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BICYCLE AND PEDESTRIAN TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING: LITERATURE REVIEW

This report summarizes a literature review that investigated current practices for bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting. The research team examined available literature and contacted several planning agencies that are involved in developing or testing bicycle and/or pedestrian demand forecasting techniques. The literature review revealed that there are several bicycle and pedestrian demand forecasting techniques that could be modified or adapted for use by the Texas Department of Transportation. Although the techniques are untested and could have large errors, they would represent an improvement upon the existing lack of bicycle/pedestrian demand forecasting tools. The research team identified four basic categories of bicycle/pedestrian demand forecasting models/techniques: (1) aggregate or simplified trip generation models; (2) facility locator or "market travelshed" models; (3) sequential stand-alone bicycle and pedestrian demand models similar to current four-step traffic models; and (4) four-step traffic models modified to account for bicycle and pedestrian environments. The type of model/technique used by a specific agency depended heavily upon their specific needs and application. The research team also discovered several uncoordinated efforts aimed at developing bicycle and/or pedestrian demand forecasting techniques. The Federal Highway Administration is considering funding an effort to identify and examine the best practices of bicycle/pedestrian demand forecasting on a national level.