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How will fertility imbalances affect the human capital structure in China? Evidence from the National Family Planning and Fertility Health Survey

Using the National Family Planning and Fertility Health Survey of 1997 and 2001, we document the preferred fertility level, the actual fertility level and the imbalance between these two for Chinese women. We further study the associations of these outcomes with human capital structure measured by education levels and try to explore the mechanisms behind these associations. The main finding is that there exists severe fertility imbalance in China, and the direction of imbalance is opposite in urban and rural regions. Education plays an important role in determining such imbalance even taking into account other socioeconomic factors. In addition, we find evidence showing that besides economic factors, institutional factors such as the family planning policy may have contributed to the fertility imbalance and the role of education.