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Contested elections, protest, and regime stability: comparing Belarus and Bolivia

ABSTRACT This article examines the 2020 election and ongoing protest movement in Belarus by comparing them to the contested election in Bolivia (2019) that led to the overthrow of Evo Morales and his MAS party. In each case, a contested election brought about widespread street protests, which called into question the legitimacy of the governing regime. However, only in Bolivia do we see a turnover in state power. In Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka has defied social movement protests and maintained control of the state. This article analyzes the role of the police and military forces and the geopolitical relations of each country and argues that, unlike Bolivia, where Morales’s key military allies defected, the Belarusian government has managed to stay in power with the combination of strong coercive capacity and the support of a regional “black knight” – Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Such findings open the way for cautious prognoses for the ongoing protests in Belarus.