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BALTIC SEA PORTS AND RUSSIAN FOREIGN TRADE: STUDIES IN THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF TRANSITION

The aim of this study is to describe how the changing geopolitical environment in the former Soviet Union (FSU) has created new transport geography, and thereby resulted in new patterns of foreign trade routes, port competition and market economic adaptation in the Baltic Sea fringe. The geographical limitation is the western part of the FSU and the Baltic Sea. The time-span is from the beginning of the 1990s until the beginning of 2003. The role of, and situation in, the port sector is here used to describe the difficulties that have faced primarily Russia in the years of transition. In its current extension, Russia faces severe limitations in port capacity compared to the demand generated by domestic industry and raw material producers. Meanwhile, the Baltic states possess a port capacity that vastly exceeds local demand. A number of proposed Russian projects for new port capacity are described and the Russian North West is set in relation to the Baltic Sea region as a possible competitor. In addition, other changes and developments within the Russian transport and port sectors during the years of transition are described. The thesis shows that the current large-scale development of new Russian port capacity, although economically hard to motivate, has coincided with higher oil prices since 1999. As traded volumes have increased even more than capacity, Russian dependence in the port sector upon foreign ports continues uninterrupted. The results of a five-year longitudinal Port Survey of Swedish foreign trade with the FSU countries 1993-1997, conducted by the author, complemented by a similar study by Statistics Sweden 1998-2001 in Swedish ports, is also presented. The purpose has been to thoroughly study the actual flow of cargoes between Sweden and the FSU and, at the same time, evaluate the official trade statistics presented for this trade relation, which has uncovered substantial discrepancies. (A) This document is available on the Internet: http://www.handels.gu.se/epc/archive/00002983/01/BrodinAvh.pdf