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FORECASTS OF CRASH FATALITIES DURING SUMMER HOLIDAY PERIODS IN 2004

This research note provides forecasts of fatality counts for three summer holiday periods (Memorial Day, 4th of July and Labor Day) in 2004. Two time series analysis techniques, Holt-Winters (HW) Algorithm and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA), were used to do the analyses and forecasts based on 1982-2002 historical data and 2003 Early Assessment File data.