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Are Chinese Residents Willing to Recycle Express Packaging Waste? Evidence from a Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model

While enriching people’s lives, the rapid development of online shopping has posed a severe challenge to the environment. Questionnaires focusing on the intention to recycle packaging waste are designed. These questionnaires contain first-level variables such as recycling behavior attitude, recycling behavior cognition, situational factors, historical recycling behavior, and recycling behavior intention. With the collected questionnaire data, a regression analysis is first conducted on the selection of variables and the effect of variable prediction. After ensuring the validity of the variables, 15 second-level variables are extracted into eight principal components using principal component analysis. These components serve as input to a Bayesian regularized neural network. Subsequently, a three-layer (8-15-1) neural network model is constructed; the trained neural network model achieves a high degree of fit between the predicted and measured values of the test set, thus further proving the rationality of the selected variables and the neural network model. Finally, this study uses the connection weights matrix of the neural network model and the Garson formula to analyze in depth the specific impact of each second-level variable on the intention to recycle packaging waste. Note that given the particularity of packaging waste recycling behavior, the impact on social norms, recycling behavior knowledge, values, and publicity on behavioral intentions in second-level variables is different from that obtained in similar previous studies.