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Solid Cancer Incidence Risk among the Population Exposed in the East Urals Radioactive Trace over 1957–2014

Purpose: Assessment of solid cancer incidence risk in the cohort of exposed population on the territory of the East Urals radioactive trace over the period of follow-up from 1957 to 2014 with the use of the individual doses provided by the latest TRDS dosimetry system. 
Material and methods: The explosion of the liquid radioactive waste storage tank at the «Mayak» Production Association on 29 September 1957 led to the pollution of the territories of the Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk Regions and the formation of the EURT, and the population residing on its territory was subjected to protracted chronic external and internal exposure. The analyzed cohort includes 21,384 people, 2,055 of whom received additional radiation before the 1957 accident due to residing in one of the Techa River settlements. The mean dose to the stomach for the members of the EURT cohort was 36 mGy, the maximum — 1.13 Gy. The analysis was performed using the DATAB and AMFIT programs (statistical software package EPICURE). A simple parametric model of excess relative risk (ERR) was used. Statistical significance and confidence intervals were obtained using the maximum likelihood method. 
Results: As a result of the analysis of the solid cancer incidence risk in the EURT cohort during the 57-year follow-up period using the linear model and the 5-year latent period, a statistically significant ERR was obtained which equals to 0.052 / 100 mGy (95 % CI 0.01–0.10, p = 0.02) in the entire EURT cohort. When the group of people additionally exposed on the Techa River before the 1957 accident was excluded from the cohort, the risk became insignificant. No significant modification of the dose dependence by non-radiation factors was revealed. The obtained results are compared well with the previous studies of the exposed population in the Southern Urals which were conducted in the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine, as well as in the world, devoted to the study of the effects of radiation exposure on population.