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ABIPA: ARIMA-Based Integration of Accelerometer-Based Physical Activity for Adolescent Weight Status Prediction

Obesity is a global health concern associated with various demographic and lifestyle factors including physical activity (PA). Research studies generally used self-reported PA data or, when accelerometer-based activity trackers were used, highly aggregated data (e.g. daily average). This suggests that the rich potential of detailed activity tracker data is largely under-exploited and that deeper analyses may help better understand such relationships. This is particularly true in children and adolescents who have distinct who engage more in bursts of PA. This paper presents ABIPA, a machine learning-based methodology that integrates various aspects of accelerometer-based PA data into weight status prediction for adolescents. We propose a method to derive features regarding the structure of different PA time series using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The ARIMA-based PA features are combined with other individual attributes to predict weight status and the importance of these features is further unveiled. We apply ABIPA to a dataset about young adolescents (N=206) containing, for each participant, a 7-day continuous accelerometer dataset (60Hz, GENEActiv tracker from ActivInsights) and a range of their socio-demographic, anthropometric and lifestyle information. The results indicate that our method provides a practical approach for integrating accelerometer-based PA patterns into weight status prediction and paves the way for validating their importance in understanding obesity factors.