Risk Management is Underrated

Managing risk is a critical part of any business, probably more important than many other topics taught in business.

In fact, risk management should be integrated as at least 25% of the discussion in any real world decision. In the real word, at least 25% of discussions involve some element of risk control/management.

Life as a Video Game: What is the Best Move?

I think using life as a video game is the best way to maximize optimal decision making.

Humans are predictably irrational in that we make decisions that are suboptimal but we’re predictable in our decisions over a large enough sample.

Behavior can be modelled and humans can use this intelligence and data to make the best decisions.

If you’re a store and you sell 20 ice cream flavors, how do you know which ones you should sell? Would you be better off or worse off if you sold sold only 10 flavors?

How should you email people to get the best response? Does it make sense to be rude? Should you send a proposal to someone first or wait for them to send you one? Is it best to appear new or experienced?

Humans consistently make lots of suboptimal decisions instead of like a chess player who thinks “What is my best move?”

Weird Dream: Santorum and Romney Hired Me

I had one of the strangest dreams. It is uncharacteristic of me to share light topics like this but there’s actually a good lesson.

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney both hired me as a consultant to win the Republican primaries where there was a conflict of interest.

The interesting thing is they both appeared at the same event at the same time, so even though I attempted to step out while they were there simultaneously, they kept wanting to be together.

Realistically though, I think both every candidate mismanaged their donations and everyone’s ads were a waste of money. If they honestly think they earned a return on their investment from advertising on TV, they are kidding themselves.

I gave out solid advice on how to actually acquire voters in a more predictable manner via performance-oriented and data-driven decision making.

I can almost guarantee none of the candidates know how many donations they received resulting from a specific advertisement. In 2012, there’s no excuse for not knowing your numbers. There should a clear target or a clear result from any action. Otherwise, politicians are gambling!