Sharon: the possible successors

Simon Jeffery analyses what could happen in Israeli politics following Ariel Sharon's severe stroke
Nicknamed "the Bulldozer" for both his strongarm politics and his hefty physique, Ariel Sharon's almost certain withdrawal from office - whether he survives or not - would leave a vaccum at the heart of Israeli government.

The question of who will succeed the 77-year-old is complicated by the new political territory Israel finds itself in.

His party, Kadima, is a matter of weeks old. It came from a realignment in Israeli politics that began as Labour moved to the left with the election of Amir Peretz as its leader over the veteran Shimon Peres and was followed by Mr Sharon's departure from Likud - the party he co-founded - to his new centrist grouping.

Defections from Labour and Likud then left the old parties on the road to becoming left and right rumps, putting Kadima in pole position to win the March 28 general election sparked by Labour's withdrawal from Israel's coalition government.

What no one can know is whether Kadima - which looked likely to appeal to an election-winning number of Israelis who wanted both security and peace with the Palestinians, and believed Mr Sharon was the man to deliver it - will wane with its founder, or whether someone can take his place in the muscular centre.

The acting prime minister, Mr Sharon's deputy, Ehud Olmert, shares some political ground with the prime minister. He served as an MP for Likud but backed Mr Sharon over the Gaza withdrawal - the policy that split the prime minister from the Likud rightwing - and was one of the first people to join Kadima.

But although he demonstrated his administrative capabilities as the mayor of Jerusalem for a decade from 1993, his background as a career politician (he was first elected to parliament when he was 28) may fail to appeal to the same constituency that trusts Mr Sharon as a former soldier. He may lack the clout Mr Sharon needed to uproot the Gaza settlers.

Other potential successors include the justice minister, Tzipi Livni, the most senior woman in Mr Sharon's inner circle, and the defence minister, Shaul Mofaz.

Ms Livni is from a well-known ultranationalist family, but supports ceding land to the Palestinians to preserve a majority Jewish population. Mr Mofaz was in the Israeli army for 35 years and launched airstrikes against Palestinian militants when in government, but supported the Gaza withdrawal.

Both, however, lack solid political bases. Mr Mofaz initially tried to run for the leadership of Likud after Mr Sharon's exit before deciding he was better off with his old leader. Kadima does not itself have a solid political base for them to build on, so their task will be difficult. Mr Sharon had not even drawn up a list of candidates for the general election.

At the heart of it all is the Gaza withdrawal, and what remains of Likud, the party that both proposed and opposed it and is now led by Binyamin Netanyahu, may benefit if it simply pits its hawkishness against Labour and gains in the absence of a security-led centre under Mr Sharon.

A terrorist attack, or a strong showing by Hamas in the Palestinian elections on January 25, could also push enough Israeli voters from the centre to the right for the outcome to be a Likud-led coalition.

Without Mr Sharon, the political terrain that will be left by the March election is wide open. It will be the voters who decide.