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New Ways of Looking at Sector Demand and Sector Alerts

This report presents the latest results of research conducted at the Volpe Center on improving air traffic demand predictions and enhancing the Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) Monitor/Alert function for identifying potential congestion at National Airspace System (NAS) elements such as airports, sectors and fixes. New approaches are presented for improving the way that TFMS determines if a sector is alerted. The deterministic demand pattern approach as well as the probabilistic weighted average approach have the advantage of being a smaller change from the traditional and long accepted way of doing business, while the fully probabilistic approach has the advantage of providing a more satisfactory way of looking at demand. The Federal Aviation Administration can now compare these approaches to the current approach and determine which is more attractive for the long run. If one of the new approaches is deemed desirable, additional work would be needed to flesh the proposals out into fully operational tools.