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A Methodological Aproach to the Determination of the Future Electrical Spatial Demand in Electric Distribution Companies in Ecuador

This paper describes a novel methodology that focuses on the determination of the coincident electric demand forecast for small areas and its impact on the demand of substations for the maximum demand of the system. It takes into account the relation between geo-referenced variables of consumption, electrical inventory and socioeconomic information with electric demand. The approach makes use of a multi-objective optimization algorithm with logistic adjustment in the small areas that belong to homogeneous conglomerates that were obtained through geographically weighted regression. The objectives are to minimize the incompatibility of historical demand and the future demand mismatch. Finally, the methodology is applied in the service area of the Quito Electric Company. With the use of the results obtained in this work, those responsible for the planning of this company have redefined the Expansion Plan in such a way that the resources are aimed to the places where demand growth requires it.