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EIA Storage Announcements, Analyst Storage Forecasts, and Energy Prices

This paper investigates how information releases impact uncertainty on the crude oil and natural gas markets. We find that uncertainty is largely resolved when information releases, especially when the unexpected information is small and analyst dispersion is low. Further analysis shows that resolution in uncertainty is asymmetric for positive and negative surprises, consistent with a higher risk averse in negative surprises. We confirm what was expected in equity market largely holds in commodity market and the two may have contagion effect.