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Causality between public debt, exports and economic growth in India

The present study empirically analyzes causal relationship between public debt, exports and economic growth for Indian Economy. Annual time series data from 1990–91 to 2017–2018 has been used for analysis. The present study employed the various econometric techniques such as unit root test, co integration and causality analysis for empirical analysis of relationship between public debt, exports and Gross Domestic Product. The empirical analysis under study inferred that there is long run causality between public debt, exports and economic growth and the directions of the causality lies from public debt and exports to economic growth. But there were no long run causality from public debt and economic Growth to Exports, Economic Growth and exports to Public Debt. The results of Wald test of short run causality showed that the there was no short run causality from public debt to exports, Exports to public Debt, Public debt to Economic Growth, Exports to Economic Growth. The short run causality lies from economic growth to Public Debt and Economic Growth to Exports. The results of Diagnose test showed that the model was good fit to the data.