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Performance scaling for structural MRI surface parcellations: a machine learning analysis in the ABCD Study.

The use of predefined parcellations on surface-based representations of the brain as a method for data reduction is common across neuroimaging studies. In particular, prediction-based studies typically employ parcellation-driven summaries of brain measures as input to predictive algorithms, but the choice of parcellation and its influence on performance is often ignored. Here we employed preprocessed structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study® to examine the relationship between 220 parcellations and out-of-sample predictive performance across 45 phenotypic measures in a large sample of 9- to 10-year-old children (N = 9,432). Choice of machine learning (ML) pipeline and use of alternative multiple parcellation-based strategies were also assessed. Relative parcellation performance was dependent on the spatial resolution of the parcellation, with larger number of parcels (up to ~4,000) outperforming coarser parcellations, according to a power-law scaling of between 1/4 and 1/3. Performance was further influenced by the type of parcellation, ML pipeline, and general strategy, with existing literature-based parcellations, a support vector-based pipeline, and ensembling across multiple parcellations, respectively, as the highest performing. These findings highlight the choice of parcellation as an important influence on downstream predictive performance, showing in some cases that switching to a higher resolution parcellation can yield a relatively large boost to performance.