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Structure hypothesis of authoritarian rule: evidence from the lifespans of China’s dynasties

Abstract Scholars on authoritarianism in China have found that authoritarian resilience is partly derived from the ruling structure contained in the authoritarianism which is also known as the structure of ‘officials governed by the central government, people governed by local governments’ or the ‘ruling structure of the system of prefectures and counties’. Under such ruling structure, the central government, by implementing centralized governance of its officials and decentralized governance of its people, is able to control social and agency risks. Hence, this structure helps the central government to maintain its authoritarian rule and the stability of the state in the long run. This paper summarizes the above point of view into the ‘structure hypothesis of authoritarian rule’: for a large-scale authoritarian state with a vast territory and a large population, if it establishes the system of prefectures and counties as its ruling structure, it will enjoy a high degree of stability; on the contrary, if it deviates from the system of prefectures and counties, the country may be less stable. This paper provides new evidence for this hypothesis based on the lifespans of China’s major dynasties.