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[The mathematics of repeat abortion: explaining the increase (author's transl)].


 The increase in the proportion of repeated abortion after legalization of induced abortion has been attributed either to a decrease in the practice of contraception, or to the negative influence on morality of a permissive society. These suppositions are not supported by data. The authors present a simple mathematical model to quantify the percentage of repeated abortion for a population of women aged 15-44, on the assumption that the risk of abortion is constant over time, and not dependent on prior abortion experience. Results of the investigation show that: 1) the proportion of repeated abortions increases with time; 2) the final percentage, 30 years after legalization of abortion, increases with the abortion rate; 3) the concentration of abortions within a determined age group does not influence the final percentage; and 4) that the heterogeneity of the population causes a great difference in the rate of first abortions and in that of repeated abortions, and that the first is higher than the second.
