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[Prediction of potential distribution of the invasive species Procambarus clarkii in China based on ecological niche models].

Procambarus clarkii was introduced into China as an important aquatic product in early 20th century. It has characteristics of high fertility, rapid growth, adaptability and digging burrows, which could cause damage of crops, cropland and facilities, decrease local biodiversity and thus threaten local ecosystem. Thus, predicting the potential distribution of P. clarkii in response to climate change was essential for preventing and monitoring this species. Based on the distribution of P. clarkii, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) models were used to predict its distribution in China under current climate and four climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) in two periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Then, the modeling results were tested by ROC curves. The results showed that under current climate, the highly suitable region for distribution predicted by the MaxEnt and GARP models were Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui along the Yangtze River. The main environmental variables affecting its distribution were mean temperature of the coldest quarter, minimum temperature of the warmest month, and temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the driest month. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable area of P. clarkii distribution varied in 2061-2080. The total suitable area of P. clarkii would increase under RCP2.6 and RCP 4.5, whereas under RCP 8.5 the suitable area of P. clarkii would increase, and then decrease. In RCP 6.0, there was no change. The suitable areas of P. clarkii would disperse to different latitude areas and migrate toward high altitude.