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Cyclicality of Mobility Rates on Human Capital - Evidence from Danish register data, 1988-1997

The paper examines the relationship between the mobility rates of employees and the business cycle variations for the entire labour force as well as different subpopulations. The analyses are performed by register data for the period 1988-97. This period is characterised by a downturn as well as an upturn in the business cycle. The paper present decomposed into-job and job-to-job mobility rates by sectors, age groups, educational levels, and work place sizes. Clear level differences in mobility rates are found together with differences in business cycle influence for the subpopulations. The general correlation between the mobility rate and the business cycle indicates a procyclicality of the inflow mobility rates and a countercyclicality of the outflow mobility rates. The paper is a part of a larger study at The Danish Institute for Studies in Research and Research Policy on knowledge mobility and benchmarks on decomposed human mobility rates. The study also participates in a Nordic research project on Competence Flows and in an OECD Focus Group research project on Mobility and Human Resources.