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Urbanization Intensifies the Mismatch between the Supply and Demand of Regional Ecosystem Services: A Large-Scale Case of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

The process of rapid urbanization has been causing non-negligible disturbances to our ecosystems, which has aggravated the mismatch between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand. A clear understanding of the relationship between the ES supply–demand mismatch and urbanization is crucial as it could have a lot of significance for implementing ecological compensation and conservation action. Although a large number of studies have explored this problem, previous studies have focused primarily on the spatial mismatching of the ESs, and only a few studies have considered the spatial relationship between the ES supply–demand mismatch and urbanization at the watershed scale. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, this study quantitatively assesses the supply and demand of five ESs, including carbon sequestration, water retention, soil conservation, food production, and recreational opportunity. The bivariate Moran’s I method was used to analyze and visualize the spatial correlation between the ES supply–demand mismatch and urbanization. The results indicate that both the total supply and the total demand of the five ESs increased, while the increasing rate of total demand was higher than the total supply of the ESs; this resulted in a significant spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of the ESs from 2000 to 2020. There is also a negative spatial correlation between the ES supply–demand and urbanization, while the results of local spatial clustering have obvious spatial heterogeneity. The metropolis and its surrounding counties are mostly the ES supply and demand deficit area, but some surrounding counties have managed to transform a deficit into a surplus. These results indicate that urbanization has a certain interference on the mismatch of the ES supply and demand, and this interference is not irreversible. Moreover, this study provides a reliable reference for government management in the context of balancing urbanization and the ecosystem.