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Energy needs modeling for urban households

This paper proposes a mathematical predictive model of power energy consumption per household in the district of Antsiranana. Based on the national statistical institute INSTAT, the power consumption depends on the demographic population category. Based on the general daily life equipment per household, the ordinary, medium and rich categories are defined in this investigation. Indeed, the trend from the last two decades yearly survey illustrates how the energy consumption in the district of Antsiranana varies. Based on the time dependent fitting approach, the mathematical model of the energy needs as established. The reliability of the proposed model was assessed with the correlation coefficient R2. Based on the data from the last decade, the relevance of the model was investigated. Then, prediction of the energy needs up to 2023 was proposed with 5% relative inaccuracy. Thanks to its simplicity, the method can be useful for the sustainable development. However, further improvement is still needed in order to forecast the energy consumption for tens future decades.