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Measuring the impact of HIV / AIDS on Africa's commercial sector (a Kenyan case study).


 Two rounds of interviews were conducted with managers of companies in Kenya to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS and to project how this impact will change in the future. In the first round, managers of 16 companies provided information on their views about the impact of AIDS and their assessment of current prevention programs and future needs. 5 of these consented to more detailed analysis. All of the managers had direct experience with a worker with HIV/AIDS, but few felt the disease had any current impact (although all believed that an impact was inevitable in the future). This analysis assessed additional costs (health care, burial fees, and recruitment) and decreased revenues (loss in production time). Projections based on epidemiological data on AIDS indicate that the adult prevalence of the disease in Nairobi will increase from 14% in 1992 to 24% by the year 2005, while prevalence in all of Kenya will increase from 5.6 to 9% during that period. Between 1992 and 2005, the cost of HIV/AIDS is expected to increase from $20,339 to $48,402 in heavy industry, from $67,183 to $163,685 in transportation, from $184,543 to $533,054 in wood processing, and from $285,847 to $866,217 on sugar estates. Thus, labor costs are likely to rise significantly and reduce company profits unless there are appropriate prevention efforts in the workplace. A disproportionately high percentage of the costs will be due to presence of the disease among higher level staff. The most vulnerable companies will be those which are labor-intensive and those which offer the most employee benefits. This assessment will help convince business leaders and policy-makers of the financial benefits of prevention.
