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Estimating GSP and Labor Productivity By State

In gauging the health of state economies, arguably the two most important series to track are employment and output. While employment by state is available about three weeks after the end of a month, data on output, as measured by Gross State Product (GSP), are only available annually and with a significant lag. This Policy Discussion Paper details how more current estimates of GSP can be generated using U.S. Gross Domestic Product and personal income along with individual states’ personal income. A straightforward share approach yields reasonable GSP estimates, but a more sophisticated econometric approach, at a cost of imposing more structure, yields even better ones. Both techniques are also applied to estimate nonfarm-business GSP in order to calculate a measure of labor productivity at the state level that follows as closely as possible the method used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate the national measure of labor productivity. We then briefly examine how labor productivity varies across states.