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Modeling the Role of Carrier Species in the Spread of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA), an aphidlike insect native to Asia, was first observed in the eastern United States in Richmond, Virginia, in 1951. Since then it has spread to 16 states from Maine to Georgia and poses a serious threat to the future existence of eastern and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga canadensis and Tsuga caroliniana, respectively) in the region. To study this problem, and to create an illustrative example of how data farming techniques can be applied to environmental issues, we created a series of model scenarios using the Pythagoras distillation to simulate the spread of this invasive species--focusing primarily on the role of carrier species in the dispersal of HWA. Since this issue may be unfamiliar to many members of the Project Albert community, a slightly more in-depth background to the problem and players therein is included in this paper.