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Can we predict the duration of COVID-19 pandemic? an observational analysis

As of 28 April 2020, this disease has affected 212 countries and had killed 238628 people out of 3349786 confirmed COVID-19 positive cases. The true number of affected person may be much more and the pandemic march seems to be unstoppable as the virus is novel the whole population is susceptible, there is no vaccine and there is no effective pharmacological intervention. In the thick of this bleak scenario, China, the epicenter of epidemic is witnessing the near cessation of the disease. The present study aimed to analyze the epidemiology curve of six Countries and attempts to extrapolate these findings in the epidemiology curve of individual country to answer the question how long will the epidemic last in a country. ABSTRACT