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Is it possible to predict outcome in pulmonary ECMO? Analysis of pre-operative risk factors

Serious pulmonary failure may be treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) when other treatment has failed. The aim of this study was to analyze pre-operative risk factors of early mortality in patients who underwent either veno-arterial (VA) ECMO or veno-venous (VV) ECMO for pulmonary failure. We studied a total of 26 risk factors in 72 patients with severe pulmonary insufficiency treated with ECMO. All consecutive cases treated at our institution between Sept 1990 and Aug 2007 were included. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed on 26 risk factors. The end point was early mortality (any death within 30 days of ECMO treatment). Thirty-six (50%) of the patients died within 30 days of treatment. Age, gender, body mass index(BMI)(adults), cause of pulmonary failure, pre-ECMO treatment with nitric oxide(NO), intra-aortic balloon pump(IABP), and type of ventilation did not significantly influence early mortality. Neither pre-operative blood gas results, oxygenation index or pre-operative PaO2/FiO2 ratio, nor mean ventilator days prior to ECMO gave any indications on early mortality. Liver function did not predict early mortality, but pre-ECMO serum creatinine levels were significantly lower in patients who survived. Treatment with ECMO in patients with severe pulmonary failure may save lives. It is, however, difficult to predict outcome when initiating ECMO. In this analysis, only pre-operative serum creatinine levels correlated with survival. None of the other parameters, including those which were used to select patients for ECMO treatment, could significantly predict the outcome.