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An Empirical Model of Voting Behavior in the Bulgarian Parliamentary Elections of 1994

There are a number of empirical studies which look at the relationship between economic conditions and voting behavior in industrialized democracies. Free elections, however, are a new phenomenon in Eastern Europe. This study observes the relationship between economic conditions and voting behavior for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections of 1994. The empirical model uses cross-sectional data from 31 constituency districts in Bulgaria to examine whether votes for parliamentary seats were influenced by ideological factors or economic factors such as inflation and unemployment. The results indicate that economic conditions are important determinants of voting behavior in Bulgaria. In addition, ideology was a major influence on votes in the rural areas. Thus, both the pain of the transition process initiated in 1991 by the Democratic government, and the ideology of the rural population explain the electoral victory of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (formerly the Communist Party) in 1994.