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Issues relative to the development and commercialization of a coal-derived synthetic liquids industry. The role of synthetic liquids from coal in meeting future energy demand. Final report, January 1975--December 1976

This task attempts to determine the likely production of synthetic liquid fuels from coal in order to meet future domestic requirements for petroleum products. For this purpose it was necessary to project the world supplies of conventional petroleum over time, and the domestic production. These projections coupled with estimates of demand determine the gap to be filled. Future demand--as affected by conservation and technological alternatives to conventional petroleum--is examined is some detail. Two projections are then made of domestic supply and the demand for conventional petroleum products. These enable estimates to be made of a reasonable balance between liquid synthetics over time and imported fuels--a balance designed to reduce dependence upon imports during and after the mid-1990s. Considerable uncertainty is inherent within the estimates because of the importance of future technological innovation, changing world reserves, and the relevant economics. For a relatively surprise-free projection it appears that between 200 and 400 plants of (nominal) 50,000-barrel-per-day capacity might eventually be required.