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A Comparison of the Effects of Key Determinants on Share Prices of India's Largest Public and Private Sector Banks

The banking sector in India has come under the scanner following some key changes in monetary policy. The recent quarterly reports of several banks have clearly showed a rise in non-performing assets (NPAs) and deteriorating asset quality. With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowering interest rates following slower economic growth, bank share prices have risen sharply. The share price of banks is impacted by both internal and external factors. This paper is an attempt to compare the key drivers of the stock prices of India’s largest public and private sector banks. Bank specific metrics were important drivers of profits at both banks. Risk factors such as gross and net NPAs and capital adequacy ratio were also important for both banks, suggesting that bank share price appreciation could come at the expense of asset quality. Productivity measures were key drivers of the stock price of India’s largest public sector bank SBI, but had no effect on the share price of India’s largest private sector bank, HDFC bank. Asset usage efficiency measures were key determinants of the share price of HDFC bank but not of SBI. The single most important determinant of the share price of SBI proved to be business per employee, a productivity measure while total assets and its key component advances along with deposits were key drivers of profits at HDFC bank. Managers at both banks and their shareholders thus can look at these drivers to develop a broad understanding of what influences stock prices of these two benchmark Indian banks.