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Time lag between deformation and seismicity along monogenetic volcanic unrest periods: The case of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

Between 2011 and 2014 there were at least seven episodes of magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island, but only the first one led to a submarine eruption in 2011–2012. In order to study the relationship between GPS deformation and seismicity during these episodes, we compare the temporal evolution of the deformation with the cumulative seismic energy released. In some of the episodes both deformation and seismicity evolve in a very similar way, but in others a time lag appears between them, in which the deformation precedes the seismicity. Furthermore, a linear correlation between decimal logarithm of intruded magma volume and decimal logarithm of total seismic energy released along the different episodes has been observed. Therefore, if a future magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island follows this behavior with a proper time lag, we could have an a priori estimate on the order of magnitude the seismic energy released would reach.