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Detecting early-warning signals in periodically forced systems with noise.

Early-warning signals for imminent regime shifts in multi-stable systems are highly desirable because it is often difficult to revert a system to the previous state once a transition has occurred. In this paper, two indicators, the phase lag and amplitude difference of the system's response, are extended to detect early-warning signals of a periodically driven, bistable complex system with noise. Our results show that both indicators can announce a regime shift of a complex system with small noise, namely, the critical point of the regime shift near a bifurcation point of the corresponding deterministic system. However, they fail to early indicate the regime shift in the case of large noise where the shift is far from the original bifurcation point. Based on the moment-expanding scheme, we reduce a large noise to a small one, and then both indicators work well again. We illustrate this approach via a parameterized lake eutrophication model verified by data. The regime shift to eutrophication could be detected in advance by studying the phase lag and amplitude difference of phosphorus concentrations. A basic statistical test is performed for the robustness of the proposed indicators. This approach provides a theoretical basis to prevent ecological environment deteriorations.