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Migrant Opportunity and the Educational Attainment of Youth in Rural China*

This paper investigates how the reduction of barriers to migration affected the decision of middle school graduates to attend high school in rural China. Change in the cost of migration is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national identity card distribution, which made it easier for rural migrants to register as temporary residents in urban destinations. After taking care to address potential strengths and weaknesses of our identification strategy, we find a robust, negative relationship between migrant opportunity and high school enrollment that cannot be explained by geographic convergence in access to education across rural China.