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Seasonal hydrologic predictions of low‐flow conditions over eastern USA during the 2007 drought

A seasonal streamflow monitoring and forecasting component is implemented into the Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (Luo and Wood, 2007a ), which supplements the existing soil‐moisture‐based analysis framework by providing real‐time streamflow monitoring and forecasting up to 6 months lead time. Evaluations were conducted over four basins in eastern USA to understand the forecast skill of the system for the extensive hydrologic droughts in 2007. Consistent with the agricultural drought forecasts reported by Luo and Wood ( 2007a ), the streamflow subsystem can forecast low‐flow conditions for up to three months in advance, with Brier scores ranging from 0.10 to 0.49. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society