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Prospects for Early Deployment of Power Plants Employing Carbon Capture

Coal-based IGCC with CO2 capture and sequestration would yield only one fifth the specific carbon emissions (kg C or kg CO2 /kWh) as would state-of-art NGCC. California appears to be a good venue for consideration of IGCC+S: there is need for additional generating capacity and an unserved market for CO2 that could be used to conduct enhanced oil recovery. In this paper, a probabilistic analysis is conducted to determine Required Selling Price of Electricity (RSPOE) and expected rate of return on common stock equity for three fossil generating technologies: NGCC, NGCC+S (NGCC with capture and sequestration), and IGCC+S. Variables treated probabilistically are the costs of natural gas and coal fuels, and the values of electricity and CO2 products. Predictions of prices prepared by the Energy Information Agency are used together with measures of price variability based on historic price fluctuations. Installation of new generating plant is assumed to occur in 2010 and operate for a 20 year book life to 2030.