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Rethinking Malignancy Risk in Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules with Positive Molecular Studies: Southern California Permanente Experience

Objectives To recognize that thyroid nodules with atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS; Bethesda III) have different risks of malignancy based on genetic mutation and to consider molecular testing of nodules with AUS/FLUS to help avoid unnecessary morbidity or cost. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Multiple locations within Southern California Permanente Medical Group. Subjects and Methods Patients included those with indeterminate thyroid nodules and AUS/FLUS on 2 separate fine-needle aspirations with positive ThyGenX testing from 2014 to 2017 who underwent thyroid surgery. Patients were classified as having benign or malignant disease. Noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features was considered benign. Results A total of 231 patients had repeat AUS/FLUS with positive molecular testing and surgery. The most frequent type of malignancy was papillary carcinoma, followed by follicular carcinoma. The overall prevalence of malignancy in nodules with mutations was 74.0%, although there was considerable variation: BRAF = 100%, RET = 100%, PAX8-PPARγ = 84.6%, HRAS = 70.7%, NRAS = 63.4%, and KRAS = 33%—a statistically significant finding (P < .001). Conclusions Not all molecular mutations in thyroid nodules with AUS/FLUS have a high risk of malignancy. Of note, patients with BRAF and RET mutations in our population had a 100% risk of malignancy. Patients with PAX, HRAS, or NRAS mutations had a high risk of malignancy, while patients with KRAS mutations had a lower risk of malignancy. Further studies are needed to determine if the presence of certain molecular mutations can help personalize care and aid in the decision for thyroid surgery.