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Iranian-American Tensions and the Energy Security of the Persian Gulf Countries

ABSTRACT At the end of April 2020, Iran and the United States again exchanged harsh statements regarding each other’s naval operations in the Persian Gulf and threatened to use force against each other. While there was nothing new in the exchange of threats, two aspects are cause for concern. First, the exchange of statements came after a pause that lasted several months following the assassination by the American military of Qosem. Soleimani, a high-ranking officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in January 2020. The sharp escalation at the time forced Tehran to be more cautious in its statements and actions, and the subsequent outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic completely distracted the two sides from continuing the conflict. Their return to aggressive rhetoric suggests that the United States and Iran have adjusted to the new conditions and are ready to continue their traditional game of “chicken.” Second, the Iranian–American tensions flared at a particularly unfavorable moment. This flare-up will inevitably heighten the apprehensions of consumers of oil from the Persian Gulf region regarding potential threats to the security of raw-material supplies. The escalation, however, will not primarily harm the interests of consumers, as was the case in previous decades (from the 1970s to the 2000s), when the very presence of a threat to oil exports from the region’s countries led to oil price increases. This time the main victims will be the regional producers, who could lose their traditional customers. This reflects both a result of the current evolution of the world oil market, in which the rules of the game are no longer set by the producers of oil but by its consumers, and a shift of emphasis in the safeguarding of the Gulf states’ energy security.