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Elevated Risk of Ecological Land and Underlying Factors Associated with Rapid Urbanization and Overprotected Agriculture in Northeast China

Ecological land with considerable ecological value can be regarded as an important indicator in guaranteeing ecosystem function and sustainable development. Generally, the urbanization process has been considered to be the primary factor affecting ecological land use. However, the influence of agricultural development, particularly in a typical farming area, has rarely been studied. In this paper, we present a method to assess the ecological risk of ecological land (ELER) in a black soil area in northeastern China. Furthermore, the underlying factors were detected using the geographically weighted regression model, which took into account conditions of natural elements, the urbanization process, and grain production conditions. The results indicate that ecological land experienced remarkable changes with an evident loss and decline from 1996–2015. The ELER progressively increased in the concentrated farming area and the western agro-pastoral ecotone, and the ecological land in the eastern forest area was always at a high risk level. According to the regression coefficients, the relationships between influence factors and ELER could be better explained by the variables of elevation, slope, proportion of rural residential area, and ratio of cultivated land area to residential area. To summarize, agricultural occupation and urban expansion were verified as the two main causes of ecological land loss, as well as elevated risks. In light of the current situation, measures such as policy adjustment and ecological restoration should be taken to avoid risk and optimize land use.