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Ethiopia’s leader faces self-made election dilemmas


 Significance
 The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) had initially aimed to organise the polls in May or June 2021, but a firm timeline remains pending. Meanwhile, there is increasing disquiet about the opposition’s capacity to participate in the polls. 
 
 
 Impacts
 A desire to create a semblance of competition may prompt the government to engage with detained opposition leaders.
 The elections could allow the ruling party to formalise its control of Tigray, cementing its national dominance.
 If the TPLF holds its ground in rural Tigray, home to about 80% of the population, elections in the region would be impractical.
 Intensifying boundary disputes, notably between Tigray and Amhara, could cause election delays.
 A contested election would affect the legitimacy of constitutional and institutional reforms expected after the elections.
