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Surface Energy Balance of the NCEP MRF and NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis in Antarctic Latitudes during FROST

Abstract The surface energy budget in Antarctic latitudes is evaluated for the medium-range numerical weather forecasts produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and for the NCEP–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis project during the winter, spring, and summer special observing periods (SOPs) of the Antarctic First Regional Observing Study of Troposphere project. A significant change in the energy balance resulted from an extensive model update beginning with the forecasts initialized on 11 January 1995 during the summer SOP. Both the forecasts and the reanalysis include significant errors in the surface energy balance over Antarctica. The errors often tend to cancel and thus produce reasonable surface temperature fields. General errors include downward longwave radiation about 30–50 W m−2 too small. Lower than observed cloudiness contributes to this error and to excessive downward shortwave radiation at the surface. The model albedo over Antarctica, about 75%, i...