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Informing Africa’s urban transformation: A response to Fox et al. and Potts

Understanding the underlying causes and consequences of Africa’s rapid urban population growth is crucial to improving longterm prosperity. There are various schools of thought on the matter. One perspective holds that, whatever the causes, dense concentrations of population have the potential to transform economic circumstances and reduce poverty, provided that an efficient urban form is created (Collier and Venables, 2015). Many influential international organisations endorse this view and are actively encouraging African governments to embrace urbanisation and reap the benefits of an ‘urban dividend’ (Lall et al., 2017; United Nations, 2016; United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2017). A contrary standpoint is that urbanisation driven by rural destitution, civil wars and environmental problems is likely to aggravate hardship, spread disease and increase congestion because resources available to invest in expensive urban infrastructure are deficient (Buckley and Kallergis, 2014). Accordingly, many governments believe that curbing the growth of large cities and skewing public finds towards the countryside will reduce pressure on urban systems, limit social discontent and avoid disasters (United Cities and Local Governments of Africa and Cities Alliance, 2013; Turok, 2015). A third possibility reflects the experience of many Asian countries, where rising agricultural productivity and urban industrialisation have fuelled a virtuous circle of rising household incomes and higher tax revenues. The result has been ever-increasing investment in urban infrastructure, competitive businesses and decent housing (Ellis and Roberts, 2016; UN-Habitat, 2014; World Bank, 2013). Government action depends on recognising why urbanisation is so significant. It also requires going beyond the symptoms of current urban problems to focus on the root causes. Securing high level political commitment requires reliable information on the broad dimensions of urban change, as well as finer-grained data on the structure and performance of settlements. Detailed evidence on the scale and determinants of population shifts is also necessary for more responsive spatial planning and for identifying future development land that can be