ExxonMobil: Positioning for a Lower-Carbon Energy Future?



But enough of that. What does Exxon actually say?

Letter from the Chairman




Summary at-a-glance


Considering 2°C scenarios


Potential proved reserves and resources impacts considering 2°C scenarios



Errm, any questions?

The pointt what



Exxon Funds Push for a Carbon Tax That Ends Climate Liability Suits - climateliabilitynews


Phil Hays said...

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" -- Upton Sinclair

Much like the IEA and solar, the value of this report will come only after repeatedly bad forecasts. I suspect that there will be both over optimism and over pessimism sections.

For example: "Liquids – Full EV demand sensitivity" chart shows only a tiny fraction of commercial transportation being electric.

If future battery cost projections are close to accurate, local delivery trucks might be mostly electric by 2040. That might be half of the commercial fuel usage. This might mean that total oil usage could be lower in 2040 than in 2000.


We can’t connect to the server at www.positioning%20for%20a%20lower-carbon%20energy%20future.com.



I didn't try other links.

William Connolley said...

I've fixed the link; thanks for pointing it out. Forecasting is, of course, well known to be difficult, especially of the future.

crandles said...

didn't seem hard to find.

I guess repeating your " 'Electricity from solar and wind increases about 400 percent' tel me another" doesn't count as being hard enough.

crandles said...

They separate commercial transportation from 'light duty' with commercial continuing to increase the demand for oil but light duty seeing some electrification. Is that in denial of Tesla Semi 500 mile range on a single charge or is Tesla semi specs still considered vapourware that is impossible to achieve?

Having admitted some electrification of light duty, they still show that sector barely falling so increased GDP almost replaces the fall from electrification. Once electric is demonstrated to be cheaper, I imagine there would be almost complete conversion by a decade later. GDP growth still almost keeping up by 2040 ?????

William Connolley said...

With (essentially? exactly?) no non-light-commercial electric right now I think it is difficult to forecast it's future.

However, I think this is why this report - and the demand for it - is so pointless. Different people have different ideas. Some people may think commercial electric will come much earlier than Exxon, and be prepared to bet serious development money on it; and if they are right, they will do well. Or maybe Exxon are right that it won't come so early. But you can't *force* people to be right.

As an aside, and a spur-of-the-moment thought, what about the combination of electric and self-driving? Maybe that makes range less important; the self-driver doesn't mind that it is sitting around waiting for recharge. Maybe it affects scale: you don't need a big truck to make best use of your expensive humans. And so on.

crandles said...

Self driving probably changes the economics more than Electric vs ff. How many self driving non electric vehicles are being developed? I believe the answer may be none but maybe that doesn't matter.

Long recharge time but less than the driver rest time might mean self driving commercial truck co worries more about recharge time than with human driver. Short range and frequent recharge stops doesn't sound ideal at present as in travelling more distance out of way to find recharge stations but eventually recharge stations are everywhere needed and that might be preferable but I would expect batteries prices to fall so you don't need to compromise in that way.

> difficult to forecast
As in bi modal probability distribution - high chance of high percentage of electric vehicles but also a hump with much less change in the electric %?

Seems like they are assuming that the little change outcome is the only possible outcome to me. If their job depends on it, what should we expect? Does this mean the protesters shouldn't have demanded it or that the value comes as several successive versions are repeatedly shown to be wrong? Or, is it counterproductive, in that it develops skills in continued ignorance forecasting and how to obfuscate in such reports?

Everett F Sargent said...

BGR, BP, EIA, ExxonMobil, IEA, MIT, Shell and WEC are all the mostly annual "Outlook to 2XXX' that I am aware of (I think I now have over one hundred of these types of 'so called' annual reports), none of those suggests that we will meet a 1.5C or 2.0C target (well maybe the latest IEA does, but I'm missing their 2016 and 2017 full reports).

BGR is currently my favorite as they SWAG resources in addition to the usual proven/unproven reserves (they appear to be somewhat tardy on a 2017 report, if 2017 is even in the works).

Then you have carbon budget estimates such as EDGAR v4.3.2, Global Carbon Budget and PBL. Of which the latest Global Carbon Budget 2017 suggests an ~2% increase for last year (2017) ...

Then you have this from Pielke the Junior ...
And this from BGR ...
And this from the Paris Agreement ...

Meanwhile, back at the aCO2 ranch, we have ...

So, I guess I'll always be an adaptation skeptic AND a mitigation skeptic. :(

Phil Hays said...

> With (essentially? exactly?) no non-light-commercial electric right now


Tom said...

I really don't understand why this is so difficult to understand.

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration publishes forecasts. So does the International Energy Agency. So does BP. So does Exxon.

They all agree. All. The world is going to use more fossil fuels going forward as the developing world develops.

That is in spite of a very real desire globally to reduce consumption. Which eventually will happen--starting in about 2075.

You won't change Exxon Mobil until you change its customers.

Eli Rabett said...

Eli is old. Has he mentioned that recently?

In any case Eli is so old that he remembers when Exxon was seriously looking to isotope separation by various non centrifuge methods as a way out of the Carter years. The Bunny even knows or knew a number of folks who went over to the better paid side some of whom stuck. Sadly they found Ronald Reagan.