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An Influence Diagram Approach to One-on-One Air Combat

In this paper, the methodology of influence diagrams (Clemen, 1996; Howard and Matheson, 1984) and game theory are utilized in the modeling of one-on-one air combat. Furthermore, a simulation procedure for solving the combat model approximately is suggested. The influence diagrams representing the pilot's maneuvering decision in a duel between two aircraft have been developed earlier in Virtanen et al. (1999) and Virtanen et al. (2001). In these models, a decision analytic utility function approach (see, e.g., Keeney and Raiffa, 1976) is used to measure the overall preferences in different combat states. Influence diagram analysis results in a probability distribution for the utility of each control alternative. The most desirable control alternative is selected on the basis of these distributions. A possible criterion is to maximize the overall expected utility.