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8.1.1 Strategic Water Reserve's effect on the water supply system in Abu Dhabi: A System Dynamics Approach

The Emirate of Abu Dhabi relies heavily on desalinated water as a water resource as it is the main source of municipal water. However, desalination is vulnerable to seawater pollution or emergency breakdowns. Therefore, reservoirs of a substantial capacity are needed for water supply under contingency, since existing water in storage and the water network can sustain maximum of two days of water demand in Abu Dhabi. The government has introduced Artificial Storage and Recovery (ASR) as part of Strategic Water Reserve program. This paper studies the effect of ASR on the current water supply system using system dynamics approach. As a result of the simulation, ASR can delay the appearance of the first water shortfall by 2 years and 9 months. Under uncertainties of red tide incidents and demand seasonality variation, Monte Carlo simulation analysis shows that the first water shortfall will be delayed by two and a half years at 97.5% confidence level than if no ASR is in place.