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Integrated Energy Systems Security Assessment Based on Belief Rule Base Model

In this paper, we propose an evidence-based reasoning algorithm and BRB safety assessment method by analyzing the characteristics of endogenous and exogenous factors of safety impact. Firstly, expert knowledge is used to construct a model based on integrated energy system safety assessment, and different safety assessment indicators are selected according to the different factors, then ER algorithm is used to fuse the safety indicators and factors in integrated energy system safety assessment to obtain internal safety and external safety values, and then BRB is used to build the model and covariance matrix adaptive strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm is used to optimize the initial parameters of the model to obtain the final model. The risk management of integrated energy system depends on the results of risk assessment to determine the subsequent risk control and approval activities, so that the system can accurately “position” the strategy, practice and tool of risk management.