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Uncertainty and the Certainty Bias

All humans are afflicted with a set of peculiar tendencies in perceiving and thinking that, collectively, create an illusion that their judgments and beliefs are correct. These tendencies are the certainty bias, the overconfidence bias, and the optimism bias. This chapter discusses the various views of uncertainty in human judgment and the mind’s unexpected adaptation to it in the form of unwarranted certainty and confidence. These concepts are applied to clinical assessment. The concept of irreducible uncertainty is explained, and its pragmatic relevance to clinical judgment and decision making is discussed. Key factors contributing to irreducible uncertainty in clinical care are considered.