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A Model of Intercounty Commuting

The basic purpose of this study is to develop a theory of inter-area commuting, to build a statistical model embodying the theory, and to test the model with empirical data. A related purpose is to test two hypotheses about spatial interaction offered by others. The unit of analysis is the county. This unit was selected because it is the smallest political unit for which data are regularly published. The results may be readily adapted to larger political units such as states or regions. The theory is aggregate, relating numerical flows of commuters between counties to variables which may be defined for counties, but is based on some assumptions about individual worker behavior. Previous work in the area of commuting has been either empirical, on the aggregate level, or theoretical, on the microeconomic level. In the former instance, findings have been directional—commuting tends to increase/decrease with some variable—but not quantitative (i.e., there is no information about how much commuting increases or decreases with a unit change of some variable ), and the lack of a consistent underlying theory prevents the generalization of results of studies of some places to other places not studied. Empirical studies of areas have found a consistent relationship between aggregate commuting to a given place and population, transportation facilities, and rate of economic growth. (1 ) Differences in total commuting to particular industries have been related to the kind of industry (manufacturing and construction attract the most commuters ) and the stability of employment in the industry (unstable employers attract the most commuters). (2) Plant size has been directly related to total commuting only when the plant was large relative to the local population, or when the plant's initial demand for labor occurred at a time of local full employment. (3) Studies of workers have shown a positive relationship between the average home-work distance and the population of the city of work. (4) Intra-city studies have shown that the densest part of the city has the widest dispersion of workers' residences. (5) With respect to industrial factors, unstable employers or plants new to an area have had the great dispersion of workers. (6) Some findings indicate that wage levels are associated with distance commuted. (7)