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Modeling the effect of an outbreak of bovine herpesvirus type 1 on herd-level milk production of Dutch dairy farms.

One of the impacts of disease is its effect on milk production. In the present study the effect of an outbreak of bovine herpesvirus type 1 on milk production at the herd level of certified bovine herpesvirus type 1-free dairy farms was modeled. The objective was to study several linear models to quantify the effects of a bovine herpesvirus type 1 outbreak on milk production accounting for the repeated measurements and incorporating our assumptions about the most likely duration of effects of this virus. Because milk production is measured at regular intervals, the data consisted of repeated measurements at the herd and cow levels. A marginal model, a subject-specific random-effect model, and a transition model were developed. The effect of a bovine herpesvirus type 1 outbreak was statistically significant in the random-effect model, and this model fitted the investigated farms best. However, a transition model might be a better model for generalizing the results to the whole population of Dutch dairy farms. The effect of a bovine herpesvirus type 1 outbreak on milk production derived from the random-effect model amounted to, on average, a loss of 0.92 kg of milk per cow per day during a period of 9 wk. The milk production loss varied from almost none to 2 kg of milk per cow per day. This reduction resulted in an average loss of Dfl 372 (Dfl1 = $US $0.50) with lower and upper confidence limits of, respectively, Dfl 12 and Dfl 730 per bovine herpesvirus type 1 outbreak.