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Can the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources be studied without the use of transient models?

Abstract Burgeoning cities and a changing climate impose extraordinary stresses on the management of global water supplies. Groundwater flow models can greatly assist pro-active decision making, but their practical application to date has been largely limited to steady-state scenarios that conveniently ignore aquifer storage. In future, aquifer models will prove invaluable for optimizing the use of groundwater resources and confronting the impacts of climate change, but they must be run in “transient mode” that fully incorporates time-variant inflows and outflows. This will impose additional data demands in the form of reliable specific yield values, together with good temporal information on precipitation, potential evaporation, groundwater levels and streamflows. Lack of adequate field data to “fuel” predictive models is emerging as the greatest constraint on tackling groundwater problems caused by climate change.