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Political Change in China and Vietnam: Coping with the Consequences of Economic Reform

My purpose is to compare and assess the political prospects of the Chinese and Vietnamese states. I will argue that economic reform has profoundly changed both societies such that their "traditional" Leninist institutions are increasingly less effective tools for building popular legitimacy or managing society. My argument is that Leninist institutions work best in societies where citizens have limited access to information and alternative perspectives, and where political authorities control residence and employment. Moreover, they only work as effective tools for a limited range of ends, such as mobilizing societies to fight wars or to wage political campaigns. At present, however, in China and Vietnam economic reforms have changed both the state's goals and the social and economic environment in ways that make Leninist institutions increasingly irrelevant. In both countries, citizens are increasingly sceptical of and alienated from these institutions. Leaders in both states are broadly aware of this problem and have tried to strengthen their elected parliaments and legal systems so as to create new forms of legitimacy. But these projects have been hampered by leaders' reluctance to risk "chaos" by accelerating the decline of the existing institutions (which are after all the basis of their power). Rapid economic growth and improving standards of living provide leaders in both states with some degree of latitude, and they may yet succeed in refashioning more stable institutions. But it is also possible that the core institutions in both