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The development of a microsimulation model to predict the future burden of dementia and effects of public health interventions

Microsimulation models can synthesise complex information, evaluate uncertainties, estimate long‐term and population wide effects of (hypothetical) interventions, and take time trends in risk factors into account. No microsimulation models have been developed so far that include all stages from cognitively healthy to severe dementia and evaluate risk factor changes and the effects of (hypothetical) interventions. We developed a microsimulation model that predicts how dementia incidence and mortality will develop over the coming decades in The Netherlands, taking into account different risk factor scenarios and interventions.