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Small area estimation--synthetic and other procedures, 1968-1978.

Methods for obtaining small area estimates which have emerged over the past decade are reviewed with particular emphasis given to synthetic estimation, a procedure originally developed at the National Center for Health Statistics which has found wide acceptance because of its simplicity and intuitive appeal, and yet has provoked much controversy because of its lack of good demonstrable statistical properties and its equivocal results when subjected to empirical evaluation. The various methods of obtaining small area estimates are discussed in terms of their statistical properties, the feasibility of using them and the potential scope of their application. Finally, some recommendations are made concerning possible avenues of future research in small area estimation, and some tentative guidelines are given for choosing between alternative existing methods.