Decision Workshops

Libya - the end game

Two months after our investigation at Cranfield University, the situation in Libya had radically changed.  As forecast at the first workshop, the stalemate had been broken and Gaddafi was on the run.  It was time for a further investigation.   In a follow- on workshop Decision Workshops worked with DSTL (the Defence Science and Technology Laboratories) to look at how the war would end.  


At the time of the Workshop (6th October) Gaddafi was essentially finished (he was not negotiating with anyone) therefore was not directly played in the workshop.  

The participants

We looked at the struggle between the Western Powers (including the UN), the National Transition Council , and two groups of fighters in Tripoli, the Muslim Brotherhood (headed by Abdul Hakim Belhadj), and the more radical Salafist groups (such as the Misratah brigades).

The politics (on 6 Oct 2011)

The major political difficulites revolved around the NTC's attempt to get the armed militias to disband:  the leaders of  those militias were demanding the reform of the NTC, and in the incorporation of Sharia law in the Libyan constitution before they did so.  See our view of the politics of the time, experssed in terms of decision cards that could or could not be played.

The moves

See what happened in the Workshop, and how the team was able to make political progress.


But with Gaddafi’s demise, would there be an orderly transfer to democratic rule or would the victors fight amongst themselves? What kind of state would eventually emerge from the Libyan revolution?

ThinnerCheckPoint The politics The moves