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The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline for Peace-building in the South Caucasus

• The EU should emphasise the three main successful points of its bilateral cooperation with the countries in the South Caucasus region: energy, security and transportation. • This includes construction and extension of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP, often called ‘TCP’, and which is already a Project of Common Interest), gas from which, in the new geopolitical situation, could transit through Armenia from Azerbaijan to Turkey. • This pipeline, which can be designed to be hydrogen-ready, would satisfy the EU’s energy requirements at the lowest cost possible and without contravening the principles of the European Green Deal. • The TCP’s first string would enable Armenia to buy gas from Turkmenistan; alternatively, Armenia could be supplied through the Georgian pipeline system if the TCP is constructed through the established Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route. • Along with the complementary White Stream pipeline for the TCP’s second string, it would enhance (1) security of supply by diversifying routes, (2) sustainability and (3) competition. • The White Stream (WS) pipeline, under the Black Sea, would feed the Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria (BRUA) pipeline and other connectors, bringing competitively priced gas from new sources to Baumgarten via the lowest-cost transportation routes. • The WS pipeline would thereby enable increased competition, increase market integration and facilitate the deployment of renewable energy sources at larger scales, in both the EU and the Energy Community. • Joint efforts should now be further encouraged on the basis of the new realities in the South Caucasus and Caspian Sea regions, in particular their significant potential to supply blue hydrogen. • The mid-January 2021 agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to develop jointly the mid-Caspian Dostlug oil field, over which they have disagreed for over two decades, erases the last obstacle to constructing the TCP. • Turkmenistan is the only available non-Russian source of natural gas (and of blue hydrogen) that has the potential to make the transition more efficient and less expensive while at the same time enhancing the security of supply. • The project’s success will improve the humanitarian situation in the South Caucasus, further enhance EU prestige in the region, and create the basis for establishing a genuine South Caucasus Community with transnational institutions, as Brussels envisioned 20 years ago. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline for Peace-building in the South Caucasus*