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Decoupling of oil use from economic growth in Northeast China

Research for the decoupling of oil use from GDP growth has significance meaning to promotion and implementation of energy conservation in Northeast China. According to the calculation formula of decoupling index (Dr), the Dr of Northeast China are calculated respectively in 2000-2012, respectively. Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network forecasting model is established, and the accuracy of the model is verified. Using the model to predict the Dr value 2013 - 2020. The results show that: the values of Dr are greater than 0 in Northeast China, where the Jilin average annual Dr is the maximum value about 0.97. RBF neural network forecasting results shows that Dr is greater than 0 in 2013-2020, and no-decoupling state doesn’t appear.


Introduction
Northeast China is an important industrial base and source of energy in China. Northeast China GDP showed a continuous trend of rapid growth from 2000-2013, and exposed the problem that economic development depends greatly on the oil consumption [1] . Although the Northeast is the major oil product area, accounting for about 30 % of total oil production of China in 2013 [2] , but the contradiction between the growing consumer demand for oil exploration with limited capabilities are increasingly prominent [1] . So, how to break the Northeast between oil consumption and economic growth has important implications for rational optimization of energy consumption.
Environmental resource is the material basis of human survival and development. In recent years, rapid economic development brings more convenience and enjoyment, while the environment resources are facing enormous pressure and challenges [3] . The field of environment resources for the "decoupling" the problem is to carry out a lot of research scholars, such as: resource consumption [4] , land resources [5] , CO 2 emissions [6] , traffic volume [7] . However, there is little literature study on the decoupling relations of oil use and GDP growth. Therefore, this paper based on the decoupling index (D r ) calculation formula, oil use D r is calculated respectively in Northeast China from 2000-2012.
Then the D r of oil use and GDP growth are predicted by RBF neural network, and discussed predictable results. In order to providing a basis for local energy-related policy development.
(1) Resource consumption growth rate k r is: where g is the GDP growth rate, t is the decline rate of resource use per unit GDP. Then k r = 0, the formula can be obtained t k , the critical value of t: Where t k is on the threshold of resource consumption per unit of GDP decreased rate of t. When t k > t, resource consumption is an increasing state; When t k =t, the consumption remains unchanged; When t k < t, consumption is declining state. Thus the relationship, t k and t determines the decoupling between the resource consumption and GDP growth. Therefore, the definition of decoupling index D r :

Decoupling curve
Resources decoupling formula curve can be obtained by D r When g > 0, D r ≥ 1, represents the absolute state of decoupling between resource consumption and GDP; Then 0≤ D r <1 represents the relationship state; Then D r <0, the relationship in non-decoupled state.

Historical Data
According to the definition of D r formula, oil consumption, GDP and growth rate of the three provinces in Northeast China from 2000 to 2012 were collected, respectively. Among them, the oil consumption and GDP data from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook.

Forecast Model
RBF neural network is a feed-forward back-propagation network which including the input layer (input), hidden layer and output layer (output) three layers

Analysis predicted results
Respectively of the total consumption of oil and natural gas decoupling index is predicted by using RBF neural network which has been achieved forecasting accuracy in the Northeast region in 2013-2020. The predicted results are as shown in Table 1.  Table 1 shows, between 2013 to 2020, Dr of oil consumption in addition to 2019 in the absolute decoupling state, the rest of years are in state of relative decoupling. Annual D r is about 0.665, similar to the level of oil consumption decoupling in 2000 to 2012. At present, the development of the oil industry in the Northeast into mature stage, in view of a large oil field in the region and large oil refining companies and crude oil and products pipeline and other infrastructure improvement and adequate supply of oil, oil products accounted for the region's primary energy consumption structure stabilized; In addition, in the end of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, GDP growth is expected to slow down. Above is the main reason for the state to maintain the relative decoupling between oil consumption and GDP growth in the future Northeast. The prediction results of RBF neural network shown that Northeast China total oil consumption decoupling index is greater than 0 from 2013 to 2020, the proportion of oil consumption in energy consumption structure is stable. This is the main reason for the region's oil consumption decoupling in higher levels.