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Rebalancing China’s Growth

The sustainability of China’s growth has moved center stage. After three decades of exceptionally rapid growth, the sustainability of this growth in terms of the environment, social stability, and even GDP growth itself is being widely debated. As a harmonious society—one of the proclaimed goals of China’s leadership—aims for more equitable and environmentally sustainable growth, the quality and efficiency of growth are now as important as its speed.1 This chapter argues that more sustainable growth requires greater reliance on services and less on industry, more reliance on factor productivity growth and less on capital accumulation, and more reliance on domestic demand and less on net exports. It reviews China’s growth experience over the past 30 years, identifies key imbalances in China’s growth pattern, and provides two policy scenarios for China’s future, one illustrating the consequences of continued growth along past trends and the other spelling out the implications of a set of policies that would rebalance the economy in the direction of meeting the goals of a harmonious society.