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Fiscal Cyclicality in the Brazilian Economy: Something Is Changing

ABSTRACT This article provides empirical evidence of the degree of fiscal cyclicality in the Brazilian economy from 2000 to 2010. The degree of fiscal cyclicality is estimated through OLS and GMM models for three different time samples with the objective of observing a change in the stance in the conduct of fiscal policy. The fiscal policy from January 2000 to December 2010 was countercyclical. However from 2000 to 2007 the search for credibility implied a cyclical fiscal policy. In contrast, after 2007, the possibility of using a countercyclical fiscal policy became feasible.