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Extreme precipitation events in East Baton Rouge Parish: an areal rainfall frequency/magnitude analysis

Severe rainfall events are one of the most frequent weather hazards in the United States. These events are particularly problematic for the southeastern United States because of its subtropical climate. For these reasons, and because of the recent urban growth in the parish, East Baton Rouge Parish officials are concerned whether the current stormwater drainage system can keep pace with development. As a result, this project evaluated the rainfall frequency/magnitude for parish-wide extreme events and their synoptic forcing mechanisms. To this end, this research mapped parish-wide storms and compared three interpolation techniques. It also compared two methods of areal summation and five quantile estimation techniques. Results of cross-validation suggested kriging was the best interpolation technique for this research. Also, statistical testing showed that there were no significant differences between parish-wide rainfall totals calculated using gridded areal summation and contoured areal summation methods. Although the nonparametric SRCC method best fit the storm partial duration series, the parametric Beta-P was selected to produce quantile estimates. When areal design storms for East Baton Rouge Parish were compared to point rainfall totals for the parish from previous studies, areal totals were generally smaller. However, totals were larger for longer duration events (12and 24-hour) at longer return intervals (50and 100-year). This was attributed to differences in distributions used in quantile estimation and periods of record between the studies. This research included some large events (i.e., T.S. Allison II) that were not included in the two earlier studies.