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Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics

This chapter deals with the question of how we should think of the probabilities introduced in statistical mechanics. It is usually said that these probabilities are introduced on the basis of our ignorance of the precise state of the system, or our incapacity to treat analytically the equations of motion in order to deliver a detailed account of the evolution of the system, or both. This suggests an epistemic reading. However, we make predictions on the basis of them, that are verified by experiment. This suggests that they be thought of as objective chances. It looks as if we have to employ both the epistemic and the objective concept, in an inconsistent way. Moreover, the standard equilibrium probabilities, applied to a system that has relaxed to equilibrium while isolated from its environment, cannot be either credences or chances. It is argued that the hybrid concept, epistemic chance, resolves these puzzles and is suited to play the role required of probability in statistical mechanics.