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Co-simulation of energy transition in residential sectors of Chinese lower-tier cities

China is undergoing large changes to tackle carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution. While the top-down governance allows for clear setting of emission reduction targets for industrial sectors and major cities, reducing emissions in residential sectors in smaller (the so-called low-tier) cities remain challenging and often unaddressed. This paper studies policy options to reduce emissions in residential sectors in low-tier Chinese cities. We conducted interviews and surveys in the city of Jingmen in the Hubei province and developed simulation models with feasible policy options and realistic consumption choice preferences. The simulation provided insights to the policies on reducing household coal consumption and ensuing emissions. Our research found that top-down restrictive policies such as coal ban and coal tax are effective in reducing emissions. They, however, restrict access to affordable energy for heating and cooking, especially within rural areas. They hence need to be combined with supportive policies such as electricity subsidy to yield long-term positive impact.