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Serum cholesterol predictive equations in product development.

The aim of the study was to incorporate trans fatty acids into predictive equations for serum cholesterol and compare their effects with the effects of the individual saturated fatty acids 12:0, 14:0 and 16:0. We have introduced trans fatty acids from partially hydrogenated soybean oil (TransV) and fish oil (TransF) into previously published equations by constrained regression analysis. Prior knowledge about the signs and ordering of existing regression coefficients were incorporated into the regression modelling by adding lower and upper bounds to the coefficients. Oleic acid (18:1) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (18:2, 18:3) were not sufficiently varied in the studies and the respective regression coefficients therefore set equal to those found by Yu et al. (Am J Clin Nutr 1995;61:1129-39). Stearic acid (18:0) considered to be neutral was not included in the equations. The regression analyses were based on results from four controlled dietary studies with a total of 95 participants and including 10 diets differing in fatty acid composition. The analyses resulted in the following equations where the change in cholesterol is expressed in mmol/L and the change in intake of fatty acids is expressed in E%: Delta Total cholesterol = 0.01 delta(12:0) + 0.12 Delta(14:0) + 0.057 delta(16:0) + 0.039 delta(TransF) + 0.031 delta(TransV)- 0.0044 delta(18:1) - 0.017 delta(18:2, 18:3) and deltaLDL cholesterol = 0.01 delta(12:0) + 0.071 delta(14:0) + 0.047 delta(16:0) + 0.043 delta(TransF) + 0.025 delta(TransV) - 0.0044 delta(18:1) - 0.017 delta(18:2, 18:3). The test set used for validation consisted of 22 data points from seven recently published dietary studies. The equation for total cholesterol showed good prediction ability with a correlation coefficient of 0.981 between observed and predicted values. The equation has been used to reformulate margarines into "trans free" products all with more favourable effects on serum cholesterol than previous products. Also a cholesterol reducing margarine has been produced. When tested against butter in an open clinical trial among subjects with mild hypercholesterolemia the observed cholesterol-lowering effect of this margarine corresponded reasonably well with the predicted (0.77 vs. 0.64 mmol/L). We conclude that the equation has practical applicability and can be used to formulate and nutritionally optimise fat products as well as to evaluate already existing products on the market.