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A system dynamics model to study the impact of an age pyramid on emergency demand

This paper describes a system dynamics simulation model to analyse the relationship between age pyramid and the volume of patients arriving to hospital emergency departments located in a sub-region of Lower Silesia of Poland. The study relies on demographic and historical demand data, and the cohort forecasts for the population of the region. The results of the simulation experiments provide insights into the relationship between sub-regional demographic trends and population needs in relation to hospital emergency arrivals. The preliminary findings indicate that the forecasted long-term demographic changes in the population may increase the number of emergency patients in the area.