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The effect of police paramilitary unit raids on crime at micro-places in Buffalo, New York

This study examines the deterrent effect of the short-term application of police paramilitary units. The police in Buffalo conducted 39 police paramilitary unit raids during a two-day period in 2012. It is hypothesized that if police paramilitary units are used then there will be a reduction in calls for service, Part 1 crimes and drug arrests. The effect of the police paramilitary unit raids at micro-place street units was estimated by drawing a comparable sample of control units via propensity score modeling. A fixed effects negative binomial panel model was estimated for counts 35 weeks before and 35 weeks after the intervention. Calls for service and drug arrests increased in the treated areas compared with controls. There is slight evidence of a deterrent effect for Part 1 crimes in the two weeks after the intervention. The null findings suggest that, at best, police paramilitary unit raids have a short-term deterrent effect on crime.