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When Will the Millennium Development Goal on Infant Mortality Rate Be Realized? Projections for 21 OECD Countries Through 2050

Background: Reduction of under-five year mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 compared to 1990 level has been adopted as Target 4A in the Millennium Development Goals. Since infant deaths account for over seventy percents of under-five year mortality, the same two-thirds reduction Target of infant mortality rate (IMR) will be a prerequisite for achieving the Target 4A. Methods: We develop classical and kinked experience curve equations as our models to project IMR for 21 OECD countries for 2015 and 2050 We also use projected IMR by the UN and by the U.S. Census Bureau for comparison. Findings: Our projection indicates that only two countries will meet the reduction goal by 2015. However, all but four countries will achieve the garget by 205'3 On the other hand, projections by UN and the U.S. Census are more pessimistic in that only seven or four countries are expected to meet the target by 2050. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that the kinked experience curve model may be a useful alternative projection methodology. The results from all three projection methodologies suggest that each country may need a comprehensive review of its policy and programs of infant mortality control for major improvement.