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Shape of the relationship between hypertension and the rate of progression of renal failure in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

The effect of hypertension on the rate of progression of renal failure was analyzed in 26 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease relating the slopes of progression (linear regression of the reciprocal serum creatinine on time) with the average mean arterial pressure, systolic and diastolic pressure, derived over the entire follow-up period for each patient. Hypertension was found in 19 of the 26 patients. Using simple linear regression, there was no significant correlation between the two variables in any case. Using polynomial regression (quadratic and cubic), this relationship fits a sigmoid (for diastolic pressure) or a negative parabolic curve (for mean arterial pressure and systolic pressure); i.e. the lowest and the highest values of mean arterial pressure and systolic pressure were associated with faster rates of progression. Thus, an appropriate model to study this relationship is not the linear but the polynomial regression.