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Testing the Inflation Convergence Among the Original ASEAN Members

This paper examines the inflation linkages in the original ASEAN member countries (ASEAN-5) using timevarying parameters, common trends and tests for weak exogeneity from January 1990 to June 2012. The results using the full sample period indicate no evidence of Singaporean leadership despite increased financial and goods market integration among the ASEAN-5 in recent years. The results reveal evidence of partial convergence in the sub-period when inflation rates are generally stable. The study has two implications. First, the results appear to be consistent with the other studies that despite the obvious financial and goods market integration, ASEAN-5 are not ready to adopt the single currency because they are prioritizing the stability of their domestic currency, as well as, setting inflation targeting to avoid fluctuating price level. These countries also fear losing the monetary flexibility that is associated with the issue of political sovereignty. Second, the costs of monetary integration within its members are high, resulting in the reluctance of economic leaders to have a common institution handling and controlling Asia.