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Spatial, climate, and ploidy factors drive genomic diversity and resilience in the widespread grass Themeda triandra

Fragmented grassland ecosystems, and the species that shape them, are under immense pressure. Restoration and management strategies should include genetic diversity and adaptive capacity to improve success but these data are generally unavailable. Therefore, we use the foundational grass, Themeda triandra, to test how spatial, environmental, and ploidy factors shape patterns of genetic variation. We used reduced-representation genome sequencing on 487 samples from 52 locations to answer fundamental questions about how the distribution of genomic diversity and ploidy polymorphism supports adaptation to harsher climates. We explicitly quantified isolation-by-distance (IBD), isolation-by-environment (IBE), and predicted population genomic vulnerability in 2070. We found that a majority (54%) of the genomic variation could be attributed to IBD, while 22% of the genomic variation could be explained by four climate variables showing IBE. Results indicate that heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability across populations are due to genetic variation, multiple climate factors, and ploidy polymorphism, which lessened genomic vulnerability in the most susceptible populations. These results indicate that restoration and management of T. triandra should incorporate knowledge of genomic diversity and ploidy polymorphisms to increase the likelihood of population persistence and restoration success in areas that will become hotter and more arid.