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Spatial Distribution of Leisure Agriculture in Xinjiang and Its Influencing Factors Based on Geographically Weighted Regression

As a new industry in modern agriculture, leisure agriculture has a strong correlation with rural tourism, and provides rural areas with positive prospects for sustainable development. However, leisure agriculture tends to include a number of bottlenecks. In this study, we investigated the spatial distribution of leisure agriculture in Xinjiang, and the factors that affect it. Kernel density analysis, the nearest-neighbor index, and the geographic concentration index were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of leisure agriculture. Following the conclusion of the ordinary least squares tests, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was conducted to explore the factors affecting spatial distribution. The findings were as follows: (1) The spatial distribution of leisure agriculture in Xinjiang is uneven, and is concentrated in the northern and southern parts of the Tianshan Mountains in western Xinjiang. (2) In terms of the distribution density, there are four high-concentration centers (Bosten Lake, Hami, and the east and west sides of the Ili River Valley) and one subconcentration center (spreading outward from Urumqi). (3) Population, transportation, tourism resources, urban factors, and rainfall, all had significant effects on the distribution of leisure agriculture. These factors had positive and negative effects on the distribution of leisure agriculture, forming high- and low-value areas in space. (4) The leisure agricultural sector responded in varying degrees to the different factors, with large internal variability. Rainfall and population had greater differential effects on the spatial distribution of leisure agriculture compared to transportation, tourism resources, and urban factors, and there were significant two-way effects. Transportation, urban factors, and tourism resources all had consistent, predominantly positive, effects on the distribution of leisure agriculture.