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The shape of evolution: a comparison of real and random clades

The history of life is replete with apparent order. Much of this order may reflect the deterministic causes conventionally invoked, but we cannot be sure until we measure and subtract the order that arises in simple random systems. Consequently, we have constructed a random model that builds evolutionary trees by allowing lineages to branch and become extinct at equal probabilities. We proceed by dividing our simulated tree into clades and by comparing their sizes and shapes with the patterns exhibited by “real” clades as recorded by fossils. We regard the similarity of real and random clades as the outstanding result of this comparison. In both real and random systems, extinct clades arising after an “ecological barrel” had been filled have their maximum diversity at the midpoint of their duration; clades arising during the initial “filling” reach an earlier climax during this preequilibrial period of rapid diversification. However, some potential differences also emerge. Clades still living are much larger than extinct clades. We may attribute this to the morphological superiority of survivors, but we can also simulate it in a model that chooses the originators of clades at random. Real clades undergo greater fluctuations in diversity than do random clades, but the effect is not marked.