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Michael G. Farnworth on Brian Ferguson's “Is Addiction a Failure of Rationality?”

Riding a bicycle is a skill that may be appreciated for many years. The Becker and Murphy (1988) theory of rational addiction proposes that when people make choices at any point in time, they consider factors that last such as health and cravings. Many of these choices are not associated with addiction; for example, people may ride a bike when young so that they can occasionally enjoy doing this when older. Ferguson (2012) provides an overview of the Becker and Murphy (1988) theory of rational addiction, pointing out that incorporating uncertainty raises the issue of suboptimal paths, and links this model to the general term addiction. Below I provide a brief summary of the Becker and Murphy (1988) model and point out the potential of suboptimal paths that Ferguson (2012) proposes. My own area of interest involves the application of statistical duration analysis, and hence I report some descriptive analysis as well as some of my own research regarding when people start to smoke and when they first try marijuana. The fact that many people first start consuming potentially addictive goods during the learning and developmental teenage years is good reason to consider the potentially suboptimal paths that Ferguson (2012) proposes. I also briefly mention some economic empirical research into quitting. The fact that quitting can be difficult and often requires multiple attempts is another good reason to consider the types on uncertainty that Ferguson (2012) discusses. The final paragraph points out that much of the empirical economics literature on addiction is linked to the Becker and Murphy (1988) model in some way. As Ferguson (2012) points out it is valuable to keep in mind that people who face uncertainty and thoughtfully consider the future may end up on an unplanned path. The Becker and Murphy model is about rational forward-looking choices. For example, some people may regularly ride a bicycle knowing that in the future it may be difficult to put this hobby aside. This may be pleasurable and healthy for some, while for others very long and frequent rides may be damaging to their health and so-