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Characteristics and causes of the fertility transition in China.


 Three methods were used to describe the fertility transition in China between 1953 and 1987: 1) analysis of the comprehensive fertility index, married women's fertility index, and the married women's ratio index used by Coale; 2) measurement of the degree of deviation of marital fertility rate from the natural fertility rate; and 3) analysis of the direct causes of marital fertility based on UN demographic techniques. In the Coale analysis, a fixed point was determined after which there was fertility decline. Based on this method, the Chinese fertility transition began between 1971 and 1973, when the country was at a medium level of socioeconomic development at best. The pace of decline was slow between 1953 and 1965, rose rapidly between 1965 and 1970, and peaked in 1975. The European fertility transition model was characterized as fertility decline preceded by marital pattern changes. In China, the most important marital changes in age at first marriage and age specific marital fertility occurred between 1970 and 1980, a period of simultaneous rapid fertility decline. In a UN-style demographic analysis, gross fertility declined from 180.2 in 1953 to 77.5 in 1987 due to birth control, women's marital ratio, and age distribution. The economic and social conditions were conducive to fertility decline, and contraceptive use increased during the 1970s. Fertility transition can occur gradually through social and economic development and couple decision-making or through carefully controlled government intervention. The impact of Confucianism in Chinese culture was to give preference to the social norm of behavior over conduct within the family. China did not follow the Western model of fertility transition because of the speed and brevity of the transition, which was the quickest and shortest in the world, and the short interval between the decline of age specific fertility among fertile and infertile women. The strongest impact on fertility decline in China was the family planning policy, which regulated delayed marriage age and parity progression.
