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Software defect repair times: a multiplicative model

We analyzed over 10,000 software defect repair times collected for nine products at Cisco Systems, to confirm our hypothesis that software defect repair times can be characterized by the Laplace Transform of the Lognormal (LTLN) distribution. This hypothesis originated from the observation that software defect repair times are influenced by the multiplicative interplay of several factors. The Lognormal distribution is a natural choice to model rates of occurrence of such phenomenon. Conversion of the Lognormal rate distribution to an occurrence time distribution yields the LTLN. Our results also confirm that the LTLN distribution provides a statistically better fit to the observed repair times than either of the two most widely used repair time distributions, the lognormal and the exponential.