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Buying the hype? Assessing the impact of top-drafted rookies on spectator attendance in the NBA

ABSTRACT Recent sports economics literature has focused on ‘superstar effects,’ or the independent impact of certain exceptional players on fan attendance at live events. This paper investigates the effect of top-drafted rookies on game attendance in the National Basketball Association from the 2012–13 through 2018–19 seasons. Hypothesizing that the nature of modern basketball could lend unique popularity to top draft picks during their rookie seasons, I find that the presence of top-ten draftees on both home and visiting teams is associated with average increases between 150 and 190 spectators per game throughout the second half of their rookie seasons. These marginal effects are statistically indistinguishable from the impact of an additional All-Star player on the visiting team. Unlike previous work, the censored regression model used in this paper accounts for teams’ use of standing room to generate attendance beyond their listed arena capacities, a relevant consideration in over a quarter of the 8,594-game sample.