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Expected Energy Production Costs by the Method of Moments

This paper outlines a new method of calculating the expected energy generation in a generating system by probabilistic simulation. The method of moments and a Gram Charlier expansion has been used in the new method. The proposed method can simulate the loading of units to equal marginal cost levels in an economic dispatch mode as well as the partial loadings caused by deratings. Multistate outage representations of generating units have also been accounted for and the results of selected examples portraying the above aspects have been given. Computationally, the proposed method is several times faster than existing simulation techniques.