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Counting the Cost: To What Extent Did Systemic Research/Academic Failure Contribute to an Inability to Adequately Anticipate or Mitigate the Consequences of the COVID-19 Outbreak?

To what extent did systemic research/academic failure contribute to an inability to anticipate or effectively mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak? This paper makes the argument that we have failed to adequately innovate the research system and its processes- and have failed over time to improve the system by applying novel technologies (that already exist) to enable economies of scale in the research process itself. It argues that there is a fundamental constraint to knowledge creation that to some extent contributed to a failure to anticipate or stop the pandemic. This fundamental constraint may have further costs. Three troubling global trends are discussed here- a global productivity growth slowdown, a slowdown in the rate of globalization (the way we relate to others), and declining returns to investments in research. It is argued that these trends have persisted, robust to the emergence of ‘fourth industrial revolution’ technologies. These trends seem to reflect predictions of the Solow Paradox. It is suggested here that some aspects of the Solow Paradox might be explained by the burden of knowledge effect, or declining productivity in research, due to failures in the research system- a lack of innovation of the research process itself. A failure to address these three dangerous trends that is compounded by a failure to anticipate, or effectively mitigate, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, may prove catastrophic. In hindsight, knowledge of the catastrophic costs of the outbreak seems to suggest that we need new ways of thinking about how we can radically improve how we do research- and how responsive research really is to societal needs. Before it is too late.