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An expected decrease in the incidence of autosomal recessive disease due to decreasing consanguineous marriages

A recent decline in consanguineous marriages in Japan should have resulted in a decrease in the incidence of autosomal recessive disorders. Theoretical estimates were made of the chronological decrease in the incidence using a formula for Hardy‐Weinberg expectation in a partially inbred population and applying appropriate consanguinity rates, taken from the literature, during the period from 1942 to 1983. Theoretically estimated also, using Nei's extended Dahlberg's formula, is a chronological decrease in the proportion of first‐cousin marriages among the parents of affected individuals.