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The estimation of lifetime emigration from data on the residence of children: the case of Colombia.


 Information on the place of residence of surviving children as reported by their mothers is used to estimate the level of lifetime emigration. The analysis is carried out on data from the 1980 National Household Survey (NHS). Additional information on specific country of residence allows the estimation of the number of Colombian emigrants present in Venezuela. The number of children who were living abroad at the time of the survey, classified by sex and by 5-year age group of mother, are used to estimate the total level of lifetime emigration and the age distribution of emigrants. Once the age distribution of surviving children is available, it is used to infer that of the emigrant children as reported by their mothers. In the case of Colombia, there were no emigrant sons reported by women under 30, and only 1 emigrant daughter was reported by women in that age group. The outcome implies not only that the incidence of independent emigration below age 15 is very low but also that it is probably not reflected accurately by a survey of the size of the 1980 NHS. Once the distribution of emigrants whose mothers are alive and living in their country of origin is obtained, it is a simple matter to adjust the figures for the incidence of maternal orphanhood. The estimation of those emigrating with their mothers is affected by the greatest degree of arbitrariness. Finally, to conclude the estimation procedure, allowance must be made for the incidence of orphanhood among the offspring of emigrant mothers. The emigration estimates derived from indirect data fall far short of the standards of reliability associated with other types of indirect estimates; nevertheless, they can be very useful tools in assessing the plausibility of claims that are too often the only information available on international migration.
