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A new early warning method and its applications of the complex systems for real estate market

A new early warning method of the complex systems for real estate market is proposed in this paper. First, principle component analysis method is adopted, and 8 important indexes are screened from a great number of indices. Second, these 8 important indices are divided into 3 kinds which are called as antecedent, synchronous and delayed with the time-difference correlation analysis method. Third, the real estate market's situations are classified into 5 types with the fuzzy pattern recognition method. On the foundation, degree of Euclid closeness is used to counter which type the annual real estate market belongs to, so that the administrators can adjust their macro control policies timely, and avoid the crisis of real estate industry. Finally, the method proposed here is applied to a real estate market system in a China city and the satisfying results are obtained.