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Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Transit Project Using Interpretative Structural Modelling: Evidence from China

Public-private partnership (PPP) projects require comprehensive risk assessment and management, including Urban Rail Transit (URT). A more effective risk management can benefit from an accurate understanding of the two-way influence of PPP project risk factors. This paper uses the content analysis method to filter out, compare, and analyze PPP-related literature; 12 categories of 22 PPP risk factors are extracted and identified, and the possible correlations between these risk factors are judged preliminarily. With the knowledge and advice provided by PPP experts, the initial risk relationships are adjusted and supplemented, which then help to determine a reasonable logical relationship among risk factors. The logical relationship helps analyze the risk factors based on the ISM model analysis method and builds a hierarchical structure relationship of risk factors including 6 levels. Finally, the direct, intermediate, and autonomous factors that lead to problems or failures in PPP projects are analyzed which explains in detail the paths of risk transmission and risk prevention measures of PPP companies operating URT. It lays a foundation for PPP project companies operating URT to recognize, manage, and control risks in a targeted and systematic manner.