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Effect of forecasted typhoon track uncertainties on storm surge predictions for the coast of Shanghai

ABSTRACT A high-resolution typhoon-induced storm surge model based on the unstructured grid finite-volume method was developed for the Shanghai coast. The storm surge generated by Typhoon Prapiroon (2000) was simulated, and the results demonstrated good agreement with observations. The average relative error in the simulated water level was 12.8%. The statistical difference between the predicted and observed typhoon tracks was also analysed using data from 2004 to 2011. After Johnson transformation, the angular deviation follows a normal distribution. Five simulations were conducted for the observed track and four synthetic tracks (deviating 30° and 45° clockwise and counterclockwise from the observed track). The simulations reveal that the surge level is sensitive to the deviation angle. A new predictive scheme with optional angles deviating from the forecasted track was developed and applied to Typhoon Matsa (2005). The results indicate a significant reduction in the error of the peak water level.