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A Population-based Prospective Study on Obesity-related Non-communicable Diseases in Northern Iran


 We conducted a population-based prospective study to assess prevalence and incidence rates of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and obesity-related metabolic disorders, and to evaluate predictive ability of various CVD risk assessment tools, in a population not represented in existing CVD cohorts. We enrolled 5,799 participants in Amol, a city in northern Iran, in 2009–2010, and carried out first repeated measurement (RM) after seven years (2016–2017). For all participants, demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, hepatobiliary imaging, and electrocardiography data have been collected in the enrollment and the first RM. At least two more RM phases, with 7-year intervals, are considered for a comprehensive evaluation of participants (commencing in 2023 and 2030). After enrollment, all participants have been and will be followed up annually for 20 years, both actively and passively. We adopted a multidisciplinary approach to overcome barriers to participation, and achieved a 7-year follow-up success rate of 93.0% with active follow-up of 5,394 participants aged 18–90 years. Of 160 deceased participants, 69 cases (43.1%) died due to CVDs during seven years. The study outcomes offer an evidence base for future researches, and inform policies regarding non-communicable diseases in Iran.