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Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in Taiwan.


 A population researcher analyzed official statistics from Taiwan to determine associations among fertility, contraceptive use, and socioeconomic development. Fertility was positively correlated with infant mortality (0.512) and illiteracy (0.649). The nonfarmer population was inversely related to fertility (-0.792). Even though there was also a similar relationship between contraceptive use and birth rate, the correlation coefficient was low (-0.020). A multiple regression analysis revealed that the percentage of people not in agricultural work was the leading determinant of fertility. It showed that as this population ratio increased a standard unit, fertility fell 36.1%. A decrease in the illiteracy rate yielded a 28.3% reduction in fertility. In addition, a standard unit fall in infant mortality decreased fertility 20.5%. A standard unit increase in contraceptive use reduced fertility only by 14.8%. These variables accounted for 51.3% of the changes in fertility in Taiwan. The path analysis showed that again the nonagricultural population had the greatest effect on fertility (direct effect = -0.361 and indirect effect = -0.379) which indicated that industrialization played a key role in determining fertility in Taiwan. Reduction of illiteracy had the next greatest effect. Infant mortality had a greater indirect effect on fertility (0.435) than it had a direct effect (0.204). Contraceptive use had a small direct effect on fertility (-0.148) and no indirect effect. Its effect was considerably less than that of socioeconomic factors of fertility. Socioeconomic development is the only solution to population problems. Contraceptive use plays a role only until fertility falls to a certain level, then socioeconomic development and cultural and behavioral factors bring about a further reduction in fertility.
