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Entrepreneurs, innovators, and unruly reality: Learning-based strategies to manage the risks of unanticipated events

The risks that challenge new ventures fall into two categories: (a) execution and strategy risks arising from failures of the management team, and (b) risks arising from events beyond the control of the management team and not discernable by them at the time key decisions must be made. This paper concerns the latter, external events that emerge unbidden to influence the success of the enterprise. Our thesis is that a rapid and effective learning process offers the best way to manage these risks. Independent entrepreneurs and corporate innovators can rely on three learning-based strategies to manage risk from an unruly business environment: Rapid Learning: the planned use of unanticipated events to discover emerging hazards in time to take effective action: Evidence-Based Management: early, frequent, and deliberate gathering of evidence, especially from customers and competitors, to improve the product quickly and inexpensively: Tools for Organizing Insights: formal frameworks for planned learning, especially real options and scenario planning.