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Presidential Leadership of the Tone of News Coverage and Public Opinion on Iraq

Much research questions the president’s ability to lead public opinion. Yet most of this research does not directly assess how news coverage might influence presidential leadership of public opinion. If presidents can affect the tone of news coverage, then presidents may be able to indirectly lead public opinion. We argue that public exposure to the president’s policy positions through news media increases public access to the president’s positions. This exposure increases the president’s influence over public opinion. To examine whether the tone of presidential rhetoric affects the tone of news coverage and public opinion, we analyze an original dataset of presidential speeches, media coverage, and public opinion on Iraq from 1990-2008. Our findings suggest that analysis of presidential leadership of public opinion should carefully consider indirect leadership effects through the media. Doing so may lead to more favorable assessments of the president’s ability to influence public opinion through speechmaking.