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Analyzing and Predicting the Popularity of Online Content Using the Weak Ties Theory

With the rapid development of online social networks (OSNs), a huge amount of user generated online content is gradually affecting people's lives. Popularity prediction of online content aims to predict the popularity in the future based on its early diffusion status. Existing models for popularity prediction are mostly based on discovering network features or fitting the equation into a varying time function which seldom make full use of the law of sociology. The main contribution of this article is to solve the problem that the accuracy of current popularity prediction model is not high enough and few or no work based on sociology. In this paper, we find that there exists a high linear correlation between the proportion of faithful fans in Facebook homepage with frequent shares in the early and the future popularity. The statistical results about Facebook remind us that the weak ties theory plays an important role in prediction task. Furthermore, an experimental study clearly illustrates that the effectiveness of the proposed method.