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Generalizations and Reference Classes

This chapter examines the implications of the reference-class problem for attempts to model the probative value of evidence in mathematical terms. This examination makes three distinct contributions to evidence scholarship. First, and most importantly, it articulates and explains the problematic relationship between algorithmic tools and legal decision-making. Second, it points out serious pitfalls to be avoided for analytical or empirical studies of juridical proof. Third, it indicates when algorithmic tools may be more or less useful in the evidentiary process. As such, the chapter offers yet another demonstration of the very complex set of relationships involving human knowledge and rationality, on the one hand, and attempts to reduce either to a set of formal concepts, on the other.