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The Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the Economy of Western New York

This article examines the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on western New York (WNY). A variety of theoretical perspectives are reviewed, notably impact assessment. Evidence from a survey of local industrial firms suggests that NAFTA has not played an especially important role in the various upswings and downswings that have affected the WNY area in the 1990s. In contrast to a number of inquiries that have appeared in the recent literature, the authors find little evidence to support the view that WNY has been negatively affected by NAFTA. Instead, the authors’ evidence suggests that NAFTA has had a positive impact in terms of new export development, job creation, input sourcing, and sales growth. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the empirical and theoretical difficulties that confront researchers who wish to explore the effects of trade agreements upon regional economies.