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Spatial estimation of snow water equivalent by modeling of the melting of seasonal snow and glacier in Iceland

Runoff from seasonal snowand glacier melt is critical for hydropower production and reservoir storage in Iceland as the energy system is strongly dependent on summer inflow. The isolation and high natural climate variability can pose a risk to the energy security of the power system as drought conditions and low-flow periods are usually not foreseen in great advance. Forecasting the timing, spatial distribution and magnitude of seasonal melt is a challenge and influences the operational control of energy infrastructure and long-term resource planning. As hydropower generation provides over 72% of the total average energy produced in Iceland, accurate forecasting of seasonal melt is essential for the operation of the national power system.