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Thermal prognosis of dry-type transformer: Simulation study on load and ambient temperature impacts

Transformer loading is quite crucial for industry as it has significant influence on transformer insulation deterioration as well as its remained life. Transformer load monitoring even becomes more substantial once transformer is operated in high ambient temperatures. Having real-time information about transformer thermal stress and insulation medium is indeed necessity. An intelligent system should be developed to monitor the transformer condition and giving online information on transformer insulation deterioration. Hence, this study is concentrated on an online prognosis system predicting transformer aging rate as well as remained life. Cast-resin transformer thermal modeling is discussed and influences of load and ambient temperature are investigated. Prognosis software is developed based on introduced model and transformer aging rate is examined through different simulation studies. At the end, developed prognosis system is utilized to keep the transformer aging rate on a specific value in course of transformer operating period. Different simulations on this plan are carried out and results are discussed.