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Deconstructing the Effects of SARS on China’s Real Economy: What are the Lessons for Monetary Policy?

ABSTRACT This study examines the effects of the SARS outbreak on China’s real economy using structural vector autoregression models. We find that SARS has had both temporary and persistent adverse effects on output. The temporary effects lasted for only one-quarter and the prolonged effects for approximately two years. By further analyzing China’s monetary policy, we find that the accommodative quantity-based monetary policy has greatly hedged the temporary effects of SARS. However, the persistent effects of SARS could have been alleviated if China had eased the price-based monetary policy after the outbreak.