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Soybeans: Still Lots Of Uncertainty

The 2003-04 soybean marketing year has just passed the halfway point. Historically, much of the uncertainty about demand and potential consumption of soybeans for the year has been eliminated at this juncture. That is not the case this year. The pattern of U.S. soybean exports and export sales has been somewhat unusual this year. Extremely large sales and shipments early in the year were fueled by the Chinese buying binge. As of February 26, the USDA reported that China had imported 285 million bushels of U.S. soybeans during the current marketing year, 29 percent more than during the same period last year. Unshipped sales to China as of February 26, however, were reported at only 12 million bushels compared to outstanding sales of 38 million bushels on the same date last year. Net sales to all destinations for the last two reporting weeks totaled-1.2 million bushels. Cumulative export inspections to all destinations through March 4 were reported at 715.7 million bushels, compared to 796.1 million bushels at the same time last year. Cumulative inspections 10 weeks ago were 10 percent larger than inspections of the previous year, but are now 10 percent less. Cumulative exports reported in the USDA's Export Sales report totaled 725 million bushels as of February 26, 4 percent less than reported a year ago. The recent slow down in the U.S. soybean export program suggests that exports for the year will in fact be down from those of a year ago, as projected by the USDA. The USDA marketing year export projection is currently at 900 million bushels, nearly 14 percent less than exports during the 2003-04 marketing year. Some expect that projection to be lowered in the USDA March 10 monthly update of world supply and consumption projections. The pattern of the U.S. domestic crush so far this year has also been somewhat unusual. Because of the small U.S. harvest in 2003, the available supplies of soybeans for domestic processing this year are significantly less than supplies of a year ago. The USDA has projected a 10 percent decline in the domestic crush for the year. For the first five months of the 2003-04 marketing year, monthly crush was larger than that of a year ago in September, smaller in October, about unchanged in November, smaller in December, and larger in January. Cumulative crush through January was 0.6 percent larger than crush of last year. …