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Fertility desires and child mortality experience among Guatemalan women.

The importance of individual-level behavior effects of child mortality in shaping fertility desires in 2 areas of Guatemala was examined. Focus was on the variables that are related to fertility desires rather than fertility behavior. The primary data collection area was 4 isolated rural villages in the Guatemalan department of El Progreso in which the Nutritional Institute of Central America and Panama (INCAP) has conducted an intensive nutrition and health program. The data used are taken from a 1975 INCAP survey of 847 women aged 15 and over on attitudes and expectations related to children. A subsample of 716 women aged 15-49 was used. 2 hypotheses about the relationship between child mortality and fertility are tested: 1) that fertility desires are shaped by familial and personal experiences with child mortality that is the deaths of siblings and ones own children; and 2) that fertility desires are based on a conscious assessment of current mortality conditions. A 3rd hypothesis crucial to the 2nd hypothesis is also tested: that individuals accurately perceive changes in child mortality and current mortality conditions. The results indicate that even under conditions of an exogenously induced rapid decline in child mortality women may perceive both the decline and current child survival chances relatively accurately. Perceived child survival chances seem to have little influence on whether or not a woman desires additional children at any parity. It was found that at the 3rd and 4th parities the influence of the death of a womans own children was greater than the death of her siblings and at the 5th parity the influence of sibling deaths was greater. It appears that the child mortality experiences affecting a womans fertility decisions are those of her own and her mothers childbearing years suggesting that mortality declines must occur over 2 generations to make a significant impact on a womans desire for more children.