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Probabilistic day-ahead CHP operation scheduling

The production scheduling of combined heat and power plants is a challenging task. The need for simultaneous production of heat and power in combination with the technical constraints results in a problem with high complexity. Furthermore, the operation in the electricity markets environment means that every decision is made with unknown electricity prices for the produced electric energy. In order to compensate the increased risk of operating under such uncertain conditions, tools like stochastic programming have been developed. In this paper, the short-term operation scheduling model of a CHP system in the day-ahead electricity market is mathematically described and solved. The problem is formulated in a stochastic programming framework where the uncertain parameters of day-ahead electricity prices and the heat demand are incorporated into the problem in the form of scenarios. A case study is also performed with a CHP system operating in a district heating network and the value of heat storage capacity is estimated.