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Tropical cyclone inner core structure and intensity change

TROPICAL CYCLONE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE This dissertation focuses on two projects that examine aspects of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) storm-scale dynamics and intensity. TC intensity change is a forecast challenge combining influences from the large-scale environment, the underlying ocean state, and the storm-scale dynamics within the TC. In particular structures and processes involving the TC eye are observed to have an impact on current and future intensity. The first project examines observations of TC eyes from aircraft reconnaissance flown into Atlantic basin TCs over the period 1989-2008. Relationships between TC eye diameter and type and intensity and intensity change are investigated. Consistent with previous studies, eye diameter does not display a direct relationship with intensity. Smaller eye diameters are observed at all intensities, though both the most and least intense TCs with eyes have smaller average eye diameters. Smaller eyes also have the largest variability in intensity change. Larger eyes show smaller ranges for intensity change, and the largest eyes tend to maintain or weaken in intensity. TCs with eyes reported had higher intensification rates and higher probabilities of undergoing rapid intensification.