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The social costs of tobacco advertising and promotions.

Recent longitudinal evidence suggests that approximately 34% of all new tobacco experimentation occurs because of tobacco advertising and promotions. Based on this figure, in this paper we estimate the long-term impact on mortality and morbidity, as well as the economic and medical costs associated with smoking that is attributable to cigarette advertising and promotions in the United States. This study used several data sources, including the Teenage Attitudes and Practices Survey (TAPS), the 1993 and 1996 Adolescent California Tobacco Surveys (CTS), and the Food and Drug Administration's estimates of annual illness-related benefits of alternative effectiveness rates of banning tobacco advertising. Our resulting estimates are that in each year between 1988 and 1998, tobacco advertising and promotional activities generated approximately 193000 additional adult smokers who began smoking as adolescents because of advertisements and promotions. That decade of tobacco advertising and promotions will also result in approximately 46400 smoking-attributable deaths per year and 698400 years of potential life lost, which translates into costs of approximately $21.7 billion to $33.3 billion in total medical, productivity, and mortality-related costs. Even accounting for quitting behavior, each year of advertising-attributable smoking increases the number of smokers in the population. We conclude that annual costs can be expected to continue to increase if tobacco advertising and promotional activities are not effectively eliminated. If all tobacco industry advertising and promotional activities were banned for the next 25 years, nearly 60000 smoking-attributable deaths per year could be avoided, saving nearly 900000 life-years, $2.6 billion in excess medical expenses, and between $28 billion and $43 billion in mortality costs.