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The Age Distribution of Type-Specific High-Risk Human Papillomavirus Incidence in Two Population-Based Screening Trials

Background: Age- and type-specific high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) incidence estimates in screen-eligible women are relevant from a public health perspective because they provide an indication of the effect of vaccination on the occurrence of screen-positives in HPV-based screening. However, limited data from women over 25 years of age are available. Methods: In 24,105 hrHPV-negative women participating in Dutch (Population-Based Screening Study Amsterdam: POBASCAM) and Italian (New Technologies for Cervical Cancer: NTCC) population-based randomized controlled screening trials the age- and type-specific distribution of incident hrHPV infections detected at the next screening round was assessed. HPV types were grouped into vaccine (bivalent: HPV16/18; polyvalent HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58) and nonvaccine types. Results: The incidence of screen-detected hrHPV among women ages 29 to 56 years was 2.54% (95% confidence interval, 2.30–2.78) in POBASCAM and 2.77% (2.36–3.19) in NTCC. In both studies, the incidence of bivalent, polyvalent, and nonpolyvalent infections decreased with age (P < 0.0001). Among women with incident infection(s), vaccine-type positivity changed quadratically with age, in particular for the polyvalent vaccine (P values: POBASCAM: bivalent 0.264, polyvalent 0.038; NTCC bivalent 0.039, polyvalent 0.005). However, more than 20% and 50% of women with incident hrHPV were positive for bivalent and polyvalent vaccine types, respectively, in all ages in both studies. Conclusions: We observed decreasing age trends of hrHPV vaccine and nonvaccine type incidences and age-related differences in the vaccine-type positivity among women with incident infections. Most importantly, hrHPV infections continued to be detected in all ages and the contribution of vaccine types remained substantial. Impact: Our results indicate a considerable reduction of new hrHPV infections in vaccinated cohorts, ensuing revision of screening guidelines. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(1); 111–8. ©2014 AACR.