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The empirical basis of risk assessment in child welfare: the accuracy of risk assessment and clinical judgment.

The importance of risk assessment is juxtaposed with the lack of empirical support regarding the validity of risk inventories. This study compared risk ratings of one risk assessment tool to decisions made by case managers. The researchers sampled 450 children and compared predictive utility of risk assessment to child protection decisions. Risk assessment was consistent with clinical judgment in 74% to 81% of cases, more than previously reported in studies of risk assessment validity. Further analyses identified discriminate functions at the instrument's category and individual-item levels. The results have implications for the validity of the instrument and its utility in child welfare.