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South America's Commodities Boom: Developmental Opportunity or Path Dependent Reversion?

Abstract From 2003 through 2008 South America's terms of trade moved strongly in favour of raw materials, and commodity prices remained very high through early 2010, potentially challenging the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Three possible results of the boom are analyzed: (1) a staples- or mineral-led development strategy creating linkages to overcome the enclave effects of agro-mineral export structures; (2) a transition strategy wherein ground rents form the basis for expanding national innovation systems enabling Latin America to move beyond raw material/cheap labour export dependence; (3) a return to the nineteenth-century pattern of resource and export dependence where an agro-mineral rentier/oligopolistic elite dominates production.