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Unexpected Effects of the Washington Consensus: Trade Liberalization and Migration Flows in Latin America

The traditional theory of international trade assumes that there is a substitution relationship between international trade and migration flows. However, trade liberalization in Latin America has come with an increase in emigration. This article, based on an econometric analysis for the period 1981–2002, shows that there is a complementary relationship between trade and international migration. One explanation is related to the Washington Consensus. In particular, higher labor market flexibility, in the context of trade openness, has resulted in higher levels of unemployment. Therefore, emigration represents a safety valve that reduces the pressure on Latin American labor markets.