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Public Debt Sustainability Assessment for Tunisia: Was the Stochastic Approach Powerful to Show Covid-19 Shock Impact?

To assess to which extent public debt in Tunisia is sustainable in the medium term, we apply a stochastic debt sustainability analysis, developped by Celasun, Debrun and Ostry in 2006. In contrast with the conventional debt sustainability analysis (DSA), this methodology explicitly takes into account the uncertainty characterizing the emerging markets, i.e the risks stemming from the interaction of the endogenous fiscal and macroeconomic shocks.