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An Application of the Analysis and Forecasting Model Based on Time Series – Safety Monitoring of the Reservoir Dams at XiaShan

Adopting the sliding average value method, curve model method in the analytic approach of the array of time, we have established a time series model of the analysis and forecasting model and given an application at Xiashan Reservoir dams which can monitor the safety of the dams. In this paper we firstly have introduced the relevant technical theory of the time series, including the methods, concepts, principles,and so on. Then we have created a time series forecasting model, and finally we apply the model to Xiashan Reservoir Dams. We have predicted the data of the coming year at the same time through historical monitoring data of the past three years.And we have verified the accuracy of prediction model and adjusted the related parameters.