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Grid expansion planning considering probabilistic production and congestion costs based on nodal effective load model

This paper describes an alternative method for grid expansion planning considering construction cost, probabilistic production cost, congestion cost and outage cost of a grid at a composite power system derived from a simulation model. This model includes capacity limitation and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. It emphasizes also the two questions of “how should the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines and transformers, etc.) be considered for longterm production and congestion costs assessment from the economic view point?” and “what is the reasonable reliability level when minimizing construction cost, probabilistic production cost, congestion cost and outage cost?”. This simulation methodology comes essentially from a nodal probabilistic production cost simulation model. This type of model is derived from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on a nodal effective load model, and has been recently developed. In this paper, a heuristic scenario method choosing a least cost solution (scenario) among various scenario combined from candidate new lines is used for deciding the best solution. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by several case studies using a test system.