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Prospects for Reducing Carbon Intensity in China

For the first time, the Chinese government has proposed a compulsory target to reduce carbon intensity, with a goal of 17% outlined in its 12th Five Year Plan (between 20112015). Whether or not China can achieve this goal, however, remains a question. This paper assesses the political and technical prospects for achieving the new carbon intensity target by exploring three main questions: (1) Why has the Chinese government’s attitude towards climate policy recently changed? (2) What has historically driven carbon intensity reductions in China? (3) How might carbon intensity change in China during the next five years? We argue that Chinese policymakers now recognize climate change policy as an effective means to induce much-needed change in Chinese economic and social development, and that energy efficiency improvements, particularly in the industrial sector, have been and will continue to be critical to reducing carbon intensity in China.