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Component Reliability Prognosis in Asset Management Methods

In liberalized markets, the ever increasing cost pressure forces utilities to operate their networks as efficient as possible. At the same time, social and political requirements force them to maintain high power quality levels. In this delicate area of conflict, comprehensive and detailed asset management methods-considering both costs of network supply and delivered power quality-are essential for long-term success. Such comprehensive asset management methods comprise probabilistic reliability calculations, both for the current network state and also for expected future scenarios considering the long-term effects of decisions. In this respect, the prognosis of component reliability performance in dependency of the chosen asset management strategies is a vital necessity. However, suitable models and data for such prognosis are not easily available. This paper presents a comprehensive asset management approach with special focus on the relevance of component reliability prognosis. Main results of a recent German research project in this field, including calculations for an exemplary application, are presented