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Out of the Frying Pan: Climate Change and Internal Migration in Brazil

When global warming affects productivity in climate-sensitive sectors, migration represents a potential adaptation mechanism. We exploit exogenous variation in temperatures and precipitation across Brazil and examine the response in state-to-state migration flows between 1981 and 2010. Accounting for time-varying migration costs using a novel road dataset constructed by digitizing historical maps, and addressing the endogeneity of the roads network, we find strong evidence that states with warming temperatures exhibit higher levels of emigration, particularly in the agricultural sector. Our results suggest that holding travel cost constant states that experience a 10 percent increase in Celsius temperatures will see an 8.8 percent increase in emigration to other Brazilian states. Interestingly, while rising temperatures clearly play a role in pushing migrants out, we do not generally find that migrants pay attention to the temperatures of their destination. Awareness of the climate at destination is however much higher if migrants have been exposed to droughts at origin. These ambiguous findings raise questions about whether migrants appreciate the role of climate in their relocation decisions or simply react to the consequences of climate change, e.g. in the form of lower agricultural productivity.