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TRANSPORTATION MODEL FOR EVACUATION IN ESTIMATING DAM FAILURE LIFE LOSS

ABSTRACT This paper describes and demonstrates some recent enhancements in LIFESim, a modular, spatially-distributed, dynamic simulation system for estimating potential life loss from natural and dam-failure floods. LIFESim can be used for dam safety risk assessment and to explore options for improving the effectiveness of emergency planning and response by dam owners and local authorities. Development of LIFESim has been sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and ANCOLD. Recent enhancements include a dynamic transportation model in the Warning and Evacuation module, additional variables in the Uncertainty Mode, and some new output displays. The transportation model represents the effects of traffic density on vehicle speed and also contraflow, which is sometimes used in evacuations, without requiring the details of road geometry and traffic signal operations. The Deterministic and Uncertainty Modes of LIFESim are demonstrated for the sunny day failure of a large dam. Sensitivity studies are presented for varying the warning initiation time, four emergency shelter location cases, and a five-fold increase in population with no change in the capacity of the road network. Comparisons with the Graham [1999] Method are included. Plans for further model development are summarised, including a user-friendly version that can be distributed to other users and a Simplified Mode for making approximated life-loss estimates for preliminary studies.