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Projected changes in temperature and rainfall during 21 century simulated by CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0 model under RCP based scenarios in Punjab

A study was conducted to assess the projected changes in climatic parameters during 21 century in Punjab state. The CSIRO-Mk 3-6-0 model simulated data was downscaled from the website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ for seven locations under four RCP scenarios. The two future periods, i.e., mid-century (MC: 2020-2049) and end-century (EC: 2066-2095) were assessed on annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi) basis. During mid-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0 to 1.5 °C, 0.3 to 1.5 °C and 0 to 1.6 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 1.1 to 3.1 °C, 0.1 to 4.8 °C and 0.3 to 1.8 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 33 to 554 mm, 20 to 443 mm and 20 to 110 mm, respectively. During the end-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0.8 to 4.4°C, 0.8 to 4.3 °C and 0.6 to 4.9 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 0.4 to 6.6 °C, 0.5 to 6.3 °C and 0.0 to 5.5 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 3 to 610 mm, 14 to 506 mm and 17 to 107 mm, respectively. Rainfall was projected to increase at Abohar (11-41 mm) while it may decline at Amritsar (49-128 mm), Ballowal Saunkhri (501-554 mm), Ludhiana (131-152 mm), Patiala (148-187), Bathinda (49-82 mm) and Faridkot (33-67 mm).


Introduction
Climate change is occurring at a fast pace in recent times and footprints of these changes are becoming visible globally. Though it has been an age old phenomenon but recently due to unprecedented increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere caused by anthropogenic activities it has gained momentum during 20 th century (Khan et al., 2009). Climate change has impacted almost all parts of the world, but the Asian continent is considered to be the most vulnerable region to shocks of climate change and climate variability due to various stresses and low adaptive capacity (IPCC : 2013;FAO, 2006). The impacts of climate change on hydrology are evaluated on the basis of climate change projections provided by global (GCM) and regional climate models (RCMs). General circulation models provide large-scale projections for various climate variables (IPCC, 2013). With a variety of numerical formulations and physical parameterization schemes, GCM's provide a range of climate change projections, implying that the uncertainty of the models themselves contributes to overall uncertainty when assessing climate change impacts (Chen et al., 2017).
According to IPCC (2014) the downscaled data for temperature and rainfall for the period (1860-2099) based on the multi-model and multi-scenario are now available. In India, during the past few years, several high resolution RCMs have been used by different research groups at a regional scale in climate change analysis. Chaturvedi et al. (2012) using the CMIP5 climate projections for India observed great ambiguity in precipitation projections, however, temperature is probably going to increase by 3-4 °C under the RCP 8.5 scenario by the end of 21 st century.
A study conducted in Punjab by Prabhjyot-Kaur et al. (2017) has shown that by the end of 21 st century rise in the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall ranged between 2.0 to 2.2 °C, 3.3 to 5.4 °C and 33 to 66% respectively under different scenarios of climate change in agro-climatic zone II (Ballowal Saunkhri); whereas in agro-climatic zone III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, Patiala and Jalandhar) the values were 0.4 to 5.8 °C, 2.5 to 7.4 °C and 3 to 62% respectively, while and in agro-climatic zone V (Bathinda) the values were 0.5 to 4.0 °C, 4.7 to 7.7 °C and 58 to 69% respectively. Dar et al. (2019) used a Global Climate Model HAD GEM2-ES under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for climate prediction at Ludhiana in Punjab. This study spanned 46 years of baseline  as well as two future periods, i.e., mid-century (2020-2050) and endcentury . The outcomes showed that the temperature would increase by 1.56 °C and precipitation would decline by 98 mm in mid-century (2020-2050); and 3.11 °C and 90 mm in end-century (2060-2090), respectively under RCP 4.5. In RCP 8.5 the increase in temperature and precipitation was 2.75 °C and 153 mm, respectively in mid-century and the corresponding values in end-century were 5.46 °C and 251 mm, respectively.
Currently, several GCMs are available which can be downscaled to the respective grids and ready-to-use information can be accessed on climate change under different RCP scenarios during the near future and end of the 21 st century.
Keeping these different scenarios in mind, the results of the general circulation model (CSIRO-Mk 3-6-0) have been presented in our paper under different scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 for the near future and end of 21 st century. Such information will guide scientists in planning future research and help policy makers while planning for futuristic agriculture.

Materials and method
The study was carried out for Ballowal Saunkhri ( locations in Punjab state. Data for meteorological parameters like maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and rainfall (RF) on daily basis was downscaled from General circulation model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) available at the website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar. org/MarkSimGCM/ for these locations. The daily weather data for the past 8 years on temperature and rainfall recorded at the agro meteorological observatory was used for calibration (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and validation (2016-2017) of the baseline data by developing correction factors using difference method given as under : The statistical analysis of the model simulated data before and after bias removal along with actual observed data are given in Table 1. The bias correction in the modeled data was done at monthly scale for Tmax and RF, while Tmin data was used without any bias removal. The analysis of the daily data was done on annual and seasonal (kharif : May-October and rabi : November-April) basis for temperature and rainfall. The statistical analysis of the projected data during the near (2020-2049) and end  of 21 st century under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) scenarios was compared with the climatic normal. The climatic normal were worked from actual available records), i.e., 1970-2015 for Ludhiana, Amritsar andPatiala;1984-20151977-20152000-2015for Faridkot and 2004-2015 Abohar.

Maximum temperature under different RCPs scenarios
The annual, kharif and rabi maximum temperature (Tmax) at different locations of Punjab during the baseline period, mid and end 21 st century have been presented in Tables 2 and 3. During the mid-century (Table 2), the Tmax is predicted to increase for annual, kharif and rabi, respectively from baseline period in the range from 1.1 to 1.5 °C, 1.1 to 1.5 °C and 0.9 to 1.4 °C at Ballowal Saunkhri; 0.4 to 1.0 °C, 0.6 to 1.2 °C and 0.2 to 0.7 °C at Amritsar; 0.5 to 1.0 °C, 0.5 to 0.9 °C and 0.6 to 1.0 °C at Ludhiana; 0.9 to 1.0°C, 0.9 to 1.3°C and 0.8 to 1.3°C at Patiala; 0 to 0.5 °C, 0.1 to 0.6 °C and 0 to 0.4 °C at Bathinda; 0.4 to 0.9 °C, 0.3 to 0.8 °C and 0.5 to 1.0 °C at Abohar; 0.6 to 1.1 °C, 0.2 to 0.7 °C and 1.1 to 1.6 °C at Faridkot under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
The value of standard deviation and coefficient of variation (%) are respectively, ranged from 6.79 to 6.83 °C and 21.61 to 21.92%, 3.55 to 3.64 °C and 10.0 to 10.13% and 6.29 to 6.35 °C and 23.41 to 23.97% at Ballowal Saunkhri; 7.75 to 7.78 °C and 24.88 to 25.27%, 4.07 to 4.08 °C and 11.07 to 11.27% and 6.64 to 6. During the end-century (Table 3), at different locations of Punjab under study, the Tmax is predicted to increase for three seasons respectively, from baseline

Season and location
Baseline Period RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5

Minimum temperature under different RCPs scenarios
The annual, kharif and rabi minimum temperature (Tmin) at different locations during the baseline period, mid and end 21 st century have been presented in Tables 4  and 5. During the mid-century (Table 4), the Tmin is predicted to increase for annual, kharif and rabi respectively, from baseline period in the range from 2.5 to 3.1 °C, 4.2 to 4.8 °C and 0.5 to 1.1 °C at Ballowal Saunkhri; 2.3 to 2.9 °C, 3.4 to 4.0 °C and 1.2 to 1.8 °C at Amritsar; 2.0 to 2.6 °C, 3.4 to 4.0 °C and 0.6 to 1.1 °C at Ludhiana; 1.5 to 2.1 °C, 2.9 to 3.2 °C and 0.3 to 0.9 °C at Patiala; 1.7 to 2.3 °C, 2.8 to 3.4 °C and 0.3 to 1.0 °C at Bathinda; 1.1 to 1.7 °C, 3.1 to 3.7 °C and -0.2 to -0.9 °C at Abohar; 1.2 to 1.9 °C, 0.1 to 0.4 °C and 2.9 to 3.5 °C at Faridkot under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
During the end-century (Table 5), at different locations of Punjab under study, the Tmin is predicted to increase for three seasons respectively, from baseline period in the range from 3.2 to 6.6 °C, 4.9 to 6.3 °C and 1.4 to 4.8 °C at Ballowal Saunkhri; 3.1 to 6.5 °C, 4.0 to 5.5 °C and 2.0 to 5.5 °C at Amritsar; 2.8 to 6.1 °C, 4.0 to 5.4 °C and 1.4 to 4.8 °C at Ludhiana; 2.3 to 5.5 °C, 3.4 to 4.7 °C and 1.1 to 4.4 °C at Patiala; 2.5 to 6.1 °C, 3.5 to 4.9 °C and 1.2 to 5.1 °C at Bathinda; 1.9 to 5.6 °C, 3.8 to 5.2 °C and 1.3 to 4.0 °C at Abohar; 0.4 to 2.5 °C, 0.5 to 1.9 °C and -1.0 to -2.6 °C at Faridkot under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.

Rainfall under different RCPs scenarios
The annual, kharif and rabi rainfall (RF) at different locations of Punjab during the baseline period, mid and end 21 st century have been presented in Tables 6 and 7. During mid-century, (

Season and location
Baseline period RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 Total (   The value of standard deviation and coefficient of variation (%) ranges from 4.60 to 5.90 mm and 374.9 to 382.5%, 6.10 to 8.0 mm and 288.9 to 293.6% and 1.60 to 2.20 mm and 523.2 to 545.1% at Ballowal Saunkhri; 5.70 to 7.70 mm and 357.3 to 409.8%, 7.70 to 10.4 mm and 272.5 to 313.2% and 1.90 to 3.10 mm and 469.3 to 533.3% at Amritsar; 5.50 to 6.70 mm and 347.8 to 400.0%, 7.10 to 9.10 mm and 267.5 to 306.0% and 1.80 to 2.90 mm and 476.0 to 640.8% at Ludhiana; 5.50 to 6.90 mm and 352.7 to 378.0%, 7.20 to 9.30 mm and 270.5 to 283.3% and 1.70 to 2.50 mm and 515.4 to 551.4% at Patiala, 4.10 to 4.80 mm and 357.4 to 384.6%, 5.30 to 6.50 mm and 272.0 to 289.1% and 1.20 to 1.60 mm and 511.4 to 521.1% at Bathinda; 3.40 to 3.80 mm and 365.4 to 381.5%, 4.50 to 5.10 mm and 279.9 to 273.2% and 1.30 to 1.40 mm and 508.1 to 564.2% increased at Abohar; 364.5 to 388.3 mm and 278.5 to 296.1%, 5.10 to 6.60 mm and 468.0 to 519.0% and 1.10 to 1.60 mm and 57.60 to 61.60% at Faridkot, respectively.

Conclusions
The CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model projections indicate that the climate in Punjab may become hotter and drier during the 21 st century. During the mid-century period of 2020-2049, the annual, kharif and rabi season Tmax is projected to increase from baseline period between 0 to 1.5 °C, 0.3 to 1.5 °C and 0 to 1.6 °C, respectively; Tmin to increase from baseline period between 1.1 to 3.1 °C, 0.1 to 4.8 °C and 0.3 to 1.8 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 33 to 554 mm, 20 to 443 mm and 20 to 110 mm, respectively. The rate of temperature increase is higher during the end-century as compare to mid-century period. Rainfall is also projected to increase at Abohar (11-41 mm) while it may decline at Amritsar (49-128 mm), Ballowal Saunkhri (501-554 mm), Ludhiana (131-152 mm), Patiala (148-187), Bathinda (49-82 mm) and Faridkot (33-67 mm).
Comparison of maximum and minimum temperatures reveals Tmin increase to be more than that in Tmax. This implies that the diurnal range in temperature would decrease which is not favorable for enhancing crop production. Punjab state economy is not only largely dependent on agriculture but it also contributes significantly to rice and wheat reserve pool of the country. In order to maintain the sustainability of crop production and food supply, the state has to evolve suitable crop contingency planning in view of climatic changes.

Acknowledgement
The results given in the article are a part of the study was carried out for Ph. D research work in Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The simulated GCM data used in the study was obtained from website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ at daily interval under RCP scenarios for stations in Punjab state. The funding received from Science and Engineering Research Board, New Delhi through Core Grant project funding no. CRG/2019/002856 : Optimizing cereal productivity under RCP projected climatic scenarios by mid and end of 21 st century in Punjab is duly acknowledged.

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