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The Transition of Egypt in 2011: A New Springtime for the European Neighbourhood Policy?

Abstract As we have witnessed in the first few weeks of 2011, the Tunisian and the Egyptian people have promoted a fundamental change in government and leadership within their countries. In the case of Egypt, the direction and likeliness of a deep societal democratization process are still unclear. The role and ability of foreign actors such as the European Union (EU) and its member states to support this process have so far not been shaped into a new political strategy of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Before the Arab revolutions of 2011, the foreign policy of the EU towards the Mediterranean countries was often characterized by the dilemma between the EU's stability and democratization goals. The change from the EMP to the ENP was assumed to imply a reorientation of EU foreign policy goals from a normative long-term oriented democratization to a strategic short-term stabilization of authoritarian systems on the Southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. This ambivalence of EU foreign policy is due to the environment of authoritarian rule and restrictions it has had to act within during the last few decades. The article will first give an empirical overview of the ENP policy towards Egypt. The empirical results show a multilayer policy of the EU, containing different goals and working with a combination of interest-based and normatively oriented tools. In this respect, the ENP towards Egypt mirrors the ambivalent objectives and ideas of the EU's role in the Southern Mediterranean. Secondly, the article will survey the first EU initiatives and actions after the revolution in Egypt. It will analyse the short-, medium- and long-term steps of the EU to support the starting process of democratic and economic transition and compare them with the existing ENP policies in order to identify commonalities and changes in the EU approach. The normative questions on the democratic power of the EU will be discussed in this context.