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[Probability of premature mortality caused by four major non-communicable diseases and its impact on life expectancy in Wuxi, 2008-2018].

Objective: To analyze the trend of premature death of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Wuxi from 2008 to 2018 and evaluate the influence of premature mortality probability caused by four main NCDs on life expectancy. Methods: Based on the mortality data collected by Wuxi Mortality Registration System and the population data collected by Wuxi Public Security Bureau during 2008-2018, this study analyzes the trend of the probability of premature death on malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. The impact on life expectancy was analyzed by using the methods of abridged life table, Joinpoint regression, and life expectancy contribution decomposition. Results: From 2008 to 2018, the total probability of premature death of four main NCDs in Wuxi were declined consistently from 11.25% to 9.25% (AAPC = -2.0%, 95%CI: -2.6--1.5), higher in female (from 7.74% to 5.91%) than that in male (from 14.49% to 12.51%). The Wuxi resident's life expectancy increased by 1.86 years (from 78.66 to 80.52 years), in males and 1.26 years (from 83.85 to 85.11 years) in females, respectively. The decline of premature death of malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory system diseases had a positive contribution to life expectancy, which contributed 0.34 years (23.90%), 0.15 years (10.50%), and 0.03 years (2.36%) to the life expectancy growth, respectively. Among which, premature death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in men aged 40-55y had a negative contribution to life expectancy (-0.04 years). The probability of premature death of males with diabetes was on the rise (AAPC = 7.1%, 95%CI: 2.8-11.6), which negatively contributed to life expectancy for both males and females, reducing life expectancy by 0.03 years (-2.14%) in Wuxi. Conclusion: The premature death probability of four main NCDs in Wuxi declined consistently from 2008 to 2018, which played a positive role in the growth of life expectancy. Compared with females, males had a higher premature death probability and a slower rate of decline. More intervention and health management of premature male death on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes should be conducted to improve life expectancy further.