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A Bayesian approach to the classification of the Turkic languages

Despite more than 150 years of research, the internal structure of the Turkic language family remains a controversial issue. In this study, I employ the Bayesian phylogenetic approach in order to provide an independent verification of the contemporary views on the Turkic linguistic history. The data underlying the study are Turkic basic vocabularies, which are resistant to replacement and likely to reflect the genealogical relationships among the Turkic languages. The method tested in the chapter is based on the strict clock model of evolution, which assumes that relevant changes occur at the same rate at every branch of the family. This study supports the widespread view that the binary split between Bulgharic and Common Turkic was the earliest split in the Turkic family. The model further replicates most of the conventional sub-groups within the Common Turkic branch. Based on a Bayesian analysis, the time-depth of Proto-Turkic is estimated to be around 2119 years BP, which is in accordance with the traditional estimates of 2000–2500 years BP.