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Affective variability and childhood abuse increase the risk for nonsuicidal self-injury following psychiatric hospitalization.

Childhood abuse is associated with myriad negative behavioral health outcomes, including nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI). Models aimed at understanding the mechanism whereby childhood abuse may exert negative effects frequently highlight alterations or dysregulations in experienced affect, particularly during times of stress. The period immediately following discharge from psychiatric hospitalization represents a time of risk for individuals experiencing NSSI. We aimed to investigate the extent to which childhood abuse predicts affective variability and examine whether affective variability predicts who will experience NSSI thoughts or behaviors in the 6 months following hospital discharge. Participants were adults (N = 133) engaged in a 3-week ecological momentary assessment study immediately following psychiatric hospitalization who returned for a 6-month follow-up. Location scale modeling (LSM) was used to model the impact of childhood abuse on affect variability; estimates of affect variability were then resampled and examined as risk factors for NSSI at follow-up. Overall, individuals who experienced childhood abuse reported lower positive affect intensity. Participants exposed to emotional and sexual abuse reported less between-person variability in positive affect, and those who experienced sexual abuse evidenced higher between-person variability in negative affect. Models indicated that higher overall negative affect was associated with a higher NSSI risk, ORs ∼ 1.82-2.10 even after accounting for childhood abuse and lifetime NSSI. These findings indicate the importance of in vivo affect as a critical influence on behavior during high-risk periods, reinforcing the need to move beyond traditional cross-sectional approaches of assessment, analysis, and treatment.