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Asymmetric co-integration relationship among coal production, real estate development, and CO2 emissions in China

ABSTRACT The real estate industry is associated with coal production and CO2 emissions. The nonlinear ARDL (AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) co-integration method was used to analyze the effects of long-term and short-term real estate development and CO2 emissions on coal production. The results showed that: (1) The positive and negative impacts of CO2 emissions on coal production were similar in the long. Moreover, CO2 emissions negatively affected coal production; (2) In the long run, the positive impact of real estate development on coal production is greater than the negative impact, though it is not significant. In the short term, the negative shock of real estate effectively reduced coal production; (3) The impact of coal production on CO2 emissions is symmetric in both the long and short term. Therefore, in the future, real estate should develop moderately. In addition, lessening coal production demand is crucial to ensure coal production reduction and carbon neutrality.