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SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS : THE CASE OF UBATUBA , BRAZIL

This study aims to apply the framework of the Flag Model to the assessment of sustainability of development on the municipality of Ubatuba, on the coast of southeast of Brazil. This framework is based on the idea of critical values of sustainability, what means that sustainability depends on thresholds of occurrence of some function or indicator outcome. This concept, for practical reasons and to give policy implementation guidelines is completed with the division of the " sustainability space " in miminum and maximum values of the indicator outcome. As development here is related to the idea of welfare attainment, we start with a discussion about the main functions of the social, environmental and economic spheres that might engender welfare to the societies. After this, we address, in general terms, the meaning of the critical values of sustainability of those functions for each subsystem. The application of this framework to Ubatuba starts with a description of the local reality and definition of what are the most important local functions and its critical values for sustainability. Then we compare the situation of a set of indicators that describe those functions between the early 80´s and the late 90´s, and to complete the analysis, two development scenarios are built and assessed in terms of its sustainability and sensitivity to changes in specific variables. Two kinds of conclusions are drawn. The first is related to the very process of the application of the model and its necessity of participation, the quality of information and results. The second is related to the results obtained to Ubatuba and its implications in terms of planning and policy implementation.