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Impact of multitasking and merge bias on procurement of complex equipment

We describe how multitasking and merge bias may impact the procurement time of complex equipment, such as power distribution equipment used in capital projects. The time required to procure this type of product is often based on past experience and ad hoc assumptions, without explicit consideration for the contributing factors. Capital projects are becoming increasingly complex, requiring more experts to contribute knowledge. By relying on 'received traditions,' procurement times are often underestimated thereby creating numerous problems for the project participants downstream in the supply chain. The presented model builds on Sigma, an event scheduling simulation engine, and uses various input scenarios to show how sensitive the procurement time is to the effects of multitasking and merge bias. Insights gained from the simulation may help practitioners to more accurately determine the time required to procure complex equipment and to locate and size time buffers in the procurement process.