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Predicting the Future: How Affect-Related Personality Traits Influence Likelihood Judgments of Future Events

The authors examine the possibility that personality traits linked to positive and negative affect susceptibilities also influence performance on a mood-sensitive cognitive task: likelihood judgments of possible positive and negative future events. In Study 1, participants (n = 104) filled out personality questionnaires, rated their current mood states, and rated the likelihood that positive and negative future events would occur. Results confirmed the hypothesis that affect-related traits predict likelihood judgments. Moreover, the personality effects were not mediated by current mood states. A second study (n = 81) replicated these personality effects on judgment in the context of manipulated moods (positive, sad, fearful, and neutral). As in Study 1, personality effects on judgment were not mediated by mood states. The authors suggest that the traits of extraversion and neuroticism include stable cognitive structures that can bias judgment in affect-congruent directions.