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What Does it Take to Make Surprises Less Surprising?

Abstract It is not unusual for public management systems to be ‘caught by surprise’ when events unfold which had not been anticipated in policy processes. An empirical example from New Zealand is used to show the contribution complexity theory has to make to helping public management scholars and practitioners understand the origin of surprises and anticipate them. This illustrative case identifies a number of unforeseen events in tertiary education, their origins and effects through a complexity-informed lens. These self-organizing changes can be the source of unwanted surprises (unknown unknowns) which require complexity-compatible approaches to their anticipation and management.