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On Sovereign Credit Ratings and Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy

Using foreign currency long-term sovereign rating data from 93 countries and for more than 30 years, panel data econometric analyses show non-monotonic relation between pro-cyclicality of government consumption and sovereign risk scores. That is, countries with limited access to foreign credits due to their relatively low credit ratings record more pro-cyclical fiscal policy than countries with higher sovereign ratings as well as countries being shut out from international borrowings. Results imply that vulnerable countries are more constrained in borrowing during economic downturns and so must reinforce fiscal disciplines to repay debts in recessions. Perception of default risk, which varies over the business cycle, accelerates pro-cyclical fiscal policy in countries with limited access to international credits.