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Multimodal Evacuation Simulation and Scenario Analysis in Dense Urban Area

Simulation is an effective tool for estimating evacuation times, identifying system bottlenecks, and evaluating traffic management strategies under a variety of operational and behavioral assumptions. The development of a multimodal simulation model for modeling evacuation activities in Center City, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is presented. The model applied a dynamic sequential assignment method to simulate the movement and interactions of pedestrians, private vehicles, and buses while considering the variation of evacuation demand and network conditions during evacuation operations. The model was used to perform scenario analysis and provide inputs to update current evacuation plans. This study shares the experience and findings from the Philadelphia study in modeling multimodal evacuations in dense urban areas.