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An application of parametric time series in simulation modeling

A parametric time series model is employed to simulate the number of aircraft present in an air traffic control sector. Borrowing from the work of Box and Jenkins, the identification, parameter estimation and associated tests of adequacy are illustrated using data from a low altitude control sector. The fitted model provides a useful algorithm and reflects the time dependency which exists between the number of aircraft measured in consecutive time periods. The simulation is part of a larger air communications system simulation which is under development.