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Using SAS Predictive Modeling to Investigate the Asthma's Patient Future Hospitalization Risk

The focus of this study is to develop predictive models to forecast future Asthma hospitalizations for patients diagnosed with Asthma. Using SAS® Software tools such as predictive models provides great benefit to insurance companies, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies trying to manage their resources and define future plans and policies. The strength areas of predictive modeling are: a) an ability to incorporate any type of variable into the analysis, b) Dynamic, as they can easily accommodate any information as they become available to adjust the model accordingly. A recent study shows that around 21 million Americans are diagnosed with asthma, which represents a large section of the insurance and pharmaceutical patient population. Asthma patients are classified into two groups: Controlled vs. Uncontrolled asthma; however, during the year 2000, the national surveys show that there were nine million physician office visits and more than 900,000 hospitalization cases in addition to the emergency room visits. Based on the American Lung Association reports, in 2007, almost 2.5 million people over the age of 65 had asthma, and more than 1 million had an asthma attack or episode.( American Lung Association 2007) We examine data from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MPES) and California Health Interview Survey. It was proven that the use of predictive modeling did show benefit by pointing to optimal treatment for patients and can be used to develop better investments for health plans.