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In search of ‘35 million climate refugees’ from Bangladesh!

The long-awaited Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has once again shown us that climate change discussion is a game of numbers; whether in regard to the amount of CO2 in our air, the temperature rise, anomaly in rainfall pattern, rise of the sea level or the shrinking Arctic ice-sheet. The numbers dominate questions of who should reduce carbon emission and by how much, the estimates of loss and damage by climate change or the amount of funds promised by developed countries to fight climate change. The volume of climate literature has been increasing rapidly every year [2]. How reliable are the numbers? One of the most worrying impacts of climate change is displacement of people. The main reason is that parts of the world are becoming inhabitable – physically or economically – due to sea level rise, salinity intrusion and frequent natural calamities. Arguably, climate-induced migration is a form of ‘adaptation’ [3] – adjusting to the challenges presented by climate change. Let us take Bangladesh as an example. The widely-discussed report of the World Bank [4] identifies Bangladesh as a climate change ‘impact hotspot’ under possible 2 °C warming in next 27 years’ time. The report does not comment on the possible number of ‘internally displaced’ people or ‘climate change migrants’ or ‘climate refugees’ because of that impact. Nevertheless, such numbers are coming up again and again in climate literature. A recent paper on Bangladesh [5] states that ‘It is predicted that a 45 cm rise of sea level may inundate 10–15% of the land by 2050 resulting in over 35 million climate refugees from the coastal districts’. This disturbing number signifies the possible extent of climate impacts on Bangladesh. The authors, however, did not give any reference for this figure. But, if you read the Executive Summary of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Bangladesh [6], you will find the exact same words. How does this figure come about? Interestingly, the NAPA only mentions ‘35 million climate refugees’ in its Executive Summary, but not in the main text. The number of displaced people, on the contrary, is predicted to be 20 million in another vital document of the country [7]. Bangladesh’s latest report [8] to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) chose NAPA’s number. Unfortunately, none of these important documents gives original sources for this piece of information (a style common in developing countries’ government documents prepared by consultants). Some research articles became imaginative while dealing with ‘35 million refugees’. One paper [9] recently wrote without any reference ‘The concern in India is that Bangladesh will disappear, driving 35 million refugees to India’. Two things need to be clarified: first, none of the climate change models yet predict that ‘Bangladesh will disappear’ in the coming century. Second, Bangladesh is the most densely populated country of the world,