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Large Scale Plant Disease Forecasting : Case Study of Fusarium Head Blight

Hotspots are locations or regions that have consistently high levels of disease and may have characteristics unlike those of the surrounding areas. We study disease mapping and hotspot detection for Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), a disease which affects wheat crops. The data available include geo-referenced observations of disease intensity for past years, radar-based weather data and information on crop/disease management practices. Risk predictions are available from weather-driven models of disease biology based on experimental data. Also, observed disease rates based on surveys done after each season provide information about the ground truth. We describe some methods for utilizing these sources of information for validation and for improving prediction in future years. The varying sources of information available to us are often sparse and spatially and temporally misaligned which leads to several interesting and challenging statistical and computational issues in order to help develop a geoinformatic disease management system for an advisory to the farmer on whether to spray or not.