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Deterrence, Blackmail, Friendly Persuasion

The long history of deterrence, and especially nuclear deterrence, is replete with debates regarding the nature and effectiveness of the concept, changes and contradictions in how it is employed in practice, and even continuing doubts as to whether it is morally justifiable. The end of the Cold War, the rise of rogue states and terrorism, and the role of strategic defenses have all further confused what was already politically, militarily and morally an awkward situation. Recent failures to deter acts that were almost universally condemned by the international community have shaken the concept still further. The current efforts to prevent Iran and North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons, together with the recent US–India Peaceful Nuclear Co-operation Agreement, have raised troubling questions regarding who is entitled to have nuclear weapons and what purpose such weapons should serve. All states that currently possess nuclear weapons pledge allegiance to the concept of deterrence and say that their doctrines and policies support deterrence. It does not follow, however, that their political, strategic and operational doctrines are the same, or static, or necessarily well understood by potential adversaries, or even by their own citizens. It is not much of an exaggeration to say that new military doctrines or strategic weapons are almost always both supported and criticized on the basis of their supposed effect upon deterrence. In some cases, they are said to be necessary because of the inadequacies of deterrence. This indicates that deterrence is an important lodestar, but one which is subject to widely differing understandings and interpretations. This is at least partly due to the fact that discussions of deterrence frequently fail to address the crucial question: deter whom from doing what? Deterrence was not discovered at the beginning of the nuclear age, nor did it disappear with the end of the Cold War. The word itself comes from the Latin verb deterrere, to frighten. Seen in its most general form, deterrence is at the heart of law enforcement and is clearly relevant to the rearing of children. In a very simplistic form, deterrence is a crucial factor in the mind of someone trying to decide whether to Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 237–256, September 2007