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Spatial Uncertainty and Spatial Dominance in Interaction Modelling: A Theoretical Perspective on Spatial Competition

In this paper a theoretical index of spatial uncertainty is defined, which measures the degree of diversity faced by potential movers in a destination choice set. As a result of variations in attractiveness and distance, destinations are considered to exert varying degrees of spatial dominance on origins and to compete on that basis for the attention of would-be movers. It is hypothesized that at origins where dominances are more uniform, there is ‘less to choose’ among destinations and it is more difficult to predict accurately spatial interaction (and vice versa). The basic concept put forth is that spatial uncertainty and the spatial interaction-model performance are related to the relative location of origins with respect to destinations. The empirical analysis employs data on recreational day travel and population migration.