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Identifying Common Predictors of Multiple Adverse Outcomes Among Elderly Adults With Type-2 Diabetes

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Objective: As part of a multidisciplinary team managing patients with type-2 diabetes, pharmacists need a consistent approach of identifying and prioritizing patients at highest risk of adverse outcomes. Our objective was to identify which predictors of adverse outcomes among type-2 diabetes patients were significant and common across 7 outcomes and whether these predictors improved the performance of risk prediction models. Identifying such predictors would allow pharmacists and other health care providers to prioritize their patient panels. Research Design and Methods: Our study population included 120,256 adults aged 65 years or older with type-2 diabetes from a large integrated health system. Through an observational retrospective cohort study design, we assessed which risk factors were associated with 7 adverse outcomes (hypoglycemia, hip fractures, syncope, emergency department visit or hospital admission, death, and 2 combined outcomes). We split (50:50) our study cohort into a test and training set. We used logistic regression to model outcomes in the test set and performed k-fold validation (k=5) of the combined outcome (without death) within the validation set. Results: The most significant predictors across the 7 outcomes were: age, number of medicines, prior history of outcome within the past 2 years, chronic kidney disease, depression, and retinopathy. Experiencing an adverse outcome within the prior 2 years was the strongest predictor of future adverse outcomes (odds ratio range: 4.15–7.42). The best performing models across all outcomes included: prior history of outcome, physiological characteristics, comorbidities and pharmacy-specific factors (c-statistic range: 0.71–0.80). Conclusions: Pharmacists and other health care providers can use models with prior history of adverse event, number of medicines, chronic kidney disease, depression and retinopathy to prioritize interventions for elderly patients with type-2 diabetes.