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Preoperative body mass index-to-prognostic nutritional index ratio predicts pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND
Estimating or scoring the risk of post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) may help with selection of high-risk patients and individualized patient consent. However, there are no simple and reliable preoperative predictors of POPF used in daily clinical practice.


METHODS
We investigated the utility of body mass index-to-prognostic nutritional index (BMI/PNI) ratio as a preoperative marker to predict the development of POPF in 87 patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.


RESULTS
The overall incidence of clinical (grade B/C) POPF was 17% (15 of 87 patients). Among various pre-, intra-, and post-operative variables analyzed, higher BMI and lower PNI were identified as independent predictors for POPF by multivariate analysis. We therefore investigated BMI/PNI ratio as a preoperative predictor for POPF. BMI/PNI ratio was significantly higher in patients with POPF than in those without POPF (0.54 vs. 0.45, P=0.0007). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated a fair capability of BMI/PNI ratio to predict the occurrence of POPF (area under the ROC curve 0.781). With a cut-off value of 0.5, the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of BMI/PNI ratio to predict POPF was 73%, 74%, and 74%, respectively. In particular, when restricted to a subgroup of elderly (≥75 years old) male patients, the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of BMI/PNI ratio was 100%, 100%, and 100%, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
The BMI/PNI ratio is a simple preoperative marker to predict the occurrence of POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy.