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­­­­­­­­­A Hypothesis for Experience Curves of Related Technologies with an Application To Wind Energy

We develop a hypothesis around the impact of a related technology on the development of an experience curve. We explore the implications of this hypothesis in the case of wind energy, which has been historically developed onshore and is currently experiencing rapid growth in deployment offshore. We look at the impact of modeling offshore wind as (1) a fully new technology, (2) a direct offshoot of onshore wind, and (3) a hybrid. Focusing on the levelized cost of electricity of offshore wind, we find that assumptions about its relatedness to onshore wind are equally important as assumptions about future growth scenarios. This research highlights a previously neglected factor in experience curve analysis, which may be especially important for technologies, such as offshore wind energy, that are expected to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation.