Home Again

Should be doing a post, but very tired.

Put in an offer, but there were three, and though we went above asking, we were rejected.

Which leaves us…..

Making an offer for “#2 house we’re considering.”

In probably an hour or so.

V. tired. Working on Bowl of Red.

But wanted you to know I’m okay.

105 thoughts on “Home Again

  1. Following your adventures reminds me why I would rather let Antifa burn me in my bed than ever gain actually face selling/buying another home…

      1. Ha! Yes.

        One time, my wife and I went to a “prosperity Gospel” church and during the sermon the pastor told us not to fear, for God has a plan for us. We just looked at each other wide-eyed (and we confirmed later that we were both thinking the same thing)–yeah, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to ENJOY his plan.

        1. I seem to recall a meme from a few years ago that showed a picture of Christians being fed to the lions in a Romam arena with the caption, “God loves you and has a wonderful plan for your life.”

          1. For some values of “wonderful”…

            But isn’t that what it takes to be a real Christian? To be able to look at your companions or spouse with shining eyes and, if that is God’s will and the cause is just, say “it is a good day to die”?

            1. Which reminds me of Daniel’s three friends—we don’t have to think about it, oh king; we will trust Him whether He chooses for us to live or die. That’s pretty hard core.

          2. He does have a wonderful plan for your life – but this ain’t the life with which He’s concerned.

            You’ve gotta remember His plan is for your real life; this is just the audition.

            It can be a very very rough try out, especially if you don’t understand the character you’re to play.

        2. There was a guy on one of the Wall Street Journal comment boards (before the Journal decided to “moderate,” them there was a regular community there) who was an angry, bitter atheist. Turned out he’d been converted by a “prosperity gospel,” church and when something bad happened to him he threw out the Baby with the bathwater.

  2. Fingers crossed.

    I finally found out that the first property I offered on sold for $132K on a list price of $99.9K (I bid $115). Yowch. Very happy I did the “cold call” method and lucked out on a better property overall. I’m going to go visit it tomorrow for the first time since closing.

  3. Fingers crossed for you all. Let me know the address to which I should send your copy of “My Dear Cousin” in gratitude for working up such a lovely cover for it.

    PS = Wee Jamie slept for a whole four and a half hours last night!

      1. About the same … but she is sitting for the state real exam on Monday, so the little fiend will be co-sleeping with me on Sunday evening!

        1. I remember the first couple of days after our son quit waking me up for early feedings – I suddenly realized I wasn’t exhausted for the first time in almost a year.

  4. Good luck. I am so not looking forward to going through this process. But, then, we don’t even have a landing spot yet, so as usual I’m kinda jumping the gun. I just want out of here sooooo bad.

  5. Buying is soooo hard. Wishing you luck. You have a lot more experience at this than we do. We’ve bought twice.

    First house had to hold for just under 4 years, after we were transferred out of the area. When your house is only worth $70k (a bit over what we paid), and houses in the $300k, in the same neighborhood, are selling for $100k, no one is looking at your older home (even if only slightly smaller and a lot bigger, not as steep, yard).

    Our current home we were biting our nails as we made the offer. More than ask, not a lot more, but more. Got it, then got stalled on the neighborhood, on the loan. We qualified. The house appraised correctly, but it appraised “too high” for the neighborhood. Could have swung it if we’d had the other house sold by then. The problem was this was late 88, and not much had been selling in this neighborhood over the last 10 years. Once we found a lender willing to make the loan, and it closed, I understand it was like breaking a log jam.

    Hasn’t done that again because of infill process and last remaining large properties have been built on. But now that those are built up, this area doesn’t turn over fast. We’ve been here 32 years. There have been exactly 6 houses (< 1/3) on our very long block, that have sold over that period since then (one house 5 times); 4 of those in the last 2 years because owners have been moved into either assisted living or died. There is one additional house where the grandchild is living there because grandma got moved into assisted living, but hasn't been put on the market.

    Again. Good Luck on finding what you need and what you want.

    1. Other reason for biting nails waiting for close? We were forced to move from our rental as it was sold out from under us (our offer was declined, which was too bad, because we offered more than they ultimately received). With 5 cats, and elderly dog, no way were we lucking out again on a rental. Plus, although we didn’t know as we were frantically looking, our son was also on the way.

  6. Just a thought–the path of least resistance is not always the best path, but I have not ever found the path of MAXIMUM resistance to be a good path either. Perhaps consider that Fortune/the market/God/the hidden order in the chaotic universe is giving you a hint that you’re barking up the wrong tree?

    Take that with a salt block–I don’t know what your requirements are.

    1. We have. I’m seriously considering simply not moving. Mind you, our son won’t be able to work here so he’ll probably go off as well. And well, I love our house, hate the neighborhood. And everything we liked to do in Denver is gone.
      Then again, you know maybe G-d wants me to be profoundly depressed and an hermit. HOW would I know otherwise.

      1. Well, you could also broaden the search. Ms. Hayes and I would both encourage you to consider Hill Country. Of course, that’s easy for me to say–I was called here, it wasn’t just random.

      2. I prefer to believe that being profoundly depressed and a hermit is G0d saying, “You’re not paying attention!”

        Which reminds me of this:

        There is this very pious Jew named Abraham who always dreamed of winning the lottery. Every Sabbath, he’d go to synagogue and pray: “G0d, I have been such a pious Jew all my life. What would be so bad if I won the lottery?”

        But the lottery would come and Abraham wouldn’t win. Week after week, Abraham would pray to win the lottery, but the lottery would come and Abraham wouldn’t win.

        Finally, one Sabbath, Abraham wails to the heavens: “G0d, I have been so pious for so long, what do I have to do to win the lottery?”

        And the heavens parted and the voice of G0d came down: “Abraham, meet me halfway! Buy a ticket!”

  7. Hum, I’ve a problem understanding why a rational person, in this day and age, would buy less than 40 acres (Been there, done that.) with a 150 yard clear perimeter view from the house (Am there, got that.). Having said that, hey, to each his own.

    1. look, I get you. I DO.
      I have absolutely no interest in 40 acres. Never did even when I was young. EVER.
      In the end the 40 acres would go to brambles and nothing, because I odn’t have the mind of a farmer.
      Clear line of sight? Only if I lived in a place where nothing grew. So.

        1. I’m trying to ignore the thistles, knowing full well that inaction means I’ll have several years (seeds can last 20 years here) of a bumper crop of weeds. Nasty, thorny thistle weeds.

          OTOH, I’m saving a bunch on the 2,4D that hasn’t been sprayed this year. Sigh.

          1. Far more useful than toxic waste, which I spray by the gallon, has been the brush mower. (Giant string trimmer, except with wheels and a lawn mower engine.) Shaving off the more-evil weeds at ground level discourages ’em a lot more forcefully, especially the thistles. Never really made progress against ’em until I was able to mow ’em down to the dirt. A couple close shaves, once after they really get going and have wasted a lot of their reserves, and another time before they can fully recover, and most of ’em =stay= discouraged.

            2.4-D alone doesn’t do it here, either. Needs to be the dicamba combo, and some spot-spraying with Roundup… all at triple strength.

            1. 2,4-D with a wetting agent (and a blue marker dye so I know what’s been hit already) does it if I can catch them at the rosette stage. 2020 was so, er, 2020ish, and I was paying more attention to building a garden shed that the fall spraying didn’t happen, and with the knee fiasco, I missed the spring sparaying. OTOH, the year has been so dry that the bumper crop of thistles I would have expected didn’t happen.

              I have to go over the Cascades next week for my delayed retina check. If conditions are acceptable afterward, I’ll put the spray rig together and see what I can do.

              1. When I worked for a spray pilot, the season always ended with three weeks of orders for 2,4-D and Banvil™. The season always started with two weeks (or more if conditions allowed) of orders for 2,4-D and Banvil™. Can you guess what one of the regional scourges was?

                1. What the heck is Banvil? [goes off, looks it up] Oh, brand-name dicamba.

                  Yeah, I’m guessin’ thistles of some sort were among your less-favored growths.

                  My sister’s place was overrun with Canadian thistles — they have deep rhizomes and with normal OTC treatments they just come back. But she found a Weed Guy who sprayed it with some Controlled Substance (I need to find out what!) and killed ’em off.

                  Whatever they’ve now got to control cheat grass sounded like a right PITA to use… so I sprayed it with Roundup while it was pretty much the only thing up, then shaved off any seed heads that appeared, and got rid of 99% of it. Still some edge patches to get next spring, but at least the back pasture is no longer like walking on a mat of needles.

                  1. Canada thistles seem to treat Roundup like fertilizer, from what I’ve heard. 2,4-D if applied at the rosette stage (no buds or blooms) *usually* works, but sometimes you need to come back and repeat in a few weeks. Really big plants (I had one 6′ tall and about that diameter.) are best handled from orbit.

                    I have a spot sprayer that I can carry with the tractor. Have the pieces to try a boom arrangement, but the necessary fiddling time to get it sorted out hasn’t shown.

              2. If it weren’t for nearby building I wish to remain unburnt, I’d be quite willing to use a torch to deal with problematic plants. As it is… well, if the neighbors didn’t see me painting the steps (with glow paint.. REALLY GOOD glow mind, not that zinc sulfide stuff) AND see me spraying the weeds on the drive…. well… the steps glow and the plants are dead.

              3. I’ve found our big bull thistles (not sure exactly what species) are most sensitive after they’ve sent up bud stalks or are just starting to bloom. Managed to kill off the neighbor’s tree-sized thistles by hitting ’em when they were flowering. But babies and rosette-stage are just about immune.

                You don’t want to dig ’em, cuz all that does is bring up dormant seeds that will then sprout.

                Unfortunate that the flowers are so beautiful, but the plants are so obnoxious. In Idaho I saw ’em grow into a solid block 18 feet tall. What came with this place… most I whacked down right off, but left one grow a while just because it was so… extreme, and I was curious how big it would get. The 2nd year rosette measured 6.5 FEET across, and when the stalk went up, it was 3 inches in diameter by the time it was two feet tall. At which point I decided that was enough scientific inquiry, and took an axe to it.

                Speaking of excessively dry, I suppose I should go stick a hose up the irrigation pipe that’s jammed up, and see if I can get it unstuck.

            2. Job at a church camp involved destroying an invasive plant (I swore I’d remember what it was). Thorny, produces clouds of seeds viable for 50 years, grows fast. We had teams of three: one with the weed-whacker, one with the backpack weed-killer sprayer and one with the pitchfork to pile up the brush. If you didn’t get the weed killer on the stump within 30 seconds it sealed off and regenerated. I had a lot of quality time with the pitchfork.

            3. brush mower

              I may need to rent one of those. I spent two hours with a chainsaw hacking a path through the undergrowth out at Tierra de Balzacq today in 80° weather, and I am wrecked. And I only got about 140 feet, well short of my goal. Something that would mow down the small stuff while I only use the chainsaw to cut out the snags and fallen logs sounds like a good idea.

              Also, I was taking video to get started on a house projects Youtube channel, and wow I’m a lot grayer and a lot fatter than I thought I was. I never see myself from those angles! o_O

      1. One of the requirements for me to buy property is trees, and not “3 scrawny little pines around a slightly-damper-than-desert swale” trees. I looked at a zillion godforsaken blasted boulder-strewn steppe properties in eastern WA on Redfin. No thanks.

          1. Oh, my. You want to be my neighbor. As long as you’re good with scrawny live oaks and cedar… I know an Odd place that’s up for sale.

          2. OK, never mind. I just looked, and they’re asking $1.3M. Just don’t tell the county assessor. I don’t want my taxes to go up.

            But my rough idea of looking in a band 25mi each side of US281 is still valid, I think.

        1. I’ve just this evening learned that “Tree Equity” is a thing.

          First person who gets into my face about “Tree Equity” will receive several choice words of advice as to where they can stick their trees.

          1. I’d never heard of this, but….
            This is the dumbest shit I’ve seen today.

            And actually, it looks like one of those NGOs that’s adept at sucking money from the public purse.

            The freakin’ Forest Service =gives away= seedlings every spring; anyone who wants ’em and lives where they’ll survive is welcome to as many as they can use. (I’ve asked.) Not to mention a lot of suburban shade trees are like weeds; they throw seeds by the millions, and will grow anywhere they’re not actively discouraged. (If I didn’t mow and spray ’em, my yard would be a solid mat of ash seedlings. In a warm climate, stick lemon seeds in the ground and stand back.)

            As to “urban” — what part of “sidewalk” did they not understand??

            1. Some activists got all exited about planting trees all over Detroit. The locals were . . . Not Happy. Not because of the “trees = lynching” garbage, bit 1) they weren’t asked if they wanted trees, 2) trees meant higher taxes and gentrification, and 3) they’d be stuck with the costs of maintaining the trees. Because the city fined the people who lived closest to trees that the city had to prune or remove if the “owner” didn’t.

            2. Maples for us. We have two “volunteer” Maples in the backyard (also known as weeks that were not pulled). Even the non-native, smaller maples, that we’ve planted, try to get in the act every year. Had a Douglas Fir “volunteer” just off the deck, until it got too big for where it was at. Also a cottonwood (also gone, too close to fence), Oak, not a native one (2017 ice storm took this one out).

              Luckily the trees that don’t pull this are the Giant Sequoias, Redwoods, and the Jack Pines. Put out a lot of cones, but the cones need fire to tiger the seeds. Not even the squirrels dropping the cones on pavement (and cars), so they can get to the seeds, cause the seeds to germinate.

              Used to hand out the seedlings about May to all grade school kids. One out of 37 Douglas Fir seedlings survived their plantings (3 of us for a collective 17 years of local grade school, 2 seedlings each year). Unfortunately the tree had to be removed when it got too big for the spot it was planted in.

              1. Of course the volunteers never grow where you WANT the durn things… I’ve got a 2nd year cottonwood in the garden that I forgot to move while it was dormant, but I want one for out behind, so … hopefully I’ll remember to move it once it shuts down for the winter.

                And finally got an ash seedling within a couple feet of where I want it… now if something would take root in the hot-dry spot out front that I want to shade… can’t be anything with invasive roots there, tho.

                My sister tried seed-starting Doug fir but had zero luck with ’em, even tho they’re native.

                I’ve got a bagful of seeds from treeseeds.com to try out — they’re very cheap so whatever caught my fancy and would scrape by in Zone 4.5 or colder.

                1. I always get volunteer junipers next to a Ponderosa pine. The birds will eat the berries, but I never quite figured out why the seedlings are so close to the Pondo trunks. Not sure I want to research the bathroom habits of berry eaters. 🙂

                  We have some poplar-ish trees; might be cottonwoods or aspen. They’ll put out suckers every year and have an impressive root system. A couple hundred feet higher in elevation, there’s a grove of aspen in the Nat’l Forest. It’s impressive when they all turn colors at once; I gather they are effectively one plant. We’ll get seeds most years, but they don’t germinate on our property, or else the seedlings are tasty.

      2. Brambles are better than barbed wire for keeping varmints out of your yard. Cheaper too. If you get the right kind they have berries. Bramble hedges are almost as good as a wall.

        Farming 40 acres? Nobody does that. You rent the field to Farmer John down the road and he grows soy on it. He pays you beans. ~:D

        As to the rest of it, you get a big lawn mower. There’s your clear sight lines. Cut it for a couple hours once a week, it’ll give your brain a chance to think up new characters and story lines.

        Three acres on a side road to nowhere, that’s Chez Phantom. Best thing I ever did. Cities suck, suburbs suck. The countryside is it.

        But make damn sure all the water and sewer stuff is up to date and working. You do not want to be renovating the septic tanks and septic field of your new purchase. That’s expensive.

  8. The housing market really sucks for buyers right now. If I had it to do over, I’d have bought at least two ot three years ago.

      1. Keep in mind that supply is artificially low right now which is driving prices up. Once supply increases, prices are going to drop.

        1. I don’t think you have the right picture. Sorry, out here in flyoverland, it’s people escaping the big cities to the next smaller, in a crazy save qui peut.

          1. Keep in mind that all of the houses that would be part of the supply available due to foreclosures is not right now.

            1. Shrug. That’s a MINIMAL number, and frankly even in a hungry market, at least here tend to sit unbought. Because having bought a shot sale, I know what a mess that is. And we abandoned a foreclosure, frankly, mid-process.

              1. Unfortunately this is coming. The usual suspects are barking about the “right to home ownership” for those who can’t afford it; again. You know, what crashed everything in 2008..

                1. And I’m wondering how the hell normal people are paying the multi-million dollar mortgages, and when those are going to crash. Tho I suppose the rental-investment market has plans for that.

                  1. Locally the housing market isn’t multi-millions, but it is OMG up from 32 years ago. We paid $78k on an $75k ask, Fall ’88. Out of curiosity had the listing agent on a house down the street give a guesstimate listing price; **$435k. House down the street, list $345k, closed $399k. The original owners paid, maybe **$45k in ’74 (estate sale). Both houses are what would be considered “dated” by today’s “preferences”; solid, but dated. I’d say the extra “boost” offered on the house down the street over offering is because, while we are in the Urban Growth area, not city, yet. Their property taxes mirror ours of $2k/year. ***Property taxes don’t adjust to market value when homes sell in Oregon Same house in the city, same school district, is $4k+. (The city has been trying to incorporate this area since before my parents moved to this area when I was 7 … I’m almost 65! They keep getting their hands slapped. Last couple of attempts, hard slapped. Any new build, including infill the split off property becomes city, that is allowed.)

                    OTOH that doesn’t really matter. In our area the question is how can a two income household at minimum wage (say even $30/hour) and paying daycare (likely) afford housing?

                    Then there is us. Sure we can sell for close to $500k, but we’re going to end up buying or building at $500k and our taxes are going to be way, way, higher, if we move to Veneta or Junction City (also Lane County). “Property Taxes are 2% all in.” (County, City, School District, Fire Districts, etc.) Response … “um, I can do the math in my head … No thanks.” If we move to say Monroe, property taxes (or were) lower … Different county.

                    * Based off what neighbors nearer to us have told us they bought for in the same period.
                    ** More square footage curtsy of the prior owners, otherwise original base smaller than the comparable down the street, but not by much.
                    ***HRM Brown has tried to EO that out. Not even the legislative can change that, both the original limit and the “can’t jump because sold” laws were ballot initiatives, has to be another initiative to change, I think. Actually 3 initiatives involved (Oregon’s ****”only one topic” on a ballot rule): 1) Roll back to 1990 value. 2) No more than 3% taxable value raise per year (which is how our taxes can go up, now, in down, market years). 3) Can not adjust to market value when home sells. What is amazing is all 3 passed. ..
                    **** Or why there will never be a “Sales Tax Add” and “Repeal Income Tax” initiative because that is TWO items and should there be two initiatives the first will fail, second will pass 🙂 at least referred by the legislative … I guess there could be two citizen ones (VBG 🙂 ).

    1. “When’s the best time to buy?”
      “18 months ago.”
      “I didn’t even say what I was thinking of buying.”
      “Doesn’t matter. Answer is always the same, unless it’s even worse.”

      1. Cognate to Downeaster “if I wanted to go there, I wouldn’t start from here”.

  9. Sorry to hear things didn’t work out. Sounds like our black dogs have been barking similar things lately, too. The difficulty of buying, especially in light of investment companies getting into the rental business, with four cats and that whole feeling that whatever happens is just going to blow up in my face for the universe’s amusement? Been there all week and I’m not even close to snapping out of it. Still, me and the kitties hope it goes better for you.

      1. WOO HOO!! Congratulations! And may title, escrow, and closing be smooth and complication-free!

      2. Accepted offer, nice!

        Check the sewer line. I’ve had to do THREE sewer lines lately. Definitely check the sewer. Worth it to spend $300 on the man with the camera. Your basement will thank you.

        1. THIS. Especially if the houses in the neighborhood are in the 40-50 year old range.

              1. My house came with cast iron sewer pipes. I found an inspection tag inside the bathroom wall marked January 1953. The main pipe was buried less than a foot deep, too. One section I pulled out was split open from end to end down one side by rust.

                I remodeled the #1 bathroom — the bathtub and toilet flange were rusted out, the bathroom and kitchen sinks both drained through a 4-way double-sanitary fitting into a pipe plugged almost solid with rust that backed up at least once a month.

                I ran a new 4″ ABS pipe about 2 feet down, and connected everything except the #2 bathroom to it. I left a capped end about a foot beyond the #2 bathroom wall so that can be hooked in later. Had to keep the 2″ cast iron laundry drain, but at least it’s in good shape.

                1. Our house is on a slab, with the “$#!! pipes laid in the slab. Aside from the overhead pipes for the first-generation solar water heating system. (That’s gone, thankfully). But having pipes embedded in concrete is a royal pain.

                  1. My condominium had pipes in the slab, and a recirculator pump at the water heater so folks at the far end of the building didn’t have to wait 5 minutes for hot water. My kitchen floor was always very warm, like 105°. Nice in the winter, not so nice in the summer.

                    Of course, when the slab settled (as slabs do) the embedded pipes started leaking. They had to re-run all the plumbing through the attics of all the buildings. Took weeks.

                    My house is on a slab, too. I made a drill out of a section of 4″ steel pipe and bored an 18 foot long hole under the house to avoid having to jackhammer and dig a trench through the living room.

      3. Here’s hoping! May the closing and move be smooth!

        (The morning update on our fire is 47.5K acres. The map should be out late morning, but I’m hoping it went in a “safe” direction. Lots of retardant drops last evening from the large (737-sized) air tankers, plus the DC-10 made an appearance. TPTB are treating this fire seriously, but Mr. Wildfire has most of the cards right now.)

        1. Urrk! That acreage was last night’s. This morning, it’s now pushing 77K acres. No map yet, so I don’t know if any of the subdivisions are more at risk than yesterday, but this beast is bad.

        2. What is the fire complex name?

          N. Umpqua has another fire, called the Jack Fire … There was a level 3 evacuation issued. Been decades but fire will impact the 3 campgrounds I remember as a child.

          Prayers you aren’t affected.

          1. It’s the Bootleg fire. They now think it might have been a delayed lightning start–smoldeing in duff until the time was “right”. Tuesday, when it started, we had an impressive pyro-cumulus cloud. Yesterday, we had a line of them.

            Jack seems to be a nasty fire; not huge in acreage, but lots of houses at risk.

            1. The B & B Complex Fire did the lightening smolder, and blow up 5 days later … remembered because the night the dry lightening storm went through we were snuggled in tents at a lake north side of Hwy 126 (about 20 miles north), with one other adult and 10 scouts and ventures. Finished at Big Lake Saturday, pulled out Sunday. Got up to Monday with the report of the fire, already a huge complex. Definitely a “what the heck” moment. Took a bit before the fire jumped the highway from South to North, but still …

              Praying the Bootleg fire stays away from you and your neighbors, that it only takes wilderness, or open range land.

            2. Ugh. Go burn somewhere else, them houses ain’t none o’ your business!

              We had so much smoke here a couple nights ago that I had to wear a wet mask to do chores… good use for those retired face diapers. (They’re also nice for winter nose-warmers when you don’t really need the full-frontal face covering.)

            3. A small community even more remote than ours has been hit, and another is probably going to get burned over. Apparently there’s a high voltage powerline (seems to be the 500kV Pacific Intertie) that’s under threat. AFAIK, the regional HV line (115kV or so) seems to be safe, so far. OTOH, if the 500kV line goes down, SoCal is in deep(er) shit.

              From this morning’s map, we’re 8 miles upwind* of the fire, but this guy is more interested in dry fuels and useful topography. I think we’re safe, so far. Lots of Nat’l Forest land is getting hit, but it promises to be nervewracking for a week or three.**

              (*) Night and morning winds are almost nonexistent, so the fire does what it wants at that point.

              (**) My streak of inconvenient medical appointments continues. Monday-Tuesday I get some heart monitoring done, along with standard shopping. Thursday, I have to go to Medford for my long-delayed-can’t-put-it-off-any-more retina check. Won’t get back until Saturday afternoon. Whee. So in the free days, pretty much early in the morning when temps aren’t outrageous, I get to clean up pine needles. At least the neighbors who are spending the weekend on the coast (lucky–they can breathe!) are back Monday.

              1. Oh, not a complex, either. Single source, first reported as 100 acres, but it’s grown. A lot. On track to be the the county’s worst wildfire since records have been kept. OTOH, ain’t nuthin’ compared to Mount Mazama blowing up.

              2. “OTOH, if the 500kV line goes down, SoCal is in deep(er) shit.”

                Yep. ^^This^^ has been in the news … little about the fire hitting the local communities, plenty about it threatening the power lines that feed CA …

  10. Yesterday, by happenstance, I came across a news story about Conservative Move ( https://conservativemove.com ), a firm that helps people interested in relocating to conservative areas of the United States “sell your home, organize the move, and find a home in a community where you feel safe, valued, and at home.”

    Hope this helps!

    1. The International Lord Of Hate has 3 must-see posts on the 2020 election, starting with <a href="https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11/05/the-2020-election-fuckery-is-afoot/&quot; Fuckery is afoot.

      There’s a follow-up on November 9 2020, and on November 12 “I Asked One Simple Question To People Who Work With Fraud”

      As Larry puts it at one point: there’s statistically improbable, and then there’s ‘violates the fundamental principles of the universe’.

    2. Yeah, he is not scratching the surface of it.

      Possibly, his talk of synthesizing boomer opinions means that he specifically is talking to people who don’t have any recent experience in statistics, electronics hardware, or programming.

      The whole claim of a ‘secure electronic voting machine’ is itself risible in its obvious falsehood, once a) people raise the possibility of intervention in elections by foreign government, as was raised in 2016 b) questions are raised about the transparently authentic chain of custody for the equipment. If we can seriously wonder about Russian hacking in 2016, then we can consider PRC supplied counterfeit electronics hardware with a backdoor in 2020. We can only exclude the hardware scenario if we can trace chain of custody, with transparent complete inspection of the hardware by advocates for both candidates. Simple mechanical voting machines can possibly be inspected and verified as secure. Inspection and verification for a complex electronic machine is much more difficult.

      When the answer to “Yeah, we want to take a proper look at those things” is “No. You must trust us. We will also use the same voting machines in the next election.”…

      One guy tried the argument that was more or less “if a professor says that an electronic voting system is secure, you must trust them”. First, professors of electrical engineering do not usually have the political or legal perspective to notice the two key differences here from the usual theory of secure electronic devices. Secondly, look at how much the engineering faculty have been shutting up for having the critical theorist stuff imposed on them. The theory of mathematics has one approach to truth of statements, and critical theory has another, entirely incompatible with mathematics. So, meek acceptance of the critical race theory notion that ‘mathematics is white supremacist’ is evidence that engineering faculty will not blow the whistle to raise awareness of untrue statements. (Okay, CRT is a more recent ‘talked about topic’, but there were other reasons known then not to trust professors as agents in understanding voting machines.)

      I do not subscribe to the ‘violates the fundamental principles of the universe’ formulation of the explanation regarding numerical irregularities.

      I look at it as a hypothesis test, with a bunch of experiments. Our null hypothesis is ‘the election was fair and honest’, with alternate hypotheses of ‘fraudulent, but without preference’, ‘unfair but honest’, and ‘unfair and dishonest’. Fundamentally, for a fair honest election we would predict that even with a strong preference for one candidate, for a large enough number of ballots, some will be against that candidate. Furthermore, these processes should not be sorting ballots to separate out Biden votes from Trump votes. So, only for very small numbers will we ever expect to see a pure selection of ballots/votes in an honest, fair, and transparent election. Okay, the precise dividing line depends on statistical assumptions, etc.

      So, each incident of hearsay of a ballot counting system summing a ‘large’ set of ballots that are all for Biden is an experimental result that rejects the ‘fair honest election’ hypothesis and ‘proves’ the ‘unfair dishonest election’ hypothesis.

      If you want to support the claim that the election was honest and fair, you need to look at the hearsay allegations, and show that the allegations are not true, and do so in a verifiable and accountable way. Such as by court trial, by admitting the allegations as evidence, and admitting other evidence against the allegations, and getting it all down on formal official record. Refusals by courts to do so was interesting.

      After the January 12th letter by heads of law schools, the refusal by courts to do so was damning of the courts. That letter created the appearance that the lawyers could successfully conspire to deny a political faction representation in all formal courts. They actually may in fact not be able to so conspire, but the appearance, as well as the lack of repercussions on the letter signatories, is quite concerning. The letter claimed that the facts did not support the allegations of electoral fraud, and that the election was in fact fair and honest. It is interesting that a bunch of administrative bureaucrat law faculty could actually know this last item, unless they have a great deal of statistical and electrical design knowledge that I am unaware of.

      The insult added to that letter’s injury is the claim of democracy being harmed on January 6th. The only legitimate grounds for objecting to January 6th from a Democrat perspective is republican. A large enough group bringing congress to justice would be the very essence of democracy. And even for a republican perspective, the Executive power unambiguously rested with Donald Trump, so he would have been justified in many responses to the violent criminality of Democrats in congress.

      Now, all of these people so acting could be explained by institutional blindness and ‘deep state’/’cultural elite’ antipathy towards Trump. It looks a lot like what could be a conspiracy.

      Possibly such a conspiracy could be organized by domestic influence.

      Issue with that is explaining both the ‘why now’, /and/ the specific personalities holding positions of nominal power. If this is a domestic operation, whoever is driving it is a stupidly dangerous lunatic. Which is one reason why people are suspecting foreign influence in general, and the PRC in particular.

      Fundamentally, this looks an awful lot like communists in the process of preparing mass murder.

          1. Looks like it, but a bit more detailed on methods and processes.

            Forex, the CRT stuff with the military may be the same sort of thing that pimps do to a freshly kidnapped girl. Disorient someone as part of breaking their will to resist.

        1. What he has seriously wrong, what none of you seems capable of taking into account:
          a) This has never been TRIED at a time the population is CONTRACTING.
          b) This has never been tried when the majority of the population is AGAINST them (they usually have a vast go-along mass)
          c) This has never been tried ina country that’s prosperous until they show up.
          d) This has never been tried in a country where the “peasants” are this well armed.
          e) This has never been tried in the country THAT FEEDS THE WORLD.
          f) This has never been tried with a “Leadership” so incompetent they can’t pour piss out of a boot with the instructions written on the heel.

          Drily: Other than that, you are right. It’s exactly the same.
          Look, I’m not saying they don’t want to do this. I want to write thirty books this afternoon, too.
          I think the chance of their ACHIEVING it is about the same.

          1. “This has never been tried in the country THAT FEEDS THE WORLD.”

            I’m waiting for the United States collectively to go “USA First”, not regards to jobs or product, but food on our tables. I think we’re too dang close. Mexico may say “but wait, look at all this that we put on your table!” Well, yes. But don’t know about anyone else but I can live without Seedless Grapes, or Strawberries, etc., out of season. Sure, I’ll miss the Avocados … Or maybe I can put up raised beds in my own small greenhouse … Okay, maybe not with my black thumb, but I’m willing to try.

            1. “I’m waiting for the United States collectively to go “USA First”, ”

              And what makes you think that Xiden will allow that? He will certainly try to keep his paymasters supplied. How will anyone stop him? Harsh language?

              1. If we have a consensus, we can implement it without first describing here the methods of implementation.

                Fundamentally, I have a deep disagreement with Daryl Cooper, in that his intended audience seems to be left. I think the cheating left are few enough that they can simply be killed off at the level of voters, without bothering with persuading them.

                You don’t need to count coup on us for being so slow to realize the necessities you have seen for twenty years. No matter how much coup you can count against us, it won’t get things fixed faster, and it probably will not speed up the preference cascade.

          2. I hadn’t read the ‘metallic man’ posts, just skimmed the first one.

            I definitely am not up to thinking things through on the want to do versus can do level.

            I think I usually concur on there being things that they simply cannot manage to do.

            Last sentence in my 1:03 pm post was mainly directed at the notion of ‘so what if fraud influenced the election, it is safe to trust Biden, and to wait for 2022/2024’.

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