Jack Cook writes:

UBS, Nomura Fined $450 Million For Bond Cartel Chatroom Collusion

Thursday, May 20, 2021 - 03:16 PM

As if having clueless prime brokers who just cost them hundreds of millions in losses wasn't enough, on Thursday morning Nomura and UBS, both of which were hammered by the Archegos implosion, were hit with another heft fine totaling 371 million euros ($452 million) by the European Union for colluding on euro government bond trading during the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

UBS was fined €172 million and Nomura will have to pay €129.6 million for participating in a traders’ cartel that swapped commercially sensitive information from 2007 to 2011 when eurozone bond yields soared; UniCredit was fined 69 million euros, according to Bloomberg.

Today's fines are the culmination of the EU spending the past decade probing how bank traders swapped information in chatrooms. At the same time it approved billions of euros in government support to keep many European lenders alive during the financial crisis.

The EU said traders on European government bond desks were in regular contact, mainly on Bloomberg terminal chatrooms, where they “informed and updated each other on their prices and volumes offered in the run-up” to eurozone government bond auctions “and the prices shown to their customers or to the market in general.”

Citigroup, RBS and JPMorgan were among five banks that agreed in 2019 to pay EU fines of over 1 billion euros for colluding on foreign-exchange trading strategies. Bank of America, Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month over chatrooms where traders swapped information on trading of U.S. supra-sovereign, sovereign and agency bonds. The EU is still investigating some banks for a related cartel.

It was “unacceptable, that in the middle of the financial crisis, when many financial institutions had to be rescued by public funding these investment banks colluded in this market at the expense of EU member states,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s antitrust chief, said in an emailed statement according to Bloomberg. Her criticism appears to have been aimed at two banks that weren’t fined. A Royal Bank of Scotland Group unit escaped a fine because it was the first to tell regulators. It received a U.K. bailout in 2008. Portigon, the successor bank to bailed-out and failed German lender WestLB, avoided a levy because it had no revenue last year.

Bank of America Corp. and Natixis SA participated in the cartel but weren’t fined because they had quit the cartel five years before the EU started its probe. While the euro-bond fines are far lower than previous EU cartels, they do allow the banks’ customers sue for damages if they can prove higher costs were passed on to them.

The news was not what UBS shareholders wanted to hear just weeks after the bank sheepishly revealed that it too had been hammered by Archegos, if not quite as badly as its cross-town rival; the bank said the fine could hurt second-quarter results by as much as $100 million. It’s considering an appeal and has “taken appropriate action years ago to mitigate and improve processes,” it said in a statement.

For its part, Nomura said the fine “relates to historic behavior” by two former employees “for an approximate 10-month period in 2011.” The bank “will consider all options, including an appeal” and “has introduced increased measures to ensure that we conduct our business with the highest levels of integrity,” it said in an emailed statement

Other banks were also unhappy: UniCredit “vigorously contests” the fine and will appeal to the EU courts, it said in a statement. The bank “maintains that the findings do not demonstrate any wrongdoing.”

Because since when do banks view criminal rigging of markets as a "wrongdoing."

Bud Conrad  writes

Thanks for the report.

The on-going fines sound big, but they keep coming. I don't have the numbers, but I guess that the profits are much larger than the fines. More importantly nobody goes to jail. The result is that the new crop comes along to repeat the scams and rigging. The banks pay huge bonuses. Nothing changes. The banks just consider modest fines as a cost of doing business, and the regulators often don't prosecute even what problems are revealed. 

The US SEC never investigated Madoff, even when they were given the scam on a silver platter. My interpretation after Clayton is that the SEC doesn't want to mess up markets by doing their job. They let CEO Musk openly lie and only slap him on the wrist, because they said they wouldn't want to hurt the shareholders. It was Madoff running out of money and turning himself in, to then die in jail. In the electronic world we have better tracking, but I think they will have better ways to cover up their processes.  Maybe Europe is better, but I doubt.



In the 1980s Steam Train Maury Graham, king of the hobos, told me at the wheel of his Cadillac after the Brit hobo convention on the way to an Ohio nursing home to tell tales of the rails, 'If I had to do it again, I'd walk rather than ride the rails of America for a greater appreciation of our country.'  

I beat him to the punch, and walked a few miles on many rails throughout the USA to sample what is there. Once I lost my shoes from a jiggling flatcar and walked into a hobo jungle where they raised the bottle to ‘The Shoeless Tramp’. It would have been shameful to refuse a swig and potential tuberculous. Walking the rails brought true meaning to the hobo posey over and over, ‘Hark, hark, the dogs do bark, the tramps have come to town!’  

I am convinced the first rail makers in the span between narrow and standard gauge rails laid the ties just shy of a step and long of a stride to upset the pedestrian. Soon, you retreat to an access road. Every RR line has an access road along the original 19th or 20th century rights-of-way that we walk in lieu of the track. I’ve hiked hundreds of rails, a few steps at a time, and it’s fascinating. Bed is where the head is each night. Sometimes the access road gets overgrown in the South, or is absent in the East where public roads gain the track for repair. I like the idea that, compared to walking public roads, railroads keep you away from the traffic, fumes, noise, people, and police.   

There is a small town, sometimes ghostly, every 100 miles-or-so throughout the USA rail system. These stand from the steam train days when the tracks were laid to host water tanks to feed the hungry engines, and a newspaper of hobo symbols. 

a Slabber showed me yesterday a lightweight, detachable extension he built with a caster to rest on the rail adjacent to the one his bike tires are on. He'll ride his rail bike on the Union Pacific line from Slab City eight miles to Calpat, CA for supplies, as the trains pass only every other hour. His is simpler and lighter than the online kits.     

The rails-to-trails movement started in the mid-1060s as a quiet Midwest phenomenon that quickly spread to the major metropolitan areas. The idea was to convert the unused rail corridors, which were closing rapidly across America, into public trails. As tracks were pulled, people instinctively began walking along the old corridors, socializing, enjoying nature, and marveling at the bridges and tunnels. Walkers were joined by joggers, and rails to trails has become worldwide. There should be a transcontinental path that connects to other countries with similar, so one may journey around the world and open a new class of tourist trade.    

However, I’ll wear my boots instead of a bike. Sometimes you hop a boxcar and find the companionship of a hobo dog. 



Closing Time

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Sushil Kedia writes:

Closing TIme of key contracts, around the world has the same character feeding the vig. Irrespective of whether this character speaks Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Malaysian, Hindi, Pashto, Hebrew, German, English or American English. 

The compulsion to not carry a losing trade overnight, to square off excess positions that cannot be funded overnight etc. etc. provide a good enough number of hands who are willing to be forced out and required to be forced out at close. 

If I can spot, from my back-benches in global finance a ready made bunch of pigs to be slaughtered everyday, I am wondering why wont the 200 Billion Dollar Liquidity pumps whether run by a rocket scientist or by anyone would not be already squeezing them hour by hour as the sun moves from the East to the West? 

Wondering what is a good way to structure a study that tries to isolate statistical evidence for reversing extremas N minutes before the close of related exchanges. 

Say the Closing TIme of top 5 liquidity producing exchangs of crude future world over are noted down and a statistical study of N minutes before closing time and after closing time of each of these 5 exchangs throws up a pattern? 

And then if equity index futures that produce the top 10 volumes even if each equity index contrat is a distinct entity, is there a closing time ebb and flow that is being created by the Scientists' algorithms?  

Victor Niederhoffer writes

This is a very interesting and  an suggestive post. let's have some   feedback on ow to approach this query 

Jared Albert  writes

I think closing time/price as the sole predictor is too broad and noise will swamp any effect. 

So, to me,  the first step is classify the various conditions that exist before the close. For example, days up vs down, up/down on day, distance from x day max/min etc.

There are so many predictor variables that I don't think this is a frequentist kind of problem lending itself to logistic regression and lots of crosstabs for example.

So step one is a machine learning classification model to separate the states using the closing time movement as the target for training. 

IF it turns out that there are classifiable 'set-ups', then one could run analysis within the most promising classifications.



Dimple Solar

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

This may spark controversy among solar connoisseurs, however it is what works after living 25 years off-grid out here in Nowhere, Sonora.  

I’ve forgotten everything I knew working for the first solar company in Colorado, Rocky Mountain Solar & Wind, because the desert is a different beast where the sun shines every day. You don’t need to get fancy, simple is better, and you can’t spend much money.  

There are two basic solar setups I’ve used that work. The first is car camping where you have one battery in your vehicle and one under the front seat with a double-strand wire connecting in parallel (+ to + and – to -). Run your accessories to the one under the seat. Put an inline toggle between the batteries and switch it off when the car isn’t running. As you drive, the spare battery charges from the one under the hood. You’re a happy camper never worrying about being stranded from a battery running low.  

When you graduate from car camping to a trailer, and think you require a more sophisticated system, it’s nearly as simple.  Buy 3 marine batteries from Walmart for $100 each, and two 100-watt solar panels from Glue the panels flat on your roof so they won’t be seen and stolen.  

For either option above, dress your setup like this:  Digital voltmeters cost $10 at and every battery should have one. Simple Inverters are $20 at Walmart. Always put a $3 inline fuse on the positive line close to the battery. 

That’s all. No charge controller, diodes or all those other big words. This is a barefoot solar system for the desert. 

Now I’m going for a walk with a $15 mini-panel on the brim of my straw hat to charge a cell phone, and an icecap under it of crushed ice in a double-baggie with a pinhole that melts in a trickle faster and faster as it gets hotter and hotter.  



 I helped mom wash dishes out of respect. The lessons of washing dirty dishes are:  
  • Learn to be detail oriented. 
  • Clean inside to out. 
  • Operate under time-temperature pressure with diminishing resources. 
  • Work on your feet. 
  • Stand hot water. 
  • It's not done until it's done right. 
  • It's an anecdote to confusion. 
  • It's not my standard.  

By the time I could shave my conclusion was there will always be dirty dishes, so let the bacteria dance.  

That is the point. Millions of bacteria sit on my plate overnight to become part of the next meal, and to increase immunity. It’s the old soldier line, ‘An enemy makes me stronger.’ Without them, we shrivel and die.  

AMR (antimicrobial resistant bacteria) is called a global burden. It occurs when bacteria multiply to change in response to antibiotics. But if your immune system is strong you won’t get sick and don’t need to worry about it. AMR to me is largely propaganda of the pharmaceutical industry. The theme of drug-resistant microbes is the greatest con since the original sin.  

Immunity is a natural process that has existed long before modern antibiotics. Traces of antibiotic-resistant bacteria have even been found in ancient Egyptian tombs. In fact, we are seeing those same bacteria today because they reproduce by binary fission. In this process the bacterium, which is a single cell, divides into two identical copies of themselves. It’s more fascinating to watch under a electron microscope than pornography. 

People take for granted that we need to take showers, clean our house, make the beds, launder clothes, and wash dishes. The next day you start over again. I'd rather read a book. The medical one I wrote refutes the germ theory of disease and puts the blame squarely on a compromised host. These are us due to poor diet, dirty air, treated water, lack of exercise, stress, and overprescribed drugs 

The ultimate medical class I took was microbiology because we created our own world in petri dishes. These are a shallow dish with a thin medium to grow microorganisms. You pick your tribe and inoculate the medium. The response in the petri is anything from a boom town to a ghost town. The advantage is you see the growth hour-by-hour and ceiling results within 24-48 hours. To view this is godlike, and of great benefit in medical diagnosis. You may also sprinkle on antibiotics or other microorganisms to control evolution. Hence, likely, our Covid. 

The dish is also deeply philosophical. If you add shame to a petri dish, it needs three ingredients to grow exponentially: secrecy, silence, and judgement. If you put the same amount of shame in the petri dish and douse it with empathy, it can’t survive.  

Key to this in my life is making yogurt in an unheated Michigan garage called Nirvana. The basic steps were:  

  • Heat milk over a candle. 
  • Cool it to about 110F. 
  • Add yogurt starter from the last batch.  
  • Pour the milk into a jar and incubate on top the indoor doghouse. 
  • Place the jar on my desk to cool.  

The secret ingredient is the dab of old yogurt culture you put in the milk. This converts the milt into yogurt including the probiotics that are reproducing all the while by binary fission. Store-bought yogurt was expensive and filled with corn syrup, preservatives, and artificials, minus probiotics. Probiotics are live beneficial bacteria in the gut that aid digestion and enhance the immune system. My yogurt was so cultured it should have been allowed in the opera.  

I had a perpetual motion machine of yogurt for one year. A little of the old batch to make a big new, just add milk. At the end of one year, I was eating the same daughter bacterial cells as on day one, and exact replicas of those first created on earth. It was a muscular dairy industry when the price of milk was 35-cents per gallon.  

All the while, I ate off one plate. Shake, wipe don’t wash, but be sure to reuse it within 24-hours. Just let the bacteria multiply. They are the fastest reproducing organisms in the world, doubling approximately every ten minutes. That is faster than the geometric progression of grains of wheat doubling on the squares of the king’s chessboard. Think of it as your personal pan petri to greater immunity. 

The seduction of the exponential curve begins with one unclean plate. The peoples I have observed in 100+ countries who rarely get sick in filthy circumstances without medication are hobos, mechanics who don’t wash their hands, long-distance hikers, Slabbers, and third-world countries. The latter get ill mainly for statistical data to bilk financial assistance from first-world bleeding hearts.  

If you see your reflection in your plate you’re liable to get sick. I don’t clean mine to better health. 




The 30 year bond, the long bond has had a 1 full point range for each day of the last two month that's not cricket in terms of forcing public to make contributions from being forced out due to excessive moves.

Demand replay at the constructal number as to whether it's good

I meant demanded video review of 4200 level crossed the plane or not?



What is best way to model probability of 9 greens or reds in a row and how can one predict crypto from here.

Reading time Ferris tools for titans again and I cant do the things that the warriors suggest there like getting up at 430 and doing 1000 push ups and pullups before going to gym as I had a stroke and was the least athletic champion in racket sports ever, and I abhor Keto

As all the best studies shows that eating a Mediterranean or Okinawa diet adds 8 year sot your life, but the book got me thinking of the most important market question now. the last 20 days high was 4227 , 10 days ago, and the last 20 days low was 4056 , 8 days ago. were now

Now were at 4156 , about half way between the 20 day ow and high, — what is more likely to come in the future. what is the expectation from here, and what is duration?

The entire ecosystem changes as crypto goes down and other markets will change in density and stability.. see Princeton guide to ecology l but in which direction. perhaps Mr. Sogi has an inside

See evolution of communication and ecosystems by Nicoal Loeuille. its all there. There stands Mr. Sogi stable as a caterpillar drinking his Kona coffee again with alacrity and harmony 



A non-handian run of 9 extremes of red or blue. thanks to Aubrey for showing me how to use snipping tool correctly.

There's still a little bit more from top feeders to take from the public.. any little thing is enough.

Reminiscing at a party where a solutuosu guest told Artie that she could defend herself form Mugging with karate she and learned. Now Artie was at Brooklyn collage in wrestling and boxing and football

To be a cop in those days you had to pass a physical that 1 in 200 passed. at the party goers urging Artie grabbed the karate woman in a hold and she meekly surrendered. That was the only time in 40 years of marriage I ever saw my mother Artie fight

True story. but what was the wrestling hold that Artie put her into?

At this rate I wont have any followers left lost about 50 today must have been that Milton Friedman article about why some who were non-establishment became anti establishment and anti capitalist. One must no use the term of their faith here. would be interested to see if founder of Facebook is ashamed also took a half hour longer than usual to hit lows once more into the breach.

Interesting descriptive fact. only once in history had stocks stayed above opening on options expirations at 1130 looked like an anomaly at 1120



I am perhaps the only resident of Slab City to not be molested by fire ants. My familiarity began with a child’s ant farm that developed last year into the Quaker Army Ants.  

They nested under my shipping container where I began feeding them Quaker Oats that resulted in the largest, most energetic, and shiny soldiers of the desert. They dug so deep that summer it undermined the trailer and the door swang shut trapping their commander inside. I had to sledge hammer my way out. 

Their training then began, as I’ve forever fancied leading an army on charge. I left my dirty socks on the ground to accustom them to my odor, and soon could lie down and let them crawl over me without a bite or sting administered by grabbing the flesh with the mandibles, rearing back the abdomen, and injecting the stinger. These are red harvester ants dietarily enhanced to nearly double-size.  

I constructed a maze of a Palo Verde tree blocking off certain limbs with a spray of WD-40 until they zigged and zagged to the top for a reward of Quaker Oats. I stomped my feet and they came running to climb my legs into my pockets for oats. Encouraged, I fashioned a 20-ant wagon from a matchbox and dental floss rein with single oat bits ten along each side. The first 20 ants take the bits and pull the wagon ten yards to their nest where, they disappear down the hole and the wagon jams at the entrance. They chew off the rein and leave the coach that I fill with oats for another run. Commanding the army is like playing General Patton.  

Horses, mules, and ox pull 20-team wagons but only in Slab City do Quaker Army Ants.  




In addition to the relentless new highs we saw a short while ago, there are sideways consolidation periods before an eventual break out.  It can be understandable after massive influx of liquidity, then an end to the surge.  The theory is that the economic momentum will shift to actual production.  Hopefully the supply disruptions will smooth out in a year or so.  I still can't get a hold of a jet ski or outboard. 
I am seeing help wanted signs all over, especially in restaurants which are now just opening back up. 
Timing wise, assuming the 2020 crash was our bear market, there could be  3 or more years of bull market ahead.  The average bull market lasts for 2.7 years. The average frequency between bear markets is 3.6 years.



Biz Question

May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The daytraders know how to get money. X stockbrokers know how and build the relationship to get.the money.

My questions are from a legalistic view. The outcome I desire is to be the owner partner in a legal structure llc? LP? That sells pieces of ownership not exactly shares but yea that's the point. 
From the traders pov.. the qualified investor legal.code is best for biz plan. Would every biz you raise money for have the same limits 30 max as it would be if I was selling myself as a spec?…
Non retail but not into selling the private equity foundation customers as "investor "
I do not dare call one of those angel investor sites to ask them how to do it logistically 
However I'm about to if no one knows here.
Thanks much…lack




May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Bo Keely writes:

Some will sneeze at my advice not to get the Covid vaccine. My credential is having studied epidemiology ad nauseum @ university, and being notified months before Covid came to USA that ‘the next war will not be nuclear but biological, and it will come from China.’ Coronavirus to me is a sham, just a strong cold. People don’t how many millions similar colds have been killing annually for centuries. The cold season was my sub-teaching heyday not because the regulars died, but they were laid up for days. So, my advice is not to get the vaccine. You get it, they will just release another strain demanding a new vaccine. It's a pre-planned money maker. 

Larry Williams writes


Vaccine is not a vaccine that stops you from getting anything; It only abates the symptoms. Ask the Yankees



Penny Brown writes:

So now Fauci comes out with saying that the real death rate might have been much higher - in the range of over 900,000 not the 560,000 number  - so that the cost benefit analysis looks a little better and he can't be faulted.

Steve Ellison  writes

900,000 seems way too high. The Occam's Razor starting point for an estimate would be 504,000, the increase in total US deaths in 2020 compared to 2019, as cited here:



James Lackey writes:

I'm formulating a good question.  The artist question. 

I'll write an essay with my experience in management of artists. We can look at the brutal management of music movies from LA from the roaring 20s til today.

The bad question is how do we profit from artists?  That's an apparent oxymoron.  I get cognitive dissonance. 

I lived in Nashville for 12 years. I made friends will all kinds. I met some rock stars current and retired.  An interesting move was the logistics biz of the industry moved from LA to Nashville to cut costs.

A bad question was why not Indianapolis the best center that my race car brothers use.

The answer is obvious.  Artists can not live in order. Artists turn chaos into order. The hood gets graffiti then Lack moves in and digs the vibe but I hold a job. I pay to improve my homestead . Then the kids see me and set up a bike shop A coffee shop.. Then as Jordan Peterson says the developer comes in and builds condos. The property values skyrocket all the yuppies move in…

The Artists bail. Chaos turns to order.

I've had enough helping my friends turn their paintings or tunes into production projects. 

It's not emotionally profitable and we all know writing isn't financially feasible. 

If I opened a body shop to fix cars I have an artist problem. 

It's actually easier if I wanted to build 100k show cars!

The daily grind to do the backlog of let's say the current market you need painters. 

Painters make 100k a year. The management are idiots and think that's too much.I fixed that by saying ""you paint it.""

The management quickly gets the joke.

The next problem is the talent is paid for 60 hours of labor rate at 50% of the payable. So for every dollar of revenue they collect fiddy cent. That kills management.  I say that's the market let's focus on what we can change.

The logistics of the shop require let's say 100k of equipment per 1 million on gross. I quickly pointed out the under utilization of capacity is almost as bad as church buildings. 

They said "we cant" 

I know you can't but if you could how would you do it?"

""make these lazy guys that only work 50 hours a week and make 100k work more! ""

Umm omg no! They are happy. That's the point of life.

"Ok…lack hire more painters and keep this shop humming 24 7.

Now your on it!

""I can't find qualified techs.""

Omg stop! Quit blaming society or my goodness the markets for your losses or lack of problems. 

I sound like my trading brothers here when I had losses or no profit when everyone else was doing fine.

The artist will clearly do his own thing 

It's a bit more complicated lol 

Yea Lack it's complicated Allright don't go into biz for profit when you need must have artist. 

OK what if I have to?

Help! Haha.

Laurence Glazier writes

The most opulent road in London, The Bishop's Avenue, was once a trendy artist neighbourhood, and is now full of derivative mansions and lacks charm. The Studios where I am based, whose inception seems to have encouraged eateries and other studios to set up, have now been taken over by a developer. I think this will be good in the long term.

A relationship between agent and artist is often to the benefit of neither. Gombrich said "There is no such thing as art. There are only artists".

I met his wife once. She was an exponent of the Leschetitsky piano tradition and I think may have known the great man. She would take no money for showing me how to play a scale, and it was a great experience.




May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

These is a beauty to the fateful way the  stocks followed  their  inevitability  today with a nice  100  big point range and everything of duplicity  in between,



The day where bonds are limit up and stocks are limit down.

As usual it will be the day after every pattern, program and system designed to go all in is triggered.  These are the ghosts of traders past.
The reason is the bearded one or now the six trillion dollar man sends his Lackey on TV at 5am. All the clients of the central already knew. We are the last to know.
Due to the eco systems of the markets not our unbelievable skills and luck we escape alive.
Days later the TV Lackey disappeared and the Sixtrillion dollar man humbled comes to testify. ""It is the long term goal of the central depot to stop printing forever. 'However'it will be some time and 'measured." The reversal is reversed and Lack goes on tilt.
We run out side with 2 cans of tennis balls or kick garbage cans. I yell that's why I'm not a Lackey. I'm Lack and my forefathers left Europe 200 years ago. You Un American non play fair to win bastards!
Then I hear my Dad's voice.
Calm down son. Get back in there and do your race.
Thanks pops. Son…win.
That's why pattern day traders hate global macro. 



Starting may 10 3 reds followed by two green and this week starting with may 17 , 3 reds in a row. Mr. David hand would say this is manifestation of randomness. I say it s not random, in predictive sense.

Nice rise in gold in last 20 days from 1748 t to 1870 

He who not be mentioned pint scout the similarity of herd like behavior of oxe, birds, cats, and humans to not having to scratch on a living for themselves. everything market move is stimulus bill. the more likely the more bull

Nice article in newspaper that may not be mentioned on suppression of science articles that are not double blind but have ample supportive evidence from social media platforms.

Its a collaborators birthday today and I'm taking her to a fish dinner and thru with mutton for a day.

My favorite fish dinner is at Sam's bush street petrale with some pancake anisette from 60 years ago

looks like I may having barnacles and whelk

Perhaps some turtle soup is left.

Thought for a minute it would be collaborators treat

There stands Mr. Sogi preventing me from ordering a full bottle of the expensive sauterne 



Camp meeting between infrastructure twins of opposite sex was particularly important as all American showing sighs of mortality.

Apparently the minutes were cryptic music must have distracted temporarily.

What's all the talk about tapering how will that engender the pickle ball infrastructure in Orange county.

This will be played at new facility in Orange country.

Very poor emphasis of slice at net rather than hard too.

A sendoff worthy of Patrick O Brian and Captain crozier and Professor Bejan



Finally got a reservation at Keenes.



Ordered take out mutton, only goat beats mutton for start of hard day.

Nock has a beaut passage about the birds outside of his window. they're fed by the housekeepers and they forgot or don't wish anymore to scratch up a living for themselves. Elmer Kelton has a similar passage about the cat in the bard versus the car in the house. the former

The cat in barn can spot ,neutralize a mouse from 5 feet away. the cat in the house always fed generously by Mary would wither away without her sufferance. with so many public getting almost as much or more, on the dole, will they ever be able or willing to get back real job

P.312 memoires of a superfluous man "every day I divert myself with watching outside my window, a concourse (cont)



Often come across situation where we have alternate forecasts of an event. for example today, a forecasts based on the close on Friday is bearish but a forecasts base on the logoboal is bullish. how to combine? a good source with many answers is. was asked to attend sage annual meeting to discuss why not to invest in sage stock. learned from the interview. His ping pong game is poor. he hits with stiff arm. he admires wealth of nation in addition to graham books his best friend is gates.

Main lesson left out pay attention to service expenses ,save them in every conceivable way, including dividends of companies bought, and rates paid by companies owned, be strident cheerleaders for higher rates for yourself and other wealthy. bridge is good game. breaking the four minute mile in stocks. when will someone do a study of the price performance of stocks breaking 1000 for first time, like Ethereum, tesla, I tried to do this 60 years ago but haven't seen proper study since. A file including all deletions is necessary.

A nice retrospective list 

couldn't get a reservation at Keenes over weekend as it ran out of space for social distancing . so we will call that one a draw . and note that Lobogola lives 




A foundation: we have witnessed a strake of 3 big declines in a row followed by a streak of 2 big rises. such has happened only 6 times in last 10 could be a while to digest the muttons keenes. a key ..she operated a phone bank for Joe Biden 



As I am too decrepit and acerbic to drive myself I ordered an Uber for a quarter after.

I read in my favorite book "the time it never rained "that most ranchers prefer goat meet and mutton to lamb as it settles easier on the stomach.



Strange as it seems my guess is that it will stop its Herculean rise in 15 miniute . and then a little negativity after that the construal's back on for a record but let me emphasize this is only a wild guess , especially when one goes against the drift.

One had a reminiscence with my latest wild guess . I wrote a book in which I suggested that practiciones that (cont)

As tom said " take care of the draws and the wins will take care of themselves. ill call this one a slit win -Darwish. with the vig I the infrastructure is the only one that profits.

One is reminder that Hobo said to me " you should pay me to be around you because I am the only one that makes you look good by comparison. the infrastrue and the market makers should pay me for making wild guesses where the only one that profits is them.

Nikkei jumps 20 as operatives exit hotel.

You have to hand it to the ingenious innovator. he realizes that only way to make a sustained profit like the palindrome and the sage and all the other bilious billionaires is to become a climate person. we're ruining things with global change. reduce the service audits by 99%

I sold some spf at 1100 pm est at 4120.00 and made a few pts out of it . unbelievably from 11000 to 1130 pm was the only half hour it went up yet. as I don't ever like to be short, I read birth to a salesman y by Walter Friedman an excellent book. I learned about ncr in 1903 " thru news letters journals and speeches, Patterson communicated his theories about work and life to ncr agents. it frequently ran articles on work of horace fletcher, the advocate of thoroughly masticating freedom he hired Charles Paalmer who displayed active

Palmer active intertext in phrenology , physiognomy.. Patterson was obsessed by the numeral 5 and we spent endless time on it. for example, 5 things they must do and 5 things they must avoid. some thought Patterson a lunatic," what company today is like the ncr of yesterday.

I often tell my kids and guests to thoroughly Fletcherite the food we have

Incredibly the pprobability of Kamala Harris versus Biden for the pres. nomination in 2024 decreased today. apparently " not supposed to speak " is a sign of strength

Boys have lots of energy after "resting with cigarette"

Hats off to the algo for figuring that one out and canceling some of my good followers who all believe like me and grand innovator in climate

There is a certain beauty and majesty as to how the lobogola today was so fateful and how deceptive it was

As the man who can not be named would say " this is a grandeur in this view of life and markets

Andy Aiken hit the nail on head Andrew Aiken via 2:52 PM (1 minute ago) to spec-list (cont)

You cant have breakfast all day

Had some mutton at Keens after doing a little shorting at close. see you fair Germany

While at Keens one mite have been able to try the mutton sampler and the Lamb with the proceeds of that last 20 pt drop if one was not just a ageing shooting star.

" No men on horses will be served at bar"



My current project is mentoring.  I take the perfect candidates for sales. The B C students from state school. I have two requirements for them to be hired.

First requirement is they must be an athlete.  Second requirement is they have an insecurity about their smarts.
First is easy for specs to understand why Lack would choose them. The second is a bit complex.  The gist is people that are insecure about being smart are in general smart. The passion to be their best self is the key.
Path duration outcome is what we use in sports to train prepare and race. I was never the best athlete,  even in high school. However,  when I won a  national event level race, it was most often luck by being the best prepared.
I walked the desert alone for 400 days. Jesus was perfect and did it in 40. I'm blessed to have a fantastic father that waited 4 months for me to get my head straight before he passed away. I made dad two promises.  The one I will share here today is the old Lack you remember.  Son…never ever ever give up.
Everyone gets happy and sad.  The magnitude of the emotions is what funds the psychology departments.  I found them to be fantastic in the VA type trauma ptsd Jazz. I think the Docs there are forced to learn the right path out of respect for warriors. Of course I found my brothers to be the most helpful. 
Post divorce I crashed so hard mentally we began with the hardware of the brain first.
A good question was O as messed up physically as an NFL player? How many times have I been knocked out cold racing ABA BMX on a national level? How many others riding locals or trails on my YZ80 as a 11 year old boy up thru the Army?
Next was drugs alcohol etc. No issues there as I was an athlete.  The times when I chose to not be an athlete yes I would drink too many beers. That was an easy fix. I didn't drink at all basically for 20 years. Just don't OK cool no big deal.
Yet the S Side Chicago kid knows all about the effects of drugs. I know alcohol boosts me therefore that's adrenaline.  I realized weed chills, Serotonin.
I realized my mother stresses me out and she thinks it's funny. Cortisol.  My pops is pure joy comedy get the joke son! Dopamine. 
The power of Myth Joseph Campbell was my favorite class at state school. That and Doc Fordyce the 14 fundamentals of happiness.  Why focus on bad things past life issues focus on the future.  His class book and research was focused on scientifically discovery of what makes people happy.
Any cop that knew Lackeys it was for two reasons.  We had hot rods and dirt bikes. I told you guys the story of the cop car sitting in my driveway when I pushed my dirt bike from the park past the pond thru the back yard to the hose to wash it. Dad's face was sad and disgust.  
The other that no one knows about was street racing. I did an amazing smokey burnout. It was so good the cop on his way home from work witnessed the infraction.
He was red faced furious at me. I had friends in the car.
I deserved the careless driving ticket.  He took mercy on my good attitude and did not give me wreckless. There was another problem.  Yea you guessed it. We had party paraphernalia in the floor of the back seat. 
Those days 25 years ago they invented drug court. It's a good concept.  For me it was easy and wonderful.  I do not think I had to pay a fine. The judge said hey kids. This entire episode did not happen legally if you go to class and piss clean for 30 days. I'm in!
It was so easy. My counselor was totally cool and said kid you don't have to do any of this book class stuff. Your an athlete I like you! Yaay..
UT oh whats the catch? You need to talk to someone I know in order to find out what makes you so F. In stupid to be 25 acting 15 doing burnouts on the street with others in the car and you know better your a race car driver never do that on the street again.  I'm sorry yes sir.. good get out of here knucklehead. 
Mommy and daddy issues aside they gave me 5 gold stars for my mental health and attitude.  I enjoyed the process. It was a dumb kid luck to find that path. These shrinks are cool to talk to. Lastly he said we'll Lack seeing your Irish and the drunken pirates go back 10,000 years in your genetic code and behaviors family wise what are you going to do.
I got this dude! I'll never drink again! Lack your an athlete and you know great athletes don't touch the stuff so..OK 
I believe you.  Thanks doc it's been a pleasure. 
Wait one sec kid. I have an important question.  What's one thing you can think of that would cause you to binge drink? A celebration.  No dice.
Winning the lottery? Umm no.
OK how about if your hero died.
My pops no way. Give me one.
If I lost my I dunno be married have 5 kids and an enemy warrior killed them.
Ok… I still remember the look of shock on his face. He didn't say a word. I'm gone!
Twenty five years later the divorce was final. Before I knew it I'm working the 11 to 9 shift at Toyota down town. Talk about fun!  Turns out Nashville is the girls Bachelorette go to destination. Better these 25 year old brides and friends have 45 year old single moms celebrating with them. I'm sure you get where this is going.
I'm working 6 days a week 11 to 9 staying out til 3 am and sleeping to 9 am. That's a recipe for disaster. 
Before I knew it two years went by and nothing of substance was accomplished.  It was fun until it wasn't.  Dad called. He needed me. Turns out I needed dad.
End of life Lackey stories are fantastic.  It's the lighting bolt at 80 on the 18th green after a birdie. My great grand father Lackey the Franklinian printer Rand McNally was watching a Cubs game at 93 smoking a cigar. That dude went from Dad Civil War to horse and buggy cars planes to hold me then literally see the first Man on the Moon! He was my dad's hero and taught him everything is always better.  Wow…he was the man!
I get to pops. He can't move. The 50 years of intense physical labor destroyed his body. His mind was as sharp as ever.  Son you want a beer? OK cool take it easy your brother needs you too. OK cool pops.
My brother took my dad's one truck and trailer operation and turned it 10x. They primarily mow lawns in Florida.  I remember the heat and for thus white boy it's hard. When I had to work for pops at 22 just out of Saudi it was hard. Here was Lack 50 all wet and out of racing shape.
Ninty days of that I was back at the dealership.  I had a wonderful first day. I made friends sold some cars and made some cake! Day two was a disaster. 
I sold a new priest to what I now know is a narcissistic psycho.  One of those handicapped plaque people that scream about the lack of handicapped access. From what I could tell her bad back was 99.7% better than poor pops at home couched.
This psycho screamed at my manager because I sold her a new car that was really used.
Her beef was the miles on the odometer.  It had 333… I know I disclosed that. The car was a dealer trade from 300 miles away. There was no form signed.
Life is best when you ask good questions.  I had 3. What in the hades happened? Why am absolutely in Florida in this ungodly heat? Why am I selling cars? What past sins did I do that I'm obviously unaware of to cause me to be divorced lose my family unit?
What saved me was family.  Sure pops bro and sissy. 
My kids. They are fantastic. They were my best allies always cool never once got pissed off at me. That's remarkable. 
Of course they never blamed me. It wasn't my fault! I wasn't the guy that did not want to be married and happy.
Or was it?
I had a panic attack at the dealership. I don't think since the 100 hours in 91 I've had such a feeling of being scared to death, but not afraid to die.
Brothers of this August list if you know anything know this.
A warrior is capable of anything in that state.
I came home and dad said your early.  The words that came out of my mouth were from the history channel.  My dad said son.  I need you to stay in the house. Do not leave stay off the sauce and go to bed.. oh first go ride your bike run puke then take a shower and go to bed.
Like any 12 year old boy in crises that loves his dad more than anything,  I just did it without question. 
My step mom Margie is an angel. She nursed my pops physically and me mentally.
I walked the desert alone for 400 days. I learned meditation healing the neuroscience of the brain. Andrew Huberman of California is my Musk. If musk can teach himself rocket science I can teach myself how to trick my brain into production of the right chemical to produce happiness.  At first it was healing from trauma.  Now it's the path duration outcome of what we used in athletics to train the muscles and mind to race. I can do it for anything!
Dad died. The story we tell ourselves is the battle of past present future self. My story is dad would have past in April 19 if I was OK. He waited til August. 
My son his beautiful wife and their family set up a fantastic wedding.  The first thing my sister said to me shocked me out of the fog. Jimmy at the hospital with dad when he died I asked you about Austin's wedding.  You looked thru me and I didn't think you could come.
What! Seriously? No way oh cone on I'm fine. OK bro.
The next shock was my son.
At the wedding he said dad your not feeling good? Huh I'm happy talking to everyone. 
Yea dad your great. 
But your not dancing. I thought maybe your not physically feeling well. Oh…
Covid was by far the best thing the economy/government has ever done for me! I was forces to stop. When they shut the car dealers down for 30 days omg.
I went to Charlotte to visit my Cheyenne.  She's fantastic a future mathematics professional for sure. Chey and I played all day for 30 days. Dad please stay.  OK! I call the dealers and find the worst performance in sales. In that business if you want to make a huge impact send a guy that knows how and why with a fantastic attitude to the worst dealership and change happens.  It's best for my bank balances and at this point my self esteem. I needed that.
Of course everything worked out and my accounts mind body and spirit are in fine fiddle.
Yaay! UT oh…what?
Well if Lack is back we all know the car lot is probably not the best place. We all know being a day trader is out. Finance blah..naaa.. money runner. No!
Sales sure..wait what yes! 
OK cool passion running a BMX team training teaching riding..yes! I'm fiddy I can sure. Yes I'm in the shape to run national events…
I'm not in the mood to be laid up for 6 weeks with a clavicle.  So regrettably I'll spectate 
Race cars! Yes I'm back. Omg so much fun but…I forgot how dumb this money thing gers I'll be 200k deep…uff. oh no I just want to ride work out have fun spectators life. OK cool.
Ummm… ya know what? I've never in my life absolutely focused on making money.
My kids could use a fund to start biz my 9 month old grand daughter needs a million for university in 18 years. OK cool let's do that.  Money comes so easy when you have skills passion and we all know 72 hour weeks are kinda fun when your doing your thing.
OK so I dig these 23 year old  athletes with a BA in anything that are kinda pissed they just blew 100k on a degree and are forced to sell cars. A matter of fact it's a match made in heaven. My no plan ad hoc Socratic method drives CPA type management insane. That also give me great pleasure.  As we both know they are not needed. So they are either totally cool to me. Or they blow themselves up and quit on the dealers dime. Any dealership with an entrepreneur owner loves me. The others simply don't.  No hard feelings as they literally say Lack your amazing but… it's not a good fit. My buddies own this and I called them and they want you.
My question is now what? Buy a dealer? This consulting thing leaves my heart empty. 
I'll put it this way.
I had a wonderful conversation with our brother of the August lists Scott Brooks. His business is wonderful! I'm so happy for him. The right path is certainly there.  I noticed his buzz words triggers he utilized explaining how what where and why are absolutely designed to provide 
Cortisol adrenaline dopamine Serotonin 
And Aaaaaa
The love bond men are from mars.Vasaprecin…
Women are from Venus
OK cool so I ask Mr Vic if one of his daughters was it Galt that knows this jazz and can help Lack dial in this program. 
I've done enough work to know. I'm working it to know how.
The last step is to just do it.
Thanks and live this list! It's every state school kids Masters program here. We all know that for trading for a living.
Love, Lack.
Ps. Melvin… hey this was one shot no edit 7am gym parking lot phone fyi. Mr Vic taught me writing isn't worth the profits. However toss some words into a printed package and it makes an amazing biz card huh? I apologize to you publicly as you checked on me 5 times in Florida and now you know why I never showed.
There is a desert in the Cape.



The great question has yet to be formed.  The question I have is young adults have some sort of mental issue. I believe every human does. To what extent can the Huberman labs explanations of the mind body contract be used to cure?

I'm not interested in helping with mental  illness.  We all know from volunteering with either addicts or X cons there is a line we can not cross.  If the hardware of the brain is broken perhaps only meds can keep then on task.
My question is of the software.  If a young man had an alcoholic abuse mean dad can the reprogramming of the mind body contract work? Or does this kid need years of counseling?
When reading the books in the local college I quickly went spec list crazy with their use of "may" or "suggests" and the head Docs say " they show the signs of"
I prescribed X for sad z for too happy.
What evidence do you have to report at what confidence interval that this "illness" even exists?
Omg their heads explode when I said
"Bear markets do not exist "
My point is one of Mr Vic and the way he looks at market tests and puts a probability on the hypothesis. 
I'm not good enough to see if the papers are correct on mental health. I'm not even going to try and ask the right questions. I read or hear maybe probability and
I quickly call BS. Reading psychology makes me realize ""we do not know how exactly this works but it does.""
Why don't you figure this out and drop the aderol Prozac?
Can we, occoms razor this down to the law of least effort? Can we use neuroscience and athletic training of path duration outcome and teach kids how to work? Can we make the world a better and yes a more profitable place.
Love Lack.
Here is a big idea..
 Let's all put down our side arms and get these August lists back into one.
After talking to a few specs I realized every one loves each other like father son brothers uncles. 
Vic brought us all together.  Put down the petty ideas of openess or being able to use curse words. 
Everyone has daddy issues or cane and able brother wars.
 The love you have for……
For goodness sakes…
..Out of the love you have for your best self. Please!
Let's all get back together on one list one spec party and make my life amazing. 
I love you all more than you can imagine.  Most of you know this about Lack. I do call it as I see it.
As Ms Susan said the day she met me is lack you are real what you see is what you get.
What I see and get from every single member on here for 20 years is self improvement. I learn from everyone.
If not uff.. that sucks.
Going back and forth between lists on and off list is 
Too hard.
Epstiens law of least effort 
"Man satisfies he needs and desires with the least effort "



Ag Outlook

May 12, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Kim Zussman writes:

Bud Conrad writes

Kim, Thanks

The article really nails things with great charts that are making me worry that I shouldn't water any plants or trees, so I can have enough to drink.

We normally have a fire season that starts in Late summer. This year the warnings start in May make me worry about a repeat of last summer's worst-ever, orange smoky days of terrible fires..



Nasdaq2 at 13346 and SP at 4149 .. double sogi's a rare need a telescope in honor of Harold Weaver a most eminent and amical and sagacious astronomer who audited my class at the suggestion of another great MFM Osborne.

Can you take a minute from the surfing to prepare some Kona, Mr. Sogi 


12 perhaps Bill will be looking for a Asian woman who knows many languages. . as Rumpole say:" why is it always the woman that causes the rift :"



Jack Cook writes:

Now I know why Mr. Softy owns so much farm land…

New research from Princeton University and Bloomberg confirms that renewables require 300 - 400 times more land than natural gas and nuclear plants

KK Law writes

The answer is yes and no. It could be somewhat offset if homeowners would let solar cells be installed on their roof tops. Also, the calculation is likely based on legacy solar cell technologies with low optical to electric efficiency. I am not against renewables but I will read anything with a grain of salt.

Henry Gifford writes:

The vast majority of house roofs are not well suited to solar because they are not at the optimal angle (latitude angle from horizontal), not at the optimal azimuth (South), and shaded. This does not stop anyone from installing them on roofs of homes.

A more suitable location is roofs of large stores and warehouses, where there is no shade, and they can be oriented optimally, and where a large need for electricity is located immediately below.

Another benefit of locating them on commercial buildings is that they offset purchase of electricity at higher (commercial) prices.

As warehouse roofs are generally not utilized for anything else, the panels arguably occupy zero space, which the study authors presumably thought of.

The reason so many panels are installed on house is politics - taxpayers paying for someone’s social statement. In New York City the subsidies have advanced the industry to where they are routinely installed flat or vertical, in the shade, or facing North (Columbus Ave & 100st, for example). I have never met anyone who likes solar panels enough to pay for them with their own money.

Whenever I see wind turbines the land under them is being used for farming or grazing or etc. Saying they use a lot of land is like saying planes use up all the land they fly over.

Henry Gifford

Stefan Jovanovich writes

HG's comments are, as always, wonderfully exact.  Our new roof that will go up this week will not have solar panels because no one in NC is willing to pay us for the waste of money; in California they were happy to.



Perhaps of interest to fans of progressive rock, I recently had a chat
on the Big Yellow Praxis podcast about concept albums. Check it out here:



From our scientist….

Astragalus root has been used for centuries in Chinese medicine and is one of those "super foods" that is so jam packed with very biologically active molecules.

The astragalus root is most typically consumed in the form of a tea, but Chinese medicine also uses it as a salve for wound healing. This is what gave someone the idea that its ingredients should be tested as telomerase activators.

But you have to purify the root 40,000 times to get pure cycloastragenol. So it would take eating over a hundred pounds of root material per year to get a full dose. But as you can see, the plant has plenty of other things to offer.




May 7, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The bio  Life of Mozart  by Edward Holmes is highly recommended. Holmes is the  ideal biographer . He was a fine musician and  read  of Mozart's letters and spoke to all who know Mozart and  read the originals of all  of Mozart's compositions.  The book was written info 1840 and describes  all aspects of  Mozart's life. I found the   hereditary genius part  based on  his father Leopold  was a fine man who  was a scholar of violin. Mozart himself had a ebullient  persona and was always gullible.  he could write music from the time he as 5 and  could  play an p  piece at sight  or ear from   piano or violin. He used all the instruments in the orchestra and was  mall treated by  almost all the nobility especially the Electors  and Archbishop of Austria. You learn so  much and are inspired by the book.



I'll try a little against the batters on base.

Meeting at Camp Kinderland revised the numbers to augment calls for infrastructure for pickle ball et al? 

Replay based on appeal of previous play upholds appeal that she didn't go.

Relief pitcher comes in two minutes.



The river has not yet breached the dam at 4200 at the end of light.

Query: what day in April was the last unemployment released?

Thankfully the bonds receded today from their 20 day hi thereby the bond vigilantes return out of their hiding and drink juice.

The barrel didn't cross the plane .

Apparently the employment situation is favorable tomorrow. 

Pickleball coming to orange county for infrastructure 2 mill . along with just 1/4 million for infrastructure for former president. wife library. I a point of order. having played every racket game a nd according to Hobo Kelly. I was the best ever in the racket games, — the pickle ball top players are better than the comparable camps in paddle tennis and platform tennis. they can all hit backhand volleys flat hard.

All the top pickleball players dive for shots.. I saw pickle ball played in a Pittsburg coliseum that would have held 4 racquetball courts. it had 75 pickleball courts in it. The cost of laying down 1 pickleball court must be 1/100 of the cost of a racquetball court.

A heroical Vic, Few have heard of Carlos Hathcock despite the fact that he’s one of the most accomplished (cont)

Did the Sage give his approval after trying to bring them together in following his harmonious actions in refusing to allow spouse to continue as cocktail waitress?

Checked swing at 4199.50. question for our baseball experts. especially Mr. Bastian. it seems to a rookie like me that Cole on his pitch end up off balance on his left wobbly foot. doesn't this present him from proper defense? what is market analogy? 

Market fouls 4 balls at 4199.50 a quadruple top never holds. guessing that " she will go" she went while I writing this. 



7 interesting analogy to breaking thru 4000 in the sp. first stagnation then astounding progress. story of zapotek reminds me of when he propagandized me at UN award ceremony but that[s another story.

Apparently mlb viewership is up over 2020 and 2019 . what is the implication of this for the call for boycott over Atlalnta and the market? 

Apparently coke knew that hat they are doing with support of removal and lawyers billing hours for diversity.

A meandering cataclysms on the way to next constructal. Mr. Pele continuing his pele like efforts energize opposition. that's bull. First he lost the senate . next he kicks the ball away from the house




Another reason that I stepped down was that I felt that if I ever mentioned the depth of my feelings against the woke things happening that I would ruin it for Yelena. fortunately, the herd feels that Woke is bull so it didn't hurt my guesses too much. by the way if there is any.

One that has forecasted the market better than we did in the four months we were together, Ill eat my hat. note that we caught the big bearish days when the fed couldn't woke it up. and we were with the weather gage from a continuous 36000 to 4200.

A typical video showing gregarious nature of buffalo that wasn't canceled.

I empathize with the diversity of not Atlanta and coke as far as market goes. so I am a little rusty on baseball. what do they call it when the batter has two strikes against him ,he takes a partial swing? something like did he go for it? please tell me as i love base ball.

The official call is " he went around at 3; 51 ET.

Guess the firmament doesn't like baseball. I lost 20 followers with the baseball checked swing. could it have a nothing to do with coke?

Interesting from the life of Mozart. they had hi frequency musicians in Vienna. when Mozart at 12 yrs scheduled to perform his opera. all the Viennese musicians refused to let him conduct or perform so as not to be embarrassed from the claques in Italy. 



Highly recommended book. The Life of Mozart by Edward Holmes. Learn about a great and optimistic genius , and his music and the hard life he was subjected to. Never has a biographer been more qualified and more diligent than Holmes. A model of Biography also highly recommended book. The Life of Mozart by Edward Holmes. Learn about a great and optimistic genius , and his music and the hard life he was subjected to. Never has a biographer been more qualified and more diligent than Holmes. A model of Biography also the river flow gets slower and slower and narrower and narrower. regardless of the physic s its not good for the top feeders there's not enough vig.

It is amazing how all the predators like lions that attack buffalos never find the buffalos herd helping. even if there ae 50 buffalo they stand idly by while the lion does his lethal thing. He who may not be mentioned writes about the slavish and herd like behavior. He writes about the impossibility of finding an oxen or buffalo to lead the herd. He likens the herding and following behavior or these beast to humans and I would liken them to market participants.

I would recommend the Sennett Aiken blog to your consideration. Andy knows many things that I don't know at all e.g. individual stocks ad crypto . would suggest that between them they will provide valuable insight s better than any other source.

I stepped down from the podcast because I am ageing and the task of staying up with all the woke as well as a market insight or two was interfering with my trading,, eating, and sleeping. I was sorry to big adieu and thanks for all the kind thoughts that were sent. 




May 2, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi  writes:

The subject of Losing gets pushed under the rug in this woke world, but is an interesting subject and should be studied and examined.

Accepting loss, and understanding why is an important process.  Was the loss due to a mistake, lack of training, improper technique. Was the other guy just a better human or did he just work harder and longer, and try harder,?    Did you try your hardest? Was there some other mental stuff holding you back.  There are some tough questions, but questions that need to be examined to improve.

Sports competition is good for young people because it teaches how to lose.  A big part of sportsmanship is losing with grace.  

Some people really hate to lose, and it  holds them back.  I hear people verbally arguing, and rather than lose, they will start escalating and go for the jugular, and making personal attacks.  It's counter productive in life, in marriage, in business.  Fear of losing causes people to not try their hardest for fear that it will not be good enough and that they are inferior.  Fear of losing causes people not to take risks to avoid the pain of loss and the accompanying questions. Fear of losing is fear of realizing that you may not be good enough, and that your self delusion about yourself will be shattered.

Millennials grew up in the "everyone is a winner" generation, leading them to a sense of unjustified self entitlement and bewilderment at their lack of success.

A statistical    approach to losing is an excellent way to understand losing.  In a sample of  trials, some will be losers, some winners.  It has to happen. Hopefully you will have more winners over time, and the wins will be larger than the losses.  The distributions of a few big wins, which total more than many small losses are hardest. A common distribution is lots of small wins, and a few big losses which is related to the fear of losing issue.

Was the loss due to bad judging, prejudiced judges, corruption, bad system, unavoidable (shit happens)  type stuff.  In ski mountaineering, you can be cautious, but there is unavoidable objective hazard, such as an earthquake while you are in the mountains.  

There are some good tangents. Mitigation of risk is big.  The subject of luck is a good one.  There are many things you can't control: some are favorable, some not, and they affect you and your life.  Was your so called success due to luck or skill?. Its the black swan thesis. What percent is luck, and what part skill?  Did you overcome your circumstances, and handcaps, or did you squander your talents?

Though I don't about it gambling is a good field to study losing as discussed by Kelly, our friend, Ralph Vince..

James Lackey writes

What evidence do we have to support the statement about Millennials?

We know my kids yours brooks vics Stephan Gordon and I'm sorry how many others here..

Oh sure I knew your not talking about me us but….I've been mentoring just out of college kids or drop outs and I've never experienced the generalized view.

However my son does have cohort frustration.That's not a win loss handle it emotionally issue it's a work goal reality issue

Sorry if I hijacked your thread

Ken Sadofsky writes:

Is the list dissolving; the decency of adieSau. would have been appreciated.

Cheers for alice. 1939 5 top films n more. what would vic say?

James Lackey writes

Did you take my comments as not fit for British Navy dinner table?

I'm certain it is US Army Officers club cool. 

Please explain why. 



Here is another anecdote about the heating economy.  I put my old sailboat up for sale the other day.  I got 2 offers within hours of putting it up for sale. I am trying to buy another boat.  I saw a nice one that was put up for sale, and it sold in under 2 hours.  Just saw another one… same, sold in under 5 hours.  I hear the same thing from my real estate friends, and now in the news about homes going into overbids, no contingencies, panic type buying.  

In past cycles, I remember real estate going up 10% a month for months at a time. 
I guess the unemployment figures the other day were good and Labogola'd the market up in the afternoon, but the juice didn't last through to today.

Also,  I was looking at new jet skis, but there are none in stock…all used inventory sold out.  Looking at outboard motors.

Same thing, no inventory anywhere, long waits from factory.   



It's anyone's game from her.



Finally a move through constructal 42000 to new all time high with maximum of big corp capture of crisis mentality. the gradual taking off of masks should exert a ebullience.

Sound waves from Andy Aiken and Vic's pod cast of April 28 exist but no sound has reached human ears. can someone help us transmit our hard thought efforts to the public.

Some biotech, crypto, and SP regularities , and discussion of whether government capital spending trumps private capital spending, - the ebullience of taking off masks, the invasion of individualism recedes 

It seems to me that the 4200 level would be an apt time to revisit all the policies that will stifle innovation ,@ the mutually beneficial voluntary exchange that has led to the tremendous increase in prosperity and decline in poverty over past years . a good ref.

Bastiats parable of the broken window seems highly apt to me. all the 6 trillion of spending mite have led to more productive activates by the public as memorized by the followers of Bastiat, Hayek, Ridley, and Jeremy Siegel



The calm before the storm. ie one had to forecast it wouldn't be bull.. North Carolina where I visited two duke students in family invaded by snatchers. Duke itself a chimera of snatchers.

Everything that flows has in itself the tendency to reconfigure its path so that it flows more and more easily" - Adrian Bejan April 25, 2021 

In a meeting with Adrian Bejan on April 25, he added a a feature to his constructal theory related to market moves that I presented to him. the theory is that the market moves thru cataracts. - a waterfall followed by a temporary reduction in the flow to a new constructal 


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