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The Future of Manufacturing: The United States Stirs

A nation’s capacity to transform physical raw materials into products valued by end users all over the world has been the hallmark of economic development for more than two centuries. Although trade in intangibles and services has grown rapidly in recent decades, no country has yet been able to leapfrog successfully from exporting raw materials into the global information economy without “making stuff ” for international markets along the way. Export-led development among follower nations puts pressure on leading nations. If the leaders can continue to innovate and differentiate their output, mutually beneficial exchange of the sort typically described in economics textbooks may result. However, “hollowing out” of the leaders (that is, the sudden decline of their key sectors) is not an impossible outcome, either theoretically or in practice; global economic leadership has changed hands from time to time throughout the course of modern history. Where any particular historical episode comes out along the spectrum, from Pareto optimality to hollowing out, depends on many factors; one of the most important is the public policy response of the leading nation. The United States faces such a challenge today. As this paper describes, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted severely in the 2000s, raising the prospect that important manufacturing industries—both high tech and low tech—might disappear from the country for good. The Great Recession that began in 2008, which was brought on by both domestic and international forces, punctuated this decline. The U.S. response to the recession staved off immediate disaster, and it has created momentum toward an effective response to the longer-term challenge. As I argue below, whether this momentum will be sustained is an open question, but if the United States does retain its leading position in manufacturing, the challenge may then be reversed. Export-led growth in follower countries could stall, thereby