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Cloud Motion Vector System to Detect Clouds and Forecast Real-time Photovoltaic System Performance

Improving PV power production forecast capabilities is critical to cost-effectively integrate more solar into electric transmission and distribution systems. Varying weather patterns such as a cloud rolling over a PV array is the main cause of voltage fluctuation and flicker. To solve this problem, we propose an intelligent low-cost Cloud Motion Vector Sensor (CMVS) system design that utilizes an array of ambient light sensors and a real-time prediction algorithm based upon gradient matrix and peak detection methods. The algorithm will compute the cloud direction and cloud speed. Based on these cloud motion parameters, the system will be capable of detecting a moving cloud and predict its time-of-arrival at the PV site, as well as forecasting PV power output. When the forecast falls below a certain level, a signal at the output is triggered to instantaneously turn on the constant backup power supply until the optimal operation is restored. CMVS system will prevent voltage fluctuations and cloud-induced power transients in the power distribution network as well as potentially helping grid operators better understand and mitigate the effects of PV power variability on grid planning and operations. We include the video of this project with this report.