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Uncertainty in the Extrapolation from Individual Effects to Impacts upon Landscapes

Uncertainty is inherent in extrapolating from effects upon the individual to alterations in ecological structure or function. Subtle differences in individuals within a population can give rise to significant evolutionary events. Populations are part of ecological structures, systems that are clearly complex, requiring an understanding of the interacting components, stochastic inputs and spatial scales. A series of patch-dynamic models is used to illustrate the importance of spatial arrangement and initial population size in predicting effects at a landscape level. The importance of understanding the spatial structure of a population in uncertainty reduction is addressed.