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A Note on Identifying Likely IPO Bankruptcies: A Symphonic Paradox

This paper analyzes prospectus data for initial public offerings (IPOs) to develop an analytical tool to predict IPO survival beyond the first three years following the year of issuance. A logit regression yielded four significant ratios, three of which are related to capital structure decisions. The model correctly classified 31 percent of bankrupt IPOs and over 90 percent of survivors. Prediction of IPO failure within three years is difficult because IPOs are often “packaged” to sell.