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The Conflict Induced Costs of Lending

We study the effect of armed conflict on loan officers and their actual lending decisions. Following mortar shelling, which locally occur for the first time but then repeat, loan rates set by loan officers rapidly and substantially increase, even surpassing the levels seen in comparable locales in border areas where shelling has become routine. A decrease in the dispersion of loan rates suggests a hardening of the beliefs about the local new normal of being shelled recurringly. Hence the real costs of armed conflict through credit markets are large and may involve substantial and potentially harmful re-negotiations of credit contracts.