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The Census Undercount: Effects on Federal Aid to Cities

The impact of adjusting 1980 U.S. population census figures for the undercount on federal grant allocations to cities is examined. In contrast to claims by local officials that their cities have lost up to 200 dollars per uncounted person in federal grants, the authors suggest that an undercount adjustment "could be expected to add little more than [20 dollars] per uncounted person in a few large cities--with most large cities experiencing much smaller gains or even federal aid losses after an adjustment." Several reasons for this finding are discussed. "They relate to the significant limitations of available techniques for estimating the census undercount; the fact that population data are not used in all formula allocation systems; the varied ways in which population data can affect formula allocation systems when they are used; and [the] assumption that federal aid funds would not increase in proportion to the population added as part of an undercount adjustment procedure for federal grants."