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Efficacy Assessments as Predictors of Uncertainty Preferences

Abstract. Background: Health challenges can cause feelings of uncertainty that individuals intend to reduce, increase, or maintain. Those goals are connected to different information seeking and avoidance behaviors, building four uncertainty preferences. Aims: We aim to understand what drives people to seek or avoid information through a more differentiated look at the underlying uncertainty preferences and their determinants. Our starting point to explain different uncertainty preferences are stable, individual traits determining individuals’ efficacy assessments. Method: We conducted a secondary analysis of an online survey among the German public in a sample with stratified demographic characteristics ( N = 3,000). The questionnaire measured different uncertainty preferences as well as coping efficacies and communication efficacy. Regression analyses determined the relevance of these predictors for the four uncertainty preferences. Results: The considered efficacy assessments explained a greater amount of variance in uncertainty preferences applying information seeking than information avoidance, but the influencing patterns are similar. Only health literacy as a communication efficacy was positively associated with both preferences applying information seeking and negatively associated with both preferences applying information avoidance. Limitations: The concept of uncertainty preferences should be critically assessed concerning its completeness. The low explanatory power of efficacy assessments for preferences underlying information avoidance strategies shows that further research is needed to identify relevant predictors. Conclusion: The findings suggest that efficacy assessments provide cognitive resources for goal-oriented uncertainty management, but a deeper understanding of specific underlying mechanisms of the different preferences requires further examination.