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Probability Model of Riding Behavior Choice of Two-Wheelers under the Influence of the Subsidence Area of a Manhole Cover

To objectively evaluate the influence of the subsidence area of a manhole cover on the riding behavior of two-wheeler riders in urban bicycle lanes, a probability model of riding behavior of two-wheeler riders was established. The main factors influencing the probability of riding behaviors under the condition of the subsidence area of a manhole cover are investigated. Based on the field data of 10 survey sections in Guilin, the regression models between the selected probability of independent riding behavior, combined riding behavior and the main influencing factors are respectively established by using the multiple regression analysis method. The results show that the selected probabilities of deceleration riding behavior and original-speed riding behavior have a linear regression relationship with the subsidence depth of the manhole cover and the lane integrity. The subsidence depth of manhole covers is positively correlated with the probability of deceleration riding behavior and negatively correlated with the probability of original-speed riding behavior; lane integrity is positively correlated with both the probability of deceleration riding behavior and the probability of original-speed riding behavior. The data goodness-of-fit value for the relevant influence factors in the two models is 0.941 and 0.900, respectively. The probability of acceleration riding behavior has a linear regression relationship with the lane integrity and section flow. Lane integrity is negatively correlated with the probability of acceleration riding behavior and positively correlated with section flow. The data goodness-of-fit value for the relevant influence factors is 0.821. The probabilities of straight riding behavior and detour riding behavior have a linear regression relationship with the subsidence depth of manhole covers and the minor width of the flat part. The subsidence depth of a manhole cover is negatively correlated with the probability of straight riding behavior and positively correlated with the probability of detour riding behavior. The minor width of flat part is negatively correlated with the probability of straight riding behavior and positively correlated with the probability of detour riding behavior. The data goodness-of-fit value for the relevant influence factors in the two models is 0.601 and 0.603, respectively. The results provide the theoretical basis for the evaluation of the severity and optimization design of the subsidence of manhole covers in urban bicycle lanes.