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Epidemic-resistant configurations for intrusion detection systems

Cyber attacks are a critical threat to government infrastructure, commercial enterprises and personal devices. When belligerents attack cyber systems, they need to spread laterally to reach high value targets and communicate with their command and control sites. Intuitively, a layered defense including intrusion detection systems will limit the adversary's exploitation of the target. We apply lessons learned from epidemiology stretching back almost a century to derive a mathematical model to guide investment and configuration decisions related to intrusion detection. To validate this closed form mathematical model, we performed discrete time simulations covering the relevant ranges of several parameters. The results from these simulations validate our closed form mathematical model, which indicates it is a credible decision support tool for cyber security managers.