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Completion of Vital Transition and Changing Migration in Indonesia: Empirical Results and Projection Scenarios

This paper describes population dynamics in Indonesia, with a focus on the possible relationship between declining fertility and mortality trends on one hand and changing levels of internal migration on the other. The high variability in the levels of fertility, mortality and migration among Indonesian provinces provides a rich opportunity to perform a statistical analysis on the possible relationship between these demographic components. The analysis utilizes data from the 1980 and 1990 Indonesia population censuses, and the 1995 intercensal population survey with province as the unit of analysis.The result of this study provides important inputs to improve population projection, particularly for Indonesia, by going one step beyond conventional migration scenarios where little attention is given to the possible correlation with fertility and mortality. More work should be done to further examine the possible relationship between fertility, mortality and migration, particularly over the next 30 years when fertility in all provinces will have declined to below the replacement level.