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Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America

Abstract This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and (ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated (i.e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and cali...