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Long Waves in War, Production, Prices, and Wages

This article summarizes the main empirical findings of a research project on long waves of roughly 50 years length in political/economic life. The statistical analysis of 40 historical economic time series, along with data on great power wars, indicates that war plays a central role in the long wave, that “stagflation” can be seen as a phase of the long wave, and that war dampens economic growth. Since 1495, long waves are identified in great power war severity and in internationally synchronized trends of prices and real wages. Weaker long waves are found in world production since 1750, these phases leading the war phases by about a decade. A theoretical model consistent with these lagged correlations among variables is elaborated. Long waves are seen as arising from a two-way causality between war and economic growth.