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Integrated Simulation Method to Evaluate the Impact of New Large Aircraft on Passenger Flows at Airport Terminals

The development of new large aircraft (NLA) has been a topic of considerable interest and speculation. The first generation of the NLA with 555-seat capacity will presumably enter into commercial service by 2006. Due to the greater dimensions of the NLA and more simultaneous arrival passengers, there will be substantial impact on existing airports after its launch. Terminal operations, particularly individual passenger processing facilities, will be one of the most significantly affected components in the entire airport system. An integrated simulation method is proposed to evaluate the potential effects on the operation performance of primary processing facilities. The method uses scenario analysis in a before-and-after context and attempts to analyze the impact under current uncertainty of the operating characteristics of the NLA and its market share. The arrival passenger flow is modeled as a queuing network system, composed of a series of passenger processing facilities. The derivation of arrival and service probability distributions in the model is based on a survey of international airports and on observational data collected at selected international terminals. The integrated method may assist airport operators in examining the potential bottlenecks in the arriving-passenger flow and in evaluating operations. The simulation results indicate that the introduction of the NLA will have the largest effect on the baggage claim system.