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A New Framework to Assess Regional and Urban Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: The Case of High-Speed Rail in Portugal

This paper presents a comprehensive framework for modeling the impacts of large-scale transport infrastructure which have the potential to fundamentally alter the spatial interaction properties of regions, producing significant socio-demographic and economic modifications. This model is being developed as part of a broader research project to assess the impacts of the development of a high-speed rail (HSR) network in Portugal and to evaluate the best infrastructure and service configurations of the system. The framework will be applied to study a future HSR line between Lisbon and Oporto, exploring the concept of megalopolis formation for the corridor. The expected impacts of HSR include rearrangements of the socio-economic structure of the region it serves, redefinition of the nature of the economic linkages to neighboring regions and other external regions, and changes to the urban forms of the various urban centers which will experience significant accessibility upgrades. The framework calls for an agent-based formulation, with decision-making agents at various spatial scales and decision making levels interacting both in space and across levels, producing effects on upper and lower levels of spatial resolution and decision making. The model will include three main types of agents, which are linked to different scales of decision-making and spatial resolution, e.g. municipal, regional, and national. This paper presents the framework of the model, characterizes the interactions among the various levels of decision-making and assessment, and describes the methodological formulation of all the sub-models proposed for this comprehensive simulation tool.