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The research on a double forecasting model of port cargo throughput

A double forecasting model based on conditional expectation is proposed through probability distribution of port cargo throughput. A compound variable, being composed of the number of cargo ships arriving at the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment, is constructed. The port cargo throughput is the sum of all compound variables which indicated the cargo throughput each time when cargo ships arrived at the port. Probability distribution of cargo throughput was acquired using throughout probability theory. In view of such a fact, future port cargo throughput can be viewed as an conditional mathematic expectation The forecasting model is proposed using growing function. The cargo volume of a port in Shandong province was taken as an example. Theoretical analysis and case study shows that model based on conditional expectation is better than other model available with respect to forecasting port cargo throughput.