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ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS PROMOTING TORNADOGENESIS USING NCDC STORM EVENTS AND IGRA DATA

Official tornado reports from the National Climatic Data Center's Storm Events Database and radiosonde sounding data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive were gathered to analyze linear correlations between various sounding parameters and tornadogenesis. Proximity was defined based on previous studies as a tornado occurring within 200km and three hours of radiosonde release. For each sounding, a total of 35 parameters were computed, and counts of the number and intensity of tornadoes occurring in proximity to each observed sounding were taken. Only 00Z soundings taken in proximity to at least one tornado were considered. Low cloud bases, thermodynamic instability, and high helicity and shear values are shown to be correlated with tornadogenesis, in agreement with past literature. Helicity and shear were found to be the best discriminators between soundings taken in proximity to one or more strong tornadoes and those taken in proximity to only weak tornadoes. The results of this research suggest that the most-unstable parcel lifted condensation level is the most useful approximation to cloud base height in forecasting tornadoes. An experimental parameter that reflects the average instability of parcels within the effective inflow layer shows potential to be an effective tornado forecasting aid. Additionally, a new composite parameter was developed and verified using multivariate linear regression that appears to be strongly correlated with tornadogenesis.-4