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A mechanistic model of purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus) population dynamics

We constructed a mechanistic model of purple nutsedge tuber population dynamics to provide a theoretical framework for the integrated management of this weed. The model relies on a transition matrix with 10 age classes to simulate fluctuations in the tuber population. Parameters of the transition matrix are given by functions of density, age, and cumulated incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) underneath crop canopies. Sensitivity ratios based on a 10% reduction in parameter values indicated that the parameters of the birthrate function were most sensitive. Simulations showed that in the absence of weed control, cumulated incident PAR was by far the strongest determinant of population size; intraspecific interference was the strongest determinant of the rate of population increase. When weed control was introduced, the simulation suggested that 95% control would be required to eliminate this weed. The analysis of simulation results led to the formulation of five research hypotheses of practical relevance to the management of purple nutsedge. New insights gained by testing these hypotheses should lead to practical recommendations as well as a better understanding of the relationships between management practices and fluctuations in purple nutsedge populations.