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Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting

This work describes strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting from a theoretical and a practical point of view. Theoretical topics treated are: generalizing the concept of competition, dividing the growth cycle in four "seasons", and using logistics simply qualitatively to obtain rare insights and intuitive understanding. Practical topics addresses are: determination of the uncertainties, how to decide whether to fit cumulative or per unit of time data, and how to deal with a bias toward a low ceiling.