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Syrian-Lebanese food shortages will drive instability


 Significance
 While Lebanon is experiencing what the World Bank dubbed “the worst economic crisis in more than a century”, civil war-torn Syria has been hit by one of the most severe droughts of the past decade. An estimated 77% of Lebanese households do not have enough food, and almost all Syrians suffer from reduced availability. 
 
 
 Impacts
 Neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Turkey will be the first affected by any new migration wave.
 The EU may also see more migration from the Levant as a result of food insecurity. 
 The return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon could increase pressure on the humanitarian aid sector in Syria.
 Israel may more tightly secure its Lebanese and Syrian borders for fear of spillover from rising tensions.
