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[Mortality in relation to disabilities, health, management and psycho-social conditions among the community-residing elderly people].

To examine the predictive factors for the survival among community-residing elderly people, a cohort of 1405 randomly selected elderly people, aged 65 years and over, living in S City, Osaka, was investigated in October 1992 and followed for 38 months. Follow-up was completed for 1,325 (94.3%) (154 deceased and 1,171 alive). The main results were as follows: 1. From the Cox proportional hazards model analysis of survival, controlling for age and sex, hazard ratios for disabilities of communication, intellectual functioning, behaviour, locomotion, locomotion, personal care, and urinary and fecal incontinence were significantly higher than 1 (1.50-3.14). On the other hand, hazard ratios for participation in health examinations, daily preventive health practices, participation in social activity, and having a sense of life worth living were significantly lower than 1 (0.43, 0.37, 0.44 and 0.52, respectively). 2. From the Cox proportional hazards model using the likelihood-ratio forward method, disability scores of communication and locomotion showed significant hazard ratios (1.08 and 1.14, respectively), and for these hazard ratios were 1.47 (95% confidence interval (CI); 1.13-1.91) and 1.92 (95% CI; 1.52-2.44), respectively when comparing a score of 5 to a score of 0. Hazard ratios for participating in health examinations and daily preventive health practices were 0.44 (95% CI; 0.31-0.63) and 0.58 (95% CI; 0.38-0.88), respectively, and remained as statistically significant factors associated with survival. 3. Health management efforts such as health examinations and daily preventive health practices can be assumed to be able to enhance the prognosis of the elderly.