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The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for the United States in 2030

This report focuses on passenger travel (intercity rail, highway travel, public transit, domestic air travel) in an attempt to understand the factors involved in predicting mobility in the United States 17 years into the future. It uses scenario planning as a tool to examine these factors. Five areas of influence were chosen to be investigated, in terms of their projected trends and impacts on mobility in the United States in 2030. These factors are energy, technology, transportation financing and supply, economics, and demographics. It is concluded that the future of mobility in 2030, for the United States, is not very clear. Three significant uncertainties were pinpointed by the study: the amount of highway expenditures and revenues, the path of environmental regulation, and oil prices. The most crucial variable in predicting mobility in the United States in 2030 seems to be the price of oil.