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Taking Time Seriously

The author analyzes the time component in the relationship between economic development and democracy. The review of the relevant literature shows that no systematic analysis of lags has been performed. Furthermore, the mainstream analysis shows a disconnect between the theory and empirical studies concerning the economy–democracy relationship. Four questions are formulated regarding the timing of the effects of economic development on political democracy. A series of models are estimated and several distributions of the lagged effects are constructed and analyzed. The author finds that not only do lagged effects have a better theoretical fit, but they also produce larger coefficients as compared with the instantaneous effects. In addition, measuring economic performance in moving averages as opposed to the conventional single-year measurement produces empirically superior models that have fewer nonsignificant results. The author calls for further systematic analyses of the lagged effects of economic development and suggests a theoretical reconceptualization of the economy–democracy relationship.