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International Law and Institutions in the Trump Era

This paper has two goals. First, it documents President Donald Trump’s primary influences on international law and institutions in his first two years in office. Second, it seeks to assess the medium- and long-term impact of those influences. The vast majority of international law and institutions remains untouched by Trump’s actions. He has brought significant change to high-profile international treaties and institutions such as the Paris Agreement, the Iran deal, and the global trade system. His verbal attacks on U.S. allies and international institutions that traditionally garnered U.S. support (such as NATO) promote disharmony among these allies, diminish trust in the institutions, and make it easier for leaders in other nations to adopt a similarly disdainful attitude. Trump’s influence has been significant. But other U.S. presidents have assaulted international institutions only to be followed by a president who embraces those institutions and dims the impact of the assaults. Trump’s ultimate impact will depend on who succeeds him in office. It will also depend on larger trends in international affairs, such as the rise of China and the re-ascendancy of Russia as global powers, the many failures of liberal internationalism, and the general disenchantment in liberal democracies with distant, elite, global institutions. These factors were operating before and independent of Trump, many of them were pushing in the same general direction as Trump, and they will make it challenging to return to anything like the pre-Trump international status quo.
 Keywords: Donald Trump, Liberal Internationalism, International Order, Paris Agreement, International Trade, WTO, Iran Deal, INF Treaty, United Nations, NATO, Syria, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Laws of War