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Predictability of seasonal east coast winter storm surge impacts with application to New York's Long Island

The characteristics of seasons with enhanced east coast winter storm (ECWS) and storm surge activity are identified from among a set of global atmospheric circulation indices and local land and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Without regard for storm strength or surge potential, the most active ECWS seasons occur in association with El Niño events. There is also some indication that such seasons are preferred under the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In terms of storm surge potential, forecasts of strong ECWS activity are more skillful than direct forecasts of the number of extreme surge events. In both cases, SSTs off the southeast US coast and in the Gulf of Mexico differentiate high seasonal activity from relatively inactive seasons. Warmer‐than‐normal SSTs in both regions during summer provide a measure of storm activity in the subsequent winter.