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Lotka's Law: A Problem in Its Interpretation and Application

Science, Big Science (1963) Derek de Solla Price wrote that ’the total number of scientists goes up as the square, more or less, of the number of good ones’, his text indicating that this quite provocative idea was consistent with a number of findings, including the empirical law named ’Lotka’s law’, after its discoverer.1 In August 1974, John Stewart and Paul Allison submitted to us a manuscript questioning the consistency of Price’s ’square root’ law with Lotka’s law. After this manuscript was referred to Price for comment, it emerged that Michael Moravcsik and Belver Griffith had also been concerned with this problem. Price’s reply to Stewart and Allison clearly indicated the plausibility of his earlier reasoning. Moravcsik and Griffith, working separately and in concert, explicated the differences between the Stewart and Allison and Price papers, and the assumptions underlying those differences. The present paper is intended to identify and explicate the problem for our readers, and to indicate areas of actual or