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A comparison of children and adults' judgements and decisions based on verbal uncertainty statements

Children distinguish less well than adolescents the numerical 
meaning conveyed by verbal probabilities (e.g., Mullet & 
Rivet, 1991). Little is known, however, about children's 
ability to grasp the directionality of verbal probabilities 
(Teigen & Brun, 1995). We expected children to only be 
influenced by directionality and congruence of statement 
framing with their goal. Thirty children and 29 adults made 
probability judgements and decisions in a treasure hunt 
context. Results revealed that children are sensitive to the 
numerical meaning of verbal probabilities in decisions, and 
also in probability judgements related to goal-incongruent 
statement framings. The different demands implied by 
judging probabilities and decision-making will be discussed, 
as well as the independence of directionality and numerical 
value in adults' interpretation of verbal probabilities.