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Comparing regional forest policy scenarios in terms of predicted suitable habitats for the Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans)

ABSTRACT Forecasting the potential impacts of forest policies on species of special conservation value is a prerequisite for safeguarding forest biodiversity. In this study, regional forest policy scenarios were compared in terms of predicted habitats suitable for the Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans). To derive both patch- and landscape-scale models to predict species presence in a forest stand, species occurrence data from a systematic field survey covering the whole distribution area of the flying squirrel in Finland and Multi-Source National Forest Inventory data were combined. Then, the Finnish forestry model MELA and the derived occupancy models were applied to predict the quantity of suitable habitats for flying squirrels in three different 50-year policy scenarios. The results confirm that increasing the utilization of felling potential from the level of business-as-usual to the level stated as policy targets in regional forest programs decreases the amount of suitable habitat in the future. However, regional forest programs had a less drastic impact on habitats than maximum sustainable removal, except in two regions. It should be noted that the occupancy models seemed to fail on sites that experts deem to be most suitable for the species. Obviously, there are other factors than forest management affecting presence.