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Estimation of uncertainty in long term combined sewer sediment behaviour predictions, a UK case study.

There are regulatory driven requirements for UK water companies to reduce the number of properties at risk of sewer flooding. One of the potential causes of sewer flooding is the presence of persistent sediment deposits in sewers. This is a common problem in many combined sewers. Although the regulation is risk based, there is a gap in current knowledge on how risk assessment is affected by the uncertainty in sewer solids behaviour prediction. This paper describes a UK case study exploring the possibility of estimating uncertainty in sewer sediment deposit level predictions, using Monte Carlo simulations combined with a response database.