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The Predictable Outcome of Speculative House Price Peaks

Some 5 years ago we published predictions for property prices in two areas which had experienced an almost 3-fold multiplication of real prices during the previous decade. These areas were Ireland and the UK on the one hand and the west of the United States on the other hand. In the present paper we compare our predictions with observed prices. The differences turn out to be less than 15%. At this point it becomes important to understand why these predictions worked. The discussion highlights four criteria which define the field of applicability of our methodology. In order to test these criteria we discuss three new cases, namely Paris, Beijing and Seoul. In the case of Paris we give price projections for 2012–2022.