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Techno-Economic Analysis of a Small-Scale Biomass-to-Energy BFB Gasification-Based System

In order to limit global warming to around 1.5–2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century, there is the need to drastically limit the emissions of CO2. This goal can be pursued by promoting the diffusion of advanced technologies for power generation from renewable energy sources. In this field, biomass can play a very important role since, differently from solar and wind, it can be considered a programmable source. This paper reports a techno-economic analysis on the possible commercial application of gasification technologies for small-scale (2 MWe) power generation from biomass. The analysis is based on the preliminary experimental performance of a 500 kWth pilot-scale air-blown bubbling fluidized-bed (BFB) gasification plant, recently installed at the Sotacarbo Research Centre (Italy) and commissioned in December 2017. The analysis confirms that air-blown BFB biomass gasification can be profitable for the applications with low-cost biomass, such as agricultural waste, with a net present value up to about 6 M€ as long as the biomass is provided for free; on the contrary, the technology is not competitive for high-quality biomass (wood chips, as those used for the preliminary experimental tests). In parallel, an analysis of the financial risk was carried out, in order to estimate the probability of a profitable investment if a variation of the key financial parameters occurs. In particular, the analysis shows a probability of 90% of a NPV at 15 years between 1.4 and 5.1 M€ and an IRR between 11.6% and 23.7%.