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Combining catastrophe technique and regression analysis to deduce leading landscape patterns for regional flood vulnerability: A case study of Nanjing, China

Urbanization leads to changes in land use, and the expansion of impervious surfaces leads to an increase in flood vulnerability. Predicting and analyzing these landscape pattern changes are important in the early stages of urban planning. In practice, the threshold for obtaining comprehensive and detailed hydrological and meteorological data is high, which makes it difficult for landscape and urban planners to quickly evaluate urban floods. To compensate for these trends, we took Nanjing, China, as the study site and discussed the leading flood vulnerability landscape patterns based on quantitative assessments. We introduced catastrophe theory to integrate three indicators and seven subfactors for flood vulnerability assessment: exposure, including precipitation; sensitivity, including elevation, slope, soil and drainage density; and adaptability, including land use and forest coverage. Then, we calculated the landscape pattern metrics (shape index, fractal dimension index, related circumscribing circle, contiguity index and landscape division index) at the class level. Finally, we divided the city into four subregions, established regression models for the subregions and the whole city, and deduced the leading flood vulnerability landscape patterns in each region and the whole city. We found that the leading landscape patterns varied among different regions. According to the research results, the landscape pattern indexes identified in this paper can be interpreted intuitively, which can provide a reference for modifying the planning layout of regional green infrastructure, optimizing the vulnerability of urban floods, and providing a basis for further improving Nanjing urban planning and alleviating the urban flood vulnerability. The methods proposed herein also will benefit land use and green infrastructure management in other regions lacking meteorological and hydrological data.