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Assessment of Critical Scenarios for Voltage Stability Considering Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation

This paper presents an approach to incorporate the uncertainty of wind power generation in the dynamic security assessment of the day-ahead operation planning. The approach is based on the Cross-Entropy method and allows obtaining the deviations from the predicted output power level of wind power plants (WPP) that result in violation of the voltage stability margin (VSM) threshold. The Cross Entropy allows accelerating the convergence of the sampling generation by making adaptive changes to the probability density function according to the Kullback-Leibler distance. As a result, the critical scenarios in terms of deviations from the predicted wind power output are identified and can be used for planning preventive and/or corrective control actions. The approach is validated using a test system model based on a real bulk power network, and the results show that it is effective in the identification of critical deviations from the predicted wind power generation.