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Progression-free survival as a predictor of overall survival in patients with advanced breast cancer: A real-world study from the China National Cancer Center.

e12590 Background: Use of progression-free survival (PFS) as a clinical trial endpoint in first-line treatment of patients with advanced breast cancer is attractive, but would be enhanced by establishing a correlation between PFS and overall survival (OS). Methods: From January 2003 to December 2012, 1851 patients with advanced breast cancer at start of first-line therapy were enrolled in this real-world study. An independent cohort of patients hospitalized in 2013 was used for external validation. All data were collected from the Database of China National Cancer Cancer. Results: The correlation coefficient (Pearson’s r) between PFS and OS was 0.807 in patients only receiving endocrine therapy as first-line treatment, 0.643 in those treated with chemotherapy, and 0.642 in the whole cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that PFS = 12 months was the optimal cutoff value for predicting patient’s survival. The median OS was 30.0 months (95% CI 27.8-32.2) in the PFS < 12 months group, and 69.0 months (95% CI 60.8-77.2) in the other group (P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that compared with patients who did not progress at 12 months, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for death was 2.681 (95% CI, 2.301-3.124; P < 0.0001) for patients with PFS < 12 months. Subgroup analysis based on patient’s age, molecular subtype, visceral metastasis and types of first-line treatment further confirmed that PFS < 12 months was associated with significant poor prognosis in all these subgroups. In patients with luminal type of breast cancer, the HR for death was 2.567 (95%CI 2.147-3.069; P < 0.0001) for patients with PFS < 12 months. Notably, for these patients with luminal type breast cancer who had progressed within 12 months after first-line treatment, addition of chemotherapy in the second-line therapy would surprisingly have adverse effects on patients’ survival when compared with endocrine therapy alone (HR = 1.627, 95%CI 1.016-2.604, P = 0.043). The findings were externally validated in the independent cohort. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first real-world study revealed that PFS at 12 months in first-line therapy predict OS of patients with advanced breast cancer.