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The Sensitivity of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle to ENSO

Abstract Satellite observations of temperature, water vapor, precipitation and longwave radiation are used to characterize the variation of the tropical hydrologic and energy budgets associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As the tropical oceans warm during an El Nino event, the precipitation intensity, water vapor mass, and temperature of the tropical atmosphere are observed to increase, reflecting a more vigorous hydrologic cycle. The enhanced latent heat release and resultant atmospheric warming lead to an increase in the emission of longwave radiation. Atmospheric global climate models, forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), accurately reproduce the observed tropospheric temperature, water vapor, and outgoing longwave radiation changes. However, the predicted variations in tropical-mean precipitation rate and surface longwave radiation are substantially smaller than observed. The comparison suggests that either (i) the sensitivity of the tropical hydrological cycle to E...