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A Probabilistic Methodology for Estimating Reserve Requirement and Optimizing Its Components in Systems With High Wind Penetration

The growing penetration of wind generation comes with implicit challenges for power system operators, one of which is the effect that additional shares have on the sufficient magnitude of reserve capacity needed. The determination of adequate reserves would enhance the efficiency and flexibility of the power system. The probabilistic methodology suggested in this paper estimates the reserve requirements as a function of historical data and estimates the incremental increase in reserve requirements as the penetration level increases. Also, the paper estimates the optimal mix of spinning reserve and standing reserve to decrease the number of part-loaded power plants and accommodate more wind power, where a synchronized plant operates less efficiently when partially loaded to provide a reserve. The adopted methodology is applied to real data collected from aggregated wind farms in the period from 2015 to 2020.