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Projecting Development of Losses During an Accident Year

Abstract A method is presented for projecting the development of reported losses, or of paid losses, or the number of reported cases, for each of the first 12 months of an accident year. The method is based on the relationship between development patterns after the first 12 months of an accident year and development patterns during the first 12 months. A way of deriving the development pattern of an individual accident quarter or accident month is also described. It is pointed out that the method can be useful for underwriting decisions for which the most recent experience is relevant, or for estimating loss reserves at the end of a quarter or when earned premium differs greatly by month or quarter.