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THE IMPACT OF PRICE AND YIELD RISK ON THE BIOECONOMICS OF RESERVOIR AQUACULTURE IN NORTHERN VIETNAM

A bioeconomic model of reservoir aquaculture in northern Vietnam is used to investigate the impacts of fish price and yield variability on the level and riskiness of expected net revenue. Net revenue is volatile compared with similar enterprises in other countries, mainly due to high yield variability. This reflects the nascent nature of the industry in Vietnam and the potential for efficiency and productivity improvements. Increasing production intensiveness, as well as reservoir size, was found to increase profits and decrease revenue risk. Among the management parameters studied, expected net revenue was found to be most sensitive to the length of the production cycle and to the harvest rate, while revenue risk was most sensitive to cycle length. Reservoir size was found to affect net revenue less than anticipated. Although common carp monoculture was found to maximize expected profit, the current species mix minimizes risk, thereby suggesting high risk aversion by northern Vietnam's poor farmers.