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Economic Sector Choices of Mexican Migrants to the U.S.

This paper uses a random utility model to investigate the economic sector choices of Mexican labor migrants who intended to cross the U.S. border in 2011. We use individual-level data from the 2011 EMIF Norte Border Survey to identify migrants according to prior work experience and intended sector of work in an effort to determine what demographic and socioeconomic characteristics explain economic sector mobility. Our empirical analysis focuses on two separate but related questions. First, we estimate a probit model with sample selection to identify migrant characteristics that explain differences between industry of employment at place of origin and the intended sector of work at their destination. Second, we estimate a multinomial probit of the choice of sector to further explore migrant characteristics that explain occupational selection. Our results show that sector mobility is significantly more likely for migrants who are documented and those with higher educational attainment, specifically, spoken English skills. At the same time, the probability that sector of work coincides with intended sector of work in the US is significantly higher for migrants who are male, married, traveling in larger groups, have family in the US and earned a higher wage prior to migration. The results from our multinomial analysis further clarify these patterns. We find that work sector prior to migration is more likely to match intended sector in the agriculture, construction, transportation and trade industries and significantly less likely to match in the services sector relative to other occupational categories.