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Coupled spatiotemporal simulation modelling explorations of co-evolving systems

Dynamic spatiotemporal simulation modelling is a powerful method of using real spatial data and created algorithms to simulate 'could be worlds.' The coupling of two dynamic models then affords the creation of a co-evolutionary modelling system. When applied to human and natural systems, the new meta- or coupled model can be used to test different scenario sets of possible planning and behavioural outcomes. Scenarios can include sustainable development, and the exploration of non-sustainable trajectories. This paper presents the Vesta model, a coupled Urban Growth and Wildfire Risk model. The linkages between human and natural systems are explored in the Vesta model, showing differential degrees of interaction. In the Vesta model, the developing city interacts with wildfires and wildfire policy. The wildfire risk component of the coupled model interacts with vegetation dynamics in its own system, as well as with urban encroachment and urban growth policies. The Vesta model is demonstrated on a synthetic dataset and on real data from the Santa Barbara, California region, where urbanization and wildfire can be viewed as conflicting processes. The challenges to coupling dynamic spatial models are explored, as well as the potential benefit of this approach to sustainable development.