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Recession dating and real-time data

The NBER is the accepted dater of the start and end of recessions in the U.S. When recessions are called by the NBER, they are generally marked by a downward trend in the following variables: real sales in manufacturing and retail, real personal income, payroll employment, and industrial production (NBER 2003). As explained by Novak (2008), the NBER typically makes the call well after the peak of economic activity. The NBER bases this call on the data available at the time of its decision. But these indicators are revised over time. Indeed, these revisions can be substantial, and in some cases, they can significantly change the way we view a period of economic history. This has led to extensive study of data revisions in an attempt to better understand how data are revised (Croushore and Stark, 2000).