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A Process-Oriented Model for Simulating Avalanche Danger

Abstract A simulation process model is developed for rating avalanche danger for twelve east-facing avalanche paths loaded by westerly winds. The model simulates layer age and densification, snow depth, snow transport and deposition, formation of melt crusts, snow temperatures, temperature gradient metamorphism, and avalanche danger on a 6 h basis. Conditioned on avalanches alone, the model predicted avalanche potential on 86% of the 175 avalanche days during an eight-year period. It indicated avalanche potential 50% of the time on non-avalanche days. A sensitivity analysis is under way to improve model performance, and simulation of danger from additional avalanche samples is planned.