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An exploratory analysis of COVID-19 vaccination administration

The goal of this research is to analyze data on vaccinations, vaccination administration, and forecasting vaccination rates on a country-by-country basis for the general public, policymakers, vaccine manufacturers, national governments, and international governments to better understand the current state of COVID-19 vaccination. In this study, two public datasets were used: the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus 2019 dataset and Our World in Data - Coronavirus Pandemic dataset. With datasets, two approaches have been used: visual data analysis for COVID-19 vaccine administration and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting vaccination rates. The findings confirm that Oxford/AstraZeneca is the top vaccine used across the globe with 26.54%, the United States is the top in vaccination, with 277,290,173, India is the top in number of daily vaccinations with 3.659357M, and in total vaccinations per hundred people, the United States has the highest count with 82.91, among the top five countries. It is also estimated that the vaccination rate in the United States will reach almost 60%, while India, Brazil, France, and Turkey will reach about 15%, 28%, 60%, and 23%, respectively, in the following 50 days beginning 20 May 2021. This exploratory study of COVID-19 vaccination data was carried out to effectively show the current state of COVID-19 vaccine administration and to anticipate vaccination rates in the United States, India, Brazil, France, and Turkey.


Introduction
The COVID-19 outbreak, officially identified as the coronavirus disease outbreak, would be a continuing major worldwide public health problem of coronavirus disease 2019  impacted by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The epidemic happened in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The World Health Organization classified COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020 and a pandemic on March 11, 2020. More than 167 million cases had occurred as of May 24, 2021, with more than 3.46 million authenticated fatalities attributed to COVID-19, making it one of the worst pandemics in history.
Since this virus's specific source is uncertain, the very first epidemic occurred in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, China . Several previous instances of COVID-19 were connected to persons who may have travelled the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan (Sun et al. 2020), though living person dissemination may have occurred prior to this (Hu et al. 2021). On February 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) called the sickness "COVID-19," short for coronavirus disease 2019 (World Health Organization 2020). The infection which sparked the pandemic is identified as SARS-CoV-2, a recently found virus which is directly connected to bat coronaviruses (Perlman 2020), pangolin coronaviruses (Zhang et al. 2020), and SARS-CoV (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: Risk assessment 2020).
First, we quantitatively examined the dataset 1 using various data analytical methodologies and displayed the results to offer a complete picture of the global COVID-19 epidemic (Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering: CoViD-19 Data Repository 2020; Muthusami and Saritha 2020). Our explicit study used the 2019 coronavirus dataset of Johns Hopkins University (January -May 2021). We provide a contribution to display and evaluate the findings between 22 January 2020 and 24 May 2021. COVID-19 has still spread almost 192 Countries/Regions, 87 Cities/Provinces, and 275 diverse geographic places. Applying time-series data, it approximated the set of possible cases, such as reported infections, fatalities, and cured cases, throughout the world, as well as the top five nations. The United States and India are among top leading countries as of May 24, 2021. In addition to the variety of diverse instances, including such proven illnesses, fatalities, and recoveries in those nations, as shown in Fig. 1.
The cumulative number of reported infectious cases worldwide is 167,316,360, with a global mean rate of 0.36 and a standard deviation of 1.7. The Top 5 nations' global mean rate is 10.4, with a standard deviation of 7.5. In this case, the United States ranks first on a total of 33,143,662, the worldwide percent is 19.81, from a total of 26,948,874, the global percentage is 16.11, India ranks second, Brazil ranks third at 16,120,756, the worldwide percent is 9.63, with a total of 5,550,143, the worldwide percent is 3.32, France ranks fourth, and Turkey ranks five with 5,194,010, the global mean is 3.10. The total amount of fatalities worldwide is expected to be 3,473,036, with a global mean of 1.81. With this circumstance, the United States ranked first with 590,320 numbers, while Brazil ranked second at 449,858 totals, making it one of the top five nations in the world. The overall incidence recovered worldwide is 104,247,872. Among this scenario, India placed first with a cumulative of 24,054,861, Brazil ranked second with a total of 14,190,644, and Turkey ranked third with a total of 5,034,316 in the top 5 countries worldwide.
According to statistical data analysis, these five nations accounted for more than half (51.97%) of confirmed cases worldwide as of May 24, 2021. In this context, specifics about vaccinations, vaccination administration, and anticipating vaccination rates on a country-by-country basis are significant for the general public, policymakers, vaccine manufacturers, national governments, and international governments. As part of it, in this study, we present visual data analysis of the COVID-19 vaccine administration in terms of several factors and forecast vaccination rates for the top five nations using the autoregressive integrated moving average model with data from the Our World in Data -Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) dataset. A COVID-19 vaccine is a vaccination designed to confer protective mechanisms against the virus that causes coronavirus illness 2019 (COVID-19), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there had a good quantity of information on the form and composition of coronaviruses that cause illnesses such as SARS and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), allowing for the rapid growth of several vaccine solutions in early 2020 (Li et al. 2020;Le et al. 2020;Arora and Das 2020;Alkandari et al. 2021). The SARS-CoV-2 genome data was provided through GISAID on 10 January 2020, and by 19 March, the worldwide biopharmaceutical sector made a strong action to providing COVID-19 (Padilla 2021;Callaway 2020;Shrotri et al. 2021;Mullard 2020). Various COVID-19 vaccines have shown effectiveness as high as 95% in eradicating severe COVID-19 illnesses in Phase III studies. As of April 2021, at least a single national governing authority has approved for public use 16 vaccinations, including two RNA vaccines, 7 standards inactivated vaccines, five viral vector vaccines, and two protein subunit vaccinations (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: COVID-19 report 2021; Muthusami and Saritha 2021; Kim et al. 2021;Dagan et al. 2021). The sections that follow provide further vaccine administration and vaccination rate forecasts in the world's top five countries.

Materials and methods
In this research, two approaches have been used: visual data analysis for COVID-19 vaccine administration and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting vaccination rates. In this study, two public datasets were used; (i). the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus 2019 dataset, which covers the period from 22 January 2020 to 24 May 2021 (Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering: CoViD-19 Data Repository 2020), (ii).Our World in Data-Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) dataset, which covers the period from 20 December 2020 to 19 May 2021 (Hannah et al. 2020).
The first part of this study presents a visual data analysis of COVID-19 vaccine administration in terms of various aspects such as the proportion of top 10 vaccines in the race to combat COVID-19, the number of cumulative vaccinations and every day vaccinations as per country, cumulative vaccinations per country grouped by vaccines, daily vaccinations per countries, and the link between cumulative vaccines and cumulative vaccines per hundred of the top five countries heavily affected by the COVID-19 internationally as of May 24, 2021, including the United States, India, Brazil, France, and Turkey. These results are shown using Python language libraries and data from the Our World in Data -Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) dataset.
The second part of this study forecasts vaccination rates for those nations over the upcoming fifty days from May 20, 2021, using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA model would be a type of predictive model that is used to evaluate and forecast data over the period. ARIMA seems to be a short form for 1 3 AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (Swain et al. 2018;Robert 2020). It's really a type of approach that incorporates a variety of conventional temporal information in time-series. This expressly responds to a number of fundamental patterns in time series analysis, and thus offers a simple though effective way for creating skilled time series predictions. This is a refinement of the conventional AutoRegressive Moving Average that incorporates the concept of convergence (Hyndman and Athanasopoulos 2018). This abbreviation, ARIMA is comprehensive, summarizing the model's major features. In a nutshell, these seem to be: AR -autoregression: the model typically employs the reliant connection among a given feature and a set of deferred data, I -integrated: use of the raw observational quantization to render a time series stationary, MA -moving average: a model which applies the dependence besides an inference and a residual error from a moving average model to deferred data. These kinds of components are clearly specified as being a factor in the model. ARIMA (l, d, n) is a general procedure in which the factors are supplemented by integers to rapidly specify the precise ARIMA model is utilized. The ARIMA model's factors would be as shown in: l: the amount of lag inferences considered with the model, also known here as lag order, d: the amount of incidents that baseline assumptions being differed, generally known as level of residuals; n: a weighted average window density also known as the weighted average order. A simple regression classifier is developed with the necessary quantity and kind of features, as well as the data is processed by a quantity of differencing that render it stationary, i.e. to eliminate trend and seasonal features that weaken the regression analysis.

Results
On dataset 2, an exploratory analysis of COVID-19 vaccination data was performed using Python packages, yielding the results of the global proportion of vaccines as well as the top 10 vaccines in terms of availability on May 19, 2021 around the world, total amount of vaccines, and daily vaccine administration in the United States, India, Brazil, France, and Turkey as well as how much each of these five countries has used, the vaccines they have used, and the relationship between cumulative vaccinations and cumulative vaccinations per hundred for each country. The vaccination rate is then forecasted over the next 50 days commencing 20 May 2021 for the countries of the United States, India, Brazil, France, and Turkey using time series data from dataset 2 and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.   comparison to the population of these nations. The daily vaccine administration among these five nations was discovered to be as follows: India ranks first with 3.659357 million, the United States placed second with 3.384387 million, Brazil comes third with 1.135847 million, France ranks fourth with 498.762 thousand, and Turkey comes last with 435.596 thousand. Following that, how much each of these five countries used and which vaccinations they used revealed that the United States used 'Moderna, Johnson&Johnson, Pfizer/BioNTech,' with a total of 277,290,173, while India used 'Covaxin, Oxford/AstraZeneca,' with a total of 186,410,600, 'Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinovac' vaccines were used in Brazil with a total of 55,098,913, 'Johnson&Johnson, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/ BioNTech' vaccines were used in France with a total of 30,264,699, and 'Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinovac' vaccines were used in Turkey with a total of 26,821,460. Figure 3 depicts the relationship between cumulative vaccinations and cumulative vaccinations per hundred for each country. Among these five countries, the United States ranks first in cumulative vaccinations and cumulative vaccinations per hundred, with 277,290,173 and 82.91,respectively. India,Brazil,France,and Turkey have 186,410,600/13.51,55,098,913/25.92,30,264,699/44.79,and 26,821,460/31.8, respectively. Using the ARIMA approach to investigate a time-series data presupposes that the conceptual model used to analyse the data would be an ARIMA model. It may look simple, which stresses the importance of evaluating the model's assumptions in raw data and residual errors of model forecasts. To discover the trend, we first imported the vaccination time series dataset 2; Fig. 4A disclosed the United States, Fig. 5A showed India, Fig. 6A  With this circumstance, first-order differencing of time series did not eliminate complete trend and seasonality, therefore second-order differencing of time series was performed to obtain a stationary time series. Then, as shown in Figs. 4A, 5A, 6A, 7A, 8A, evaluate an autocorrelation plot of a time series, which illustrates the autocorrelation for possibly high lags in the time series. As it seems that there is a positive correlation with its first 3-to-5 lags, which may be noteworthy for the first 3 lags, indicating that 3 may be a decent baseline for the AR parameter of a model.
The ARIMA model is then created using the factors l, d, and n. The model initially sets the lag value for autoregression to 3, employs a difference order of 2, and employs a moving average model of 3. Following that, the model was used in conjunction with the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) to determine the order of the fittest ARIMA model and the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to determine the appropriate value of differencing. As a result, the best model was chosen as ARIMA (0, 2, 2) in the United States, ARIMA (0, 2, 1) in India, ARIMA (1, 1, 3) in Brazil, ARIMA (2, 2, 0) in France and ARIMA (0, 2, 1) in Turkey. The residual was then subjected to a diagnostic examination, as shown in Figs. 4B, 5B, 6B, 7B, and 8B, and then it was determined that the residuals are uncorrelated and have a zero mean.
At this moment, the fitted ARIMA model forecasts the vaccination rate in the following 50 days beginning 20 May 2021 for the nations of the United States, India, Brazil, France, and Turkey with dataset 2. According to Fig. 9 (green line), the vaccination rate in the United States will reach almost 60%, while India, Brazil, France, and Turkey will reach about 15%, 28%, 60%, and 23%, respectively, in the following 50 days beginning 20 May 2021.

Conclusion
In this study, visualize and debate the current state of COVID-19 vaccination in terms of the proportion of top 10 vaccines in the race to combat COVID-19, the number of cumulative vaccinations and every day vaccinations as per the countries, cumulative vaccinations per country grouped by vaccines, daily vaccinations per countries, and the relationship among cumulative vaccinations and cumulative vaccinations per hundred of the top five countries seriously affected by the COVID-19 globally as of May 24, 2021, including the United States, India, Brazil, France, and Turkey. The statistics reveal that Oxford/AstraZeneca is the top vaccine used across the globe with 26.54%, the United States is the top in vaccination, with 277,290,173, India is the top in number of daily vaccinations with 3.659357M, and in total vaccinations per hundred people, the United States has the highest count with 82.91, among the top five countries. It is also anticipated that the vaccination rate in the United States will reach almost 60%, while India, Brazil, France, and Turkey will reach about 15%, 28%, 60%, and 23%, respectively, in the following 50 days beginning 20 May 2021. However, this will not be enough to save the public, and policymakers in India, Brazil, and Turkey should take the necessary steps.