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Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re‐forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

This study examines the performance of malaria‐relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re‐forecasts for sub‐Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model‐derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.