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Are Cities Truly Dispersed? A Long-Term Analysis of Vertical Profile of Settlements in Athens’ Metropolitan Region

Using nonparametric, exploratory statistics, the spatial structure of the city’s vertical profile was investigated at the municipal scale in Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece), evaluating changes over a sufficiently long time interval (1983–2019) that encompasses different phases of the urban cycle in Greece. Assuming the vertical profile of cities as an honest indicator of urban form, the study was aimed to test the intensity and spatial direction of the (supposed) change in settlement models toward sprawl. Transitioning slowly from a dense to a more dispersed settlement structure, Athens’ dynamics revealed a quite representative model for cities expanding significantly but remaining substantially compact and dense, while responding similarly to different (external) economic stimuli. Nonparametric correlation between the average (vertical) profile of each municipality and the distance from downtown Athens revealed a substantially stable mono-centric structure over time, with small changes over time still responding to factors dependent on the urban gradient. The inherent shift towards “horizontal” urban expansion was relatively modest and characteristic of few periurban contexts. The empirical results of this study can be envisaged as a practical tool of regional planning, allowing continuous monitoring of urban sprawl and land take in complex systems under rapid socioeconomic changes.