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Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit Regional Cycle ? A Markov Switching Approach

In this paper we examine the existence of regional business cycles within aggregate WAEMU2 countries and individual countries as well, using a Markov switching model and the Gibbs sampling method. The findings suggest that the aggregate WAEMU’s GDP exhibits growth rate that is different from national economies. The aggregate cycle can be characterized, according to its mean duration, as a Kuznets type cycle lasting from 15 to 25 years. The aggregate GDP growth rate is above all the individual countries GDP growth rate.