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The Macroeconomic and Industry Effects of China Following the Fluctuation of World Iron Ore Price: A CGE Approach

This paper assesses the impacts of world iron ore price fluctuation on macroeconomic and industries in China under the WTO framework. To address the issue, we use a computable general equilibrium model -CHINGEM model devised by COPS of MONASH University, Australia and College of Economic and Trade of Hunan University jointly, using the sixth edition of GTAP Chinese BASEDATA. Overall our results show that a substantial price increase on imported iron ore will bring certain negative effects on macroeconomic and industries in China. Industries highly affected are iron ore, TCFs and metals (include steel industries) while a slight impact on agriculture. Furthermore, it exerts a largely negative chain effects on regional output and employment in Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan