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COULD A CLADOGRAM THIS SHORT HAVE ARISEN BY CHANCE ALONE?: ON PERMUTATION TESTS FOR CLADISTIC STRUCTURE

Abstract Absolute criteria for evaluating cladistic analyses are useful, not only because cladistic algorithms impose structure, but also because applications of cladistic results demand some assessment of the degree of corroboration of the cladogram. Here, a means of quantitative evaluation is presented based on tree length. The length of the most‐parsimonious tree reflects the degree to which the observed characters co‐vary such that a single tree topology can explain shared character states among the taxa. This “cladistic covariation” can be quantified by comparing the length of the most parsimonious tree for the observed data set to that found for data sets with random covariation of characters. A random data set is defined as one in which the original number of characters and their character states are maintained, but for each character, the states are randomly reassigned to the taxa. The cladistic permutation tail probability, PTP, is defined as the estimate of the proportion of times that a tree can be found as short or shorter than the original tree. Significant cladistic covariation exists if the PTP is less than a prescribed value, for example, 0.05. In case studies based on molecular and morphological data sets, application of the PTP shows that: