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Macroeconomics, Economic Stratification, and Partisanship: A Longitudinal Analysis of Contingent Shifts in Political Identification

This study examines the effects of unemployment and inflation on aggregate party identification since 1953. Distributive explanations emphasizing partisan preferences about macroeconomic outcomes and their effects on different income groups are gauged by letting the explanatory variables have dissimilar effects when different parties hold office. Independents are included so multinominal logit can be used to trace movements between all three identification choices. When a Democrat is president, increased unemployment heightens Democratic identification but inflation has no effects. When a Republican is president, increased unemployment and inflation reduce Republican identification. These results reveal historically contingent relationships between macroeconomic outcomes and partisan coalitions.