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Dynamic-MFA examination of Chilean housing stock: long-term changes and earthquake damage

The dynamics and metabolism of the built environment are important for understanding the construction, renovation and demolition activities that characterize its long-term physical development. Previous research on building stock development is limited, particularly for developing countries. As one of the most seismically active countries in the world, Chile's built environment is constantly subjected to losses. This study included earthquake vulnerability and damage in a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) of the Chilean housing stock. Stock and flows of residential floor area were modelled using population and life style parameters. Demolition was modelled assuming a constant demolition rate. By characterizing the building stock according to vulnerability classes and establishing a mass balance per class, the effects of different typology distributions on the overall damage to the stock caused by earthquakes could be assessed. Scenarios with different trends in typology distribution for new construction and renovation suggest that significant potential exists for reducing future earthquake damage in the Chilean housing stock. This is best achieved by gradually reducing the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes. Legislation, building standards and financial instruments could be used to ensure such reductions in earthquake damage and thereby provide socio-economic benefits in the future.