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Testing Scenarios to Achieve Workplace Sustainability Goals Using Backcasting and Agent-Based Modeling

Pro-environmental behaviors have been analyzed in the home, with little attention to other important contexts of everyday life, such as the workplace. The research reported here explored three categories of pro-environmental behavior (consumption of materials and energy, waste generation, and work-related commuting) in a public large-scale organization in Spain, with the aim of identifying the most effective policy options for a sustainable organization. Agent-based modeling was used to design a virtual simulation of the organization. Psychologically informed profiles of employees were defined using data gathered through a questionnaire, measuring knowledge, motivations, and ability. Future scenarios were developed using a participatory backcasting scenario development methodology, and policy tracks were derived. Dynamic simulations indicated that, to be effective, organizational policy should strengthen worker participation and autonomy, be sustained over time, and should combine different measures of medium intensity for behavior change, instead of isolated policies of high intensity.