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Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment

Abstract. We present a new method to generate spatially coherent river discharge peaks
over multiple river basins, which can be used for continental event-based
probabilistic flood risk assessment. We first extract extreme events from
river discharge time series data over a large set of locations by applying
new peak identification and peak-matching methods. Then we describe these
events using the discharge peak at each location while accounting for the
fact that the events do not affect all locations. Lastly we fit the
state-of-the-art multivariate extreme value distribution to the discharge
peaks and generate from the fitted model a large catalogue of spatially
coherent synthetic event descriptors. We demonstrate the capability of this
approach in capturing the statistical dependence over all considered
locations. We also discuss the limitations of this approach and investigate
the sensitivity of the outcome to various model parameters.
