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A MIML-LSTM neural network for integrated fine-grained event forecasting

Societal event forecasting plays a significant role in crisis warning and emergency management. Most traditional prediction methods focus on predicting whether specific events would happen or not. However, the results of these methods are not always informative for the policy makers due to excessive frequency, lack of details and supportive evidence about the predictive events. In this paper, we focus on the problem of integrated fine-grained event forecasting which is to predict the attributes of events and find out related precursors. Given a collection of news sequences, we transform the problem into a Multi-Instance Multi-Label learning (MIML) framework. Considering the sequential influence of events and hybridity of news, we implement the MIML framework based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, and propose the model called MIML-LSTM to extract three levels of deep features which represent news article, daily status and news sequence respectively. Based on this hierarchical representation, we design a compositional objective function for joint training of each part. Taking multiple types of protest event prediction as a demonstration, we evaluate the proposed model on news streams from three countries in Latin America, and the experimental results show the effectiveness of our model on integrated fine-grained event forecasting.