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Comparative Studies on Cost, Reliability and Resilience of Off-Grid Energy Systems

Rural electrification is critical for the social and economic development of developing countries. Off-grid energy systems are attractive solutions for rural electrification which may offer technical and economic benefits compared with network expansion. However, given the conditions in remote areas, off-grid energy systems are often exposed to high impact and low probability (HILP) events such as natural hazards. This is an issue as off-grid planning practices traditionally focus on average performance reliability indicators, and neglect studying resilience to HILP events. This paper proposes a practical off-grid assessment framework which brings together average and risk performance indices to optimally size off-grid energy systems and quantify their reliability and resilience performance. The proposed methodology, based on Sequential Monte Carlo simulations, is demonstrated with two off-grid energy systems: PV and CHP based systems. In addition, through case studies with applications on windstorms, the impacts of natural hazards are systematically quantified and explicitly considered in the sizing of the off-grid plant. Power system planners and operators can use this framework to quantify the reliability and resilience of off-grid energy systems and inform the decision-making on optimal portfolios for rural electrification.