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FORECASTING TREE SIZE DISTRIBUTION BY NUMERICAL APPROXIMATION OF THE FORWARD KOLMOGOROV EQUATION

ABSTRACT. Forest management planning of uneven‐aged stands involves forecasting of the tree size distribution. The temporal development of the size distribution in a forest stand may be described by the forward Kolmogorov equation. The objective of this study is to illustrate that numerical approximation of the solution to the equation provides a reasonably accurate way of forecasting future tree size distribution, especially for stands with non‐normal size distribution. Furthermore, a method for the practical application is devised. The analyses compare observed and forecasted tree size distributions for two forest stands, 1) an unthinned stand of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.), and 2) an uneven‐aged stand of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) managed under the selection system. The analyses show that the size distribution in the uneven‐aged stand may be forecasted correctly for a 20 25 year period, while for the even‐aged stand the method seems to fail after 10 to 15 years.