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A Time-Integrated Index for Flood Risk to Resistance Capacity

The lack of open spaces and the intense land use occupation in flood plains makes floods in consolidated urban areas difficult to mitigate. In these areas, setting a standard pre-defined return period for projects can limit and even preclude flood mitigation actions. However, it is possible to propose flood control alternatives that are compatible with available spaces. Thus, determining how much the original risk is reduced and how significant the residual risk can be becomes the main target. In this context, a time-integrated index for risk to resistance capacity is proposed to address these questions. This index correlates the exposure of buildings and urban infrastructure to the hazard of a given flood and is then evaluated over a project horizon through a sequence of events. The proposed index is applied to the Canal do Mangue catchment, a highly urbanized watershed located in Rio de Janeiro. The results demonstrate the difficulty of designing flood mitigation measures in extremely occupied watersheds and the importance of evaluating residual risks associated with proposed projects. As an additional result, a scenario with concentrated measures is compared to another with distributed interventions, evidencing the greater coverage of the latter.