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Long‐term patterns of hepatitis C virus RNA concentrations in a cohort of HIV seronegative men with bleeding disorders

Little is known about the natural history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA concentrations over the course of infection. The aim of this study was to describe the natural history of HCV RNA concentrations in 85 HIV negative men with bleeding disorders infected with HCV for up to 30 years. HCV RNA concentrations were measured in yearly serum samples using a branched DNA assay. HCV RNA concentrations increased over time in this cohort. Two years after exposure to HCV, 53% of patients had undetectable concentrations and no patients had levels >7 log10(genome Eq/ml); by 20 years, these proportions had changed to 23% and 32% respectively. The RNA concentration correlated strongly with alanine aminotransferase (ALT; correlations of 0.41–0.71 depending on stage of infection) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST; 0.20–0.51) levels. Patients with haemophilia A had significantly higher HCV concentrations than those with other disorders. An effect of HCV genotype on HCV RNA concentrations became nonsignificant after excluding patients who were persistently HCV PCR negative and who could not be genotyped. The correlation of HCV RNA concentrations with other markers of liver function, such as ALT, means that studies with clinical outcomes are required to assess whether HCV RNA concentrations provide additional prognostic information to that provided by these other markers. J. Med. Virol. 68:68–75, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.