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Predictability changes what we remember in familiar temporal contexts

The human brain constantly anticipates the future based on memories of the past. Encountering a familiar situation can trigger a prediction of what comes next, with a prediction error leading to pruning of the offending memory. Situations with more predictable events should trigger more reliable predictions, and this could have an impact on memory pruning. Our goal was to evaluate whether memories are spared from pruning in situations that allow for more reliable predictions. Participants viewed a sequence of objects, some of which (“cues”) reappeared multiple times, followed always by novel items. Half of the cues were followed by items from different (unpredictable) categories, while others were followed by items from a single (predictable) category. Pattern classification of fMRI data was used to identify category-specific predictions after each cue. Pruning was observed only in unpredictable contexts, while encoding of new items suffered more in predictable contexts.