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Superstition, Fertility, and Interethnic Spillovers: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia

This paper documents a strong correlation between fertility and superstition among the Chinese ethnic diaspora in Malaysia and examines the effect of this Chinese adherence to their cultural norm on the fertility behavior and economic outcomes of ethnic Malays. We exploit a short-term change in fertility preferences induced by the Chinese zodiac calendar that leads to a 14.3% rise in birth rates during auspicious dragon years. In contrast, Malays—who do not adhere to this belief—reduce their fertility by 1.9% during dragon years. Declines in Malay births are larger in areas with relatively fewer public resources and investment, providing suggestive evidence that economic factors related to child well-being, such as demographic pressure on resources, drive Malay fertility responses. We also document worse health outcomes at birth for Malays born in dragon years and lower educational outcomes in later life. Last, we find spatial heterogeneity in health effects and an overall increase in student-teacher ratios that are consistent with an increased resource burden imposed by dragon cohorts.