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The initial change in tumor size predicts response and survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with combination chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND
To determine whether the change in tumor diameters at the first follow-up computed tomography (CT) examination after baseline examination (first change) correlates with outcome in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) treated with combination chemotherapy.


PATIENTS AND METHODS
The first change was analyzed in a multicenter randomized phase III trial (Nordic VI, N = 567) comparing first-line irinotecan with either bolus or infused 5-fluorouracil. Cox proportional hazards multiple regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses after correction for guarantee-time bias were carried out to evaluate correlations between first change, objective response according to RECIST 1.0, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS).


RESULTS
The hazard ratios for PFS and OS decreased along with first change. A decrease between 10% and <30%, albeit RECIST does not regard this as a partial response, was a positive prognostic factor for PFS and OS. Patients who had new lesions or unequivocal progression of nonmeasurable lesions had a worse prognosis than those with only an increase in size of >20%.


CONCLUSIONS
The change in tumor size at the first follow-up CT is strongly prognostic for PFS and OS in mCRC.