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Tree Seedling Distributions Across a Gradient of Phytophthora ramorum-infected Coast Live Oak/Bay Forests 1

The effects of sudden oak death (SOD) on coast live oak/bay forest succession are still largely unknown. One scenario suggests that bay will become a greater component of the overstory in infected coast live oak-bay forests and that these communities will succeed to bay forests over time. We investigated tree seedling densities of coast live oak and bay in forty plots in eight sites over a three-year period across a gradient of SOD-infected oak woodland/bay forests. Classification and regression tree analysis (CART) and analysis of variance models were used to investigate a number of stand and landscape variables as predictors of seedling numbers over the infection gradient. Results indicate that a great deal of variability exists in seedling numbers for both oak and bay. Though other variables play smaller roles, site and year are the significant indicators of seedling densities for coast live oak, and site alone is the important indicator of bay seedling densities. Based on this study, we did not find bay seedlings in greater proportion to coast live oak seedlings in stands impacted by SOD. We do not believe that P. ramorum and the associated SOD complex is, at this time, causing succession towards bay-dominated forests. Rather the interplay between favorable weather years, herbivory, and other site factors will determine the competitive advantage of coast live oak or bay seedlings and the outcome for dominance of California’s coast live oak/bay woodlands.