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Operational Risk Evaluation of Active Distribution Networks Considering Cyber Contingencies

A deeper coupling of information and power would make active distribution networks (ADNs) evolve into typical cyber-physical systems (CPSs). The unreliability of cyber systems can affect the security of ADNs. In this article, a methodology based on cyber-power joint analysis is presented to quantitatively evaluate the operational risk of ADNs caused by cyber contingencies. First, a typical CPS structure of ADNs is demonstrated and the influence ways of cyber contingencies are discussed. Then, a CPS modeling framework is proposed to analyze the information flow and cyber contingencies of cyber systems. To determine the best data transmission paths in cyber networks, a routing algorithm based on the link-state protocol is presented. Furthermore, in view of the response of ADNs to physical failures, an optimization model is developed to minimize the load shedding that results from the over-limited voltage. Finally, the expected load curtailment and the expected fault coverage used to quantify potential system losses are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results explain the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed models and methods.