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Some Evidence on the Declining Effect of Farm Consolidation on Farm Real Estate Prices

Rapid technological change has been a dominating factor in American agriculture in the last quarter of a century. Impact of this factor on the farm real estate market is well documented in agricultural economics literature. As Heady and Fuller and Van Vuuren have noted, technological change has been both land-substituting and land-embodying. This characteristic has resulted in positive pressure on land prices as farmers bid up prices of land for farm enlargement so they can more fully employ their fixed labor and capital resources. As adjustments in farm numbers and sizes have slowed in recent years, the dominating influence of farm consolidation is expected to be moderated. Fuller and Van Vuuren noted this possibility as: “… given the combination of numbers, ages, and alternatives, intensive efforts to salvage underemployment of operator and family labor by farm enlargement or by substantial employment on other farms have to be approaching an ultimate plateau”. The objective of this paper is to examine impact on farm real estate prices of changing economic conditions in rural areas. Particular attention is given to factors other than farm consolidation. The effect of these structural changes on the land market is empirically tested by reestimating Tweeten and Nelson's model with Georgia data for 1960-1974.