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Tourism and Sustainable Development in an Economic Downturn

Even as the new millennium celebrations were subsiding, commentators were detecting the first signs of a global economic recession. That downturn has gathered pace following the attacks of September 11th 2001, and the still unfolding political and economic repercussions of those events. The travel and tourism industries have been especially hard hit. Tourism purchases are notoriously subject to times of recession: a holiday is not an absolute necessity. What has all this meant for the tourism sector ? In a recent ILO survey (www.ilo.org) about 6.6 million tourism-related jobs (8.5% of the tourism workforce) were reported to have been lost over the past two years because of global recession and the fear of terrorism. The optimists hope for a slow recovery, following the pattern of previous downturns. After all, the great motivating forces behind travel as a form of consumption – rest, escapism, fantasy, social status, indulgence and curiosity – appear to be alive and well. But pessimists speculate about the end of an era. Drawing on texts such as Francis Fukuyama’s The Great Disruption, they worry that 9/11 heralds his fears ‘that history is cyclical, with social order ebbing and flowing over ... multiple generations. There is nothing that guarantees that there will be upturns’ (Fukuyama, 1999: 282). Where does tourism’s potential contribution to sustainable development stand in the current uncertainties? Again there are at least two possibilities. One possibility is that sustainable development will become more important, if only in spheres where it provides new market and business opportunities. A potentially positive instance was Boeing Corporation’s decision in late 2002 to shelve work on its fuel-hungry, emissions-rich, Sonic Cruiser in favour of the super efficient and perhaps more environmentally friendly Boeing 7E7. Numerous regions, and some whole countries, could also benefit from holidays taken closer to home, potentially cutting environmental impacts. The other possibility is that low cost, but high environmental impact holidays will become an increasing norm. While budget airlines have risen rapidly, none so far have shown interest in environmental programmes. And, as tourism capacity moves into over-supply, destination regions may experience the over-capacity pressures that have hit the world’s agricultural regions. Where will higher cost, ‘greener’ tourism products be left then ? These are key concerns for this journal. During 2003, the journal will continue to publish new research, thematic discussions, and assessments of operational responses. There will be a double issue on the Mediterranean coasts,where international mass tourism came of age but where concerns have grown about the industry’s future economic vitality. The issue evaluates the implications for sustainable development of tourism policies in the region to diversify its prod-