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Review of the Current Status of Tools and Techniques for Risk-Based and Probabilistic Planning in Power Systems

SUMMARY This paper is a summary of the key findings and recommendations of the recently completed work of the CIGRE Working Group C4.601 on Power System Security Assessment. The working group (WG) recently disbanded after submitting the last of it deliverables, a report reviewing the current status of probabilistic and risk-based tools and techniques for power system planning. The report was published in October 2010 [1]. The group consisted of 65 experts from 18 countries around the world. Historically, both transmission and operational planning studies and criteria have been for the most part deterministic. In today’s markets of separated generation, transmission and distribution entities most electric utilities still employ these traditional deterministic approaches. As systems continue to become more complex, the number of scenarios and uncertainties associated with day-to-day operations and planning of the power system has significantly increased. The introduction of renewable generation sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic generation, also introduce significant variability in generation output. All these uncertainties introduce a potentially overwhelming number of scenarios to be studied to assess each possible combination of outcomes. Probabilistic techniques hold some promise of making these assessments more tangible. The WG document serves as an overview of the present status of risk-based and probabilistic techniques and identifies why such tools are needed, what tools and techniques presently exist and the concerns and gaps associated with the current tools, and where we need to go with further research and development to help bring risk based tools and techniques to the forefront of power system planning.