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World Economic Vulnerability Monitor ( WEVUM ) Trade shock analysis Measuring the impact of the global shocks on trade balances via price and demand effects

Trade shocks are defined here as net gains or losses from trade caused by changes in international prices and in the volume of goods and services that are traded internationally. It relates to shifts in global markets typically outside of the influence of individual countries. Observed data to measure the impact of world market shifts on trade balances of individual countries typically become available with important time lags. Information on important changes in world market prices for major commodities and on trends in the volume of world trade is typically available with higher frequency and much shorter time lags. Policy makers, especially in developing countries whose economic welfare is heavily dependent on world trading conditions, will be interested in having more real-time assessments of trade shocks on their economy. The methodology proposed in the below attempts to do so, using aggregate information on global trade and prices and links that to the composition of trade of individual countries. This way, it is possible to assess the vulnerability of countries to specific kinds of price and global demand shocks.