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Persistent Growth Episodes and Macroeconomic Policy Performance in Israel

This paper presents an analysis of persistent growth episodes in Israel during the years 1961-2008. The analysis uses, in addition to the standard variables, a new index of the quality of macroeconomic management. The quality of macroeconomic management turns out to have a significant impact on growth episodes. However, our quantitative analysis shows that exogenous variables like world trade and security events had a larger impact on persistent growth episodes than did the policy variables. In contrast to previous studies about growth in Israel, that emphasized the role of supply factors as crucial for explaining growth, we found that these factors are insufficient to explain persistent growth episodes in Israel; demand variables provide a similar explanatory contribution.