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[Demography: can growth be slowed down?].


 The UN Fund for Population Activities report on the status of world population in 1990 is particularly unsettling because it indicates that fertility is not declining as rapidly as had been predicted. The world population of some 5.3 billion is growing by 90-100 million per year. 6 years ago the growth rate appeared to be declining everywhere except in Africa and some regions of South Asia. Hopes that the world population would stabilize at around 10.2 billion by the end of the 21st century now appear unrealistic. Some countries such as the Philippines, India, and Morocco which had some success in slowing growth in the 1960s and 70s have seen a significant deceleration in the decline. Growth rates in several African countries are already 2.7% per year and increasing. It is projected that Africa's population will reach 1.581 billion by 2025. Already there are severe shortages of arable land in some overwhelmingly agricultural countries like Rwanda and Burundi, and malnutrition is widespread on the continent. Between 1979-81 and 1986- 87, cereal production declined in 25 African countries out of 43 for which the Food and Agriculture Organization has data. The urban population of developing countries is increasing at 3.6%/year. It grew from 285 million in 1950 to 1.384 billion today and is projected at 4.050 billion in 2050. Provision of water, electricity, and sanitary services will be very difficult. From 1970-88 the number of urban households without portable water increased from 138 million to 215 million. It is not merely the quality of life that is menaced by constant population growth, but also the very future of the earth as a habitat, because of the degradation of soils and forests and resulting global warming. 6-7 million hectares of agricultural land are believed to be lost to erosion each year. Deforestation is a principal cause of soil erosion. Each year more than 11 million hectares of tropical forest and forested zones are stripped, in addition to some 4.4 million hectares selectively harvested for lumber. Deforestation contributes to global warming and to deterioration of the ozone layer. Consequences of global warming by the middle of the next century may include decertification of entire countries, raising of the level of the oceans, and submersion of certain countries. To avert demographic and ecologic disaster, the geographic and financial access of women in developing countries to contraception should be improved, and some neglected groups such as adolescents should be brought into family planning programs. The condition of women must be improved so that they have access to a source of status other than motherhood.
