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Uncertainty Spillover with Social Network Knowledge

With the deepening of economic integration, it is important to study the spillover effect of macroeconomic uncertainty among regions along with social network knowledge. Based on microblog users' network connection, this paper analyzes the network factors that affect the uncertain spillover effect between regions by using ERGM. It is found that there are three peaks of uncertainty spillover effect in China, corresponding to the financial crisis in 2008, the post financial crisis in 2010 and COVID-19 in early 2020. As an effective transmission mode and a reflection of inter provincial relations, close social relationships are crucial in the study of uncertainty spillover effects. Relatively developed provinces have higher spillover effect, while relatively underdeveloped provinces are usually the recipients of uncertainty in the network. In particular, the impact of inter provincial social network on uncertainty spillover is statistically more significant than that of GDP, population, transportation and other node attributes.