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Sea Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields

We show that municipal bond markets began pricing sea level rise (SLR) exposure at the end of 2011, coinciding with upward revisions of SLR projections. The effect is present across maturities and is concentrated on the East and Gulf coasts, where storm risk is greatest. We apply a structural model of credit risk to show that municipal bond investors expect a one standard deviation increase in SLR exposure to correspond to a reduction of 3% to 8% in the present value or an increase of 2% to 4% in the volatility of the local government cash flows supporting debt repayment.