

It is named the Zig-Zag Theory for its propensity of momentum shifting between the home and road teams based on how each performed in the previous game. The idea is that each game in a playoff series is affected by the result of the game that preceded it.

NBA Zig-Zag Theory

Due to the much stronger home-court advantage in basketball, the value on a road team that loses Game 1 is not as apparent until Game 3, as road teams that lose the series opener bounce back to win the next game roughly a third of the time.

However, if the road team wins Game 1, typically in an upset as an underdog, the home favorite is a very strong bet to rebound, historically winning around 75 percent of the time in that scenario.


Because no team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA history, the desperation that sets in for the team down 2-0 is a huge boost. Despite losing the first two games, the lower-seeded team wins outright in Game 3 more than 60 percent of the time.

NHL Zig-Zag Theory


Considering that Game 2 will feature a higher-seeded team at home coming off a win, the public is sure to love betting the favorite at home to win again, which often provides great value on an upset that happens roughly once in every three games.

