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Risk Assessment at the Cosmetic Product Manufacturer by Expert Judgment Method

A case study was performed in a cosmetic product manufacturer. We have identified the main risk factors of occupational accidents and their causes. Risk of accidents is assessed by the expert judgment method. Event tree for the most probable accident is built and recommendations on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system at the cosmetic product manufacturer are developed. The results of this paper can be used to develop actions to improve the occupational safety and health system in the chemical industry.


Introduction
Professional risk management is a part of occupational health and safety management system and refers to organization and sustention of preventive actions focused on optimization of hazards and risks such as prevention of accidents, injuries and occupational diseases. Professional risk management includes complex of actions to identify, assess and reduce the level of professional risk. Implementation of professional risk management is essential to the chemical industry because of increasing hazards of modern process and facilities and more over harmful substances can emit to air or discharge to water or dispose with waste [1,2]. Therefore professional risk management must be a core of preventive health and safety protection system in the chemical industry. There is a variety of methods that have been developed to analyse risk originating from hazardous facilities and substances. Good review of qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative and hybrid methods of risk assessment can be found in [3]. Papers [1,2,4] are devoted to analysis of risk assessment methods applied in the chemical industry.
In case of time series accident data over several years are not available the expert judgement method can be recommended for risk assessment [5]. The expert judgement method makes valuable use of prior knowledge and experience of experts and can be made easily and speedily. The disadvantage, however, is that it relies on subjective opinion, hunch and intuition of experts. Limitation of the method is the uncertainties associated with the results [6,7].
The aim of this work is to assess risk of accidents by the expert judgement method and to develop recommendation on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system in a cosmetic product manufacturer. The company is located in Russia, Altai region. The main activity of the company is the manufacture of perfumes, cosmetics and household chemicals.
Legislation in Russia establishes the requirements to risk assessment of accidents and their threats of occurrence, to analysis of the causes of accidents, their factors and risks associated with them, as well as the selection of risk analysis methods for subsequent evaluation. It is known that the reasons for the implementation of accident and injury was a fault of the process equipment, as well as the human factor such as the wrong organization of work, carelessness, neglect of use of personal protection equipment [8]. However, in the Russian legislation in the field of risk analysis the human risk factors are not considered. Thus, the relevant issue is the harmonization of Russian legislation with international standards and practice in the field of risk assessment, such as OHSAS 18001, ILO- This paper consider the risks arising both at the fault of process equipment due to its failure or malfunction; and, the human factor, risks associated with the neglect of safety regulations, ignoring the use of personal protective equipment, violation of fire and electrical safety rules.
2. Results and discussion 2.1. Risk assessment of accidents by expert judgment method To evaluate the risk of accidents in the cosmetic product manufacturer the expert judgment method is used. We used the individual opinions of the expert group members based on the preliminary gathering of information from experts that were interviewed independently of each other with the following treatment of the data. In this work a questionnaire method is used. For this purpose the questionnaire is developed. Experts was asked to rate the probability of the events and the severity of accidents on a scale from 1 to 5. According to the process features there are following possible accidents: 1. Electric shock due to the failure of process equipment or insulation. 2. Thermal injure received from the hot components of process equipment. 3. Falling from a height in warehouse. 4. Injuries received from the rotating parts of process equipment. 5. Chemical injury, caused by accident in production process or in analytical laboratory. 6. Injuries caused by the explosion of the equipment which is under pressure. There are no objective criteria for proclaiming a person an expert [9]. Experts have been selected as objectively as possible among professionals who really stand out for their knowledge and experience.
Risk is evaluated as the product of the probability by the severity of accident. The assessment of accident probability and severity is exposed on a 5-point scale, which is presented in Table 1.

Table 1 -Evaluation scale
Probability of the event The accident severity Scale Very low, the event is unlikely to occur (the probability is from 1 to 20%); Minor injuries, no need to go to the medical center 1 Low, the event is unlikely to occur (the probability is from 21 to 40%) Moderate injuries without disability, appealing to the medical center 2 Middle, the event is likely to occur (the probability is from 41 to 60%); Accident at workplace with a temporary disability 3 High, the event is very likely to occur (the probability is from 61 to 80%) Accident at workplace with a heavy injuries, with full disability (amputation, etc.) 4 Very high, the event is likely to happen earlier than it is supposed (the probability is more than 80%);

Fatal accident 5
The results of the questionnaire of experts are presented in Table 2. Then scores of risk are ranked provided that the rank of one is less probable event and the rank of six is the most likely event. If scores of risk received the same ranks, then they were replaced by "standardized ranks" calculated as 2 the average amount of ranks divided among the ranks with the same incidents. The results of the ranking of risk scores are presented in Table 3.   Kendall's coefficient of concordance is used to assess consistency of experts' judgments. Kendall coefficient of concordance essentially denotes the average rank order correlation between the cases. If the coefficient is greater than 0.4, it is considered that the judgments of experts have the consistency [10].
In order to estimate significant differences in risk assessments of accidents Friedman ANOVA by ranks is used. In the test the null hypothesis is formulated as an equality of medians in experts' assessments on each accident. The conclusion on rejection or not rejection of the null hypothesis is done by comparing of the achieved significance level p with the fixed one  = 0.05. Thus, if the null hypothesis is not rejected then there are only random differences between the risks of accidents. If the null hypothesis is rejected then there are significant differences between the risks of accidents.
The data processing was performed by the Statistica program. The obtained results are presented in Table 4. In addition for the visualization of the data a box plot is constructed ( figure 1).
The table 4 shows that the concordance coefficient is equal to 0.59, which indicates a high consistency of experts' judgments. Friedman ANOVA results show that p <α, therefore the null hypothesis is rejected. Thus, according to experts' judgments the risk of accidents is significantly different. As it can be seen from the figure 1 and table 4 the most likely accident is the chemical injury.
To identify the main causes and factors of the most likely events realization (that were identified earlier) it is advisable to use an event tree analysis. The algorithm of the event tree construction is the coherent definition of events following from the main event.
All-Russian research-to-practice conference "Ecology and safety in the technosphere"   Event tree provides an opportunity to strictly record the sequence of events and identify the relationship between the initiation and subsequent events, the combination of which results in the chemical injury. Thus the event tree is developed in order to model the scenario of the most likely event at the cosmetic product manufacturer (Figure 2).

Chemical injury
Work without using personal protective equipment Getting a chemical on exposed skin when using personal protective equipment

Conclusion
In this paper we have realized the risk assessment at the cosmetic product manufacturer by expert judgement method. We have preliminary determined the possible accidents at the manufacturer. The data of experts' assessments is processed by statistical methods. Opinion consistency of experts is assessed by Kendall's coefficient of concordance. Significance of differences in accident risk assessments is estimated by Friedman ANOVA by ranks. The experts demonstrated appropriate consistency in their evaluation of risk. It is concluded that the risk of accidents is significantly different and the accident with the highest risk according to experts is the chemical injury. We have built and analyzed the event tree for the chemical injury. Based on the risk and event tree analysis we have offered organizational and technical actions to reduce the risk of implementation of occupational injuries.