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Modeling access to wind resources in the United States

To project the US potential to meet future electricity demands with wind energy, estimates of available wind resource and costs to access that resource are critical. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) annually estimates the US market penetration of wind in its Annual Energy Outlook series. For these estimates, the EIA uses wind resource data developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for each region of the country. However, the EIA multiplies the cost of windpower by several factors, some as large as 3, to account for resource quality, market factors associated with accessing the resource, electric grid impacts, and rapid growth in the wind industry. This paper examines the rationale behind these additional costs and suggests alternatives.