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Verdict 2019: The expanded support base of the Bharatiya Janata Party

The verdict of 2019 indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not only managed to retain its support base which it built in 2014, but also expanded it both geographically and socially. It managed to win seats in states where it had not performed well in earlier elections, and to get more votes amongst communities which had not voted for it earlier. The Congress could not improve upon its 2014 performance, but it is important to note that neither its votes nor its tally of seats decreased. The BJP improved upon its performance of 2014 largely at the cost of regional parties. The combined vote share of the regional parties witnessed a decline. Some regional parties did manage to hold onto their support base but others could not secure the support base they had held in 2014. In states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Karnataka and Maharashtra, the regional parties performed badly despite some of them having formed an anti-BJP alliance. The BJP’s gain in terms of vote share and seats, largely at the expense of regional parties in many states, begins a new debate about whether this is the beginning of the end of the dominance of regional parties in the North Indians states, or if it is a passing phase in Indian elections. If this decline in the importance of the regional parties is largely in respect of national elections, could there be a reversal in the trend during state assembly elections?