
  • Stocks To Watch


  • Order Reprints
  • Print Article




Societe Generale's Kit Jucke's describes the sentiment today:

Tensions in the Ukraine and Crimea have (temporarily) been eased. Russian troops have finished their 'military exercise' and financial market tension is melting away. And no, of course it's not 'all over'. The economic fallout, notably in Russia, will be significant and building political stability in the Ukraine remains a huge challenge. But financial markets are short-sighted animals and everything is calmer. Even the (very) overvalued Rouble is stronger today. And so, risk is a lot less 'off' than it was, EMFX is rallying across the broad, equity markets are up, Bund yields are higher, etc.

RBS strategist John Briggs thinks the damage done to Russia by the collapse of its equity market and the ruble played a role in Putin's tempering the belligerence:

The market side of me...notes that the Russian equity market fell 10% yesterday, and a 2012 study by Troika Dialog Research showed that the Russian state owns 30% of the equity market, with another 30% owned by oligarchs and domestic "businessmen." Add in a GDP rate of 1.2% (Q3), a core inflation rate of 5.6%, and a currency weakening that sparked a 150bp rate hike yesterday, escalation is not economically supportive for the state.

Could Mardi Gras help explain today's good cheer? The folks at Bespoke Investment explain:

...the S&P 500 has risen an average 2.04% (median = 2.37%) with positive returns 72.0% of the time...from the close on Fat Tuesday through Easter over the last 25 years.

Let the revelry begin?