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Financial consequences from smoking‐related diseases in middle‐income countries: Evidence and lessons from Mexico

Middle‐income countries are experiencing a significant growth of tobacco consumption‐related diseases, while their health systems lack the financial capacity to face them. Existing studies provide a general economic measurement of the problem but give no detailed evidence on the actual financial needs. The aim of this study was to measure the health care costs and financial consequences of the epidemiological changes related to tobacco consumption. A time‐series analysis for 2000 to 2016 was carried out in a national reference hospital in Mexico. We developed probabilistic models following the Box‐Jenkins methodology to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. Comparing the epidemiological and economic burden in 2017 vs. 2019, there is a 20% to 90% increase in expected cases depending of the disease (p