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Vulnerability severity scoring and bounties: why the disconnect?

The Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) is the de facto standard for vulnerability severity measurement today and is crucial in the analytics driving software fortification. Required by the U.S. National Vulnerability Database, over 75,000 vulnerabilities have been scored using CVSS. We compare how the CVSS correlates with another, closely-related measure of security impact: bounties. Recent economic studies of vulnerability disclosure processes show a clear relationship between black market value and bounty payments. We analyzed the CVSS scores and bounty awarded for 703 vulnerabilities across 24 products. We found a weak (Spearman's ρ = 0.34) correlation between CVSS scores and bounties, with CVSS being more likely to underestimate bounty. We believe such a negative result is a cause for concern. We investigated why these measurements were so discordant by (a) analyzing the individual questions of CVSS with respect to bounties and (b) conducting a qualitative study to find the similarities and differences between CVSS and the publicly-available criteria for awarding bounties. Among our findings were that the bounty criteria were more explicit about code execution and privilege escalation whereas CVSS makes no explicit mention of those. We also found that bounty valuations are evaluated solely by project maintainers, whereas CVSS has little provenance in practice.