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Remote Sensing and Modeling of Cyclone Monica near Peak Intensity

Cyclone Monica was an intense Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of 2006. Although no in situ measurements of Monica’s inner core were made, microwave, infrared, and visible satellite instruments observed Monica before and during peak intensity through landfall on Australia’s northern coast. The author analyzes remote sensing measurements in detail to investigate Monica’s intensity. While Dvorak analysis of its imagery argues that it was of extreme intensity, infrared and microwave soundings indicate a somewhat lower intensity, especially as it neared landfall. The author also describes several numerical model runs that were made to investigate the maximum possible intensity for the observed environmental conditions; these simulations also suggest a lower intensity than estimates from Dvorak analysis alone. Based on the evidence from the various measurements and modeling, the estimated range for the minimum sea level pressure at peak intensity is 900 to 920 hPa. The estimated range for the one-minute averaged maximum wind speed at peak intensity is 72 to 82 m/s. These maxima were likely reached about 24 hours prior to landfall, with some weakening occurring afterward.