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A methodology for environment and agent development to model population displacement

Governmental and institutional service providers assigned to areas where involuntary or forced population movement occurs are required to provide goods and security as well as policies and strategies to distressed peoples. This type of population displacement took place on an epic scale in 2011. Modeling and simulation presents a constructive approach to critical analysis and projections needed for decision-making via the representation and characterization of distressed populations to envisage why, when, and where migration will occur. This paper presents a multi-disciplinary methodology to researching and modeling population displacement in a broad, yet inclusive sweep. An Environment Matrix and an Agent Matrix are presented that can be used as a template to develop an agent-based model to capture this phenomenon. These matrices facilitate an accurate representation of an environment and a thorough characterization of agents. The crisis in Syria serves as a use-case for matrix development. This type of agent-based modeling and analysis can proffer insight on how to prevent, hold constant, or moderate escalating effects of threats to populations in jeopardy as well as anticipate when forced migration might occur.