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HIV / AIDS: trends of the pandemic.


 The World Health Organization's Global Programme on AIDS (GPA)has organized HIV/AIDS surveillance systems worldwide and has analyzed and interpreted global trends of the pandemic. With 4.5 million cases of AIDS estimated by the middle of 1995 and a further 14-15 million adults believed to be infected with HIV, the epidemic continues to evolve. Not only is it spreading geographically into western and southern Africa, India, and other Asian countries, the number of women infected has risen to narrow the gap between the sexes. This increase in AIDS among women has led to a tandem increase in the number of mother-to-child transmissions of HIV. In some populations, however, prevalence appears to be stabilizing (among pregnant women in southern Zaire, in parts of Uganda, among military recruits in Thailand, in Australia, in northern Europe, in the US, and in Canada). This stabilization is partly due to prevention efforts. Proper surveillance is necessary to shed light on such hopeful signs and to discern their cause. Thus, the GPA will shortly publish country-specific estimates of HIV prevalence to insure that adequate prevention and care programs are instituted and to act as a monitoring tool. The GPA's prototype HIV incidence model can aid understanding of underlying trends when it is linked with surveillance data. Such a model can also allow measurements of the potential impact of vaccines when administered according to various vaccination strategies.
