Vermont we want them to have.”

Gov. Phil Scott signed a bill June 19 adding a new element to the program — grants will be available for people relocating to work for Vermont companies — a step taken by the legislature because of the success Haney says the state is seeing.

“The average incentive for a remote worker was $3,800,” Haney said. “They could have $5,000, but most of them went for around $3,800. And the average financial revenue impact of a new Vermonter or a Vermont taxpayer is triple that, when you factor in property taxes and payroll taxes and other fees and services that those people bring to the state. $3,800 is a minuscule investment for that return.”