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Gross Domestic Product Forecasting Using Box-Jenkins Methodology

This study employed the Box-Jenkins (BJ) methodology to develop a forecast model on the Philippine Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The BJ methodology requires four steps of analysis: identification, estimation, diagnosis of the model, and forecasting of the univariate series from 1995 to 2007.The test revealed that the data series was nonstationary, hence was converted to stationary series using Dickey-Fuller (DF) and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test of stationarity. The series was also found to be an autoregressive and with a moving average characteristic. The estimate also revealed that the data fit an ARMA (1,1) class to forecast Philippine Gross Domestic Product.