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Disclose Whatever You Have? The Quantity Effects of Earnings Forecasts

This paper analyzes capital market consequences of deferred management earnings forecasts of Japanese publicly listed firms in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011. Employing the Peak Ground Acceleration at the firms’ headquarters as an instrument for the deferral, we find that non-guiding firms’ information asymmetry increases, while firm value decreases. The findings in context of the Japanese institutional setting suggest that earnings forecasts provide an important information signal to investors, even if information precision is very low.