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Cost of Nutritious Diet for Children in Pakistan and Effects of Imminent Afghan Refugees on Existing Consumption Pattern

The fall of Kabul after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan may have serious repercussions for Pakistan if the influx of refugees accelerates, as additional demand for food items and resulting inflationary pressures can jeopardize the diets of children. To examine this issue, we estimate the gap between actual and desired per capita expenditures on a least cost nutritious diet consumed by Pakistani children aged 3-10 years. The study finds the gap across income groups and regions for two provinces of Pakistan i.e., KP and Balochistan. We find that under-consumption is highest in children of Balochistan Urban and KP Urban, as households in both locations spend only 21 percent of the recommended dietary expenditures. We estimate the decrease in dietary expenditures coming from an increase in food prices after the refugees’ influx. We found the dietary gap is high if the influx of refugees exceeds one million by the first quarter of 2022. However, the dietary gap does not increase much if the number of refugee arrival remains under 700,000, albeit the large nutrition gap does not improve.