Indianapolis is about to be in control of the start of the offseason, which begins Monday for 20 teams.


Colts coach Chuck Pagano appears to be in his final days. It would be stunning if he is still in place by Monday afternoon.

The Colts’ opening will headline the coaching carousel. At least it should if owner Jim Irsay runs a competent search.

That’s the fascinating aspect of this. Will the Colts blow it?

Indianapolis will be the best job available of the five to seven likely to be open.

Why? Because of quarterback Andrew Luck.

The 26-year-old Luck missed most of this season. However, he has already accounted for 113 touchdowns and nearly 16,000 yards of offense in his four-year career.

Luck directed the Colts to the playoffs in his first three seasons.

The Indianapolis job also looks more attractive because the perception that Luck is the entire team faded with the Colts winning five games in his absence.

There are only four coaches in a realistic position to switch jobs that would be quality hires for Indianapolis.

Let’s rank them.

1. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan coach

Why would he want it: Maybe Harbaugh doesn’t like to recruit. It’s hard to envision Harbaugh leaving his alma mater after one season, but this has the "this was the only job I’d leave Michigan for" stink all over it.

Why he’d be a good fit: Harbaugh recruited Luck to Stanford and succeeded with him. He clashed with general manager Trent Baalke with the 49ers, but that wouldn’t be a problem with the Colts. Irsay would be foolish not to give Harbaugh, 52, total control. Harbaugh is in the Colts Ring of Honor after playing for the franchise from 1994-98.

Why he wouldn’t: Harbaugh went 49-22-1 with the 49ers in his four seasons. Oh, that only helps his case? Yeah, I’ve got nothing. Aside from being abrasive, Harbaugh appears as close to perfect as a candidate could be.

2. Sean Payton, Saints coach

Why would he want it: Payton could be tired of dealing with the Saints’ ownership chaos. He also turned 52 on Tuesday and could be looking to launch the second half of his coaching career.

Why he’d be a good fit: Payton and Luck could rule NFL defenses for the next 12 years in a similar fashion to his partnership with Saints quarterback Drew Brees. The future Hall of Famer is still brilliant, but he does turn 37 next month.

Why he wouldn’t: Payton has to consistently win shootouts. In nine years with the Saints, the defense has ranked 23rd or worse in total yards six times.

3. Urban Meyer, Ohio State coach

Why would he want it: Most elite college coaches eventually want to test their abilities at the next level. Meyer has won national titles at Florida and Ohio State. He’s finishing his fourth year with the Buckeyes and could be ready for a new challenge. Lucas Oil Stadium is only 178 miles away from Columbus. NFL jobs featuring young franchise quarterbacks with significant playoff experience don’t open often.

Why he’d be a good fit: The Colts have the speed at receiver Meyer covets with T.Y. Hilton and rookie Phillip Dorsett, as well as the emerging Donte Moncrief.

Why he wouldn’t: Meyer has zero NFL coaching experience.

4. Nick Saban, Alabama coach

Why would he want it: It’s now or never. Saban is 64 years old. His days of being an attractive NFL candidate are dwindling.

Why he’d be a good fit: Saban brings instant credibility with his enormous championship success and the dozens of players he’s coached at LSU and Alabama thriving in the league. He also has NFL experience, having coached Miami from 2005-06, going 15-17, and as a defensive coordinator in Cleveland under Bill Belichick from 1991-94.

Why he wouldn’t: Saban has a coaching style that might be more suited to college players than NFL veterans.

If the Colts don’t make the best hire of the offseason, that will tell you the shape of the franchise under Irsay’s direction. There’s no reason the Colts shouldn’t be able to land a star coach to direct their star quarterback.

Nelson thriving in Cincinnati

There were many Gene Smith blunders during his nightmarish reign as Jaguars general manager.

Cough, third-round punter.

Cough, Blaine Gabbert.

The decision to trade free safety Reggie Nelson in 2010 is a whopper as well.

Nelson picked off five passes as a rookie, but had two in his final 29 games for the Jaguars. Smith dealt Nelson, a former first-round pick, to the Bengals before the 2010 season for cornerback David Jones. Jones was awful and only started five games for the Jaguars.

Five years later, Nelson is still going strong for the Bengals at 32. He is tied for the NFL lead with eight interceptions this season.

The Jaguars have (drum roll, please) eight picks as a team this season.

Nelson’s success is especially galling considering free safety is the worst position on the Jaguars’ roster right now.

Trading Nelson probably isn’t on the Gene Smith Mount Rushmore of mistakes he made with the Jaguars, but it certainly was a gaffe.

The terrible picks

Precision. Your humble seer is just not executing with enough precision.

I’ve clearly lost the race to maturity.

A 3-4 week iced all the momentum I had, leaving me at 37-41 picking against the point spread this season.

New York Jets (minus-3) at Buffalo: Sure, Rex Ryan is a train wreck, but I think the Bills will play spoiler. Bills 24, Jets 20.

Pittsburgh (minus-10) at Cleveland: The Steelers will be seething after getting upset in Baltimore. The Browns will be trying to stay in the race for the top pick. Steelers 38, Browns 14.

Washington (plus-3) at Dallas: I’m not sure why Dallas is favored here. Sure, Washington is locked into the fourth seed in the NFC, but what will the Cowboys be playing for? Redskins 17, Cowboys 13.

Minnesota (plus-3) at Green Bay: The Packers killed the Vikings in Minnesota in the first meeting, but I’m going with the road team in this NFC North title fight. Vikings 27, Packers 24.

New Orleans (plus-4) at Atlanta: The Falcons handed Carolina its first loss last week. That means they’ll regress this week. Saints 34, Falcons 31.

Baltimore (plus-7) at Cincinnati: Ravens coach John Harbaugh showed why he’s one of the best last week. Cincinnati also has an issue at quarterback. Ravens 16, Bengals 13.

Philadelphia (plus-3) at New York Giants: New York has lost five of its last six and is lost defensively. Eagles 30, Giants 28.

Three predictions for Week 17

— The tanking Titans will make whoever Indianapolis starts at quarterback look like Joe Montana as they get routed to secure the No. 1 pick.

— Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson will win the rushing title with 1,510 yards.

— Texans defensive end J.J. Watt enters the final week with 14 1/2 sacks, trailing Oakland’s Khalil Mack (15) for the sack lead. Watt will get two against the Jaguars to finish on top.