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UTILISING FORECASTING TIME SERIES DATA AND FLEXIBILITY SERVICES TO MANAGE DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS

The energy system is changing with new types of loads and generation being adopted along with increasingly electricity generation directly connected to distribution networks. This results in greater need to have a better visibility of the network, forecast the energy profiles and actively manage the energy flows at distribution level. In addition to those challenges, the energy industry is moving towards a low carbon system forecasting increased energy needs. This paper presents a methodology to procure flexibility services rather than traditional network reinforcement in order to deal with those changes in a timely and efficient manner. The optimisation algorithm integrates demand forecasting, flexibility service providers and system network models to identify potential network constraints. Flexibility services are utilised to reduce or resolve the identified network constraints and are being selected based on a merit order system. A total score is calculated for each service considering multiple input parameters ensuring a transparent and fair approach. Results are presented from the build and testing phases of the project, demonstrating the overall process and indicate the potential benefit of developing an automated tool for managing distribution networks efficiently.