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Industrial Energy Demand, a Forecasting Model Based on an Index Decomposition of Structural and Efficiency Effects

This paper proposes an approach for explaining and forecasting global industrial energy demand, at the country level, that could be seen as a trade‐off between the two main options in use: ‘top‐down’ and ‘bottom‐up’ models. It relies on a two‐term decomposition of industrial energy intensity, one evaluating the contribution of changes in the industrial structure, the other one reflecting the contribution of changes in sectoral efficiency. The former can be projected ‘bottom‐up’ using microeconomic forecasts. The latter is modelled ‘top‐down’ as a function of real per capita gross domestic product and electricity's market share. Hence, this approach enables both to project future demand and to disentangle the effects of structural mutations and efficiency gains for explaining past or future changes. The latter driver might further be decomposed into two factors: efficiency gains resulting from fuel substitutions and ‘other’ sectoral efficiency gains.