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Trends in Moslem fertility and the application of the demographic transition model.


 The current status of Moslem fertility, the emerging fertility differentials among Moslem countries, and the degree to which recent fertility declines in some of these countries are associated with modernization and family planning efforts were examined on the basis of data from 30 countries in which Islam is the predominant religion. The majority of Moslem countries experienced some decline in their crude birth rates in the 1960-80 period, with the exception of the countries south of the Sahara. However, the birth rates of the countries included in this study were higher than those for the non-Moslem countries in the same region. The 1980s show a definite trend toward differential fertility among Moslem countries, with significant decreases in the crude birth rate occurring in Malaysia, Indonesia, Tunisia, Turkey, Lebanon, Eqypt, and Morocco. When Moslem countries are ranked by scores on a composite index of socioeconomic development, the data show a lack of a clear association between index scores and the crude birth rate. This suggests that there is no easily definable threshold of social and economic progress required for fertility to begin to decline. The data further refute the hypothesis that a substantial decline in infant mortality will produce a corresponding decline in fertility. In addition, Indonesia, which has recently shown a steep fertility decline, exhibits little aggregate social change to explain this phenomenon. On the other hand, the data point to the importance of family planning efforts for fertility declines in Moslem countries. The fertility decline between 1970 and 1980 averaged 6% in countries with no family planning program, 9% in countries with a weak program, and 21% in countries with a moderately strong program. Socioeconomic changes in the absence of family planning efforts have produced few declines in fertility. The trend toward relatively later age at marriage in some Moslem countries has produced little overall effect on the level of marriage and has not been a significant factor in the fertility decline in most countries. It is concluded that the situation in the Moslem world calls for a reinterpretation of the demographic transition model.
