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The Impact of Tax Shocks and Oil Price Volatility on Risk - a Study of North Sea Oilfield Projects

We examine the impact of market volatility and increased fiscal take on risk in strategic natural resource projects. An increase in 2006 UK oilfield taxation is used as a natural experiment for assessing the impact of a fiscal increase on oilfield projects comprising 73% of UK reserves. Stochastic cash flow at risk models combine market volatility and tax-take at the oilfield level to extend earlier North Sea studies. We demonstrate that a 10% Secondary tax increase in a composite UKCS fiscal system with a-priori nonlinearity directly increases overall cost structures, resulting in a 14% decrease in project values, and significantly, a 67% risk increase for UK Oilfields. Risk effects are asymmetrical across the size varying sample, marginal prospects are most affected.