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COVID-19 in Jundiai/SP: temporal dynamics of notifications and spatial analysis of seroepidemiological prevalence

Background and Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic brought a challenging scenario for public health worldwide, due to little knowledge about the infection and the exponential increase in new cases. This study aims to analyze the temporal trend and the spatial distribution of the positive cases for COVID-19 in the city of Jundiai/SP, Brazil, as well as its correlation with the income and population density of the neighborhoods. Methods: Cross-sectional study, conducted from February to June 2020. Data were obtained from cases confirmed by the Epidemiological Surveillance and by a seroepidemiological survey carried out in two stages: 1) with symptomatic users for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome who sought care in Basic Health Units;2) probabilistic sampling of households. An analysis of the time series of the cases confirmed by the Epidemiological Surveillance was carried out and maps with Kernel density and Local Moran Index (p <0.05) of the cases diagnosed in the seroepidemiological survey were prepared. Results: There was an increase in the number of cases in the period studied (2.35%), as well as the heterogeneous distribution in the territory, with a concentration in peripheral areas of the city. There was weak spatial autocorrelation between average per capita income (I = 0.11;p value <0.001) and population density by neighborhood (I = 0.05;p value = 0.03). Conclusion: The analysis of infection behavior in time and space can contribute to coping actions based on local needs.