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Economic antecedents of temporal variation in the incidence of ocular trauma

PURPOSE To test the reciprocal risk hypothesis that the monthly number of unemployed persons in Alabama predicts: 1) the odds that a worker will suffer an ocular injury; and 2) the incidence of ocular injuries at home. METHODS Data from the United States Eye Injury Registry and from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are analyzed with time series methods to test the hypotheses. RESULTS As implied by the reciprocal risk hypothesis, the monthly odds of a worker reporting a job-related ocular injury decrease as the number of unemployed persons increases. The incidence of ocular injuries in the home, however, increases when the number of unemployed persons increases. CONCLUSIONS Consistent with theory and earlier research, the incidence of ocular injuries appears related to the performance of the economy. Unlike earlier research, however, we find a reciprocal risk between injuries at work and home. The findings suggest that public health efforts to prevent injuries could be made more effective by strategically shifting the focus from home to work and vice versa depending on changes in the local economy.