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Assessment of Public Opposition to Infrastructure Developments: The Case of Nuclear Power Projects

Infrastructure projects are complex undertakings that capture public attention because of their magnitude and effect on society, the economy and the environment. Public opinion presents a source of great uncertainty in infrastructure development projects. For instance, a project might experience disruptions if there is public opposition due to project location or environmental impacts. In this study, a survey was deployed to quantify how project characteristics (reactor size, type of technology, experience of utility company, number of reactor units, etc.) could gear public opinion related to new nuclear power plant projects. A logit model was developed for each project characteristic considering variables such as: (1) staterelated characteristics (region in Nuclear Regulatory Commission, number of nuclear power plants operating in the state, etc.), (2) perceived risk of nuclear power pertaining to safety and to environmental aspects, and (3) the respondents’ attributes (age, level of education, electricity consumption per month, etc.). The probability of individuals opposing a project with a specific set of characteristics was calculated using these models. The project characteristics that lead to higher probabilities of opposition were found to be (1) larger reactor size, (2) lack of experience of the utility company with nuclear power, and (3) presence of financial support from the government. The results of this research provide decision-makers with information that could be used to define the project characteristics during the planning phase in a way so as to mitigate public opposition.