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Modelling the Train Accidents at Railroad Crossings in East Java

-ABSTRACT-The growing train movement and people activities around the railroad will increase the frequency of traffic in railroad crossing. This potentially results in the increase in traffic accidents. The prediction of the number of such accidents is influenced by some factors dealing with variables on sensory psychological behaviors and the perception of the drivers passing the crossings. Observations were made at 33 points railroad crossing with not guardrail in Surabaya DAOP VIII. The responsive variables are determined by the explaining variables namely the number of train accidents in railroad crossing. The explaining variables are those determining the value of responsive variables, consisting of three factors namely train engineering features, road engineering features and environment. The last Poisson regression model possesses four determining variables significant with the number of accidents, that is the train speed, the distance of signs and the railroad crossing, flashing lamps and the average daily traffic. The train speed seems to be a primary factor contributing to the high level of accidents. The results of sensivity analysis show that if the train speed increases of 50%, the number of accidents will increase 40%. Facilities that should be quickly provided are among others: provision and installation of flashing lamps and EarlyWarning System (EWS).