• Energy and Health Care Parallels: Maximizing Electric Utility Social Welfare.

      Reynolds, Douglas (2020-12-14)
      This pod cast, based on a paper from the 4th IAEE Eurasian Conference in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, is about electric power markets. It considers consumer sovereignty in U.S. health care markets and then looks at the parallels between those health care markets and electric power markets. It then shows how one particular U.S. health care market mechanism called the Advantage Medicare System works best. It then explains how an Electric Power CEO bonus system, based on the Advantage System, can create better, more socially maximizing outcomes for electric power markets than the current consumer sovereignty based systems the world is using now.
    • Energy Civilization: Civilization's Ultimate Energy Forecast

      Reynolds, Douglas (None, 2020-06-16)
      This treatise is an addendum to Reynolds’ (2011). It looks at the U.S. shale-oil production trend, and specifically at the Hubbert peak of that trend. Simmons (2005), Deffeyes (2001), Hubbert, (1962), Norgaard (1990) and Campbell (1997), among others show how there can be a peak in oil production. Reynolds (2002, 2009) explains the economic and cost theory for how and why the Hubbert Curve works, including how the information and depletion effects create such a curve. Nevertheless, Maugeri (2007), Adelman and Lynch (1997), and Lynch (2002) suggest that one should never curve fit an oil production trend, contrary to most economic disciplines where curve fitting using econometrics is the norm. Although, as of early 2020 the COVID-19 recession is greatly affecting petroleum markets. Nevertheless, the Hubbert supply trend is relevant. Also, Reynolds and Umekwe (2019) show that shale-gas and shale-oil can be compliments or substitutes in production. Based on that relationship, once the U.S. shale-oil peak occurs, it may be the world’s ultimate Hubbert peak with much smaller and lower Hubbert cycles thereafter. Worldwide petroleum institutions and strategies will also change. This treatise estimates a U.S. shale-oil Hubbert peak, scrutinizes the Hubbert related theories and explores oil price forecasts, taking into account medium run COVID-19 oil demand effects.
    • Evidence of a Monopsony: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia before 1974

      Reynolds, Douglas (2019)
      A monopsony is a single buyer for multiple suppliers where the buyer forces the suppliers to pay lower than normal prices. An example of a monopsony is a single employer hiring multiple workers and where the workers have no competitive choice about where else to work and so are forced to accept lower than normal wages offered by the monopsonist. The same situation can happen with oil. Here we show a situation from 1965 to 1974 where Saudi Arabia and OPEC were forced to accept monopsonistic oil prices given by the U.S. and the West, a situation that may actually violate the U.S. Sherman act of 1890.
    • Pod Cast US Shale-Oil Production Peak

      Reynolds, Douglas (2020-07-08)
      This paper, in the form of a Pod Cast, estimates a U.S. shale-oil production trend forecast and explores potential consequences of that trend on U.S. and World macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects. It explains the economics of the Hubbert curve including a literature review both pro and con. It explains the relationship of shale-oil and shale-gas. It falsifies various U.S. shale-oil trend hypotheses using logic and econometrics. It then presents oil price expectations based on an analyses of entropy-economic relationships, physical energy characteristics, new-institutional economic theories of OPEC, and OPEC+ game-theoretic plays. Covid-19, OPEC+ and macro-economic principles are analyzed for their potential market changing effects using Schwartzian futurology methodology. A comparison of the current global civilization to past civilizations is also carried out.
    • Restructuring Alaska: An Alaska Oil, Gas and Industry Economic Treatise

      Reynolds, Douglas (None, 2020-07-31)
      This paper in the form of a treatise is about how to improve Alaska’s overall socio-economic welfare. It explains economic issues in Alaska starting with the Trans-Alaska (oil) Pipeline System (TAPS) and how TAPS interacts with Alaska’s oil industry and induces risk averse reactions by the state. It also explains how an alternative oil pipeline can replace TAPS in order to reduce Alaska’s expensive oil tax credits. The treatise also explains some of the issues surrounding how the oil tax credits work or don’t work including such interactions as how oil exploration is carried out, why shale-oil will not easily be developed in Alaska and how the credits subsidize Anchorage’s area energy costs to the detriment of the state as a whole. Ideas for economic development of the state are given including building natural gas infrastructure and how to set up electric utilities to maximize their value to the state. An alternative for Anchorage energy needs is a simple natural gas pipeline to Fairbanks with rail connection to Anchorage and eventually the use of TAPS for natural gas. An incentivized management system for monopoly electric power utilities is explained which can provide better cheaper electric power and an incentivized management system for a state owned oil company is explained which can help Alaska negotiate with OPEC to Alaska’s advantage. Aspects of the university and education funding are explained.
    • Reynolds Curriculum Vita

      None, 2019-10-10
      Curriculum Vita
    • Reynolds Curriculum Vita 2020

      Reynolds, Douglas (none, 2020-07-07)