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Drone Strikes in Pakistan: Reasons to Assess Civilian Casualties

Abstract : The U.S. government has described its drone campaign in Pakistan and elsewhere as causing minimal civilian casualties. However, available data-open source data on Pakistan drone strikes, as well as data on air operations in Mghanistan, including drone operations-points to higher casualty numbers than suggested in official statements. Besides their importance to U.S. ethical principles regarding the conduct of war, civilian casualties from U.S. operations also affect national security, fueling threats to the U.S. while simultaneously limiting freedom of action and complicating relations with other nations. One possible reason for this discrepancy between U.S. government statements and other reports is that civilian casualties from air strikes can be difficult to recognize when they occur. For example, recognition- and thus acknowledgement-of civilian casualties was a challenge in U.S. operations in Mghanistan, and is likely to be even more difficult for operations without a ground force in remote locations such as western Pakistan. This paper explains why official U.S. estimates for civilian casualties caused by drone strikes in Pakistan could reasonably be too low. Factors include an irregular enemy, the challenge of misidentifications, the tendency of air-based assessments to produce inaccurate assessments of resultant harm, and processes that assign civilian status to casualties more narrowly than in applicable international law.