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EP2: The semiconductor industry in 2025

The historical predictability of Moore's Law as a law of economics has enabled the semiconductor industry to not only achieve extraordinary innovation, but overtime has redefined how we build complex electronic systems. We have developed an eco-system of specialized entities to solve specific challenges such as Equipment Development, Foundry Services, Design, EDA, Software, and Consumer Services. While more specialization was an undisputed trend of the past, we are beginning to see hardware companies becoming less specialized - manufacturing companies entering design, design companies enter services to name a few. This change allows for larger fraction of the revenue pie to belong to one entity and perhaps even allowing for recurring revenue to a hardware company thus making economics sustainable. Before the supposed physical limits are reached, what is the right approach that will win and allow Moore's Law of economics to continue its self fulfilling prophecy? More vertically integrated companies that enable recurring revenue? Or more horizontally integrated companies that focus on specialized innovation?