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The Tourism as Determinant of the Economic Growth in South Tyrol

This study investigates the relation between tourism and economic growth for the South Tyrolean economy by using the Johansen cointegration analysis to obtain a cointegrated vector among the relevant variables and the Granger Causality to investigate causality. We use annual data from 1980 to 2006 of the GDP of South Tyrol, the number of foreign tourist in South Tyrol and the relative prices (RP) between South Tyrol and Germany (more than 60% percent of the tourist origin). We show that the estimated long-run elasticity of the real GDP with respect to tourism demand is 0.29 and the Granger Causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourists and RP to real GDP. Therefore the tourism-led growth hypothesis is supported empirically in the case of South Tyrol. In other words, in South Tyrol, tourism reinforces long-run economic growth but economic growth does not reinforce tourism. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in the number of tourists and relative prices produce a continuous and sustained positive effect.