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1 out of 5 men who didn't go to college don’t have jobs. Here’s why

Unemployment rate drops

Erin Wolcott is an assistant professor of economics at Middlebury College.

The unemployment rate has plunged to about the lowest level in half a century. Yet at least one group of Americans is being left behind: men who didn't go to college.


What's driving the employment gap, which has been with us for decades?



My research attempts to get to the bottom of why non-college men aren't working in hopes that it can suggest the right solutions to turn this around.

Employment vs. unemployment

One of the most important measures of an economy is the number of jobs it's creating, typically measured by the unemployment rate. The latest jobs report, which came out on June 1, showed that the rate dipped to 3.8 percent in May, the lowest since 2000. If it falls any more, it'll be the lowest since 1969.





The gap extends to the wages of those who actually had jobs as well. As recently as 1980, real hourly wages for the two groups differed by a mere $7. In 2014, men with at least a little college saw their wages bump up 14 percent to $35 an hour. Meanwhile, pay for those who never attended plunged nearly 20 percent to $20

Modeling the economy

In fact, wages reveal the answer to this puzzle.



They also allow us to run experiments on what would otherwise be untestable hypotheses. An architect might ask: If I build a balcony, will that compromise the building's structural integrity? I asked: If the only things that changed since the 1970s were supply-side factors, what would have happened to employment rates?



That's exactly what my model helped me identify, suggesting that most of the blame goes to demand-side factors like trade and automation, not video games.


Work wanted


While it is true that many non-college men are home playing video games, collecting welfare payments and, unfortunately, addicted to opioids, it's by and large not because they are choosing these over a job. Rather, sadly, it's because they couldn't find a job in the first place.



The Conversation

This article was originally published on The Conversation

Editor's note: This article has been updated to correct the data showing a widening gap between college-educated men and those with no college education. The revised data still show a growing discrepancy but one that isn't as large.

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