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Fall risk six weeks from onset of stroke and the ability of the Prediction of Falls in Rehabilitation Settings Tool and motor function to predict falls

Objective: To investigate whether the Prediction of Falls in Rehabilitation Settings Tool (Predict FIRST) and motor function could be used to identify people at risk of falling during the first six weeks after stroke, and to compare the risk of falling according to Predict FIRST with real falls frequency. Design: A longitudinal, prospective study. Patients: Sixty-eight people newly diagnosed with stroke admitted to an acute stroke unit. Methods: The participants underwent an assessment of motor ability (Modified Motor Assessment Scale according to Uppsala University Hospital version 99 (M-MAS UAS-99)) and falls risk (Predict FIRST) on the first to fourth day at the acute stroke unit. Falls occurring in the acute stroke unit were recorded and falls occurring after discharge were reported by telephone follow-up. The prediction of falls was analysed with binary logistic regression. Results: Fourteen of the patients (21%) fell at least once during the first six weeks after stroke. The strongest significant predictor for falls was a high score on Predict FIRST (odds ratio 5.21, confidence interval (CI) 1.10–24.78) followed by M-MAS UAS-99 parts C–E (odds ratio 0.65, CI 0.44–0.95). Predict FIRST underestimated the risk of falling as the median fall risk was 9% according to Predict FIRST. Conclusion: Although Predict FIRST has the ability to predict falls in people with recent onset of stroke, there is some underestimation of fall risk.