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Migration strategies of crisis-stricken youth in an enlarged European Union 1

This article studies the migration response of young people from new EU Member States to disparate conditions in an enlarged European Union at the onset of the Great Recession. We use Eurobarometer data and probabilistic econometric models to identify the key drivers of the intention to work in another Member State of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the expected duration of stays abroad. We find that migration intentions are high among those not married and among males with children, but both categories are also over-represented among people with only temporary as opposed to long-term or permanent migration plans. Whereas age affects migration intentions negatively, education has no effect on whether working abroad is envisaged. However, conditional on envisaging working abroad, completion of education (if after the 16th birthday) is associated with long-term (at least five years), but not permanent, migration plans. These results suggest a potential for brain circulation rather than brain drain. Finally, we find that socio-demographic variables explain about as much variation of migration intentions as self-reported push and pull factors and migration constraints.