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External imbalances pose a risk to global GDP


 Subject
 Global current account imbalances.
 
 
 Significance
 Global current account imbalances have declined but not disappeared since the 2008 global financial crisis. Some countries that previously had large deficits have switched to running surpluses, notably Spain, while former major surplus countries such as Canada now run deficits. The current account gap between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, has narrowed. At the same time, several countries have built up larger deficits or surpluses and aggregate external deficit and surplus positions have risen since 2014. Imbalances make the world economy more vulnerable to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and oil market disruption at a time when trade and geopolitical tensions are already high.
 
 
 Impacts
 The United States, United Kingdom and Canada are large debtor nations but their role as issuers of reserve currencies protects them.
 India has the third-largest external deficit but its external debt is relatively small, although half is dollar-denominated and higher-risk.
 Corporate defaults were rising in China before the COVID-19 outbreak; further defaults, even relatively small ones, will hit supply chains. 
