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A System of Differential Equations Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Pampanga

The main objective of the study was to develop and present a system of differential equations modeling COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the province of Pampanga. We modeled COVID-19 using the given observed data. An SIRD model was developed, which was based on the SIR model developed by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927. An analytical and numerical method were used in this model analysis. I(t) was solved analytically followed by solving the parameters of the model using optimization process in the Excel solver. Then the numerical solution for dS/dt, dR/dt and dD/dt was solved using Runge-Kutta method in Scilab 6.1.1.Based on the developed model, the transmission rate (r), removal rate (recovery (λ) and death rate (ω)), proportion of the population using face mask (θ) and the efficacy of face mask (ε) were significant factors driving the rise of cases.