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[Limitations of the indicator-total fertility--as suggested by the real situation of family planning in our District].


 Among all 1982 births in Chongwen District of Beijing, 98.99% were 1st births, which means that the goal of 1 child/couple is a virtual success. According to some journals and essays, the total fertility rate of a certain year reflects the average number of children born to each woman for that year. The total fertility rate for Chongwen District was 1.38 in 1980, 1.36 in 1981, and 1.62 in 1982. According to this explanation, every woman of this district averaged 1.38 children in 1980, 1.36 in 1981, and 1.62 in 1982. That is, in 1982, 62% of the women bore a 2nd child. The real situation is not like this at all. Since 1975, 1st births were on the increase and 2nd births declined. The single child/family rate was close to 99%. There was not a single year since 1975 that the 2nd child rate passed 45%, so it is impossible to say that in 1982 62% of the women gave birth to a 2nd child. One simply cannot explain the total fertility rate of a certain year to be the average number of offspring a woman has for that year. The numerical value of 1982 total fertility rate does not reflect how many children a woman had on the average for that year. Rather it is possible only to say that the total fertility rate for a certain year can only indicate the fertility standards for that year. When there are major changes in marriage and fertility (e.g., later marriage and hence later births), one cannot take the total fertility rate of a certain year to predict a woman's fertility standard for her entire life, nor evaluate the birth control work of a district. In order to do that, one must use the rates for birth control, 1 child/family, late marriage, and late fertility, as well as consider the number of 1 Child Certificates. Nor should population growth trends be predicted by using the total fertility rate.
