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Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan

Abstract An ocean model response to Hurricane Ivan (2004) over the northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is evaluated to guide strategies for improving performance during strong forcing events in a region with energetic ocean features with the ultimate goal of improving coupled tropical cyclone forecasts. Based on prior experience, a control experiment is performed using quasi-optimal choices of initial ocean fields, atmospheric forcing fields, air–sea flux parameterizations, vertical mixing parameterizations, and both horizontal and vertical resolutions. Alternate experiments are conducted by altering one single model attribute and comparing the results to SST analyses and moored ADCP current measurements to quantify the sensitivity to that attribute and identify where to concentrate model improvement efforts. Atmospheric forcing that does not resolve the eye and eyewall of the storm (scales >10 km) substantially degrades the ocean response. Ordering other model attributes from greatest to least sen...