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Long-Term and Short-Term Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis

This study presents some new empirical evidence on the determination of interest rates in the United States. The empirical results generally support the view that fiscal deficits raise real interest rates. The paper offers various reasons why several previous empirical studies have failed to find a significant positive effect of budget deficits on domestic interest rates in the United States. In addition, it discusses both theoretical considerations and other empirical evidence that suggest, that neither the response of private saving nor international capital mobility prevents budget deficits from raising interest rates.