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Manifestos and Voting Behavior in Third-Wave Democracies: Evidence from Ghana

Custom to pluralistic societies in emergent democracies, political mythology holds that since Ghana's Fourth Republic's inception, electoral outcomes have been fundamentally determined by ethno-political identification and other social cleavages to political parties. However, despite the potential influence of party manifesto contents in determining electoral outcomes, very little is known about the value of party manifestos in shaping voting behavior in the history of elections in the Fourth Republic. This is unfortunate because such knowledge can inform both the academic study of electoral politics and voting behavior. This article, rooted in the classical work on economic voting at both the individual and aggregate levels, presents original results from interviews with voters who participated in all the three recently held elections under study. Through interviews with 11,600 respondents from 116 constituencies and across all 16 regions, the study finds that the voting pattern in recent elections is not consistent with the popular ethno-social dynamics of Ghana's electoral politics. The results imply that party identification remains a significant determinant of voting decisions; nonetheless, the manifesto contents of political parties have become pivotal in shaping voting behavior rather than voting patterns based on socio-psychological notions and political party alignments. It concludes that voter inducement (kind or cash) in election periods is less relevant in structuring voting behavior. Further, it concludes that unless a major realignment occurs, electorates prefer a party with policies that maximize their utilities or will lead to the most considerable average benefit, as there is no reason to vote for a policy with idiosyncratic benefits or values. Thus, parties' policy blueprints or manifesto contents have become strong mobilizers and key determining factors for voters. As such, political parties need to invest in developing concrete policy programs that resonate with the citizenry to spur successful electoral outcomes. party financing and abuse of incumbency, elite consensus, election managing conflicts, the transition and of


Introduction
The political party manifesto is a formal document that pronounces the goals of the party's policy rooted in its underlying values and specifies policy proposals to achieve these goals (Budge et al., 2001). In this respect, manifestos offer a clear window into the positions political actors across the ideational spectrum take on a given issue, presenting sets of beliefs and promises of action regarding the issue if elected. Therefore, political parties contesting elections put aggregate interests into programs and manifestos that offer a choice of values and direction.
body was manipulated and influenced by the military-led PNDC government. This apparent distrust of the INEC led to the main opposition party's boycott of the parliamentary elections.
The events and aftermath of the 1992 elections led to major reforms in the management of elections in the country in terms of the integrity of the electoral process. Since then, every election has been an improvement over the previous one.
Indubitably, manifestos have been embedded as part of the electoral politics of Ghana even before independence. This is evidenced in the number of national and local elections, byeelections, plebiscites, referendums, and the manifestos that had been formulated (Ayee, 2011). In 2020, Ghana held another successful general election, the eighth since 1992, which has seen political power swing between the two major political parties, the National Democratic Congress While elections in the 4th Republic have essentially been institutionalized, the country still faces several democratic deficits -issues of winner-takes-all and politics of exclusion, abuse of incumbency, incipient ethnic tensions and intolerance, and a minimalist approach to democratic competition (Frempong, 2012). Studies on Ghana's electoral politics since the attainment of independence more than six decades ago exist (Austin,1965;Gyimah-Boadi, 1997;Ayee, 2002;Frempong, 2012). These studies have focused on either the outcomes and challenges of the elections, voter alignments, ethnicity, or legal and institutional frameworks. Others have tended to focus on campaign issues, party financing and abuse of incumbency, elite consensus, election management, managing conflicts, and the transition to and consolidation of democracy.
However, an aspect that has not received sufficient scholarly attention is the value of the manifesto contents of political parties in shaping voting behavior. Consequently, ahead of Ghana's eighth consecutive elections in 2020, this study sought to assess voters' expectations for the election. In particular, the study sought to ascertain the issues that informed the voting preferences of electorates in the immediate past elections (2012 and 2016) and whether manifesto contents were a key determinant for the 2020 general elections party.
As averred by Gabel and Hix (2002), manifestos play a vital role relative to understanding the political space, the number of dimensions, the policy content of these dimensions, and the location of actors in the political competition and outcomes. However, as in the case of other third-wave democracies, scholars and democracy experts have adopted conflicting assumptions about the dimensionality, character, and determinants of electoral outcomes in one of Africa's stable democracies. Indeed, among the popular notions is that electoral outcomes since the inception of the 4 th Republic are influenced predominantly by ethno-social cleavages and party alignment and less about party policies or manifestos. As a contribution to the resolution of this theoretical conflict, the paper assesses the relative value of manifesto contents of political parties in shaping voter behavior using the three recent elections as a case study.
Electoral studies are multifaceted, including approaches based on normative (democratic) theory, rational choice and game theory, institutionalism, path dependence, political culture, and discourse analysis. There are also single-country and comparative studies of electoral inputs and administrative processes governing elections, voting technology, candidate recruitment and selection, the nature of political party development, election turnout, voting behavior, the influence of the media, and the role of the election campaign. On the other hand, elements on the "output side" include the electoral system's consequences, representation patterns, parliamentary behavior, legitimacy, and accountability (Millard, 2009). Accordingly, the goal is not to do a comparative study or analyze the whole broad spectrum of an electoral system but element. Consequently, the study achieved the following general objectives: First, it examined the extent to which manifesto contents of political parties shape voting behavior in new and unconsolidated democracies. Second, it assessed the relative influence of ethnopolitical dynamics on voting decisions in pluralistic societies. The specific objectives the study achieved are as follows: i) it assessed the value of party manifesto contents on voting decisions in 2012, between the two dominant political parties in the country.

Significance of the Study
As Dalton (2016) observed, assessing voting behavior is crucial as it provides cues for judging the political candidates and issues, political participation, and stability in electoral systems. From this point of view, this study did not discount the role of cultural identities and socio-political milieus in shaping voting behavior in pluralistic societies. Instead, it argues that party manifestos have become strong mobilizers and critical determinants of voting decisions not only in established democracies but also in third-wave democracies. The very reason is that the voting behavior has drifted more toward the Downsian economic model on political competition and rational choice decision-making. Consequently, this paper is a greenfield empirical study on the confluence of party manifesto contents and voting decisions in an emergent democracy. Thus, it provides the empirical basis for parties and political actors to invest in developing concrete policy programs that resonate with the aspirations of citizens to spur successful electoral outcomes.

Scope, Limitations, and Delimitations
This study is against conflicting conclusions within the scholarly communities that are often intertwined with popular notions that electoral outcomes since the inception of the 4th Republic are influenced principally by party alignment or ethno-social cleavages. Against the notion, this study sought to achieve the following: To understand voting patterns and determinant factors for voters in recent elections and to precisely ascertain the relevance of party manifesto contents in voting decisions in the elections. Consequently, a comparative analysis of the manifesto contents of the parties that participated in the elections under review was outside the scope of the study, and neither was it within its scope to assess the role of party manifestos in all elections postindependent Ghana. The study sample covered 116 (42%) out of 275 constituencies in the country and is less than half of the total, which may be one of the possible constraints in the sampling. So, the main delimitation of the study was that the number of constituencies selected for the survey was disproportionate and lacked regional balance since the focus was more on swing constituencies and regions. However, respondents with formal education were more willing to participate in the survey than those without formal education.

Theory and Arguments
One of the defining features of democracy is the periodic holding of elections (Dahl, 1971).
Elections are, therefore, among the most ubiquitous contemporary political institutions, and voting is the single act of political participation undertaken by a majority of adults in a majority of the nations in the world today (Rose & Mossawir, 1967). Multi-party elections have become a global norm as they provide legitimacy for the governing and give voice to citizens as opposed to narrow political or sectional elites (Kerr & Luhrmann, 2017). A critical aspect of elections and the democratization process is how political parties formulate manifestos as policy blueprints to influence voter behavior in a competitive multi-party democracy. As such, parties consciously try to shape their images in the form of policy statements prior to an election campaign for the voters to see what the parties seek to execute should they win power. Thus, parties occasionally alter their manifestos between elections to shape a new party identity based on lessons from past electoral defeats (Janda et al., 1995).
Manifestos are vital in enhancing responsive governance since elections are contested freely and won based on substantial ideas. Thus, citizens enjoy political liberties since governments will act in the people's best interest (Przeworski et al., 2012). On the other hand, others have argued that or manifestos and ideologies have played a strikingly insignificant role in shaping vot politicization during elections tended to occur around social groups, local interest, and personalities and not around contents" (Chazan, 1983, p. 67).
Further, elections can be grouped into two main types: Thus, presidential and parliamentary elections. According to classical theory, these two are known as the 'first-order' elections, while municipal or local elections are considered 'second-order' elections (Reif & Schmitt, 1980). The stakes in elections can therefore be evaluated based on whether they are national in character or are municipal or local elections. The stakes can further be assessed based on the country or continent context. For Example, Reif and Schmitt consider European and regional elections to be 'second-order' elections because there is fewer stakes in the eyes of voters. As a result, many people feel less obliged to vote in those elections.
However, in the context of presidential and parliamentary elections, thus 'first order' elections often assume a national character, and where the stakes are high political parties that adopt all legitimate means, including well thought out policies, to win the mandate of the people. As strategic agents, they (parties) are aware of the trade-offs between policy aims, how to be reelected, and winning votes. For instance, incumbents seeking re-election, while conveying an attractive vision, must also communicate about the policies enacted during their time in power.
Although this creates incentives for implementing partisan policies, it pushes the incumbent to fulfill a fair proportion of all the campaign promises made.
Thus, incumbents often have little room to maneuver; consequently, they sometimes focus on areas that they expect the greatest electoral fortunes. In this case, the promised policy might be implemented at whatever point in the cycle considered most favorable (Brouard et al., 2018).
Thus, following elections, governing parties have an incentive to demonstrate their ability to deliver the policies promised during the campaign, and the same applies to the other end of the electoral cycle when the imminence of the next election may push them toward re-electionoriented policymaking (Tufte, 1978;Alesina & Rosenthal, 1995). In essence, the existence of electoral cycles in economic policies and outcomes supports the idea that the distance to/from the next/last election affects how political parties react (Franzese, 2002).
However, some obstacles deprive some voters of participating in the electoral process, and these obstacles emanate from two main perspectives. First, in the case of advanced democracies where electoral registration is usually automatic, limiting eligibility and access to citizenship is the main barrier to participation (Lewis-Beck et al., 2016). Second, a lack of political resources such as local political knowledge, civic skills to participate, and political mobilization from the political parties is similarly found to constitute a barrier to electoral participation (Sobolewska et al., 2013).
The preceding shows the dynamic and complex nature of electoral studies as a field, encompassing many approaches and all aspects of the electoral process. The focus of this article is on the model concerning voter turnout and voting decisions based on individual interests and social incentives, as studies on voting behavior in Africa's young multi-party regimes is an almost completely ignored research topic, although this is a classical field of political science (Erdmann, 2007a).

George A. A & Isaac O. M, Manifestos and Voting Behavior in Third-Wave ...
Consequently, as the paper seeks to assess the influence of party manifesto contents in shaping voting behavior, it employs the Downsian theoretical framework on electoral participation. Downs (1957) seminal and pioneering work, An Economic Theory of Democracy, applies economic techniques and logic modeling to electoral politics. According to the approach, as parties and candidates aim to be elected, there is a need to construct policy platforms that correspond to voters' preferences. Thus, the model provides the precise conditions under which economic theory could be applied to non-market political decision-making and a framework to analyze some interesting tendencies in political competition.
However, Downs' framework on two-party competition is assumed to be based on the axiom of self-interest; thus, victory-oriented political parties and candidates are applicable only within a certain political context. In addition to the fundamental assumption that the context relates to In other words, this ideal model works in a political system embedded with the above attributes and essentially gives rise to predictions that candidates' policies will converge to the preferences of the median voter and that elections can be expected to be decided by relatively narrow margins. It is because candidates are nearly identical in their only relevant attributes and policy preferences (Grofman et al., 2008).
Anthony Downs's theory of party systems and voting was adapted to the idea that voters in the 1950s were behaving like consumers when voting, rather than being tied to a party by social bonds and traditional loyalties -An Economic Theory of Democracy.
Accordingly, the approach posits that the following beliefs fundamentally influence voting behavior under non-market political decision-making.
1. Modeling voting decisions on rational choice terms: The ideas about rational ignorance and the rationality of not voting. That is, individuals who vote for the party they expect will yield the highest utility for them if they get into the office (in terms of policies).
2. The ethical behavior of voters: The notion of ideology as a shorthand way of summarizing policy views, party labels as voting cues. This has two implications -on the one hand, voters prefer parties that are closer to their ideal positions/interests in the left-right space. On the other hand, voters prefer parties whose policies benefit the larger society or have altruistic effects.
3. The implications of information cost and uncertainty on electoral choices: The idea that voters use parties' position on the left-right dimension as a heuristic in deciding which parties will yield them the highest utility. These models are elaborated further below.

The Rational Choice Model
One of the models that explains voting decisions is the rational choice paradigm. It asserts that an action has value only if it affects outcomes. Thus, modeling voting behavior under the domain of rational choice implies that individuals who vote for a party they expect will yield the highest utility if they get into the office (in terms of policies). Stated differently, the 'expected utility model of a voter turnout states that a voter, in deciding whether to vote or abstain, calculates the expected utility of either action or votes if benefits exceed costs (Downs, 1957). This classical model, developed from a combination of theories of social action and economic theories of rationality, essentially ascribes the motivations of individuals on whether to vote and how to vote to a calculation of the likely benefit to be derived from the preferred decision. Ledyard (1984) introduced a game theory rather than a decision theory that focuses on the problem by endogenously deriving the p (probability that the voter will be decisive). The probability is based on the rationality that each voter is acting in consequence of his or her anticipations of the actions of other voters. Similarly, Palfrey and Rosenthal (1985) show that in any symmetric equilibrium to the game of incomplete information, voters with significantly positive costs will abstain in very large electorates, while some voters with significantly positive costs will indeed vote in relatively small electorates.
Thus, the underlying view is that in large electorates, participation will result only if individuals have negative net costs of voting.
purpose of influencing the election outcome, then even a small cost to vote like a minor schedule conflict or mildly bad weather should dissuade anyone from voting (Feddersen, 2004).
Consequently, voting is seen as a rational act in which voters decide their party preference based on personal interest. The relevance of the model lies in the fact that it stresses the importance of policy or issue-based voting since parties can be influenced to reshape policies encapsulated in their manifestos to meet the aspirations of voters. Nonetheless, a weakness of the model is that it abstracts the individual voter from his or her social and cultural context (Gyampo & Debrah, 2013).

The Ethical Voting Model
ach which has two main dimensions. First, it explains the notion of ideology as a shorthand way of summarizing policy views, party labels as voting cues, and voters prefer parties closer to their ideological positions/interests in the left-right space. On the other hand, voters prefer parties whose policies benefit the larger society or have altruistic effects. That is, the pursuit of egocentric behavior This is in sharp contrast to the rational choice paradigm -in that voters, according to this theory, have two sets of preferences, the first being a set of selfish preferences, which have to do with only that individual's own utility. The second set of ethical or altruistic preferences contains the individual's perception of the utilities of others. According to Goodin and Roberts (1975), ethical behavior occurs when the stakes are low and when any individual has little effect on the outcome (low efficacy); as such, ethical preferences are likely to dominate the individual's voting decision. In other words, the model suggests that voters think in terms of group and national benefits. Therefore, the motivation to vote makes sense for many people as it is viewed as a contribution to collective interests. This explains why the rhetoric of politics tends to be phrased as benefits to society generally or too large deserving groups, rather than open appeals to selfinterest (Edlin et al., 2007).
Furthermore, it assumes that each voter acts independently based on his or her own assessment of what constitutes ethical action; accordingly, agents maximize their individual utility under a moral constraint given by a universalization principle. Contrary to the rule-utilitarian framework, this model predicts higher turnout rates among voters with higher intensity of support, thus linking ethical motivation to the spatial theory of voting (Coate & Conlin, 2004). The significant part of this model is that it provides the basis for understanding why people would vote in a certain way, especially if it would benefit the broader social group as against self and egoistic interest.

The Information-Based Model
The information model elucidates the importance of issue-knowledge in shaping voting behavior.
The model stresses the implications of information cost and uncertainty on electoral choices and asserts that voters use the position of parties on the left-right dimension as a heuristic in making voting decisions. In their work on information and elections and the relative role of issues in presidential elections, Campbell et al. (1960) averred that issue voting must embed the following three necessary conditions. First, the voter must be aware of the issue and have an opinion concerning it. Second, the issue must arouse a minimal intensity of feeling for the voter. Third, the issue must be accompanied by a perception that one party or candidate represents the model, voters are constrained both by a lack of knowledge regarding the different consequences of their decisions and by the limited intellectual capacity to analyze all available options. Thus, when the information level of the population is much less or incomplete, it can affect turnout and voting decisions.
Further, it asserts that people have a natural predisposition to vote and that the probability of turning out increases with the individual's information level. The reason is that the value of changing the election outcome is higher when the voter is more confident that he or she is voting for the right candidate (Matsusaka, 1995). The ideological preference of the voter further influences the decision to acquire information and thereby increases the likelihood of voting (Larcinese, 2009

Study Design and Sampling
This pre-election survey was a nationwide exercise, and respondents were drawn from the sixteen administrative regions of Ghana and 116 selected constituencies across the country. For a breakdown of the regional representation of the constituencies sampled, see table 1. In all, one hundred voters were interviewed in each of the selected constituencies, totaling 11,600 respondents. The study adopted purposive sampling methods and semi-structured interviews for data collection. This explains why the number of constituencies selected for the survey varies across the regions.
In other words, the main criterion used in the sampling was population size, swing regions, and new regions. In this regard, purposive sampling methods were chosen as they helped select respondents most likely to yield appropriate and useful information (Kelly, 2010). For example, Volta had just one constituency because the region has always voted one way. The region has given at least 80% of popular votes to the NDC since the return to multi-party democracy in 1992. On the other hand, Ashanti had the highest number of fifteen constituencies sampled because it is the region with the highest number of forty-seven constituencies in the country.
The last factor was the creation of new administrative regions prior to the election. We sought to determine if the creation of the six additional regions could alter voting patterns in these new regions. Consequently, among the reasons for adopting the purposive strategy is based on the assumption that, given the aims and objectives of the study, specific kinds of people may hold different and vital views about the ideas and issues in question and therefore need to be included in the sample (Robinson, 2014). As shown in Table 1

Data Analysis
Data collection instruments were systematically structured into thematic areas to ensure comprehensive coverage of specific issues and facilitate efficient, effective, and structured data capture, analysis, and presentation. The results obtained were processed into a form appropriate for analysis after editing, coding, and entering into the SPSS software. Quantitative data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) to generate tables and charts, whereas interviews were analyzed with a thematic focus (thematic approach). The themes from the interview relating to the subject under investigation were used to support the quantitative data. Quantitative analysis methods were employed using descriptive statistical tools such as percentages and frequency using tables and charts. The output of this process resulted in a data set that responded to the objectives of the study as input into the drafting of the findings and drawing of conclusions of the study.

Outcome of 2016 Elections
On the other hand, in the case of the 2016 elections, the voter turnout was 81.59%. Out of this, 54.2% of the respondents indicated that they voted for the NPP, while 43.9% of the respondents said they voted for the NDC. A cumulative percentage of 1.9% of the respondents indicated that  respondents voted for a party because they admired the presidential candidate. The third important deciding factor had to do with ethnic considerations. As such, about 8% of respondents admitted that they voted for a particular political party or candidate based on ethnic accounts or links. However, financial inducement was the least factor that determined respondents' choice of a political party or candidate.
Thus, people voted in those two elections based on other factors, and that financial inducement did not influence in any way the kind of party candidate that got their votes. Table 4  On the other hand, the NPP party and its candidate made several mouthwatering promises in the 2016 elections, which partly culminated in its margin of victory of nearly 54%. This was also the first time in the history of Ghana's electoral politics that a sitting president lost an election to an opposition candidate. Consequently, the survey aimed to establish whether voters who voted so massively for the NPP in 2016 had any regrets after four years. While most respondents (78%) had no regrets about voting for the NPP in that election, those who regretted voting for the NPP were still significant; thus, about 19% of voters, as seen in the above chart 3.

Political Party Affiliation
Concerning whether respondents were strongly attached to any political party, 56% indicated that they were strongly aligned to a specific political party. In comparison, 34% believed they had no particular political affiliation. Those with slight leanings to a political party constituted only 10%. The above parties in the country.

Previous Voting Patterns
Source: Authors (2022) Regarding whether respondents had been voting for the political party that they claimed to have strong affiliations, most respondents admitted that they have always voted for the political party with which they have some form of affiliation. Indeed, the survey results show that 86.2% of electorates leaning toward a political party have always voted for that party, with only 13.8% changing their voting patterns. The above Chart 5 summarizes the pattern of voting in the 2012 and 2016 elections.

Future Voting Patterns
Source: Authors (2022) As to whether they would vote for the political parties that they admitted having strong affiliations within the 2020 general elections, 89.7% of respondents revealed that they would vote for the party they had voted for in the previous two elections. The implication is that more than 56% of the voters are strongly attached to a specific political party. What it also means is that the NPP is slightly ahead of the NDC when it comes to a political party with a core party membership. It is also revealed that in all previous elections, this group of voters had always voted for the political party they were strongly affiliated with. Indeed, the survey results show that 86.2% of electorates with a leaning toward a political party have always voted for that party, with only 13.8% ever-changing their voting patterns. Respondents also knew that this exact scenario would play out in the 2020 elections. Thus 89.7% of respondents indicated that they would vote for the party they had voted for in previous elections. For a summary of the findings on whether electorates would continue to vote for the party they are aligned with in future elections, see chart 6 above.  (2022) Further, the survey wanted to gaug upcoming 2020 general elections. Multiple-choice answers were provided to guide respondents in measuring their state of likelihood to vote in the upcoming elections. The results of the survey indicate that the majority of the electorates were eager to vote in the 2020 elections. Indeed, an overwhelming majority of about 82% of respondents indicated that they would definitely vote in the 2020 general election. However, 14% revealed they were likely to vote, and only 1.5%

Voting in the 2020 Elections
Meanwhile, 2.2% of the respondents said they might not vote in the elections. An insignificant percentage of 0.7% confirmed that they were unsure whether they would vote in the upcoming elections or refused to respond to the question. For a summary of responses on the issue of the likelihood of voting in the 2020 general elections, see table 5 above.

Manifestos and Voting Decisions
Rose and Mossawir ( These findings imply that voters voted in these elections because of rational choice calculations. Thus, voters assessed the relative contents of the parties' manifestos and decided on the one that best served their interests. Accordingly, in his arguments on rational choice models, Aldrich (1993) observes that rational choice theories are about how the (expected) utility associated with outcomes generates or induces preferences for the actions at hand. Thus, the underlying assumption is that it is fundamental that the individual prefers outcomes with a higher utility to those with lower utility. Further, individual chooses actions to receive more highly valued outcomes as actions are the means to obtain desired ends and have value only as far as they affect outcomes.
However, Kaplan et al. (2007)  This perspective presents two implications for the findings based on the results, which show that party manifesto contents were the most significant determinant for voters in these elections. The first implication is that the NDC and NPP won the last elections based on calculations by the average voter relative to the party that offered policy programs that satisfied the most needs (utility maximization). As intimated by Evans (2004), parties offer policies, and voters at those policies, decide which maximize their utilities and vote accordingly.
The second implication is that voters voted for the winning party in these elections based on the (altruism). In this respect, McGann (2016) asserts that this line of voting is consistent with the way citizens perceive voting and participation -not simply as a (possibly) enjoyable act or as a discrete duty, but as a potential contribution to the general good. The assumption is that the larger the jurisdiction in which the election applies, the more significant the potential effect of the election outcome on the general welfare. In other words, people vote for the policy that they think will lead to the largest average benefit and that there is no reason to vote for a policy that has idiosyncratic benefits to an individual because the individual utility benefit is essentially irrelevant for large electorates.
Essentially, the study's findings confirm earlier studies on elections or political competition and the value of party manifesto contents in shaping voting behavior. For example, Dalton (2000) intimated that how people vote is decreasingly determined by their location in the political structure, such as their social class or religious membership, or by a long-term sense of loyalty.
Similarly, Franklin (2010) observed that in the 1960s, social cleavages accounted for 60% of the variance in electoral choices; this value declined to 10% in the mid-1980s. Correspondingly, party programs, the economy, and evaluations of leaders have become more important factors for voters than social ties and other factors (Kiewiet & Rivers, 1984;Lewis-Beck & Paldam, 2000).

Party Alignment
Although the objective of the paper and the variable of interest for the study is the influence of party manifesto contents on voting decisions, understanding voters' alignment through ethnopolitical identification and other social networks to the two dominant parties in the country was also assessed. As underscored by Roth (1998), partisanship and voting behavior is a complex phenomenon that cannot be explained exhaustively by a single model. According to Dalton (2016), party alignment is an early socialized, enduring, affective psychological identification with a specific political party. Stated differently, studies on voting behavior in plural societies, particularly in African countries, are related predominantly to factors such as ethnicity, personal ties, and clientelism (Van de Walle, 2003;Posner, 2005). In this regard, in their analysis of social incentives and informal networks on turnout and voting behavior, Soskice et al. (2011) hypothesized that a significant proportion of turnout and voting decisions is a consequence of voters conforming to the expectations of the informal social networks (ISNs) -of family, friends, work colleagues and perhaps neighbors, of which they are part. The incentives arise from the importance most people attach to their acceptance by those they are close to and the desire to avoid their disapproval. Therefore, voting takes place in those networks where politics is treated as important, especially around elections.
Since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992, political power has alternated between two parties only, thus the NDC and NPP, making the two the main dominant parties in the 4 th Republic. With its social democratic ideological orientation and center-left political philosophy, the NDC gets its main support and votes from rural and peri-urban settings and those within lowincome brackets. The NPP, which is center-right with its liberal political philosophy and freemarket orientation, on the other hand, gets its main support from the middle class and in the urban communities. Furthermore, as a result of ethno-historical progenitors, the NDC gets a minimum of 80% of popular votes in the presidential result from the Volta region and has always won all parliamentary seats in the region except few instances where the party lost one or two seats, only to win them back in the subsequent election that followed. Conversely, the NPP most populous region. The party also wins all the parliamentary seats in the region except two or three constituencies, dominated mainly by settlers with different ethnic backgrounds.
The aforesaid therefore lends credence to conclusions from previous electoral political studies that ethnicity is a major factor in voting decisions, especially in pluralistic societies, and is most evidenced in the election results. In other words, citizens of specific districts or regions populated (predominantly) by a particular ethnic group vote for one party one election after the other. Back on this background and in the context of Dalton's assertion that party alignment is a socio-psychological product of family and social group ties, the aim was to examine whether these social and informal networks had significant influences on voting decisions in the elections under study. The results show that 56% of voters were strongly attached to a specific political party, while 34% did not have any political affiliation. Those with slight leanings to a political party constituted only 10%. To ascertain further, the survey sought to understand which of the political parties most respondents had strong leanings toward; 52% of the respondents were affiliated to the NPP, whereas 46.8% were strongly attached to the NDC, and only 1.2% claimed to be traditionally attached to the other political parties. Thus, party alignment (links to a candidate through ethnic or party affiliation) was the second most important criterion for voters in the elections under study.
The findings bring into sharp focus the link between ethnopolitical (ethnic voting) and rational choice models in voting behavior. Consequently, in his work on ethnicity and voter alignment, Erdmann (2007b) concluded that ethno-political voting has a rational dimension in that, during periods of electoral political uncertainty, it is rational to rely on things one knows, including the extended family, personal friends, neighbors, community members, those from the next community or district, from the same ethnic group, and among others. He averred that although family or vil outside, the alliance and reliance on the next comes down to a decision to 'rely on the devil we know -as villagers often explain why they are voting in favor of a particular party or candidate.
The electoral decision in favor of a candidate from the same village or the same ethno-political group becomes even more rational if the prevailing perception is that members of the other group will vote for a member of their group. The implicit assumption is that the elected person will, in the first instance, take care of his or her own kin before any other.
Consequently, it can be explained therefore that the two dominant parties, which are aligned to the two regions and major ethnic groups in the country, are underpinned by the assumption that the voters feel their interests are best served by the party or people with whom they have an ethno-political association since it is only rational to rely on things one knows and the elected in turn takes care of his own 'people' before any other group of people.
distinctive creative synthesis that helps to understand voting behavior. Notwithstanding, the approach suffers some criticisms. For example, the model suggests that voters only have vague preferences on issues and are attracted by politicians who clearly and powerfully put forward policies on the same side of the issue. However, surveys show that candidates tend to take more extreme positions on issues when the theory would suggest that they should converge toward a centrist consensus (Rabinowitz & Macdonald, 1989;Iversen, 1994).

Conclusion
Studies on elections in Ghana are numerous, especially since the return to multi-party democracy in 1992. These studies revolve around politics of winner-takes-all, incumbency abuse, minimalist approach to the democratic competition, the independence of the Electoral Commission, and other issues relative to democratic consolidation in emergent democracies. However, despite the potential influence of party manifesto contents in shaping voting behavior, it has not received the needed scholarly attention. Consequently, this study, employing the Downsian model, which highlights the problem of free-riding relative to political competition and rational choice considerations, has brought to the fore the key determinants of voting behavior in Ghana's recent electoral history. Specifically, it has brought to the limelight the relevance or value of party manifesto contents in shaping voting decisions. Downs' approach avers that it is rational for an individual voter not to vote given the costs associated with voting and the infinitesimal chance of influencing the electoral outcome. In other words, the model underpins democratic functionality Accordingly, the study sought to understand the main determining factors for voters, focusing on the impact party manifesto contents have on voting decisions. Of the six variables, a party manifesto or policy program emerged as the most significant factor that determined voting behavior in the elections under study. The political party with a manifesto content that maximized both individual and group utilities earned the most votes in these elections.
Indeed, over two-thirds (65.8%) of respondents mentioned in the survey that they voted for a political party based on the party's manifesto contents. The second most important factor determining voting decisions was the candidates' personality. In this regard, about 18% of respondents voted for a party because they admired the candidate. In comparison, the third most significant factor was ethnic factors, as 8% of voters claimed they voted for a particular party or candidate on account of ethnic considerations. Generally, the most negligible factor that determined respondents' choice of a political party or candidate was financial inducement, as a minuscule minority of 1.4% claimed to have made their electoral choices based on inducements by political parties or candidates. Thus, people voted in the elections under study primarily based on the manifesto contents of the parties and to some extent as a result of ethnopolitical inclinations and that financial inducement, whether in kind or cash, did not influence in any way voting decisions of the electorates in the study area.
The findings imply that party alignment remains a significant determinant of voting decisions; nonetheless, the role of party manifesto contents in shaping voting behavior triumphs over voting patterns based on socio-psychological notions and cleavages to political parties. It further shows that voter inducement in whatever form during elections is less relevant in structuring voting behavior. The findings imply, therefore, that political parties need to adapt to the changing voting dynamics and fashion out policy programs that maximize the aspirations of citizens to spur successful electoral outcomes.
Finally, in terms of originality and contribution to the field, the paper counts as greenfield empirical research on the influence of party manifesto contents on voting behavior in ethnopluralistic emergent democracies.