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An Air Combat Effectiveness Study (ACES) Program1

History has demonstrated that there is a pressing need for improved selection, training, and management procedures for fighter pilots. In World War II, only one in twenty pilots became an ace. The U.S. Air Force kill ratio in Southeast Asia was approximately 2.5 to 1. In contrast, the Israelis claim to have a kill ratio of 60 to 1. This feasibility study focuses upon enhancing our record of air-to-air combat kills through more stringent and comprehensive selection procedures. Specifically, empirical evidence is presented which demonstrates that a program can be developed to select pilots who will be effective in air-to-air combat. From reviews of U.S. and foreign selection research dating from World War II to the present and an assessment of pilot opinion from hundreds of aces, 45 factors were identified as potential predictors of combat effectiveness. Of these 45 factors, only 10 are adequately evaluated within current military selection programs upon entrance into pilot training. Assessment of the remaining 35 untapped factors is within our technological reach. In fact, many of these factors can be assessed by tests which are presently available. An Air Combat Effectiveness Study (ACES) program is recommended which would provide selection test measures for virtually all of the factors identified as underlying combat effectiveness. As part of the ACES program, selection test measures would be correlated with performance in air combat maneuvering ranges, thereby providing a method for selecting fighter pilots during peacetime. Armed with these selection test scores and an effectively executed validation program, researchers will, for the first time in history, be able to specify a definitive profile of the ace fighter pilot.