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The use of GIS-modeling for the analysis of the distribution of three-lined lizard, Lacerta media Lantz et Cyren, 1920, in the territory of Dagestan (Russia)

The publication presents the results of GIS modelling using the MaxEnt 3.3.3k program for the distribution of the Lacerta media Lantz et Cyrén, 1920 in the past, present time and future. During the analysis, the geographical coordinates of 26 places of finds of the species in the territory of Dagestan were used. The obtained models of past distribution (the Last Glacial Maximum and Middle Holocene) in the northeastern part of the Caucasus demonstrate a stable location of a potentially suitable territory within the boundaries of the known modern range. It was shown no noticeable changes in the range of the species with potential climate warming in the future (2050 and 2070). We can conclude that there are no threats to the species from global warming, in addition, the anthropogenic impact on Dagestan populations is minimal. The most promising areas were identified for the search for new populations: upstream and downstream the Samur, Kurakh, Andy-Koysu and Avar Koysu rivers. In addition, they include the gorges in the middle reaches of the Gamriozen, Halagork, Uluchay and Chiragchay rivers. This territory is poorly studied by herpetologists.