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Establishment of flood hazard mapping based on simulating rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curve for the Ca Mau Peninsula of Vietnam

In recent years, flooding has frequently occurred in the Ca Mau Peninsula, a low-lying coastal area (LCA) of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, causing obstacles to many aspects of people's lives. Extreme rainfall is the key cause that led to the flooding of the area. The study, therefore, is to establish flood hazard mapping (FHM) for the Ca Mau Peninsula of Vietnam based on simulating the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model. To deploy the research, daily rainfall data sequence at six observation stations across the area for the 1984 -2019 period (baseline) and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios correspond to 2050 timescale is used to simulate the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency model. The reliability of the flood hazard mapping was appraised by comparing the model results to the measured field and issued reports. The results state that intensities of extreme rainfall events (EREs) various durations with different return periods are all probably to increase over time 42.5 and 57.9% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared with baseline. In general, the highest intensity of rainfall occurs at a 50-year return period at all different rainfall intervals of the baseline as well as future scenarios. Results pointed out that the sub-areas of high flood hazard for the baseline and future scenarios coincide with the lowest locations of the western provinces and part of the northeastern provinces.