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Relative Importance of Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers on the Dynamics of Aboveground Biomass across Agro-Ecological Zones on the Mongolian Plateau

The dynamics of aboveground biomass (AGB) are driven by both climate variation and anthropogenic modification, however, few studies have evaluated the relative importance of these two drivers, especially in a heterogeneous landscape. Taking the Mongolian Plateau as a case study and employing the vegetation optical depth retrieval as a proxy of AGB, this study aimed to determine the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on the dynamics of AGB in Mongolia (ML) and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IM), China. Spatial panel data model specific to each agro-ecological zone was employed to fulfill the task. The results revealed that: (1) Since the socio-institutional transition in the early 1990s, AGB declined in most parts of the grazing zone of Mongolia. The reduction of precipitation, the rise of temperature and the intensification of livestock grazing were the major drivers behind it. Ranked by their relative importance, the order in the grazing zone with relatively humid climate was: Precipitation ≈ temperature > livestock grazing; the order in the grazing zone with relatively arid climate was: Precipitation > temperature > livestock grazing; (2) Since the implementation of a series of ecological restoration programs in the early 2000s, AGB increased in most parts of the grazing zone of IM, and the increase of precipitation was the dominant driver behind it; (3) Since the early 2000s, AGB increased in most parts of the grazing-farming zone of IM. The increase of precipitation, the decline of temperature and the intensification of grain production were the major drivers behind it. Ranked by their relative importance, the order was: Precipitation > grain production > temperature; (4) Since the early 2000s, AGB increased in most parts of the farming zone of IM. The increase of precipitation and the intensification of grain production were the major drivers behind it. Ranked by their relative importance, the order was: Grain production > precipitation.