• Todd Yakoubian

33° and Rain

That seems to be the winter motto! There is some concern Tuesday for freezing rain and sleet, especially across northern Arkansas and in the higher elevations. Just last week, I remember telling Barry the set up looks classic for icy weather, but the surface temperatures should be too warm.

I have noticed the NAM and other models colder and colder with each run so there is some concern it could start as light freezing rain a bit further south.

At this point, I think the worst case scenario for the Channel 7 viewing area is a little ice in trees, then a transition to a very cold rainfall.

Rainfall could become heavy at times, then another system arrives later in the week. Flooding could become an issue, especially across eastern Arkansas. River levels will also be on the rise and that's a story we'll be following for you.

Surface low in the western Gulf with moisture overrunning the cold air at the surface. The NAM is the coldest of all the models Tuesday morning with a chance it could begin as a little light freezing rain/sleet, especially in the higher elevations west and north of the metro. See the blue dashed line (540) north of Arkansas. That's a good indicator of the rain/snow line. Since that's displaced away from the state, thermal profiles will favor ice. Once again, if it does start as ice, it will change to a cold rain rather quickly. However, the higher elevations of northern Arkansas could have a little more to deal with Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, it's a cold and miserable rain, but northern Arkansas could have freezing rain/sleet with temperatures near 32. This may meet winter weather advisory criteria there as it has many times this winter.

The Weather Prediction Center has a decent chance for at least .01'' of freezing rain northern Arkansas. Further south, those chances are low.

The bigger story will be the potential for flooding rain from the Delta into the Tennessee Valley over the next 7 days. Flash flood watches will likely be required.

In summary, this is something to watch Tuesday as the models show very little warming. However, we should be 33° or warmer with a cold rain by Tuesday afternoon. Shocking, eh? #sarcasm.

Northern Arkansas could see a winter weather advisory for freezing rain and sleet just like the past 8 or 9 times this winter.

The bigger weather story will be the potential for flash flooding and river flooding as mentioned above.

If anything changes, we'll let you know.

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