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Preliminary Quantitative Risk Assessment of Norovirus in Shellfish in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China.

Norovirus (NoV) is a main foodborne pathogen of acute gastroenteritis in the world. A preliminary quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was conducted to evaluate the health risk caused by this virus in shellfish in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China. The QRA framework was established from the process of shellfish at retail through cooking at home to consumer consumption. The prevalence and quantity of NoVs in shellfish, cooking methods, internal temperature and time of shellfish in different cooking conditions, shellfish consumption frequency, and consumption amount were analyzed in the exposure assessment. The results of exposure assessment were introduced into the beta-Poisson dose-response model, and Monte Carlo analysis was used to calculate the risk of gastroenteritis caused by shellfish consumption in the cities around the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China. The results showed that the probability of illness caused by NoVs due to shellfish consumption per year (Pill,yr) was 1.86 × 10-5. It was estimated that the annual number of patients with gastroenteritis per 1,000,000 general population (Nexp,mil) was 0.10, 1.23, 16.90, and 0.38 for population aged 0-4, 5-18, 19-64, and >65 years, respectively. This assessment provides valuable information such as the probability of illness associated with the consumption of shellfish and it also provides a reference for further in-depth QRA of NoVs in shellfish or other foods.