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Empirical Validation of the Prediction of Operator Performance (POP) Model

This paper describes an experiment conducted to validate the Prediction of Operator Performance (POP) model in a flight simulation context. The POP model uses subjective ratings of the demand imposed by single tasks to predict both the demand and performance associated with concurrent tasks. Previous experiments on the POP model have investigated a wide range of experimental tasks including tracking and verbal reasoning. In this experiment eight subjects performed flight control, threat assessment and threat identification tasks singly and in combination. Performance measures and POP scores were collected at the completion of each task condition. The results demonstrated performance decrements in the dual task conditions that were consistent with the predictions. The implications for the POP model are discussed in terms of workload modelling and human performance modelling within the context of the Integrated Performance Modelling Environment (IPME) currently being developed within the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency