A Russian Military Plane with 92 Aboard has Crashed in the Black Sea.

A Tupelov 154 similar to the jet that disappeared from radar 20 minutes into flight with at least 80 Russian military personnel present.
A Tupelov 154 similar to the jet that has crashed in the Black Sea with  92 people aboard. (Source)
Google earth image with some of the key landmarks adjacent to the site of the TU154 crash, the crash area is far closer to the coast than indicated because if placed in the correct spot it would be right on top of the airport.

December 25th, 2016.

Russian Military Jet Crashes in the Black Sea-at least 90 Presumed Dead.

A Russian Tupelov 154 military transport aircraft has crashed in the Black Sea minutes after takeoff from Sochi bound for Syria. Russian law enforcement sources are quoted as stating the plane:

“crashed in the sea seven minutes after departure five kilometers from the coast, at depths ranging from 50 to 100 meters, close to Anapa” a spokesman said.” (Source)

The TU154 was carrying 84 passengers and eight crew , several journalists and almost the entire  the Alexandrov Ensemble military choir were present on the military flight along with eight Russian soldiers.

Sputnik News are reporting that bodies have been found close to the Sochi coast.

Portent of Doom?
This incident may prove to have been a tragic accident or it could be far more serious. It is too early to speculate as to the cause of the crash but if reports that no distress signal was sent are true, and it is already established that the weather was favorable it is hard to imagine a mechanical fault or pilot failure resulting in the loss of the plane because under either scenario there is an overwhelming likelihood of a distress signal from the flight.
The dropping like a rock into the ocean for no apparent reason phenomenon has been seen in numerous air disaster in recent years from the Air France 447 disaster to the Air Asia 8501 calamity and many others.

State Department talking head John Kirby and many other current and former US officials have repeatedlywarned Russia of violent retribution for the defeat of the Western proxy forces in Syria on many occasions. If foul play has led to the demise of this aircraft those words may well come to haunt them and the world.

Updated- December 28th.

There were no survivors of the TU154 Black Sea crash. The flight voice and data recorders have been recovered and sources well connected with the Russia government claim that these and other data overwhelmingly point to pilot and/or mechanical error as the cause of the tragedy,

‘The flaps, damn it!’ Last words of doomed Tu-154 flight crew leaked to media — RT News

“According to a source close to investigation speaking to Interfax, initial readings from the black box appear to confirm the pilot error story. “The preliminary analysis of the flight recorder is complete,” said the unnamed source.

“It leads us to conclude that that the version of the catastrophe connected to mistakes made by the pilot of the aircraft, is the main version.”

Published record of the last session with the falling into the Black Sea in Sochi, the Tu-154

 Three main scenarios behind Tu-154 plane crash in Black Sea

The Motorola Assassination and the Future of Donbass.

Arsen Pavlov aka Motorola.
Motorola participates in the Novorussia victory parade in 2015.
Motorola in the Novorussian victory parade in Donetsk, 2015.

October 28th, 2016.

The Motorola Assassination.

On October 16th, legendary Donbass militia commander Motorola (born Arsen Pavlov) was killed by an explosion in Donetsk. A device was hidden in the elevator of the building in which Motorola lived with his wife and child, and detonated as Motorola returned home, killing both he and his bodyguard.

He had survived at least two previous assassination attempts, the most recent being an apparent botched bomb plot in August.

Motorola’s life before the Donbass war is low on detail. He was born in 1983 and raised in Rostov, western Russia, he was a Marine in the Russian military, fought in the second Chechnya war early 2000s before coming to prominence  during the Donbass war.

Motorola was a leader of the pro-Russian militia groups that have been fighting the Ukraine government forces since 2014 when a Western engineered colour revolution swept the elected Ukraine government from power and replaced them with ultra-nationalists and IMF flunkies.

Motorola was the commander of the Sparta battalion, who operate as a semi-special forces grouping within the DPR militia, he was involved in many of the most significant battles fought by the militia, playing a key role in the successful Second Battle for Donetsk Airport among many others.

Motorola engaged in numerous noteworthy acts of courage, exposing himself to close range tank fire, and generally leading from the very front of the front, giving his men confidence by the sheer force of his will and personality.

As a professionally trained soldier, Motorola was not only a fighter, he also operated training camps for less experienced fighters where they were taught infantry tactics.

Who Murdered Motorola?

The sad truth is that such is the state of Governance in the Donbass republics that there may never be any real investigation into this murder.

The attacker managed to sneak into the lift, plant the device, which could be done in ten seconds, and then  monitor the traffic into the lift in order to press the button at the correct moment.

My initial assumption that the Ukraine and their allies must have murdered Motorola did not survive the reading of a typically thoughtful analysis from the Saker.

The Murder of Motorola – questions which must be answered | The Vineyard of the Saker

Having had a rethink, this is the picture that has emerged of the potential suspects.


The operation is widely regarded as being beyond the level of professionalism of the Ukraine security services, and while it remains possible that they were behind this it seems at the less likely end of the hypotheses on offer.

Western Intelligence.

At face value it also seems highly unlikely that the operation would be directed by a Western agency as the death of Motorola does not change the overall situation to the benefit of the West to the degree worthy of the risk or resources the operation required.


The idea that Russia was involved can also be all but discounted. Motorola was an employee of Russia, if Russia thought he was dong a bad job, they would simply send him home. They had no motivation to waste time sneaking around planting bombs, he was their man, he obeyed orders, whatever they wanted to do to him, they would simply summon him.


The details of the attack mean it was either a very high-tech operation or it was done by someone very close to home. In recent years, almost all the major military and political and military leaders of the Donbass republics have been targeted for assassination, including the two putative heads of state in the respective republics, Alexander Zakharchenko of Donetsk and Igor Plotnitsky of Luhansk.

Infighting is part of the story and the Motorola killing fits into a broader pattern of events in the self-declared republics, with a partial breakdown of law and order and the absence of a real system of justice.

The best explanation for Motorola’s death, without having access to hard facts, would be some type of inside attack directed from within as part of some rivalry or betrayal.

The Impact.

The loss of Motorola is an immense psychological and symbolic blow to the beleaguered self-declared republics but it will not change the fundamentals of the situation in east Ukraine.

In the eastern Ukraine, Russia created a military and political force able to veto any attempt to include the Ukraine in NATO ans once that goal was achieved the Russian priority changed to mending political ties with Europe, hoping to end the EU sanctions.

Donbass battalion commaders Givi and Motoriala, a classic odd couple but also a very formidable combination as seen in the second battle of Donetsk airport and many other battles.Givi, born Mikhail Tolstykh has sworn to avenge the loss of Motorola many times over. It is likely however that Russian political imperatives will make this impossible.
Donbass battalion commanders Givi and Motoriala.
Donbass battalion commanders Givi and Motoriala.


The New Cold War.

In order to understand why this war is happening, we must look back at the post Cold war period.

At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union unilaterally dismantled itself, ended the European empire built on the back of the victory over the Nazi’s, abandoned communism and ended the reason for NATO’s existence, the Warsaw pact alliance grouping.

Rather than engage in a constructive reconciliation process, the West simply viewed Russia as a weakened enemy, to be exploited and attacked.

This was inexplicable because the official reasons for the conflict between the West and Russia, communism and the Soviet empire, were gone.

At the behest of Neo-liberal ideologues the assets of the Russian state were sold off at a tiny fraction of their value and later, foreign jihadists were inserted into Chechnya in order to start the Chechen war in the 1990s.

Shamil Basayev and Ibn Khattab, the CIA's men in Chechnya in the 1990s and 2000s.
Ibn Khattab (l) and Shamil Basayev(r), two of the CIA’s men in Chechnya in the 1990s and 2000s.

Key leaders of the Chechen insurgency were trained at the same training camps the CIA and the Pakistani ISI had earlier trained the Afghan mujaheddin.


Shamil Basayev was later responsible for operations that led to the deaths of hundreds of civilians, including the Moscow theatre siege and the Beslan massacre.

Wayne Madsen reported that the NSA “went dark” over the North Caucuses at the time of the Beslan attack. The implication is clear.

Basayev, along with Saudi jihadist Ibn Khattab,  led insurgent attacks on the provinces bordering Chechnya in 1998, attacking both Dagestan and Ingushetia, a ridiculous provocation designed to end the relatively peaceful informal independence of Chechnya.

In 1998, along with Shamil Basayev, Khattab created the Islamic International Peacekeeping Brigade (IIPB) group (also known as the Islamic Peacekeeping Army). In August–September 1999, they led the IIPB’s incursions into Dagestan, which resulted in the deaths of at least several hundred people and effectively started the Second Chechen War.” (Source)

Russia’s Gradual Encirclement by NATO.

On the external front, a dozen former Warsaw pact nations were included in an eastward expanding NATO, breaking numerous assurances made to Russia at the time of the German reintegration.

The broken deal is a secondary issue, the elephant in the room is why does NATO even exist post Warsaw pact?  And if the purpose of the expansion was not to encircle Russia then what was it?

Breaking Point.

The leadership of the West continued the Cold War unilaterally and for a very long time they met very little resistance, (the 2008 war against Georgia being a major exception) until they staged the colour revolution in Ukraine at the start of 2014.

The Coup.

The Ukraine had an elected government, all the politicians on all sides were corrupt. Protests against the government began after the President chose not to pursue closer economic ties with Europe. After several months the protests grew extremely violent and caused an equally violent response from the security forces.

At this point, Russia made a compromise deal for the President to stand aside and hold early elections but the West continued with the putsch and in  late February during the latter stages of the Sochi Winter Olympics the coup succeeded and the President of the Ukraine fled. This was the breaking point for Russia.


Russia could not risk losing the Sevastopol naval base to a hostile NATO takeover of the Ukraine, sOnce the Olympics were finished, Russia took dramatic action, a co-ordinated military political operation saw the Ukraine military evicted from the Crimea with very little violence and soon after that the people of Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and to join the Russian Federation.

Russia was able to achieve these things at very little cost and the reason for this was despite the fact that the Russian actions were driven by the need to retain Sevastopol, the people of Crimea were genuinely horrified by the coup government, largely regarded themselves as Russians all along and were relieved to leave a dysfunctional in the best of times Ukraine.

The operation was a huge success and Crimea is well in the process of being integrated into Russia, the operation succeeded because the goals of the Russia government broadly matched the goals of the people of Crimea.

It was one of the most stunning events in recent history, the West was powerless to act and the subject is so painful that it still reduces the minions of the West to quivering rage whenever it is raised.

The Donbass.

The core support for the deposed president Viktor Yanukovych was in the east of the Ukraine and the coup government decision to banish Russian as a language of the Ukraine, along with the ultra-nationalist elements in the government saw a rebellion begin in the east in the months following the coup.

By the middle of 2014, militia groups had formed in the eastern regions, the Ukraine armed forces tried to enter the east and evict these groups from their positions and a war broke out between them for control of east Ukraine.

At some point Russia decided to lend military and logistical support to the insurgents and by August 2014 the militia were bolstered by the presence of covertly inserted Russian soldiers, the Ukraine attempts to seize the eastern areas largely failed and following a terrible defeat for the Ukraine forces in the Battle of Ilovaisk the first Minsk agreement was signed in early September 2014.

The Donbass war in many ways resembles the West’s “dirty war” operations all over the world, from Syria to El Salvador and Guatemala, the core tactic is the same, an enemy is attacked using cut-outs in a proxy war.

Minsk 2.

Following Minsk the people of the Donbass are trapped in a netherworld with no prospect of escape. The Ukraine state regards them as foreigners, enemies, people to be shelled as punishment for their disloyalty.

The Donbass militias are also trapped, they cannot win the war, they cannot lose the war, instead they must simply fight to keep their pocket of territory and remain the Russian bargaining chip in the Ukraine.

The people were given false hope that Russia would either help them achieve independence or absorb them as it had Crimea. Neither option was ever part of the plan so the war, despite the tactical victories and the courage and skill of the fighters, was a trick played on the participants.

The Donbass militias and the people are a pawn that are there to be able to give Russia the ability to veto any attempt to include the Ukraine in NATO as well as act as an armed buffer on Russia’s western border.

That is why they can never be allowed to lose, that is why they are not supposed to win independence or to join Russia, and that is why while the Russia actions in Crimea can be seen to have improved the lives of the Crimeans the same cannot be said of the Donbass.

What Russia has done to these people, whilst being perfectly rational and probably in the Russian interest, was low and cynical in many ways. 

For the Ukraine state, the Donbass war has been an immense disaster and humiliation. Once the border posts between east Ukraine and Russia fell, the war was effectively over with no possibility of a victory as Russia now had the ability to provide sufficient assistance at any time in order to protect the Donbass pocket.

The Agreement.

The Minsk 2 agreement, reached in February 2015, is the concrete representation fo Russia’s decision to walk away from the Donbass war. The agreement is highly favorable to the Ukrainian side, including for example the condition that the Donbass militia groups go into exile upon disbandment.

This commentary from Mikhail Belyayev provides a good summary of the one sided nature of the deal that Russia forced upon the Donbass republics.

Minsk: A Betrayal and Tragedy for Donbass

The publicized text of the ceasefire agreement that was signed in Minsk is what this very real betrayal looks like. The betrayal of everything that the Novorossiya Militiamen fought and died for. The betrayal of Novorossiya itself, because, based on the text of this agreement, there is no place envisioned for Novorossiya, nor for the Militia and nor even for any “special status” for the People’s Republics.

All that this so-called ceasefire agreement provides for is a temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions. Even that is conditional on the complete elimination of the Militia and the release of all Ukrainian prisoners of war; moreover, the Militiamen are obliged not only to lay down arms, but also to leave the territory of Ukraine. In return, Ukraine promises amnesty to the parties to the conflict, a national dialogue, and certain measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in the Donbass. The LPR and the DPR are not even mentioned in the text of the agreement, and their representatives have signed it without any titles or ranks.

Independence and statehood? Novorossiya? A temporary special status in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions—here is all you have of independent Novorossiya. Here is all your freedom and sovereignty. You can write out these words a thousand times, print them on paper, and then shove them deep down your throat. In any event, death by strangulation is better than death through shame. Ukraine does not even intend to give autonomy to the People’s Republics. She did not even deign to mention these very Republics in the agreement. Temporary self-government in certain areas—that is the extent of Ukrainian generosity for the rebellious Donbass.

The Militiamen? According to this agreement they are now exiles and must leave the Donbass. Forever. Yes, the merciful Ukrainian side undertakes to pardon and not to criminally prosecute them. But only after they lay down arms and remove themselves from the territory of Ukraine. After all, according the agreement, all the unlawful military formations (meaning the Militia) must immediately be withdrawn beyond the boundaries of Ukraine.”

( Source)

The commentary finishes with an unanswered question “it remains a mystery as to how the representatives of Novorossiya could have signed this masterpiece of Ukrainian arrogance and conceit.”

The answer is obvious: Russia told them to sign it and they completely depend on Russia for their existence so had no choice but to sign.

In the 20 or so months since the Minsk 2 agreement was made, a low intensity wear has continued, the Ukraine have the upper hand but the achievements are slight. Meanwhile,  Russia is only providing the absolute bare minimum of military assistance to the militia groups.

It has been a very disappointing time for the people of the Donbass as it sinks in that Russia will never accept the eastern republics into Russia, nor will the Ukrainians implement the Minsk agreement.

Discontent in Donbass | crimesofempire

The Ukraine may well be continuing the war at this time simply in order to maintain the flow of US military assistance. Given the immense corruption of the Ukraine government and the futility of what they are doing, this may be the best explanation for their actions.

The ongoing fighting only deepens the psychological chasm between the people of the Donbass and the Ukraine state.

If the Ukraine wants to retain the Donbass in any meaningful sense the Ukraine must take steps to implement Minsk, and begin the slow process of the physical and political reintegration.


Over the long-term, the West is undoubtedly the chief party in the creation of the Ukraine disaster. Treating Russia as an enemy for a quarter of a century at the end of the Cold war was an act of madness, albeit one that is now paying off as Russia’s responses to Western aggression enable the NATO parasites to resuscitate their original raison d’etre- the threat of Russia!

NATO and all the other US instruments deserve execration but the cynicism of Russia’s action regarding the eastern Ukraine cannot be overlooked. It would do well for the Syrian Government and their allies to understand that Russia is not anyone’s benefactor, it acts in the Russian interest and in the Russian interest alone.

Russia is equally capable of walking away from Syria when it is no longer in their interest and Syria and their allies should always have contingency plans that consider this possibility.

For the people of the Donbass the world might as well have frozen over, they are trapped between the geopolitical aims of the West and Russia, their lives are of apparent little concern to either party and the future is bleak.

For as long as the Second Cold war persists they will be trapped, sandwiched between the competing geopolitical goals of Russia and the West.

[eng subs] Motorola guides a tour through “Sparta’s” museum [eng subs]

[eng subs] “Main fight of the Republic: 300 Steel riflemen” by Gennadiy Dubovov

18+ Donetsk Airport: Guided Tour with Motorola (English Subtitles) 18+ Donetsk Airport: Guided Tour with Motorola (English Subtitles)

“You will pay in blood for Motorola” – Givi

Assassination of Motorola: the last straw? Chilling message

Syrian Pilot Captured After Jet Downed in Aleppo Countryside.

Video still shows the moment the Syrian Su22 jet struck the ground near al Eis in southern Aleppo yesterday.
The Syrian Air force SU22 burns as it falls to the earth.
Flattened Su22 lies in the fields of Aleppo yesterday.
Flattened Su22 lies in the fields of Aleppo yesterday.
Tela al Eis marked on Google earth.
Tela al Eis marked on Google earth.

Updated, April 9th, 2016

al Nusra Front claim the SU22 was shot down with a ZPU anti-aircraft heavy machine gun.

Orient News (better known as Al Nusra television) have conducted an interview with one of the fighters involved with the downing of the Syrian jet this week. The masked al Nusra fighter claimed that the jet was struck by a 14.5 anti-aircraft gun.  The fighter is referring to a weapons system popularly known as the ZPU which consists of either two or four machine KPV heavy machine guns, often mounted on the back of vehicles. It is classed as anti-aircraft artillery. These weapons are very common in Syria.

Orient News interviews the man who shot Assad jet down in Aleppo southern countryside

There is no way to confirm these claims but they fit with the known facts and make sense. Hilariously Orient News tried to claim that the warplane was bombing civilians, yet the al Nusra fighters boast completely refutes this pathetic propaganda claim because if the claims are correct the proscribed terror group were operating heavy weapons in the area, the shootdown and the Nusra claim make it clear there were legitimate military targets in al Eis this week.

A typical ZPU anti-aircraft heavy machine gun with the KPV heavy machine guns mounted on the back of a vehicle. The4se come in two and four gun varieties, this is a two gun example.
A typical ZPU anti-aircraft heavy machine gun with the four KPV heavy machine guns mounted on the back of a vehicle.
KPV heavy machine guns mounted on the back of a vehicle in Syria.

April 6th, 2016.

Syrian Jet Downed in Aleppo-Pilot Captured.

A Syrian Air force Sukhoi Su22 jet has been shot down in southern Aleppo in the vicinity of the town of al Eis and the pilot has been captured by the jihadists of the al Nusra Front.   Tel al Eis has been the site of heavy fighting in recent days after insurgents launched a major offensive in southern Aleppo that saw them seize control of the small southern Aleppo village that government forces seized from the insurgents last November as part of their  Aleppo offensive.

The downing of the Su22 is the second Syrian Air Force jet lost in the past several weeks, in mid-March a MIG 21 was downed in Hama province, one pilot ejected but another died after unsuccessfully attempting to land the damaged jet. The cause of the SU22 downing is unclear but the MIG21 appeared to have been attacked with a portable SAM missile or MANPAD.

There is speculation that these jets may have been downed by new surface to air missiles provided to the insurgents by their sponsors however an examination of the history of the Syrian war shows that these latest incidents do not represent a significant departure from what has taken pace throughout the war.

List of aviation shootdowns and accidents during the Syrian Civil War – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Possible Implications.

According to the highly respected US journalist Gareth Porter the current partial ceasefire in Syria was due to a secret deal between the US and Russia. Under the purported deal Russia would restrict their bombing attacks to al Nusra and ISIS and in return the US woulkd convince their allies in Saudi Arabia and Turkey to completely stem the flow of weapons to the rebels.

Cutting Off Syrian Rebels’ Weapons – Consortiumnews

Events on the ground over recent weeks have supported the claims made by Gareth Porter;there has been a dramatic decrease for example in the use of anti tank guided missiles by the insurgents recently, with the dreaded TOW missiles –one of the major offensive weapons in the insurgents- all but disappearing from the battlefield in recent months.

Until the cause of the SU22 shoot down is ascertained specualtion is premature but if an entity or a state have been providing the likes of Jabhat al Nusra with surface to air missiles that could scuttle that deal and see a renewed escalation of the Russian role in the war.

In all likelihood iin this case the insurgents  got lucky on the back of a careless pilot but these are worrying signs that the nightmarish Syrian war may be nowhere near conclusion.

Syria War 2016 – Syrian Su-22 Fighter Jet Shot Down By Al-Nusra Front South Of Aleppo

SYRIA Militants shot down the Su-22 Chronicle of events

International Military Review – Syria, Apr. 6, 2016


The name of the captured pilot has not been released yet, here the man, said to be a 52 year old Colonel is shown after capture.

Russia Begins Withdrawal from Syria.

A small group of SU35s, Russia's most advanced war plane were deployed to Syria only weeks ago.
A small group of SU35s, Russia’s most advanced war plane were deployed to Syria only weeks ago.
Khmeimim airbase (also written Hmeymim‬) on Google Earth.
A South Frnt still shows the areas of control in Syria as of March 14th, 2016.
A South Frnt still shows the areas of control in Syria and south western Iraq as of March 14th, 2016.

March 16th, 2016.

Russia Announces Withdrawal of its Military from Syria.

On the eve of UN brokered peace talks, the Russian Government has made the shock announcement that they will  withdraw the “main part of their military grouping in the Syrian Arab Republic” beginning immediately.

The statement from the Kremlin does not say how many of the Russian Aircraft and troops will be withdrawn from Syria nor how long it would take but it has already started.

FIRST VIDEO: Russian warplanes leaving airbase in Syria

This is a very strange turn of events when it is considered that Russia was sending more warplanes to Syria less than a fortnight ago. South Front reported in early March that Russia had just sent several extra aircraft to the Syrian base and provided an updated inventory of the Russian Airforce in Syria.

South Front's updated inventory of Russian warplanes in Syria from early March, 2016. This indicates that the decision to begin to withdraw was taken in the past several weeks.

What Forces does Russia have in Syria?

The Russian Air force has stationed almost 100 aircraft in Syria, the estimates for the number of Russian troops in Syria range between 5 and 20,000. Whatever the number, Russian forces have not played a significant role in ground battles.

Officially, the Russian military have suffered three deaths during the Syrian operation, two on November 24th last year when Turkey shot down the Russian SU24 aircraft and another soldier died in the rescue effort and a soldier who died earlier this year as the result of a reported ISIS mortar attack.

There were also credible reports that a car bomb attack in Latakia claimed by Ahrar al Sham had killed at least ten Russian soldiers in late February.

Syrian rebels claim car bomb attack that killed Russian soldiers in Latakia – ARA News

The story disappeared but there were people on both sides telling neutral sources it happened.


The Russian decision comes as a shock as they are a vital element of the loyalist coalition that is midway through several major operations.

The motives for this decision will become clear over time but it seems that Russia has decided to put its will towards ending the war in Syria.

It is possible that Russia is attempting to send a message to their Syrian Government allies that they must be flexible in their negotiations with the opposition.

In recent days the Syrian Foreign Minister stated that the status of the Syrian President Bashar al Assad was not up for negotiation. It is possible that Russia would like to see Assad and coterie head into exile as a way to end the war.

Future of Bashar al-Assad remains ‘red line’ as Syria peace talks begin

Russia has tended to be at least one step ahead of Western observers in recent years so only when we see what happens next will Russia’s intent become recognisable.

There are three obvious possibilities.

  1. This is a ruse designed to bolster the Geneva talks and Russia’s international image.
  2. The US and Russia have made a secret deal regarding Syria’s future that will end the war.
  3. Russia wants Bashar al Assad to leave Syria and is trying to make Assad understand that he must yield to the demands of the opposition and leave power.

My understanding is that Russia is perfectly happy to see Assad leave as they understand that the demand for his departure is merely an excuse for the destruction of Syria via a continuation of the war, their priority has clearly been the survival of the Syrian state and the Syrian army, under whatever leadership. If the war could be ended by his departure, in an orderly way it is highly likely that Russia would request that Assad leave Syria.

This is a provisional map of the ceasefire areas. The orange areas are government controlled. The green areas are under juhadist control and the ceasefire areas are in blue.
This is a provisional map of the ceasefire areas. The orange areas are government controlled. The green areas are under juhadist control and the ceasefire areas are in blue. The cessation proved more significant than the small blue sections of the map would indicate.

Brief Summary of the Military Situation in Syria.

International Military Review – Syria–Iraq, Mar. 14, 2016

International Military Review – Syria, Mar. 16, 2016

A Cessation of Hostilities?

Around one hundred small insurgent groupings chose to participate in the partial ceasefire. The cessation did not apply and was never intended to apply towards either ISIS nor the local al Qaeda franchise the al Nusra front. Another large grouping Ahrar al Sham chose not to participate in the cessation due to the fact that the al Nusra front, their close ally, were excluded.

Ahrar al Sham says no cessation of hostilities while Nusra is being attacked : syriancivilwar

Therefore the only insurgent groups of any significance to participate was the Jaish al Islam, largely based in the outer Damascus area and the Southern Front coalition of insurgents fighting in the far less active southern parts of Syria.

On paper it seemed then that the cessation of hostilities would make little difference but the fighting has been sharply reduced in the fortnight since implementation and Russia has been helping to negotiate a series of local amnesties and ceasefires, building on a tactic the Syrian Government has been using for several years and that has seen insurgents allowed to leave many areas including Homs city.

Since the cessation began anti Government demonstrations have resumed in the rebel held areas but they are neither large nor enthusiastic. On the weekend an attempt to hold a pro-democracy rally in Idlib backfired badly when the “democratic’ protesters were attacked by Islamists advocating the implementation of Sharia law. The overwhelming desire of the majority of the people appears to be for the war to end and be able to resume their lives.

The sooner it is over the better, but the problem of al Nusra, ISIS and their sponsors is not suddenly going away, even if the Americans decide to call it a day, there are strong indications that neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia would follow the advice or direction of the US.

Looking from the Latakia mountains down into al Nusra held Idlib province. The town of Jisr ash Shigour is the white patch in the upper left, at a distance of around 7 kilometres.
Syrian Amry rockets impact on a Latakia mountain viewed from a surveillance drone.

Major Current Government Operations.

The Latakia offensive is almost complete and the assault is poised to move onto Idlib province in the coming days and weeks.

Drone footage of Syrian Army MRLs against militants in Kabbani – Latakia

Syria‬ ‪‎Latakia‬ : ‎SAA‬ ‪‎NDF‬ military operations in Vicinity of ‪‎Kabani‬

A large operation is also underway against ISIS in the area around Palmyra in central Syria.

Syrian Army prepares to storm Palmyra | March 10th 2016

Rain of BM-30 Smerch, TOS-1A and BM-27 by SAA on ISIS in Palmyra

Fighting continues in the Hama and Homs countryside and in southern Aleppo.

Battles for Syria | March 12th 2016

Battles for Syria | March 13th 2016 | North Hama Plain

The Der az Zour pocket showing the SAA positions.
The Der ez Zour pocket showing the SAA positions.

Besieged Der ez Zour and Conclusion.

Thousands of Syrian troops and hundreds of thousands of civilians remain encircled by ISIS in the eastern city of Der az Zour and although ISIS are on the path to total collapse in both Syria and Iraq, without Russian air support it is hard to see the Syrian Army liberating Palmyra and defeating ISIS and al Nusra in Syria.

The attempt to end the war is admirable but this will not solve the problem of al Nusra and ISIS each of which retains significant territories within Syria.

It must be assumed that Russian air strikes will continue in Syria for many months at the very least with a scaled down presence conducting a smaller campaign.  Anything less would be a betrayal of all they have achieved up to this point.

International Millitary Review & Analysis – Withdrawal of Russian Military from Syria

First group of aircraft has left ‪‎Hmeymim‬ airbase for permanent location airfields in Russia

Ankara Bombing: the False Flag that Failed.

Euronews image of bus damaged in the Ankara blast.
Euronews image of bus damaged in the Ankara blast.
Rescuers and bystanders in the immediate aftermath of the Ankara attack.
Rescuers and bystanders in the immediate aftermath of the Ankara attack.

February 20th, 2016.



the Ankara False Flag Flopped.






The US treats the claims of Turkey with contempt.




Daily Press Briefing – February 18, 2016



Daily Press Briefing – February 19, 2016

So it is over, they have failed again.


Turkey-US dispute over Syrian Kurdish PYD widens

Turkish Groups Claim of Responsibility Completely Contradicts Government Narrative.


TAK claims responsibility for Ankara bombing


Prosecutor’s office denies reports that mortar attack caused İstanbul airport blast





Key Contradictions.









Syrian Kurds reject involvement in Ankara blast




Legitimate Concerns?




Conspiracy Theories.





Raining Shells: Turkish army fires on Kurdish forces in Syria

Car bombs.










Massive Breakthroughs in Syria!

Loyalist fighter in Aleppo during a week of triumph.
Loyalist fighter in Aleppo during a week of triumph.
Citizens of Zahra in Aleppo province celebrate the breaking of the 40 month siege after the Syrian Army and Hezbollah entered the town this week.
This map gives some idea of the importance of the recent Syiran breakthroughs in Aleppo. The reddish coloured strip in the middle has cut the insurgents in Aleppo into two pockets north and south of the Syrian area of control.
This map gives some idea of the importance of the recent Syrian breakthroughs in Aleppo. The reddish colored strip in the middle has cut the insurgents in Aleppo into two pockets north and south of the Syrian area of control. Area to the left of the map is under the control of the Kurdish YPG and therefore unavailable to the Sunni insurgents.
This map shows the overall situation in Aleppo provicne withthe insyrgent area of control in Eastern Aleppo city almost completely surrounded and cut off. If this is achieved the war may be almost over in Northern Syria. Without some kind of political settlement insurgency will continue indefinitely as in Iraq.
This map shows the overall situation in Aleppo province with the insurgent area of control in Eastern Aleppo city almost completely surrounded and cut off. If this is achieved the war may be almost over in Northern Syria. Without some kind of political settlement insurgency will continue indefinitely as in Iraq.

February 8th, 2016.

Massive Breakthroughs!

Loyalist Victories Prove Russian Presence Has Transformed the Syrian War.

Aleppo victories mean that Insurgents Northern supply line has been severed.

Aleppo City pocket almost encircled.

After four months of Russian Airstrikes the situation in Syria has been transformed and in the past several weeks the Loyalist forces have won important victories in the North and South of Syria with the capture of the key crossroads town Sheikh Miskeen in the South as well as the key towns Salma and Rabia in the northern Latakia province.

Those important victories have this week been eclipsed by the major achievements in Aleppo where the sieges of the towns Zahra and Nubil were lifted after forty months and the loyalist forces have now cut off the insurgents in Northern Aleppo from their supply lines via the Aleppo countryside and the Turkish border. Both sides are taking heavy casualties but the Syrian Army and allies are achieving their objectives, the insurgents are dying and at the same time losing territories they fought hard for years to capture and hold.

Residents Nubl and Az-Zahra meet liberators

International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 8, 2016

International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 4, 2016

International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 5,

SAA/Hezbollah Operations in North Aleppo: Ratyan

Syrian Army And Hezbollah In Heavy Clashes During Assault On Northern Aleppo

The R and U Videos channel is an excellent compiler of footage of the war, almost the raw footage equivalent of the always excellent South Front analysis.

Battles for Syria | February 5th 2016 | Aleppo province

Battles for Syria | February 6th 2016 | North Aleppo Front | Mayer

Battles for Syria | February 7th 2016

Battles for Syria | February 7th 2016 | Aleppo province

Syria: Syrian Army makes push to fully encircle Aleppo

CIvilsain wounded in Russian/Syrian strike is rescued from destroyed byilding in Hama province, January 2016.
Child wounded by Syrian/Russian strike is tended to in an Idlib field hospital. January 2016.

The Suffering is Immense.

There should be no mistake about the fact there is an immense amount of suffering currently being visited upon the beleaguered people of Syria, nor that the Russian/Syrian air campaign is playing a significant role in this suffering and death.

 While many of the areas of fighting in Syria are devoid of civilians, having been emptied during previous battles, many people live in rebel held areas of Idlib, Aleppo and several other provinces and civilians in these areas have died in large numbers at the hands of Russian and Syrian airstrikes targeting militant positions.

The insurgent and Western media propaganda line that Russian Airstrikes are targeting civilians is not supported by facts or logic, but the idea that the Russian Air-force are launching thousands of airstrikes without killing civilians is equally ludicrous and the Russian media do themselves no credit the way they have completely ignored the civilian deaths the air campaign has caused.

Despite this the Syrian-Russian-Iranian operation is worthy of support because a victory for the insurgents in Syria would not see an end to the fighting but would lead to fracture and descent into chaos as competing insurgent warlords vied for power.

Previous victories in Afghanistan and more recently in Libya have seen this descent into chaos and failed statehood status. If the likes of Jaish al Islam, Ahrar al Sham, al Nusra and ISIL/Daesh were vying for power the results would be almost identical to the process that has seen the once thriving Libyan state become a failed and broken state and a base for the extremists who threaten to attack the West and bring instability to wherever they operate.

The only party with any chance of stabilising the situation is the Syrian state, deeply flawed as it is. All other paths lead to long term mayhem and broadening instability.

Syrian displaced by the Aleppo fighting gather near the Kilis border crossing to Turkey. They will be used, the only question is how?

Turkey and Saudi Arabia threaten invasion of Syria.

Saudi Troops Headed to Syria? Saudi-Turkey Invasion in Support of ISIS? | Global Research

Turkish, Saudi Ground Operation in Syria Spells Major Trouble for NATO

Saudi Arabia and the mini me Gulf States the UAE and Qatar have responded to this situation by suggesting that they will send troops into Syria to “battle Daesh.”A pretext that should no longer fools anyone.

The Gulf coalition are clearly already suffering a severe shortage of quality ground forces, hence their need to deploy Blackwater/Academi/Xe mercenaries in large numbers on the ground in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is also suffering regular cross border raids from their Yemeni enemies.

As far as Turkey goes they are not going to be able to do anything significant in Syria without the assent of the US and there is little chance of that happening given that the key Turkish target in Syria is the key US ally, the YPG Kurds. It is a non-starter even by Erdogan’s loose standards.

Erdogan calls on US to choose between Turkey or Syrian Kurds | THE DAILY STAR

The US has no interest in choosing between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, but a leadership change in Turkey may allow the US to solve the dilemma in another manner.

Turkey still supports the regime change operation in Syria but they are not about to attack the Syrian Army inside Syria and find themselves under bombardment from the Russian Air force.

One option they may seek to take would be to corral the tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the Aleppo fighting within Syria and send a “protection force” to institute the long mooted (and even announced in July 2015) safe zone in Northern Syria although whatever happens the presence in Syria of the Russian S400 anti aircraft and missile systems mean the proposed no fly zone is an impossibility short of open war with Russia and the highly factionalised US administration does not seem to support this project therefore it will not happen.

The US refused to support the safe zone prior to the Russian military involvement in Syria, back in July, when the risks and costs were far lower so it seems inconceivable that it would be supported at this time . At a moment of high desperation for the plotters the refugees will presumably be again used to try and rescue the situation.

Syria: Makeshift camp set up for refugees stranded at Turkish border

Messages of Despair and Pleas for help from Insurgents.

“This is my last video from the revolution in the north. Iran and Russia attacked us and the world made war on us destroying the green and the dry.( Apparent Google translate error) The Americans betrayed us and got us into this shameful situation. We thank our allies Turkey and Saudi and Qatar. We needed anti-aircraft weapons but we didn’t get them. So we have to pull out.”

Syria, Northern Aleppo, Militant in Rityan message to People before Withdrawing This Morning.

This video is quite horrific. It consists of a plea for unity among insurgent factions. The wounded fighter is named Abu Homs. It is hard to watch but serves as a reminder that real people are dying unnecessarily in this war. The Syrian opposition contains many Syrian who were duped, manipulated and sold a suite of false promises and lies from their sponsors.

This is what he looked like before he was wounded.

"Abu Homs" before and after he was wounded.
“Abu Homs” before and after he was wounded.

Wounded Insurgent’s Hospital Message

Ending the Carnage.

Even if the Syrian Arab Army and their allies are able to win every battle and destroy the insurgent formations, a political solution will still be required and the insurgents will have to be given some type of autonomy and increased participation in Syrian politics otherwise the insurhency will continue indefinitely long after the war ends, as has happened in Iraq.

The initial round of Syria peace talks were an empty farce with the opposition making the ridiculous demand that the Syrian Government and their allies stop fighting prior to the dialogue. It can only be hoped that the reality of their situation dawns upon them soon and a more realistic and conciliatory outlook will replace the delusional grandstanding that still dominate the opposition public narrative.

Happy New Year!!

New Day Rising? Sunrise in Canberra.

January 1st, 2016.

Happy New Year!

A Time of Hope and Renewal?







The Number 2016.



It has 36 factors.

2016 is

1 times 2016.

2 times 1008.

3 times 672.

4 times 504.

6 times 336.

7 times 288.

8 times 252.

9 times 224.

12 times 168.

14 times 144.

16 times 126.

18 times 112.

21 times 96.

24 times 84.

28 times 72.

32 times 63.

36 times 56.

42 times 48.


The Divine Proportion: Golden (Phi)nomena of Nature

Consensus reality.

Happy New Year.

Neutrality Truth 1

File:217465423-The-Cabal.pdf – WikiSpooks

Blacklist : the cabal speech by Reddington

Husker Du – New Day Rising