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Identification of the Vulnerability of Petrochemical Processes using Expert Assessment Methods

The article is devoted to the study of the applicability of expert assessment methods for analyzing the vulnerability of production and technological processes at the petrochemical industry facilities in the event of equipment failures leading to a malfunction of the object. Justification is given concerning the need for an expert assessment procedure for identifying the combinations of failures of the production process in case of failure of specific elements of the process flow diagram. Examples are given related to the use of expert methods for predicting the risks of hazardous events and calculating possible consequences for the population, the environment, and the state as a whole in the event of an accident using methodological recommendations for risk analysis developed by Rostechnadzor. Enterprises, in particular, of the petrochemical profile, need methods, the use of which will make it possible to reasonably develop more advanced preventive measures to counter potential threats. Each combination of failures corresponds to its own array of diverse initial data, including the results obtained using the Event tree analysis and Failure tree analysis methods, the results of calculations of damage indicators, economic indicators, expert assessments in determining the «weights» of the criteria when finding production vulnerabilities of the technological process. The choice of a priority scenario is based on such methods as the Reduced Hierarchy Analysis method, Full Hierarchy Analysis method, multicriteria optimization — the shifted ideal method. It is proposed to improve the possibilities of using the method for determining scenario of an emergency considering a comprehensive assessment of the values of indicators of a set of criteria in order to identify the most vulnerable combination of failures and measures to ensure industrial safety.