Syria strike could send oil prices tumbling, (yes tumbling)


Believe it or not, a Syria strike could send oil prices tumbling -- yes tumbling.

That may seem counter-intuitive, but that's exactly what Cramer is hearing from Carley Garner, the co-founder of DeCarley Trading and author of A Trader's First Book on Commodities.

She tells Cramer that historical patterns would suggest a strike should generate some watershed selling.

Looking back two years, when the US went into Libya, the price of oil domestically dropped by 10% almost immediately. And after America invaded Iraq a decade ago, oil futures tumbled 15%.

That's largely because oil prices tend to rally in anticipation of an attack, but after it happens it becomes a 'sell the news' event.

Garner says technical patterns in the charts of crude oil suggest that history is about to repeat itself, as the US threatens to strike Syria.

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First, Garner says the stochastic oscillator has been in overbought territory since July, and every time the oscillator has reached overbought levels in the last couple of years and then pulled back, the declines have been significant.

Also, looking at the weekly chart, Garner points out that the price of crude is now consolidating in a violent but relatively narrow trading range. That too is bearish.

And she adds that the calendar is bearish for oil. Seasonally oil has a strong tendency to top out in early to mid-September.

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And on top of all that, speculators currently hold record net long positions in oil. That too suggests selling is imminent.

Due to these and other patterns Garner suggests selling into strength.

Looking at how sharp the decline may be, Garner says there's every reason for crude to decline down to $96 and adds if that level doesn't hold, the next level of support should be $90.

*Find out what Garner has to say about gold in the video above.

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