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[Prediction models for the 15 years risk of new-onset hypertension in Chinese people aged from 35 to 64 years old].

OBJECTIVE
To set up prediction models for the risk of new-onset hypertension in Chinese people and explore the risk scores to facilitate the clinical application.


METHODS
A cohort set up since 1992 with participants aged 35-64 years old from 11 provinces and cities of China was prospectively studied. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for the incidence of hypertension within 15 years and the prediction models and risk scores were developed with the regression coefficient. The performance of the prediction models were tested and compared with the Framingham model.


RESULTS
A total of 3 899 participants free from hypertension at baseline with 15 years follow-up were enrolled in the study. Within 15 years, 1 776 cases of incident hypertension were ascertained with a incidence rate of 45.6%. Two prediction models were set up with age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, BMI and the history of parental hypertension in the Model 1, while TG and HDL-C added on the basis of Model 1 in the Model 2. Good performance of discrimination and calibration was established in both models with significant difference in C statistics and no significant difference in net reclassification improvement (NRI) index.


CONCLUSION
The hypertension risk prediction models can be used to estimate an individual's absolute risk for hypertension and could facilitate the management of potential hypertension patients.