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A Bayesian Approach to the Assessment of West Greenland Halibut : Rationale and Critique

A Bayesian/MCMC approach with the modified Logistic equation incorporating a term which integrates either the constant for the natural logarithm (2.71828) and normally distributed random numbers (e v ) or the variability of the Sea Surface Temperature (SSTSD, lagged 6 years) with auto-correlated residuals is implemented. The SST was sampled from the area of West Greenland Halibut (WGH) juvenile (age class 1) drift in the mixing layer (which is proposed as a system-wide co-driver). The evaluation of both sub-exploitation and overfishing shifts in relation to the cut lines for BMSY: 0.3 (unrealistic), zero or the mean from the standardized series (highly precautionary) or (local) linear equilibrium values (relatively useful) and the stock appears to be over-exploited (even assuming the linear fit) during 2012-11 and close to equilibrium values during years 2006-2009. It is suggested that the Bayesian framework may be useful, provided that the population model that underlies the simulations has the sufficient degree of resolution to describe the complex dynamics which may drive both recruitment and abundance in WGH. While the incorporation of the environmental forcing results in a forecasted biomass series that approximates non-linear approaches developed by the author, estimates and reference points are considered rough proxies (of proxies) and the method does neither show the resolution nor the capacity to explain the