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Predicting potential distribution and evaluating biotic interactions of threatened species: a case study of Discocactus ferricola (Cactaceae)

Abstract: Information on distribution, number of populations, and biotic interactions are essential for assessing the threat status of species and to establish more effective conservation initiatives. Ecological niche modeling have been successfully applied to identify the potential distribution, even for rare species that have few recorded occurrence points. In this study, we evaluated the potential distribution and additionally generated the first data on the reproductive biology of Discocactus ferricola, due to its degree of threat and the absence of ecological data for that species. The potential distribution map highlighted areas with higher probability of occurrence of D. ferricola on the Residual Plateau of Maciço do Urucum located in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The occurrence of D. ferricola populations was limited to outcrops of flat ironstone (cangas) distributed in patches across the landscape, increasing the chances of serious threats, such as habitat loss due to mining and species extraction. We also found that D. ferricola is xenogamous. Therefore, in situ conservation actions must prioritize the maintenance of interactions with pollinators by preserving the flora and fauna of rocky outcrops and adjacent forests in areas of greater environmental suitability for D. ferricola. Our study highlights the use of ecological niche modeling and data on biotic interactions to evaluate species potential distribution, to guide new sampling efforts, and to assist conservation and management initiatives.