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Lack of concordance of growth rates of primary and recurrent breast cancer.

The degree of concordance of growth rates of primary tumors with corresponding recurrences was investigated by using data from 184 patients with breast cancer with measurable recurrences. For conduction of this examination, the detection processes of both the primary tumor and the recurrence were explored. The probability of detection of a recurrence per unit time was found to be nearly proportional to the tumor's diameter. Approximately 60,000 cells initiated the recurrence, and the distribution of doubling times of the recurrences was exponential, with a mean of 2.1 months. The probability of detection of the primary tumor per unit time was approximately proportional to its volume. The distribution of doubling times of primary tumors was nearly exponential; from other evidence, we inferred that the mean doubling time was also close to 2.1 months. Several techniques to measure growth rate agreement between the primary and recurrent tumors within individuals were developed, and all of them yielded the result that the growth rates are nearly unrelated.