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Probabilistic Model of Interaction of Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Mass Morbidity of the Population, Taking into Account the Scale-Population Factor Materials

It is proposed to use the phenomenology of the well-known «scale strength factor» to construct a hardware platform for probabilistic modeling of the interaction kinetics of necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of epidemics or pandemics. Exponential-plastic models have been obtained that reflect the characteristic features of these mass-population phenomena, which provide the possibility of probabilistic forecasting of various scenarios of their course. Examples of calculations based on the proposed probabilistic model are given and their correspondence to real statistical data on the development of morbidity in different countries is shown.