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Failure probabilities of reinforced concrete column footings

Abstract The failure probabilities of reinforced concrete column footings are investigated by using the Monte Carlo method. The theoretical models for the bearing capacity of soil, the beam shear strength and the punching shear strength are based on Terzaghi (1943), Tureyen and Frosch (2003) and Lin et al. (1996), respectively. The random variables included in this study are model errors related to the theoretical strengths of footings, the compressive strengths of concrete, the strengths of reinforcing steels, the dimensions of cross‐sections and applied loads. The bearing failure probabilities are higher than 0.00135. In design practice, a factor of safety of 4, rather than the currently adopted factor of 3, is recommended for the bearing capacity of soil. With the proposed factor of safety, failure probabilities of the column footings are lower than 0.00135.