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Estimation of the Rat Population and the Number of Leptospirosis Infectious Rats via the Degree of Infectious Spatial-Temporal Weighting (DISTW) Method

Leptospirosis is categorized as a zoonotic disease passed from animals to humans. The animal host is the main reservoir for the infection, and humans contribute little to the overall transmission. Human cases are not a vital contributor to infection, yet they are obviously the focus of mathematical, epidemiological, and public health interests. In this relationship model, the animal population controls the infection dynamics while the human population determines the impact of the disease. Focusing on leptospirosis, rats are widely considered critical reservoir as source of infection to humans and other animals. However, rats are nocturnal and elusive by nature. It is rarely possible to enumerate precisely the rat population in a particular area. Estimating the total number is also complicated because a rat population is not evenly distributed. Meanwhile, details of the number of infected rats may be required in a specific leptospirosis modeling procedure. Thus, this number needs to be estimated. Hence, to count the number of rats in Malaysia, the degree of infectious spatial-temporal weighting (DISTW) method is introduced in this study, based on the observed number of infected human cases and the probability of infected rats, with the latter estimated from the sample data. Analysis to implement and describe this method was conducted using fieldwork data from Selangor. Finally, the application of the DISTW method enables an estimation of the number of spatial and temporal leptospirosis-infected rats.