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Long-Term Changes of Consumption after the Introduction Of Unhealthy Food Tax in Hungary

Background: Hungary introduced a public health product tax in 2011 to promote good nutrition. The tax affected nine sugary and salty product categories. Due to the favourable short-term effects of the tax, the World Health Organisation has since referred to Hungary as a successful example in this regard. This study aims to estimate the long-term effects of the tax. 
 
Methods: A unique consumer purchase dataset was analysed to examine daily fast-moving consumer goods purchases from a representative sample of 2,000 households for the years 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2018. In-depth interviews with 30 manufacturing firms were also performed. 
 
Findings: The public health product tax has been fully shifted to consumers at least in the medium-term. From 2010–2018, consumption of carbonated soft drinks increased by 4·1 l/capita (95% CI 0·3 to 7·8), of chocolates by 0·4 kg/capita (0·1 to 0·7) and of salty snacks by 0·4 kg/capita (0·2 to 0·7). Only low-fruit-content drinks and sweet biscuits experienced a decline of 2·5 l/capita (‑3·8 to ‑1·3) and 0·5 kg/capita (‑0·7 to ‑0·3), respectively. The share of taxed products within total FMCG spending grew from 5·9% (5·4% to 6·3%) in 2010 to 7·4% (6·9% to 8·0%) in 2018. 
 
Interpretation: Junk food taxes can be effective in the short-term, but they do not seem to discourage people from consuming unhealthy products in the long-term, especially when disposable income is growing, as these products are mainly luxury goods. Complex interventions are needed to achieve sustainable positive effects in diets to reduce diet-related chronic diseases. 
 
Funding Statement: The Human Resources Development Operational Programme 1.8.10 and the Competitive Central-Hungary Operational Programme 17-2017-00001 funded this research. 
 
Declaration of Interests: All the authors declare no competing interests.