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Modelling and forecasting of country tourism development in Lithuania

Abstract Development trends of the European Union society show that tourism has the highest increase rate. Tourism is an important branch of every country's economy, because tourism consumption spreads over a large number of goods and services. In the last years development of country tourism in Lithuania has had a strong support from the government as well as the EU funds. The effect of economic variables on forecasting accuracy of guest numbers in Auk?taitija National Park is examined using ARMA models. The empirical results show that country tourism has a positive linear trend and the consumer price index can be used as an explanatory variable forecasting country guest number.