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Long-term infective endocarditis mortality associated with injection opioid use in the United States: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND
The expansion of the U.S. opioid epidemic has led to significant increases in infections such as infective endocarditis (IE), which is tied to injection behaviors. We aimed to estimate the population-level IE mortality among people who inject opioids and compare the risk of IE death against the risks of death from other causes.


METHODS
We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of injection opioid use. We defined injection behavior profile by both injection frequency and injection techniques. We accounted for competing risks of death and populated the model with primary and published data. We modeled cohorts of 1 million individuals with different injection behavior profiles until age 60. We combined model-generated estimates with published data to project the total expected IE deaths in the U.S. by 2030.


RESULTS
The probability of death from IE by age 60 years for 20-, 30-, and 40-year-old men with high frequency use with higher infection risk techniques compared to lower risk techniques for IE was 53.8% versus 3.7%, 51.4% versus 3.1%, and 44.5% versus 2.2%, respectively. The predicted population-level attributable fraction of 10-year mortality for IE among all risk groups was 20%. We estimated that approximately 257,800 people are expected to die from IE by 2030.


CONCLUSIONS
The expected burden of IE among people who inject opioids in the U.S. is large. Adopting a harm reduction approach, including expansion of syringe service programs, to address injection behaviors could have a major impact on decreasing the mortality associated with the opioid epidemic.