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Monitoring Air Pollution Impacts of COVID-19 in India

Objective: Air quality is an important issue that is affecting human health, flora, fauna, and ecosystems. Vehicular pollution, demolition, construction, and population burst are the main reasons for degrading air quality. Hence, the main aim of the study is to monitor, analyse, as well as predict the air pollution component i.e., particulate matter before and after the lockdown of COVID-19 in various Indian cities of India. Methods: The data collected is from Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) of India from 2015-2020 for the pollutants such as PM2.5 and PM10. Pre-Processing techniques such as removal of null values using MICE imputer on multivariate data, merging the columns, and minmax feature scaling is applied. The cities are classified and further subdivided based on Terrain (coastal, mountainous and plains) and based on Population (highly populated and less populated). The study predicts the values for Particulate matter by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model using optimal hyperparameters for better prediction. Results: The presented system for Air Quality Index (AQI) values includes 2020 data, and the forecasted results were highly optimistic. Further, this scenario is pure since 2020 is an outlier. A better prediction may be possible by skipping 2020. The performance of the forecasting model is calculated by the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) error which may help control the degraded air quality. The predicted AQI values for the year 2021 are predicted through SARIMA and produced 18.301 RMSE value for Lucknow and 46.198 for Delhi. Original Article 1 VIT Bhopal University, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Bhopal, India 2 VIT Bhopal University, School of Advance Sciences (Mathematics), Bhopal, India 3 Istanbul Aydin University, Computer Engineering Department, Istanbul, Turkey 4 Istanbul Arel University, Computer Science Department, Istanbul, Turkey 5 Istanbul Aydin University, Computer Engineering Department, Istanbul, Turkey * Corresponding author E-mail: mimanshaagrawal1998@gmail.com; ORCID: 0000-0001-7545-390X Mamta Agrawal: mamta.agrawal@vitbhopal.ac.in; ORCID: 0000-0001-5738-3450, Zafer Aslan: zaferaslan@aydin.edu.tr; ORCID: 0000-0001-7707-7370, İlknur Dönmez: ilknurdonmez@aydin.edu.tr; ORCID: 0000-0002-8344-1180, Ali Güneş: aligunes@aydin.edu.tr; ORCID: 0000-0003-0220-5475 Received: 01 August 2021 Revised: 05 October 2021 Accepted: 10 October 2021 DOI: 10.17932/EJOH.2020.022/ejoh_v02i2001 93 EURAS Journal of Health Volume 2 Issue 2 December 2021 (93103) Conclusion: COVID-19 restricted human activities in 2020, and the air quality level significantly improved. This paper presents a model to forecast AQI values in various Indian cities for the coming year by considering surge reduction in various pollutant levels. In Future work, a hybrid approach of models can be followed to make predictions.