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Using SAS ® to Model and Forecast Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curves

In the McKinsey paper titled “Pathways to a low-Carbon economy,” the authors provide “…a quantitative basis for... what actions would be most effective in delivering emissions reductions, and what they might cost.” Many such actions, known as abatement projects, result in a net negative cost, and as such present serious opportunity to those who can determine which ones to do, when, and to what extent. However, when practitioners begin to dig deeper, they find the modeling challenge and tangential constraints too complex for ordinary spreadsheet tools they have been used to using. This paper discusses the challenges surrounding greenhouse gas abatement cost curves and provides examples of how a combination of SAS ® portfolio optimization modeling and energy and emissions forecasting techniques can help make the right decisions, and improve both environmental and economic performance.