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Effective Promotional Strategies Selection in Social Media: A Data-Driven Approach

Nowdays, many companies, organizations and individuals are using the function of sharing or retweeting information to promote their products, policies, and ideas on social media. While a growing body of research has focused on identifying the promoters from millions of users, the promoters themselves are seeking to know which strategy can improve promotional effectiveness, which is rarely studied in the literature. In this work, we investigate an open problem of effective promotional strategy selection via causal analysis which is challenging in identifying and quantifying promotional strategies as well as the selection bias when estimating the causal effect of promotional strategies from observational data. We study the promotional strategies not only on the content level (what to promote) but also on the context level (when and how to promote). To alleviate the issue of selection bias in observational studies, we propose a data-driven approach that is a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) based method, which helps to evaluate the causal effect of each promotional strategy and discover the set of effective strategies to predict the promotional effectiveness (i.e., the number of users infected by the promotion). We evaluate our proposed method on a real social dataset including 194 million users and 5 million promoted messages. Experimental results show that (1) the top-ranked strategies by our PSM based method significantly and consistently outperform the correlation based feature selection methods in predicting promotional effectiveness; (2) we conclude our observations from the real data with three interpretable and practical ideas for steering social media promotion.