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Accident Rates and Safety Policies for Trucks Serving the San Pedro Bay Ports

This study estimates three distinct measures of truck-related accident risk for several California urban highways. The risk measures are average risk (the number of accidents divided by total traffic volume), marginal risk (the change in average risk resulting from a marginal increase in truck traffic volume), and external risk (the product of marginal risk and total traffic volume). Special attention is paid to comparisons of these risk measures between "drayage routes", which carry the highest concentrations of drayage traffic, and other urban routes. This is done to investigate the notion that drayage trucks present a greater threat to highway safety than do other types of heavy commercial trucks. Estimation results suggest that drayage routes are indeed relatively hazardous in terms of average risk. The marginal and external risks exhibited by these routes, however, are considerably smaller than those of several other urban routes. These latter findings suggest that the exclusive targeting of drayage routes, and the trucks that travel them, may not offer the most effective approach to designing highway safety policies that target heavy commercial truck traffic.