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Global mitigation potential of carbon stored in harvested wood products

Significance Carbon stored within harvested wood products (HWPs) may be a tool to mitigate climate change, yet its global potential as a carbon sink is unknown and difficult to assess. We show that the global HWP pool was a net sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)⋅y−1 in 2015 and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2030, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial process emissions, but only in some countries, and the global contribution is minor, even in a scenario of favorable conditions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn a country’s HWP pool into a net source of carbon. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving market forces. Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for 180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)⋅y−1 in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2030 under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2065) under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is <1% of global emissions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn the HWP pool into a carbon source either long-term—e.g., the collapse of the USSR—or short-term—e.g., the US economic recession of 2008/09. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving market forces.