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Forecasting State Demographic Poverty: The Case of California

ABSTRACT. This article evaluates the results of decade-interval forecasts of California state poverty for 11 demographic segments, based upon smoothed projections of polynomial regression models. The forecasts are compared to current data from the American Community Survey (ACS), where the ACS has replaced both the Decennial Census long forms and the Current Population Surveys for officially estimating poverty. The results indicate that the smoothed curvilinear decade forecasts of demographic state poverty were very accurate. Consequently, similar time-trended changes can be employed in other studies—but with appropriate caution.