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Modernizing environmental signature physics for target detection—Phase 3

The present effort (Phase 3) builds on our previously published prior efforts (Phases 1 and 2), which examined methods of determining the probability of detection and false alarm rates using thermal infrared for buried object detection. Environmental phenomenological effects are often represented in weather forecasts in a relatively coarse, hourly resolution, which introduces concerns such as exclusion or misrepresentation of ephemera or lags in timing when using this data as an input for the Army’s Tactical Assault Kit software system. Additionally, the direct application of observed temperature data with weather model data may not be the best approach because metadata associated with the observations are not included. As a result, there is a need to explore mathematical methods such as Bayesian statistics to incorporate observations into models. To better address this concern, the initial analysis in Phase 2 data is expanded in this report to include (1) multivariate analyses for detecting objects in soil, (2) a moving box analysis of object visibility with alternative methods for converting FLIR radiance values to thermal temperature values, (3) a calibrated thermal model of soil temperature using thermal IR imagery, and (4) a simple classifier method for automating buried object detection.