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Downscaled GCM projections of winter and summer mass balance for Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada (2000–2100) from ensemble simulations with ECHAM5‐MPIOM

We apply a direct downscaling approach to generate ensembles of local‐scale glacier mass balance projections from coarse‐scale general circulation model (GCM) data. The general modes of the atmospheric circulation over a large geographical region are linked statistically to Peyto Glacier's winter and summer balance separately. Our study focuses on the generation of ensemble projections derived from simulations with ECHAM5‐MPIOM forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ‐ Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A1B and B1. The resulting ensembles of mass balance projections show a moderate increase in winter balance and a steep decrease in summer balance. Together these results suggest continued frontal recession and downwasting of Peyto Glacier and a shift of the equilibrium line altitude by at least 100 m above that estimated for the 1966–2001 period suggesting that very little of the glacier will remain by 2100. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.