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A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate Security Costs and Levels in Competitive Electricity Markets

This paper introduces a novel approach to security cost analysis in competitive electricity markets. Modern power systems operate under strong economic forces to maximize profitability. Operating systems in this environment requires an advanced understanding of the system security risks and associated costs of operating a system at various loading levels. In this paper, the authors borrow concepts from risk analysis and voltage stability theory to determine the total cost of maintaining system security in a market environment. This cost is then distributed among the participants by assessing the sensitivity of the Available Transfer Capability (ATC) to all of the transactions in the system, including bids, bilateral contracts, and other existing commitments. These results are compared with common deterministic techniques such as the ATC, using this information to define a novel security index. The proposed techniques are applied to a six-bus test system for illustrative purposes.