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Modelling the Environment as a Dynamic System

Present Status of the Grebes The census conducted in May 1983 gave a total of 37 Grebes. Even estimating a census error of 20% during the breeding period of these birds, when they are shy and non-vocal, there are probably no more than 50 to 60 individuals alive today. This represents a 75% loss of population in 8 years. Just as Reeds and Cattails are least plentiful along the east, north, and west, shores, so the fewest Grebes occur there. For example, only 5 birds were seen along this 85-km stretch in 1983, whereas in 1975, 97 Grebes were counted there. The bay of Santiago Atitlan continues to hold the largest number, or about 32 individuals. It is predicted that the species will be extinct in less than 5 years unless captive breeding is begun swiftly in a safe and scientific facility.