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Survival sequence of infants: a factorial analysis—a comment

In their recent paper in this Journal, Prasad & Prasad (1978) gave some interesting data on survival sequences of infants for families in Patna. Their factorial analysis was also interesting but is not thought to be as informative as the analysis that will now briefly be described. First, the data can be rewritten in the form shown in Table 1. This emphasizes the interest in how the probability of an infant surviving depends upon the survival of previously born children in the same family. The main conclusions to be drawn from the data are clear from an inspection of the survival rates shown in Table 1. However, the data have been analysed formally using the computer programme GLIM (Nelder & Wedderburn, 1972; Nelder, 1975) along the lines described previously (Manly, 1976). The conclusions are as follows: 1. The survival of infants did not vary significantly with the final stage of family formation. For example, Table l(b) shows that the survival of second children was almost the same for families with a final total of two, three or four births. 2. The survival rate of second children varied significantly (at the 5% level) with the survival of first children. If the first child died then about 74% of second children survived. If the first child lived then about 89% of second children survived. 3. The survival rate of third children varied significantly only with the survival of the second child, being about 65% or 89% according to whether the second child was dead or alive. 4. The survival of fourth children varied significantly with the survival of the third child and the survival of the second child. Survival rates were approximately as follows: