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Evaluating the Effects of Tracer Choice and End‐Member Definitions on Hydrograph Separation Results Across Nested, Seasonally Cold Watersheds

Isotope‐based hydrograph separation (IHS) is a widely used method in studies of runoff generation and streamflow partitioning. Challenges in choosing and characterizing appropriate tracers and end‐members have, however led to presumably highly uncertain IHS results. Here we tested the effects of end‐member definitions and tracer choices on IHS results in nested Prairie watersheds of varying size and landscape characteristics. Specifically, the consideration of eight potential “new” water end‐members, eight potential “old” water end‐members, and two stable water isotope tracers led to 80 potential IHS results for each stream water sample. IHS‐related uncertainty was evaluated using a Gaussian error propagation method. Results show that choosing an appropriate “new” water end‐member is most challenging during the freshet: highly variable “old” water fractions associated with high uncertainties were attributed to changing conditions from melting snow only to rain‐on‐snow. In summer and fall, it was rather the choice of an appropriate “old” water end‐member that was most problematic. IHS results obtained using δ18O versus δ2H as a tracer were significantly different except in the flattest and most wind‐sheltered watersheds examined. Overall, δ2H‐based IHS results were more uncertain than their δ18O‐based counterparts. Recommendations are therefore made toward careful selection of a tracer and a sampling strategy aimed at characterizing the most appropriate end‐members for IHS, especially when dealing with seasonally cold watersheds.