Hostage to Fortune

The month is half gone and the Central England Temperature is currently on track to set a new record for the hottest January since 1659.

The forecast isn’t looking too cold either.

Who would have thought, eh?

Age Truth

As I was walking into town this morning, past the frosty grass, and the carnival of ice destruction at Inverleith Pond, I came to wondering about my age, the passage of time, the inevitability of death, the heat-death of the universe and how to tell truthfully my age to an appropriate level of precision, if asked.

It is not a lie that I am in my 30s, but it is not the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. I’m more accurately in my late-30s, but, even then, that contains something of a deception.

I’m really in my late-late-30s.

I then realised that recently I moved from being in my early-late-late-30s to being in my mid-late-late-30s. This happened so recently that I’m in my early-early-early-mid-late-late-30s. Though now that I’m doing this I feel it necessary to be as precise as possible (without asking my mother what time of day I was born).

I’m in my late-early-early-early-mid-late-late-30s.

While that is much more accurate than saying I’m in my late-30s, it’s interesting that all those “early”‘s in there make it sound so much less old than it should do. So that’s misleading too. Interesting.


The old people are coming

I heard the news recently that the 77-year old Michael Bloomberg was joining the 77-year old Joe Biden, the 78-year old Bernie Sanders and the 70-year old Elizabeth Warren in the contest to decide who will be the Democratic nominee in the Presidential election to defeat the incumbent, 74-year old Donald Trump, and I wondered where all the American politicians in their 50s and 60s had disappeared, that none of them are now part of this process?

Then I was distracted from answering this question by the realisation that, by the end of this year, everyone in their 50s and 60s will have been born in the 1950s and 1960s and that seems like an incredibly unusual occurrence. So, someone who was born in 1950, would this year be turning 69, and anyone who is this year turning 50 will have been born in 1969. Isn’t that quite the thing?

Meanwhile, in Britain, a recent ICM opinion poll for the impending general election puts Labour level with the Tories on 38% among those working full-time, ahead by 41%-35% for part-time workers, 42%-30% for those not working (but of working age), and 72%-7% for students, but 59%-15% behind for those retired (or 64%-12% for those aged 65+).

Overall that leaves Labour behind by 34%-41% and the oldies seem likely to get their way. It’s an incredible divide between the generations, and no good can come of it. This seems, as far as I can tell, to be a relatively recent phenomenon. We can calculate how much more strongly people aged 65+ support the Tories by comparing support in the 65+ age group to the overall figures. For the ICM poll cited above the Tory lead is 52pp in the 65+ age group, and 7pp overall, so they are 45pp stronger with oldies than on average. I can do the same with past general elections using Ipsos-MORI post-election “How Britain Voted” polls, and this produces the following figures.

General Election Year Oldie Bias To Vote Tory
1987 +3
1992 +6
1997 +8
2001 +10
2005 +9
2010 +6
2015 +17
2016* +24
2017 +33
2019 +45**

* This figure is for the Brexit Referendum where I’ve treated Leave as being Tory and Remain being Labour, which seems reasonable in terms of the overall pattern.
** This is taken from the ICM poll cited above, and may change before election day.


From datawrapper

There’s a silly little quote that goes around, that seems to be incorrectly attributed to any number of people, that is something along the lines of, “If a person is not a socialist at age 20 then they have no heart; if they are still a socialist at 40 then they have no head,” which might make one expect the dramatic divide we see in the later figures, but what I find most striking is how modest the divide was in the earlier years – it was only +6 in 2010.

Something very dramatic has happened to produce this divide. I’m tempted to attribute it to the way in which austerity was implemented in Britain. With the exception of the cuts to social care, the older generation were generally protected. Wages were held down, benefits were cut, but pension increases were guaranteed and house prices supported.

Perhaps there is something more psychological at play, as we become accustomed to a time when people are more pessimistic about the future, the young may be more inclined to more radical changes, and the old may be more inclined to hold on to what they have, even if that is little.

It seems like something important that is worth understanding. And then, hopefully, changing.

How Britain Voted sources:
2016 (YouGov in this case)

Jammy Devils

Jammy Devils, from Nanny Ogg’s cookbook are delicious. They’re a bit like jam tarts, but there’s less jam and the pastry case is much more substantial, more biscuity, slightly cakey and has jam rippled through it.

I really like jam, so I should really like jam tarts, but I much prefer jammy devils. I think it’s because jam tarts are not far removed from simply eating jam direct from the jar, but eating jam from the jar is so much less trouble. There’s a bit more to jammy devils that differentiates them from the direct method of jam-eating.

I was feeling too tired to bake this afternoon, but D reminded me of my intention to do so and then I felt obligated to follow through. I’m sure I will feel glad of doing so in due course, but right now my feet hurt.

They might look a little burnt, but they are delicious.

Sea-Ice Trends

It can be really easy to be distracted by the noise in a set of data. A great set of charts for looking at the day-to-day changes in the Arctic Sea-Ice is maintained by Neven, and I often find myself checking this on a daily basis. Fun as it is to follow the weather-driven ups and downs of the sea-ice, I decided that I wanted to create a chart that would remind me of the bigger picture: the inexorable, global-warming driven decline in sea-ice.


The Shipping Forecast


And then she says this.




A “reader” writes:



Cake or Death 6: Chocolate Almond Macaroons vs Death by Euphoria



The Cake





Everyone preferred my way.

The Death

Death by Euphoria


I found this chapter genuinely scary.


Cake or Death – what is your choice?

Cake or Death 5: Candidate Number Two vs Terrorism



The Cake


Candidate Number Two, attempting to recreate my mother’s carrot cake.



225g butter creamed with
half as much sugar to which add
2 beaten eggs
225g grated carrot
225g wholemeal flour
1 tsp ground cinnamon
half tsp ground nutmeg



The Death





Cake or Death – what is your choice?




The Cake


St Clements Meringue Pie, from Perfect Cooking by Marguerite Patten.




The Death

Mutually Assured Destruction





Cake or Death – what is your* choice?
