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How Accurate are Traditional Quota Opinion Polls

The evidence that there might still be a problem with traditional quota surveys lies in the results they obtain when they ask their respondents how they voted in the 1992 General Election. Table 1 shows the relevant figures obtained during the period between March and May 1996 by the three companies which at the time were still using traditional face-to-face quota sampling. They show that the Conservatives lost that election by a margin of between 5 and 7%. In reality, of course, they won by 8%.