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Nigerian elections and the neopatrimonial paradox: In search of the social contract

Abstract A review of a half century of Nigerian elections demonstrates the inextricable link between the Social Contract and election quality in the country. Ultimately, both must move forward if credible elections are to be sustained over the long term, for without a strong sense of public responsibility, power-holders are inclined to manipulate electoral systems to produce favourable outcomes. Nigeria initially enjoyed an ‘ethnic contract’ under which post-independence elites felt some obligation to care for the public interests of their ethnic constituents, but by the late 1980s the ethnic contract had largely given way to a more personal, neopatrimonial pattern of politics. Consequently, election quality has declined in every general election since 1993. As the 2011 elections fast approach, advocates of election reform must widen their scope to support the development of a viable political opposition that has an interest in credible elections and, ultimately, can help to build a national Social Contract.