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Econometric Models for Estimating the Financial Effect of Cybercrimes

Technological progress has changed our world beyond recognition. However, along with the incredible benefits and conveniences we have received new dangers and risks. Mankind is increasingly becoming hostage to information technology and cyber world. Recently, cybercrime is one of the top 10 risks to sustainable development in the world. It poses serious new challenges to global security and economy. The aim of the article is to obtain an assessment of some of the financial effects of modern IT crimes based on an analysis of the main aspects of monetary costs and the hidden economic impact of cybercrime. A multifactor regression model has been proposed to determine the contribution of the cost of the main consequences of IT incidents: business disruption, information loss, revenue loss and equipment damage caused by different types of cyberattacks worldwide in 2019 to total cost of cyberattacks. Information loss has been found to have a major impact on the total cost of cyberattacks, reducing profits and incurring additional costs for businesses. It was built a canonical model for identifying the dependence of total submission to ID ransomware, total cost of cybercrime and the main indicators of economic development for the TOP-10 countries. There is a significant correlation between two sets of indicators, in particular, it is confirmed that most cyberattacks target countries - countries with a high level of development, and the consequences of IT crimes are more significant for low-income countries.