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Land use cover change has non-trivial and potentially dominant impact on global gross primary productivity (2000-2100)


 Anthropogenic land use/cover (LULC) change alters terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), which is a major atmospheric carbon sink. Identifying the impacts of future LULC changes on terrestrial GPP has been challenging due to the complexity of incorporating future LULC into ecosystem models. Here, we present eight-scenario-based projections of global spatially explicit LULC at 1km resolution over the period 2015-2100. We further conducted Fourteen experiments to quantify the contribution of LULC change to GPP dynamics relative to that of climate change under different scenarios. We find that global GPP change would be underestimated by 10.92%‒16.16% during 2000-2050 and 1.41%‒14.57% during 2050-2100 when modeled without LULC dynamics—as in most existing GPP modeling efforts. Particularly, LULC-change-dominated areas would account globally for 1.65‒2.20 the size of the Amazon rainforest. Our findings underline the necessity of incorporating future LULC dynamics into process-based models and highlight the non-trivial role of LULC in transitioning toward sustainability.