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Postgraduate Forestry at Oxford

Second, these two transitions seem to be connected not so much with national development directly as with frequent correlates of development, namely increasing educational and out-of-family work opportunities for women, and a decreasing relative value of children (which in turn is also largely a function of educational and occupational availability). Third, it is important to recognize that 'development', as it is generally understood (that is, a general improvement in living standards), would not depress fertility unless it made either marriage or children relatively more inconvenient and unattractive for the fertile people in less-developed countries. There is some evidence that in nations such as Nigeria, where the general standard of living is widely believed to be rising, children are still a 'good deal' economically. Although age at marriage is rising significantly, fertility has not fallen measurably in the past generation, and may actually have risen slightly. On the other hand, a drop in fertility does not necessarily imply an improvement in the standard of living, being often just a shift against the relative desirability of marriage at an early age or the relative desirability of children. In India where, save for the recognized improvement in life chances and in disaster relief organization, a rise in the standard of living of the vast majority of the population is still a debatable proposition, fertility rates have been dropping quite rapidly. Contradistinguishing between development and fertility-reduction may be difficult at present, as practically a generation of demographic literature has led readers to assume that, by definition, the two phenomena are part and parcel of the same experience; but there is at least the possibility, from what new evidence has filtered in over the last decade, that the number of exceptions to this 'rule' may be sufficiently large for the fertility decline experience in the less-developed countries, and possibly also the now developed countries, to need re-examination with greater care.