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Statistical Assessment of the OWZ Tropical Cyclone Tracking Scheme in ERA-Interim

AbstractThe Okubo-Weiss-Zeta (OWZ) tropical cyclone (TC) detection scheme, which has been used to detect TCs in climate, seasonal prediction and weather forecast models, is assessed on its ability to produce a realistic TC track climatology in the ERA-Interim product over the 25-yr period 1989 to 2013. The analysis focuses on TCs that achieve gale force (17 m s-1) sustained winds. Objective criteria were established to define TC tracks once they reach gale force for both observed and detected TCs. A lack of consistency between storm tracks preceding this level of intensity led these track segments to be removed from the analysis. A sub-tropical jet (STJ) diagnostic is used to terminate transitioning TCs and is found to be preferable to a fixed latitude cut-off point. TC tracks were analysed across seven TC basins, using a probabilistic clustering technique that is based on regression mixture models. The technique grouped TC tracks together based on their geographical location and shape of trajectory in fi...