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Human factor in risk analysis : reliability and safety evaluation applied to the organisation management of a petrochemical plant

Neglecting the influence of the human error in risk analysis, can lead to a sub estimate in top event valuation. Moreover it is equally important not to omit the role of the human action when trying to increase the reliability of a system as a corrected action can avoid a top event from the beginning of the event itself. When extending the traditional reliability analysis of the hardware, which still represents the main point of a typical risk analysis, the analysts are more and more interested in the appraisal of the human reliability. In the past, the main effort in human error analysis has been directed to the definition of numerical values (failure rate) to be used in the fault tree analysis. Many of these efforts are, in some way, badly distributed and many analysts say that the greater advantages that come out from a global system analysis (i.e. considering the management, the employed procedures and communication modalities between the various Functions), can represent a valid interpretation in risk analysis. The analysis of the influence of human error in the industrial risk assessment starts with a first step aimed to identify elements, actions or tasks that cover greater criticism and therefore are characterised of greater probability of error. The limit of these techniques, however remaining the most diffuse, is represented by the necessity to always define the specific configuration of the studied system, with a consequent loss of generality, which instead represents one of the main characteristics of the methodology introduced in this paper. The object of the study is the application of a quantitative methodology to an industrial system, a petrochemical plant.