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Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative

: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, and "unimpeded trade" is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatio-temporal characteristics of international trade between China and Pakistan for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along CPEC. This study examined the spatio-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and Pakistan, and analyzed its influencing factors using a stochastic frontier gravity model. The findings of this research are as follows: First, the scale of China-Pakistan trade is small but growing fast; China has trade surplus that continues to increase, and Pakistan shows low status in the global trade network of China; in China-Pakistan trade, China mainly exports capital-intensive products such as machinery and electrical equipment, and imports textile raw materials, textile products and other primary products, and labor- intensive products. Second, significant spatial differences exist in the trade scale and commodity structure of provinces in China with Pakistan; notably, eastern coastal provinces in China have significant advantages in terms of trade scale with Pakistan, while western provinces, except Xinjiang, have limited trade with Pakistan. Third, most of China's provinces have undergone significant changes in the structure of trade commodities, among which provinces with diverse commodity structures, such as Xinjiang and Shandong, have relatively little change. Fourth, higher economic development level and larger market size of provinces in China significantly promote China- Pakistan trade; shipping distance shows negative impact on China-Pakistan trade; shared border provides good conditions for cross-border trade; the construction of railway and shipping ports has shown a significant promoting effect on trade. Fifth, great trade potential still exists between provinces in China and Pakistan, especially in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions.