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Non-linear Time-series Analysis of Social Influence

In this paper, we present Δ-SPOT, a non-linear model for analysing large scale web search data, and its fitting algorithm. Δ-SPOT can forecast long-range future dynamics of the keywords/queries. We use the Google Search, Twitter and MemeTracker data set for extensive experiments, which show that our method outperforms other non-linear mining methods. We also provide an online algorithm contributing to the need of monitoring multiple co-evolving data sequences.