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[A cohort study on the predictive value of factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death among people over 40 years of age].

OBJECTIVE
To explore the factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death events among people over 40 years of age in Shandong area, China.


METHODS
Baseline survey was carried out in 1991. A total number of 11,008 adults over 40 years old had been studied in Shandong province. Data on cardiocerebro death was collected. The correlation between influencing factors and cardio-cerebro vascular death events was analyzed by Cox regression model.


RESULTS
Totally, 434 cardio-cerebro death events occurred among the 11,008 subjects during the 8-year follow-up study. Cardio-cerebro death events were related to systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, smoking, stroke history and age. Data from Cox regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 2.862 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.976-4.144] times for those people having stroke history. When systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure increased by every 10 mm Hg, the relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.171 (95% CI: 1.033-1.328), 1.214 (95% CI: 1.044-1.413) respectively. it was found that a 1.239 (95% CI: 1.088-1.553) times higher in smokers than non-smokers on relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events. However, the predictive values of the influencing factors for cardio-cerebro vascular death were different among population of different years of age. The relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.366 (95% CI: 1.102-1.678) times for each 10 mm Hg increase of diastolic blood pressure in 40-59 years old population. However, the effect was taken place by systolic blood pressure in 60-74 years old population,with a relative risk of 1.201 (95% CI: 1.017-1.418) for each 10 mm Hg increase. Age seemed the only significant factor for cardio-cerebro vascular death events on population aged more than 75 years old. Conclusion The predictive values of the risk factors were different among age groups. The different risk factors should be taken care according to the difference of age.