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Aortic stiffness and incident diabetes: the hard, bittersweet truth


 
 
 Aortic stiffness increases with advancing age and is a major risk factor for age-related morbidity and mortality. Aortic stiffness and glycaemic dysregulation are related; however, temporal relationships between aortic stiffness and incidence of diabetes have not been fully delineated.
 
 
 
 We sought to investigate the role of arterial stiffness in the prediction of incident diabetes.
 
 
 
 376 untreated hypertensive patients (mean age 52.6±12.5 years, 201 males) without known cardiovascular disease and without known history of diabetes, were included in the study. Markers of subclinical organ damage [carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)] were evaluated in all patients. eGFR was estimated using the Cockcroft-Gault formula. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood glucose were measured in venous blood samples. Patients were prospectively followed-up, for incidence of diabetes as defined by the American Diabetes Association criteria.
 
 
 
 During a median 13.5 years follow-up, forty-six patients (12.2%) patients were diagnosed with diabetes. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, only higher PWV (Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.271, 95% Confidence intervals [CI]: 1.002–1.612, P=0.048) was associated with higher risk of incident diabetes, which was independent of age, sex, pulse pressure, HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and eGFR. In further analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to evaluate the ability of PWV to discriminate subjects with diabetes. The area under the curve (AUC) and 95% CIs of the ROC curve was AUC=0.66 (95% CI: 0.58–0.74, P=0.001) for PWV (Figure 1).
 
 
 
 In our cohort, higher aortic stiffness was associated with higher risk of incident diabetes.
 Figure 1. ROC curve for the prediction of diabetes
 
 
 
 Type of funding source: None
