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Approximation of Bullwhip Effect Function in A Three - Echelon Supply Chain

Supply chain includes all members who directly or indirectly involved in fulfilling a customer need. Successful lead of each supply chain requires extensive efforts and various policies that facilitate management of the main issues of supply chain, including materials, capital and information. One of the important and broad management issues in supply chain management is the bullwhip effect problem. This effect causes improper planning, increased inventory levels, reduced profits, and reduced service levels and other harmful effects on the organization. The aim of this paper is focused on studying the impact of some factors and estimating regression function, on bullwhip effect in a three-echelon supply chain including Manufacturer, Wholesaler and Retailer by considering customer demand on a Poisson process. In each echelon of supply chain six different scenarios by combining Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Regression methods have been used for forecasting demand. At the next step, the impact of the scenarios on Bullwhip, was evaluated by factor design and simulation methods. Finally A 6 2 experimental design is used to identify critical factors and estimate regression of Bullwhip Effect Function in a Three-Echelon Supply Chain. We have concluded that by approximating this function, if the values of different function's variables be given, the expected bullwhip effect can be estimated.