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Using AMSU data to forecast precipitation from landfalling hurricanes

Heavy rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones is a major threat to life and property. Rappaport (2000) found that in the contiguous United States during the period 1970–1999, freshwater floods accounted for more than half of the 600 deaths directly associated with tropical cyclones. Forecasting rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones is a difficult task. While the storm is offshore, few rainfall observations are possible, and initializing NWP models with sufficient details of the storm so that accurate rainfall forecasts can be made is extremely difficult. Radar observations of storm rain rate and rain area are valuable, but only when the storm is within radar range of the coast. Satellite-borne microwave radiometers can measure instantaneous rain rates through the entire cloud area of tropical cyclones (Kidder et al. 2000). This paper explores how these rain rates can be used to forecast potential tropical cyclone rainfall accumulations.