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Major clinical events, signs and severity assessment scores related to actual survival in patients who died from primary biliary cirrhosis. A long-term historical cohort study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS
One of the prognostic methods for survival in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is the Mayo model, with a time-scale limited to 7 years. The aim of our study was to assess how major clinical events, signs, several severity assessment methods and Mayo survival probabilities fit in with actual patient survival, by using yearly observations until 0.5 years before patient death from PBC.


METHODOLOGY
Data of 32 patients dying from PBC were collected prior to death at -0.5, -1, -2 etc. years (median: -5 years, range: -16 to -0.5 years). Major events registered were: first occurrence of ascites, upper gastrointestinal bleeding or manifest hepatic encephalopathy and signs, first observation of spider naevi or purpura. Severity assessment methods applied (all with scores and classes) were: Mayo (M), Child-Campbell (C), Pugh-Child (P), Pugh-Child-PBC (PP), 'Child-Pugh' (CP), and Ascites Nutritional State-Child (ANS). Fifty percent survival estimates were calculated from Mayo scores. Severity assessment method variables were: ascites (C, P, PP, CP, ANS), encephalopathy (C, P, PP, CP), nutritional state (C, ANS), edema (M), age (M), serum albumin (M, C, P, PP, CP), bilirubin (C, M, P, PP, CP), and prothrombin time (M, P, PP, CP).


RESULTS
In 27 out of 32 patients a major event occurred, always between -6 and -0.5 years (median: -1 year) and, never between -16 and -7 years (p < 0.0001). A sign was first observed in 30/32 between -14 and -0.5 years (median: -2 years). Compared to the total population, a sign, and even more so, an event indicated a shorter survival (p = 0.004 and p = 0.0002, respectively). The median 50% estimated survival (predicted by the Mayo model) fitted the actual survival from -6 to -0.5 years (r = -0.7, p < 0.0001), but not from -16 to -7 years (r = -0.1, p = 0.4). All -6 to -0.5-year severity scores correlated (p < 0.0001) both with actual survival (M, C, P, PP, and CP r = 0.7; ANS r = 0.5) and with estimated M 50% survival (C, P, PP, CP r = -0.9; ANS r = -0.6; M score: -0.99), but none with actual survival from -16 to -7 years, except for M, slightly (r = -0.3, p = 0.04). A nomogram for mean C, CP, M and ANS scores related to actual survival was constructed for the -6 to -0.5-year period. The C and CP classes A, B, and C did not appear to distinguish sufficiently into actual survival, whereas the M classes did.


CONCLUSIONS
The occurrence of a major event appeared to exclude survival over 6 years. In these final 6 years, Child-Campbell, Mayo and Pugh scores correlated equally well with actual survival and better than Ascites/Nutritional State score. In our PBC patients, Campbell was an excellent alternative for Pugh; for Pugh, the original Child-Turcotte variable limits were fully sufficient.