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FDI risk assessment and warning of Chinese enterprises based on set-value statistics

In the traditional risk assessment method, expert provides an exact value for the given risk indicator, which may lead to serious errors due to the limit of expert knowledge. In this paper, though systematically analyzing risk factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) of Chinese enterprises, we first construct a FDI risk index system based on some principles, such as comprehensiveness, systematicness, comparability, and scientificalness. For the uncertainty and ambiguity of the risk assessment by experts, a method for evaluating the FDI risk of Chinese enterprises is proposed based on set-value statistics theory. And the reliability measure of risk assessment values is also investigated. In the process of risk assessment, the evaluation result given by expert is no longer an exact number for each indicator, but an interval, which ensures that the evaluation result is scientific, objective and reliable. Finally, the system of FDI risk assessment and warning for Chinese enterprises is built, which provides a significant reference for domestic enterprises making investment decisions.