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Regional personality differences predict variation in COVID-19 infections and social distancing behavior

The early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic revealed stark regional variation in the spread of the virus. Combining self-reported personality data (3.5M people) with COVID-19 prevalence rates and behavioral mobility observations (29M people) in the US and Germany, we show that regional personality differences can help explain the early transmission of COVID-19; this is true even after controlling for a wide array of important socio-demographic, economic, and pandemic-related factors. We use specification curve analyses to test the effects of regional personality in a robust and unbiased way. The results indicate that in the early stages of COVID-19, Openness-to-experience acted as a risk factor while Neuroticism acted as a protective factor. The findings also highlight the complexity of the pandemic by showing that the effects of regional personality can differ (i) across countries (Extraversion), (ii) over time (Openness) and (iii) from those previously observed at the individual level (Agreeableness and Conscientiousness).