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Modeling Decision Making Under Risk using Neurochemistry

Challenges to the descriptive validity of the expected utility model have led to the development of non-expected utility models of decision making under risk including prospect theory which incorporates psychological considerations to account for the loss-gain differentiation in risk attitude and overweighting of small probabilities associated with sizable outcomes. We propose a neurochemical extension of prospect theory by linking two evolutionarily ancient neurotransmitters – dopamine and serotonin – to the valuation and saliency of outcomes over gains and losses. This model provides a biological basis for the phenomenon of loss aversion, diminishing valuation sensitivity towards gains and losses, and nonlinear response to probabilistic stimuli. We derive its testable implications linking the decision maker’s genetic makeup modulating her dopamine and serotonin tones to her attitude towards the fourfold risks of moderate prospects, moderate hazards, longshot prospects, and longshot hazards. The empirical validity of our model is corroborated by evidence from within-subject correlations of attitude towards fourfold risks as well as evidence from recent published findings on the molecular genetics of risk taking.