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Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems: How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?

Abstract The article criticises current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d=log[NS/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product (Taagepera, Rein (2007b) Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.