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Two Notes on the Probabilistic Approach to Causality

1. According to the Humean theory of causality the individual event At (the event of kind A occurring at time t) caused Bt, (t' is assumed to be later than t) if and only if events of kind A are always followed by events of kind B. Many everyday examples of causal connections however refute this view, since it is seldom that the cause is always followed by the effect. Mumps, e.g., can cause sterility, but the probability of sterility given this illness is minimal. For those who wish to retain the basic idea of the Humean approach there seems to be two ways of solving the problem. The first, which I will call the deterministic approach, can be briefly described as follows. An event A can be construed as a set of more elementary events A , A2, . ., An, and the statement that A occurs as a conjunction A occurs, A2 occurs, etc. We then introduce the following definitions: