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Modelling of a Large Landslide Problem under Water Level Fluctuation—Model Calibration and Verification

In past centuries, reservoir landslides have been always a threat that brought a big loss in lives and properties. The phenomena that have decisive influence on the landslide instability are quite complex and the importance of each of them for the stability of a particular landslide differs. Therefore, it is extremely important to distinguish between the effects that different phenomena have and to identify those that dominate the behaviour of the studied landslide. The aim of the present study is to investigate the behaviour under the river level fluctuation of a large landslide in China, namely the Huangtupo landslide. A 2D numerical model of a selected part of the Huangtupo landslide is created and a series of fully coupled hydro-mechanical simulations have been conducted to investigate the landslide behaviour under different influencing factors (e.g., mechanical incidents, water head, soil water permeability, etc.). Furthermore, both local and global sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the importance of these influencing factors and to select the most influential model parameters. Thereafter, back analysis is employed to calibrate the model against real field data. Finally, the capability of the calibrated model is evaluated and the results show that it can simulate appropriately the long-term behaviour of the landslide after the river level reaches its maximal level.