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Long-Term Tendencies in Budget Deficits and Debt

The last two decades have diverged from earlier experience, with many countries having peacetime deficits. Widespread deficits are shown to be linked to expansion of social programs, unmatched by tax revenue increases. Contributing to this were the output slowdowns in the 1970s, and inflation declines and increases in real interest rates in the 1980s. Anticipated effects on pension and health-care spending of population aging make future prospects worrisome, and urgent measures are needed to limit increases in spending. Developing countries have typically not put in place such generous social programs. In designing pension systems, they need to ensure fiscal sustainability by limiting the scope of public pensions and encouraging funding.