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Probabilistic Approaches to Setting Acceptable Biological Catch and Annual Catch Targets for Multiple Years: Reconciling Methodology with National Standards Guidelines

Abstract In U.S. federal fishery management, acceptable biological catch (ABC) is set below (or equal to) the overfishing limit to account for scientific uncertainty, and annual catch targets (ACTs) are set below (or equal to) the ABC to account for implementation uncertainty (i.e., imperfect management control). In previous papers, we discussed probabilistic approaches to setting target and limit reference points for fishery management. Here, we explain how those approaches can be adapted to provide ABCs and ACTs over multiple years and otherwise made consist with recent revisions to the National Standards Guidelines, a part of the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations that describes implementation of the Magnuson–Stevens Reauthorization Act. Although described in terms of U.S. fishery management, our methods are sufficiently general for use by researchers in U.S. state agencies or elsewhere in the world. We demonstrate them via an example application to vermilion snapper Rhomboplites aurorubens in U.S. Atlantic waters.