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Analysis of energy demand forecasting model in the context of electric power alteration

The electric power alteration strategy can realize the substitution of the power supply for the coal and the fuel in the terminal energy consumption, which can realize the fundamental change of energy development mode. In this paper, to provide theoretical guidance for grid planning, energy demand forecasting model influencing factors in the context of electric power alteration are thoroughly analyzed, which concludes four key influence factors including environmental protection pressure restriction, energy price fluctuation, policy support and technical substitution. Combined all the factors, energy demand forecasting models in the context of electric power alteration including the Markal model(Market Allocation Model), LEAP model, MAED model(Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) are built, which can provide references for electric power alteration in China.