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Flexible Bayesian P-splines for smoothing age-specific spatio-temporal mortality patterns

In this paper age–space–time models based on one and two-dimensional P-splines with B-spline bases are proposed for smoothing mortality rates, where both fixed relative scale and scale invariant two-dimensional penalties are examined. Model fitting and inference are carried out using integrated nested Laplace approximations, a recent Bayesian technique that speeds up computations compared to McMC methods. The models will be illustrated with Spanish breast cancer mortality data during the period 1985–2010, where a general decline in breast cancer mortality has been observed in Spanish provinces in the last decades. The results reveal that mortality rates for the oldest age groups do not decrease in all provinces.