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Supply of Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks and Regional Production Patterns

This paper uses a dynamic, multi-market, nonlinear mathematical programming model, Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM) to first examine the economically viable supply of agricultural biomass at various biomass prices and the mix of cellulosic feedstocks that will be produced at these prices. It also examines this relationship under alternative assumptions about costs of production of these feedstocks, productivity of perennial grasses and the availability of land. Second, it examines the regional pattern of production of various cellulosic feedstocks and the spatial mix of feedstock production. Our analysis shows that 617-923 MMT of biomass can be produced in 2030 at a price of $140/MT depending on residue collection technology, costs of producing bioenergy crops and their yields and land availability. At that price, it would lead to the use of about 18 M ha of idle cropland or cropland pasture for perennial grasses.