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Wireless Network Capacity Investment

This paper applies modern financial option valuation methods to the problem of new wireless network capacity investment decision timing. In particular, given a cluster of base stations (with a certain traffic capacity per base station), we determine when it is optimal to increase capacity for each of the base stations contained in the cluster. We express this in terms of the fraction of total cluster capacity in use, i.e. we calculate the optimal time to upgrade in terms of the ratio of observed usage to existing capacity. We study the optimal decision problem of adding new capacity in the presence of stochastic wireless traffic for services. We develop a four factor algorithm that captures all of the constraints of wireless network management, based on a real options formulation. We study the upgrade decision for different upgrade decision intervals (e.g. monthly, quarterly, etc.), and we investigate the effect of a safety level (i.e. the maximum allowed capacity used in practice on a daily basis—which differs from the theoretical maximum).