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Probability of Failure Using the Kriging - Controlled Stratification Method and Statistical Inference

Studying the effects of Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) requires the assessment of the risk of failure of the victim's equipment. As the characteristics of the aggression and the equipment are uncertain, the constraint generated by the aggression and the susceptibility of the equipment are modelled by random variables. In this communication we adopt the Kriging - Controlled Stratification method to assess the probability distribution of the constraint based on numerical simulations and we make use of statistical inference to assess the susceptibility distribution. We show how to combine them in order to deduce the probability of failure of equipment subject to an IEMI. Through the analysis of a test case, we highlight that this methodology provides a credible framework to estimate the probability of failure.