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Unemployment - an important predictor for future smoking: a 14-year follow-up study of school leavers

Aims: To analyse predictors among pupils leaving compulsory school for smoking and high alcohol consumption as adults. Methods: A prospective cohort study in which all pupils (N=1083) in the last year of compulsory school were followed for 14 years. The data were collected through repeated comprehensive self-administered questionnaires. Results: Smoking was better predicted than alcohol intake. The best predictors were earlier high alcohol intake and earlier smoking. Among other predictors, low grades, poor teachers' prognoses and early unemployment pointed to unfavourable health habits, mainly smoking. Conclusions: It is possible already at school to identify risk groups for future smoking and high alcohol consumption.