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Modified Kalman Filter Application to an Econometric Model of United States Economy.

Not very long ago, a prominent leader of our society Indicated, that he had never seen Individual freedom Incorporated Into an econometric model. This may be so, but we believe that we have taken a small step In that direction. By applying Kalman or Modified Kalman algorithms, we provided a mechanism so the changes in the parameters could be incorporated into the estimation of the model. In this way, the individual freedom could affect the econometric model. Studying all the variables, we found that the variability of the parameters primarily affected long and short term interest rate variables, and to a lesser extent, affected change in inventory and residential investment variables. These results, although expected, represents a step forward in our economic modeling abilities.