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Ethnic Rebellion against the State: Perils of the Periphery

Despite extensive inquiries into the causes of civil war within and across countries, there are relatively few tested theories explaining why some ethnic groups, and not others, become involved in these conflicts. I argue that the historical manner in which Africa developed, both politically and economically, placed certain ethnic groups at greater risk of rebelling against the state by virtue of their distant geographic location relative to the center of power. These peripheral groups are more prone to rebel principally because of four factors: (1) the state’s decreased ability to monitor these societies; (2) their lack of economic development relative to other groups in the country; (3) a lower probability of having one of their own hold national power; and (4) their proximity to international neighbors who are willing to finance and supply insurgencies across their borders. This paper uses an original data set with the ethnic group as the unit of analysis across 48 African countries to study the determinants of ethnic rebellion from 1980-2006. Data on these groups’ natural geography and resources, political representation, and economic status are used to test observable implications of the argument presented, as well as alternate theories.