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A New Indicator of Coalition Size: Tests Against Standard Regime-Type Indicators

A new measure for selectorate’s theory central concept, winning coalition size, is developed using indicators developed by the V-Dem project (Coppedge et al., 2021). To demonstrate the measure’s efficacy, we examine its ability to account for government provision of public and private goods, a central prediction in selection theory. The winning coalition measure is compared to eight widely-used indicators of regime type in analyses of 30 measures of government policy provision. Based on Vuong tests and Akaike information criteria the new measure generally outperforms the alternative regime measures whether the assessment is across all regimes, within non-democratic regimes or within democratic settings. The new indicator provides an improved tool for testing the nuances of selectorate theory.