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Impact of Alternative Fuels and Advanced Technology Vehicles on Oil Demand in the United States Up to 2030

The increasingly high oil consumption in US road transportation sector, coupled with its significant contribution to greenhouse gases emission, resulted in the implementation of many policies geared towards addressing both challenges. Aiming to enhance the US energy security, the Energy Policy Act encourages the use of alternative fuels and has set forth the requirements for the acquisition of alternative fuels vehicles (AFVs) by Federal Agencies. This paper applies a hybrid, top-down, two-stage model to forecast the share of AFVs in the United States until 2030 and the resulting impact on the US oil demand. In the first stage, a logistic model is being estimated by econometric techniques to forecast the stock of vehicles as a function of socio-economic variables, i.e. population, gross domestic product and saturation point. The second stage applies an S-shape function to forecast the annual share of AFVs based on a trend variable that encompasses inherently fuel cost, cost of AFVs, discount rate and consumer's choice and three different AFV saturation level scenarios (2 per cent, 3 per cent, 4 per cent). The impact of AFV and advanced technologies on oil demand was calculated based on average vehicle miles driven and corporate average fuel economy possible trends for both AFVs and total vehicle stock. The paper concludes that under the 4 per cent saturation level scenario for AFVs, the oil saving is forecasted at 196,000b/d or 1.8 per cent of total transport fuel requirements in 2030. Furthermore, it was determined that marginal increase of 1 per cent in AFVs saturation level in 2030 results in oil saving of around 49,000b/d which represents 0.5 per cent of total fuel requirement. Overall, it was concluded that unless stringent policy measures are introduced, or a sustainable level of high oil prices is reached, there is a limited impact of AFVs on the US oil demand.