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Role of supraglacial lakes in recession of Himalayan glaciers: A case study of Dudh Koshi basin, Nepal

Abstract Climate change has been adversely affecting glaciers causing them to advance and recession worldwide. Existing studies have primarily attributed temperature as the leading factor causing glacier recession. However, detailed studies that investigate effect of other factors like presence of debris cover, slope, and contact with water bodies are still scarce. This research, thus investigated the role of supraglacial lakes in recession of debris-covered glaciers (DCG). Such glaciers were studied since these lakes are found in debris-covered glaciers only. For this purpose the interannual variation in area of supraglacial lakes of Dudh Koshi basin was computed to test the hypothesis that these lakes play a significant role in glacier recession. Supraglacial lakes were delineated using Google Earth Pro at five year intervals to assess interannual variation in lake area. Slope, elevation and change in supraglacial lake area were the predictors influencing average decadal change in area of glaciers. Two models prepared using multiple linear regression in Excel were compared. The first model used elevation and slope as predictors while the second model used change in supraglacial lake area as the additional predictor. The second model had a higher coefficient of determination (R square) and Adjusted R-square values of 99 % and 96 % compared to the first model. Further test statistics from Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) results were compared to test the hypothesis. Moreover the Root mean square error (RMSE) of second model was also less than the first one. Hence both the regression statistics and RMSE confirmed that change in area of supraglacial lakes was an important factor that influences overall recession of debris-covered glaciers. Nevertheless, use of high spatial and temporal resolution imageries along-with increase in number of glaciers sampled should be incorporated in future studies to ensure robust outcomes. Thus this research can bolster the overall understanding between glacier and glacial lake dynamics which will improve the resilience of downstream inhabitants from climate induced hazards, such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).