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A Net Present Value-at-Risk Objective Function for Uncertainty Mitigation in the Design of Hybrid Ground-Coupled Heat Pump Systems

The design by optimization of hybrid ground-coupled heat pump (Hy-GCHP) systems is a complex process that involves dozens of parameters, some of which cannot be known with absolute certainty. Therefore, designers face the possibility of under or oversizing Hy-GCHP systems as a result of those uncertainties. Of course, both situations are undesirable, either raising upfront costs or operating costs. The most common way designers try to evaluate their impacts and prepare the designs against unforeseen conditions is to use sensitivity analyses, an operation that can only be done after the sizing.