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Challenge F : Even more trains even more on time Investigation and Estimation of Train Dwell Time for Timetable Planning

The determination of train dwell time is an essential step in planning railway timetables. The magnitude of dwell time affects not only train operation efficiency but also punctuality. This paper proposes a novel survey technique to investigate and estimate dwell time. First, mobile devices, such as notebook PCs, mobile phones, and personal digital assistants (PDAs) are used in field survey to collect data. Statistical approaches that include confidence intervals and multiple linear regressions are then employed to estimate dwell time. This technique was applied to the Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA). Passenger flow time was found to be the most important factor affecting dwell time and is the focus of this paper. The relationship between passenger flow time and the number of passengers was statistically significant in the proposed linear regression models. Moreover, the adjusted R-squares of the regression models for different train types range between 0.86 and 0.95. The results demonstrated that the models have very good explanatory capabilities in estimating passenger flow time. As the proposed survey technique is relatively low-cost and easy to implement, it may help timetable planner to effectively determine adequate train dwell time without using advanced systems, such as automatic fare collection or automatic passenger counting systems.