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Instability of migrant labor supply in China: evidence from source areas for 1987–2008

Specialists on agricultural economics and economic development of China examine the dynamics of rural-to-urban migration in China from the perspective of migrant labor supply for the period of 1987–2008. Restricted by the hukou (registered permanent residence) system, rural households in China usually do not relocate from countryside to cities; only migrant workers travel back and forth. This circular pattern of migrant workers negatively influences their migration stability, thereby resulting in the instability of China’s migrant labor supply. By using panel data from rural household surveys in China, we examine migration persistence at both the household level and the individual level. We find that the extent of migration persistence was relatively low in China, suggesting that migrant labor supply was unstable. In addition, we find that labor counts, education level, and network effects improved households’ migration persistence. We also find that migration persistence was associated with individual characteristics, such as age, gender, and health conditions.