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Methodological problems in the analysis of temporal covariation between alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease.

Summary 
The possibility is discussed of testing the hypothesis of protective effects of alcohol against ischemic heart disease on time series data. It is argued that in order to obtain meaningful results, it is necessary to filter the data (remove trends) before correlating per capita alcohol consumption and mortality rates. In Norway, both alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease mortality have been increasing, giving the impression of positive relation between the variables. However, the filtered data shows signs of a negative relation, as predicted by the protection hypothesis. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are discussed.