E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Monday, July 12, 2021
Most of today’s trade will center on the release of the monthly WASDE report. This will contain the adjustment to stocks and acreage that were released on June 30th. For the most part trade is expecting to see a slight decline to old crop reserves of both corn and soybeans. Old crop wheat stocks should equal the June 1st inventory number of 844 million bu. We are at a stage where more interest will be placed on new crop balance sheets for grains and soybeans. There are some thoughts that we could see adjustments to yields following the drought conditions in the Upper Plains and Pacific Northwest. This is especially the case for corn and wheat. The current average wheat yield estimate is for 50.7 bushels per acre, and the corn estimate is for 179.5 bushels per acre. The most interest has fallen on corn where some estimates have taken nearly 10 bushels off the USDA yield. If accurate, this would put the United States further into a rationing situation on new crop corn stocks. A reduction to the US soybean yield is unlikely at this time as August is when that crop tends to be more impacted by weather, which would leave the yield at 50.8 bushels per acre. 

* Global freight rates rising
* More Covid restrictions placed
* So America undercuts US in global market
* Canadian drought expected to worsen
* US crop ratings to hold steady tonight 
* Brazil production to keep expanding
* US ethanol values under pressure
* US economic recovery slows
* July WASDE at 11:00 AM CT
* Attention will quickly return to US weather 

* US yield est 178 bpa
* US crop size est 15 bbu
* Old crop carryout est 1.09 bbu
* New crop carryout est 1.39 bbu
* Global 21/22 carryout est 287 mmt 
* US yield est 50.6 bpa
* US crop size est 4.37 bbu
* Old crop ending stocks est 136 mbu
* New crop carryout est 140 mbu
* World 21/22 ending stocks est 92.3 mmt

* US total production est 1.84 bbu
* Old crop carryout est 845 mbu
* New crop carryout est 711 mbu
* World 21/22 ending stocks est 295.8 mmt
* Most attention on US spring crop
* US year meat exports a record
* Yearly meat exports +5% from last year
* Weaker US dollar benefitted meat demand  
* China to produce more hogs in foreign countries
* US pork demand is slowing

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.