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Projecting complete cohort fertility in Singapore.


 This study estimates Singapore's partial cohort fertility by age and ethnic group for 1992 and complete cohort fertility for the next 10 generations of females who were aged 34-43 years in 1992. The aim is to determine whether Singapore's population is being replaced. It is argued that, if total period fertility remains below replacement level, then complete cohort fertility will also fall below replacement level. This paper determines whether total period replacement fertility was below replacement level long enough to depress fertility in the short- and medium-term future. Analysis is based on the author's calculations of complete cohort fertility rates for 18 generations of reproductive age women aged 15-44 years spanning the period 1946-92. Cohorts were born during 1931-48. Future projections to 2002 are based on the assumption of a normal linear curve for Malay and Indian fertility and a log-normal curve for Chinese fertility and fitted for the years 1983-92 by the method of moments. Findings indicate that no cohorts had completed fertility with fewer than an average 2.1 children for total population and each of the three racial groups (Chinese, Malays, and Indians). In 1992, total period fertility was 2.60 for Malays, 1.56 for Chinese, 1.95 for Indian, and 1.76 for total population. The projections to 2002 are made separately for three fertility assumptions, two mean age assumptions, and two standard deviation assumptions. The projections for 2002 indicate that Chinese complete period fertility is likely to remain below replacement level for cohorts born after 1949. Indian complete fertility will be below replacement level for the 1957 cohort. Malays will have above replacement level fertility. The lowest complete fertility would be among the 1955 cohort at 2.37.
