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In technology forecasting using bibliometrics what information source is relevant when?: Exploring different source types

This paper explores the different sources to be used for the purposes of technology forecasting using bibliometrics. The Technology Life Cycle Indicators are taken as a starting point, for they take the whole life cycle into account and point to indicators for the different phases of this cycle. Two indicators were tested: the applied research phase, indicated by the number of hits in databases such as the Engineering Index; and the application phase, indicated by the number of hits on News Abstracts Daily. The latter indicator demonstrated unexpectedly early activity compared to the engineering source. The news source was then looked at in more detail and divided into news categories. Of the different news categories, “magazines and journals” showed an early appearance, and “newswires” and “blogs” a late booming activity. Overall, the results showed that the sources in the business environment should be looked at more broadly, as there is information available from various sources already early in the technology's life cycle.