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Quantitative Factors and Mathematical Modeling of CoVID-19 Pandemic Under Human Interventions

In this paper, the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (CoVID-19) pandemic under human intervention is studied. A mathematical model is built based on the characteristics of the pandemic, and the concept of quantitative factors k and Rk are introduced to quantitatively measure the intensity of prevention and control efforts and the control efficiency on the development of the pandemic; using the data reported daily by Hubei Provincial Health Commission, China National Health Commission, World Health Organization (WHO) and John Hopkins CSSE, the model equations were computer-fitted to obtain k and Rk for some selected countries and regions in different stages of the prevention and control efforts, and the corresponding fitting curves are plotted. The fitting results are in good agreement with historical data, indicating that the model can be used to predict the pandemic development well. The pandemic development trends in some countries and regions were well predicted. Taking Wuhan as an example, the effects with different assumed k and Rk values are demonstrated. Finally, the applicability of the Kermack-Mckendric approximate analytical solution of SIR model in China excluding Hubei Province is discussed.