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Comparing solar data from NWP models for Brazilian territory

Brazil is experiencing continuous growth in the solar energy market over the last years, and it is expected that solar power plants will have a significant contribution to the Brazilian energy matrix soon. The solar irradiance variability is an important issue due to its impact on electricity distribution systems. However, solar energy variability has not been comprehensively evaluated in Brazil. The study aimed to assess the capacity of two numerical models of mesoscale in simulating the solar radiation conditions in the Northeastern region of Brazil. For this, a case study was conducted comparing the surface solar irradiation data acquired in 41 automated weather stations operating in the study area and managed by the Brazilian Institute of Meteorology with estimates provided by two weather mesoscale models BRAMS and WRF. The study indicated that the difference between the model’s uncertainties is small (typically less than 5\%) when evaluating the entire region of the Brazilian Northeast. However, local comparisons may show more notable discrepancies reflecting uncertainties in the estimates produced by the models.