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Strengthening the effectiveness of the BTW control regime – feasibility and options

The article raises the question of the feasibility of strengthening the effectiveness of the BTW control regime and compares two different approaches to achieve this end: the proposed Compliance Protocol to the BTWC and an alternative set of measures. After outlining the conceptual framework, the article discusses the characteristics of the BTW control regime and its current level of effectiveness. It then provides an analysis of the Compliance Protocol negotiated from 1995–2001 and the increase of regime effectiveness from the Protocol, had it been agreed upon. The impact on regime effectiveness of an alternative set of measures, based on proposals by the US government is assessed subsequently. It is concluded that the Protocol would have led to a greater increase in regime effectiveness. The alternative measures either do not lead to rules and procedures for state behaviour that are linked to and thus do not support the norms of the regime, or threaten to lead to an unequal regime strengthening that could lead to polarization among regime members and fragmentation of the overall BTW control regime.