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Selection of the initial design for the two-stage continual reassessment method

ABSTRACT In the two-stage continual reassessment method (CRM), model-based dose escalation is preceded by a pre-specified escalating sequence starting from the lowest dose level. This is appealing to clinicians because it allows a sufficient number of patients to be assigned to each of the lower dose levels before escalating to higher dose levels. While a theoretical framework to build the two-stage CRM has been proposed, the selection of the initial dose-escalating sequence, generally referred to as the initial design, remains arbitrary, either by specifying cohorts of three patients or by trial and error through extensive simulations. Motivated by a currently ongoing oncology dose-finding study for which clinicians explicitly stated their desire to assign at least one patient to each of the lower dose levels, we proposed a systematic approach for selecting the initial design for the two-stage CRM. The initial design obtained using the proposed algorithm yields better operating characteristics compared to using a cohort of three initial design with a calibrated CRM. The proposed algorithm simplifies the selection of initial design for the two-stage CRM. Moreover, initial designs to be used as reference for planning a two-stage CRM are provided.