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Long range prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India: Evolution and development of new models

An attempt is made to review the evolution and prospects of long range prediction of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall over India as a whole, In addition, a variety of new Long Range Forecast (LRF) models has been developed and discussed in this paper. Further analysis of a recently developed model suggests that the dynamic stochastic transfer memory of the atmosphere is of the order of a decade. This speculation needs to be examined by developing similar models for other regions and seasons of the globe.