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Topic of presidential campaign discourse and election outcome

Research employing Functional Theory has generated considerable data on the nature of political, and primarily presidential, campaign discourse. This study investigates the relationship of the topic of presidential campaign discourse—the proportion of utterances focusing on policy and character—and election outcome. Employing a large sample of multiple presidential message forms (television spots, debates, speeches) from presidential campaigns spanning 1948–2000, the study presents evidence that presidential candidates who discuss policy more frequently (and character less) than their opponents are more likely to win elections. It appears that many citizens primarily view the presidency as an institution that implements policy and vote accordingly. This finding, that discussion of policy issues is important to election outcome, has implications for candidates, scholars, and those who cover political campaigns.