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US Imports and Decreases in the US Keynesian Multiplier: 1972-2013

Several recent studies have computed different values for US Keynesian expenditure multiplier. This study examines how increases in the US marginal propensity to import have reduced the multiplier. OLS estimate for two time periods are made for the US MPC, marginal propensity to import and the "overall" marginal tax rate; the time periods roughly delineate the pre- and post-NAFTA/WTO time frames. In particular, the multiplier decreased from 2.12 during the 1972-1991 period to 1.68 during the 1992-2013 period. This implies among other matters that US fiscal policy is correspondingly weakened.