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The Use of Probalistic Cost Estimating, CEVP ® , in the Management of Complex Projects to Defined Budgets

Summary In the late 1990s significant underestimation of cost and schedule for major infrastructure projects became a signature issue. Numerous projects including London’s Jubilee Line, the Channel Tunnel and Boston’s Central Artery/Tunnel Project experienced very large cost and schedule overruns that were highly visible and broadly criticized. Studies of individual projects and histories, showed that overly optimistic estimating was not a new problem and identified several fundamental issues that needed to be corrected. A central theme of the more successful of these new methods was the explicit consideration of uncertainty (risk and opportunity) in the estimating process. An early leader in developing risk-based approaches to cost and schedule estimating in the US was the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) which, in 2002, developed its Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP ® ). CEVP was registered by WSDOT to recognize the Agency as the developer of this specific process and to require that use of CEVP would adhere to WSDOT Guidelines (www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/ProjectMgmt/RiskAssessment). Key principles of CEVP have now been broadly incorporated in policies, procedures and requirements of other Agencies. This paper deals with the application of key management principles, as informed by the CEVP method, to the Alaskan Way Viaduct replacement project in Seattle. The preferred alternative, a bored tunnel, will replace an existing elevated viaduct, damaged in an earthquake, with 4 lanes of traffic in the largest TBM driven soft-ground tunnel to date. Management principles included: developing and communicating a clear, quantified understanding of the project with a strategy for delivery; definition and management of potential risk and opportunity; use of value engineering; managing to budget and; clear communication with the public and stakeholders. These are addressed in this paper.