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Comment on "Coral Reef Death During the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole Linked to Indonesian Wildfires"

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) caused anomalous upwelling, low sea surface temperatures , and low sea surface heights along the northeastern Indian Ocean in 1997 (Fig. 1). Abram et al. (1) suggested that coral mortality occurred along a 400-km stretch of Indonesian coastline (Mentawai Islands) because of the synergistic effects of the 1997 IOD-induced upwelling and atmospheric fallout from the Indonesian wildfires. Here, I show that coral mortality occurred on the coral reefs of Bali—a considerable distance from the wildfire smoke plume—primarily as a consequence of the IOD upwelling. Abram et al. (1) examined Porites corals for chemical signals, but reported circum-stantial evidence from local reports that all coral species—not just those in shallow water— died: " In late 1997, near the peak of the IOD, close to 100% of the coral and fish in the Mentawai reef ecosystem were killed " (1). Their empirical evidence stems from the death of 48 Porites coral colonies and the enhanced geochemical traces within the skeletons just prior to their death. Abram et al. argued that while the IOD upwelled nitrogen-and phosphorous-enriched waters, which increased surface productivity, the 1997 IOD was not unusual when compared with pa-leoupwelling events during the past 7000 years (traceable as geochemical anomalies in coral ␦ 18 O and skeletal strontium/calcium ratios). They suggest that while the enhanced nutrients clearly stem from the upwelling event, the primary productivity rates of 1.6 g of C m –2 day –1 (from a derived chlorophyll a concentration of 5 mg m –3) could not be sustained by upwelled or aeolian iron (Fe) because the average deposition in the area amounts to only 3 ␮g m –2 day –1 (2)—and thus, additional Fe may have stemmed from the wildfires. They conclude that a synergy between the IOD and the wildfires caused exceptionally high concentrations of phyto-plankton in the water that led to reef death by asphyxiation. However, in figure 1 in (2), Gao et al. showed that this part of Indonesia receives approximately 20 mg m –2 month –1 , or 0.66 mg m –2 day –1 , of atmospheric depo-sition of Fe from September to October. Given a high correspondence between atmospheric mineral composition and downward flux through the water column, and a conservative estimate that 25% of the Fe was dissolved and bioavailable (3), 165 ␮g m –2 day –1 of Fe should have been readily available in the water column. …