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Geographical patterns and effects of human and mechanical factors on road traffic crashes in Nigeria

Abstract Road traffic crashes (RTCs) remain an issue of global concern particularly in Nigeria where over 80 percent of these crashes are accounted by human and mechanical factors (HM). Many geographic studies on RTCs, fatality and injury have largely focused on the spatial clustering and associative analysis of risk factors; with little known about the relative contribution of HM factors within the spatial context. Hence, this study applied a spatial approach to the effect of HM factors on RTCs, fatality and injury across the regions of Nigeria. The data for this study were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics for the year 2017-2019 and were analysed using spatial analysis techniques such as Global Moran’s I and spatial regression model. There was evidence of geographic clustering of RTCs, fatality and injury in Nigeria. On one hand, route violation and sleeping on steering were significant predictors in southern Nigeria while tyre burst was significant at the national level, in the north and rural areas. The use of mobile phone while driving was a significant predictor at the national level. On the other hand, overloading was associated with RTCs and injuries at the national level and northern Nigeria. Speed violation was a prominent risk factor across the country. The study, based on observed regional differentials, argues that extant laws and regulations on traffic safety should be strictly enforced to curtail RTCs in the country.