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Machakos Project studies. Agents affecting health of mother and child in a rural area of Kenya. XIII. Spatial contagion in measles epidemics.

The Machakos Project has yielded data by which it is possible to analyse spatial aspects of contagion in measles epidemics. Problems of geographical scale and interaction patterns occlude the spatial factor and rather different spectra of outbreaks were seen when the data are analysed at sub-location level. The likely patterns of spatial contagion are indicated and the need for smaller-scale study is pointed out. The role of secondary infection is considered and two proposed approaches to mathematical simulation are briefly discussed.