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Fertility decline and population aging in China.


 The author posits that population aging is a problem only when there is evidence of an unfavorable impact on society and the economy. The population age structure may change and the proportion of elderly may increase, but a problem arises only when the extent and pace of the impact is unacceptable. Slower growth in China has contributed to a gradual aging of the population. It is expected that around the turn of the century the population aged 65 years or older will comprise 7% of total population. Population aging results when the percentage of young people in the total population declines. During 1950-90 the number of Chinese children aged 0-14 years declined from 33.5% to 27.6% of total population. There was a 19.5% decline in the population aged under 15 years. Fertility decline had a greater impact on the proportion of elderly than mortality decline. The population aged 60 years and older increased from 7.5% to 8.6% during 1950-90. Over four decades the number of persons aged 5-9 years increased 78.39%. With fertility stable at 1950 levels and mortality decline, the population aged 5-9 years would have increased 373.81% by 1990. With mortality stable at 1950 levels and fertility decline, the 5-9 age group would have increased only 16.85% by 1990. It is argued in a 1988 UN report on aging that the impact of fertility decline is more concentrated. Mortality decline affects every age group, so that little change in the total population age structure occurs. Fertility decline most heavily affects persons aged 0-14 years, while mortality decline mostly affects the aged above 70 years. It is expected that fertility in China will decline to about 1.8 after 2030. At that time mortality decline and longer life expectancy will have a greater impact on population aging than at present. It is expected that during 1990-2030 the initial age structure will contribute the most to population aging.
