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How to Win at the Track

Gambling on horse races is done according to a pari-mutuel betting system. All of the money is pooled, the track removes its take, and whatever is left is divided among the winning bettors. A consequence of this is that the final odds are not known at the time of betting, since later bettors could influence the odds. Usually, however, estimated odds are posted based on the money wagered so far[4]. Another consequence of pari-mutuel betting is that all bets have a negative expected value if one uses the “market” odds posted by the track. This negative expected value is a consequence of the track take. Thus, to develop any successful gambling model of horse racing, one must develop better estimates of the horses win probabilities than the posted odds[2]. The other necessary component of a horse race betting system involves figuring out exactly how to bet. This sounds like an easy task, but there are many different possible types of bets. One can wager on a horse finishing first (win), first or second (place), first, second, or third (show), as well as many other bets involving multiple horses (quinella, trifecta, exacta, superfecta) and multiple races (daily double, pick 3, pick 6) [1]. Determining the optimal strategy in the face of these complex betting choices is beyond the scope of this project, so I will only consider simple, single-horse and single-race bets. These two components would comprise a complete horse race betting system. This project, however, is concerned only with the first part of this system: developing a method to predict the winners of horse races.