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Travel time reliability with boundedly rational travelers

ABSTRACT This paper presents a definition of boundedly rational confidence level (BRCL) which is the probability that a trip arrives within the shortest travel time budget plus the acceptable travel time difference (i.e. boundedly rational threshold). Using the method of data fitting, boundedly rational threshold is estimated. Then, a reliability-based boundedly rational user equilibrium (R-BRUE) model that explicitly considers both travel time reliability and travelers’ bounded rationality in the route choice decision process is proposed. This new model hypothesizes that for each origin–destination (O–D) pair no traveler can improve his/her BRCL by unilaterally changing routes. A route-based quasi-method of a successive average algorithm is developed to solve the R-BRUE model. Numerical examples illustrate the essential ideas of the proposed model and the applicability of the proposed solution algorithm.