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Developing Tools for Adaptive Integrated Water Resource Management in a Semi Arid Region: Possibilities, Probabilities and Uncertainties.

The objective of the AQUADAPT Project (www.aquadapt.net) is to develop strategic tools to inform adaptive integrated water resource policy using a co-evolutionary approach. In Spain a methodology has been developed in the framework of an integrative study to identify evidence of coevolutionary processes between the hydrological system and the water-using communities of the Marina Baixa over a period of 50 years. The Marina Baixa is comprised of 18 municipalities each with radically different land-use patterns spread over an area of 671km. The research task is complicated by the fact that Spain is a country that is currently debating the merits of a move from demand management to supply augmentation for this water-using region. Models, processes and assessments are applied to reflect a co-evolutionary perspective of the relationships between water resources, ecological quality and sustainable development. A variety of mosaics have been assembled with which to identify couplings of elements that could have spawned a co-evolving process. The paper discusses both the challenges and the merits associated with designing new methodologies in an integrative study framework for dealing with the possibilities, probabilities and uncertainties of adaptive integrated water resource management.