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Quantifying the effects of high summer temperatures due to climate change on buckling and rail related delays in south‐east United Kingdom

Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected per year will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the south‐east of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society