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Climate Change Mitigation Costs : The Roles of Research and Economic Reform

The authors have applied the MiniCAM energy-economic model to estimate the economic costs of strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. The primary focus of the paper is a supply-side strategy: the application of low-cost, low-carbon energy production technologies over the next century. Results are summarized for six advanced technology scenarios. The authors also consider the economic impact of one demand-side strategy: reducing emissions by improving energy end-use intensity in transition economies over the next 20-30 years. This strategy is represented by one scenario of economic rationalization and reform in the formerly-planned economies. The findings indicated that even with relatively low rates of market penetration, new energy supply technologies could result in a dramatic reduction in mitigation costs. For example, when advanced biomass technologies reached even 25 percent of the global energy supply market, total discounted mitigation costs to 2100 fell from $2.2 trillion to $790 billion. When these technologies were deployed in conjunction with an emissions stabilization path that allowed for a later onset in reductions, costs fell to $207 billion. The results have important implications for both the models and the policies that they inform. First, findings suggest that technology can generate cost savings in both the United States and formerly planned economies in Eastern Europe and the New Independent States. These cost savings increase with the effectiveness and level of penetration of the advanced energy technologies, a relationship that holds across emissions paths and levels of stabilization. Second, the finding suggest that previous macroeconomic modeling efforts have overestimated the costs generated by the inefficient formerly planned economies.