Analyzing “the deal”: As Iran & White House claim victory, what will Israel & the Saudis do now?

Chief negotiator Catherine Ashton and Iran's foreign minister announce agreement on Iran's nuclear program early on Sunday, November 24 in Geneva. (Getty Images/CNN)

Chief negotiator Catherine Ashton and Iran’s foreign minister announce agreement on Iran’s nuclear program early on Sunday, November 24 in Geneva. (Getty Images/CNN)

UPDATED WITH NEW ARTICLES & COMMENTARY: (Washington, D.C.) —  The deal is done. The Iranian leaders are claiming victory. The White House is claiming victory. Most European governments, as well as Russia, are claiming victory.



Below, you’ll find a selection of key articles I’ve found helpful over the past 72 hours in understanding the deal and the reaction to it from various quarters. Above all, I encourage you to read the full text of the “interim deal” for yourself, along with President Obama’s statement, the Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s comments. These primary source documents will give you the basic facts and contours of the debate.

Then, we need to ask two critical questions:

  1. What will the Saudis do now?
  2. What will the Israelis do now?

The Saudis have been signaling in recent weeks that they are losing confidence in their alliance with the U.S., they are increasingly prepared to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan, and they might even create a tacit alliance with Israel and the Gulf states as a bulwark against Iran. Is all that bluster, or is Riyadh serious?

Meanwhile, the initial consensus among most Mideast analysts is that Israel is now constrained from launching preemptive military strike lest the Netanyahu government risk a massive backlash from the international community that has just agreed to an “interim” agreement with Iran, pending a “comprehensive” agreement in 2014. I have posted a few examples of such views below. But I’ve also posted several examples of Israelis saying this deal makes a preemptive strike more likely, and possibly even inevitable, especially if the Saudis will help. Is this true, or just the bluster of those frustrated by what they perceive as the world’s betrayal?


I don’t want to see a scenario like the one I portrayed in Damascus Countdown unfold. I’d much rather see a diplomatic solution that truly worked. That said, I’m deeply concerned that the world powers just let themselves be hoodwinked by the mullahs in Iran, and that the world has suddenly become a much more dangerous place, with Iran in a better position to build and deploy nuclear weapons.






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