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Clues of Ongoing Deep Magma Inflation at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) from Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of SAR Data

Understanding the characteristics of a volcanic system is always important and becomes crucial when the volcano is in pluri-decadal unrest and located in a densely populated area, such as Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Ground deformation is a powerful source of information for studying the activity of magmatic sources and hydrothermal systems, even when difficult to detect otherwise. Here, we use ground displacement from ERS-ENVISAT and Sentinel-1A SAR images to investigate the 1993–2000 subsidence and part (2015–2022) of the present unrest. For each of the two time periods, we combine the line-of-sight displacements to obtain vertical and eastward displacements, and apply the empirical orthogonal function analysis to these latter time series—treated as a single data set—to decompose space-time fields into separated modes, consisting of uncorrelated spatial patterns and associated temporal evolutions. We only retain the first mode, since it captures the main deformation during both investigated periods, is the sole mode related to long-lasting (years) processes, and is less affected by noise than original data. Our analyses: (i) Confirm that most of the deformation is related to the activity of a 3–4 km deep sill-like source, which is inflated by magma and/or magmatic fluids during periods of unrest and deflates during periods of subsidence; (ii) Evidence ongoing deformation linked to local fluid migration in the Solfatara area; (iii) Identify persistent deformation features where peculiar fluid migration processes occurred during the 1982–1984 unrest; (iv) Most importantly, provide direct evidence of deep magma inflation at least since 2015, thus giving a strong warning of increasing risk at Campi Flegrei. Results demonstrate the capability of our approach to disclose hardly detectable processes and suggest a tool to monitor the activity of the deep magmatic source. Our approach can be useful also in other volcanic systems.