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Implementing the Hedge Strategy in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

The stability of nuclear deterrence is threatened when potential shifts in the technology and security environments can compromise key force attributes, such as the ability of nuclear forces to survive an adversary’s first strike. Strategies for hedging against uncertainty seek to preserve effective deterrence when technical problems arise or when adversaries develop new military capabilities and forms of aggression. The latest U.S. nuclear weapons policy continues and expands upon previous efforts to maintain sufficient flexibility in U.S. nuclear force structure to sustain key force attributes in the face of technological or geopolitical challenges. An attributebased approach to hedge planning allows for analysis and comparison of various nuclear force structure alternatives. This analytic approach supports the Trump Administration’s finding that measured enhancement, rather than an expansive program to develop new weapon types, is sufficient to shore up the flexibility of U.S. deterrent forces.