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The Effects of Temperature and Median Age on Infection Rates of Human-To-Human Transmission of SARS-Cov-2 Virus: Preliminary Findings from a Global Study

Aims: A preliminary epidemiological study, for COVID-19, for the period January to 31 March 2020, was undertaken for the six major global regions, covering 173 infected countries. Factors that were considered to affect the human-to-human transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: the effect of average monthly country temperature and median age, were investigated.

Methods: Documented case infections were accessed from the WHO website . Temperature, median age, COVID-19 testing data were obtained from relevant sites. Standard statistical data analysis was used to investigate any relationships.

Results: The optimum temperature range for viral infection with SARS-CoV-2 appears to be ± -2,71°C up to 10,50˚C based on about 91% of the total infections occurring at this range. Transmission does appear to occur at a fairly wide temperature range of ± -26˚C up to +33°C. Relatively more cases seem to occur in human subjects at median age of 40,1 ± 5,0 years (56,6%), as noted for Europe, compared to younger subjects of age 20,1 ± 4,3 (0,5%), for Africa. 

Conclusions: The virus appears to be fairly stable, and of varying transmission, at extreme conditions of low and high temperature. There may be a seasonal behavior regarding its occurrence in line with a recent finding. 

Keywords: Enveloped virus; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; temperature; median age; Case Infection Rate (CIR); seasonal