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Clashing States and Civilizations: The Multilateral Flow of Transnational Terrorism, 2000-2007

In this paper we develop a multilateral (k-adic) empirical framework for analyzing the flow of terrorist activity across state borders. Building on Poast’s (2010) k-adic framework for analyzing multilateral alliance behavior, we have created a directional k-adic design that allows us to track the flow of terrorist violence from multiple potential base states toward another target state. Our analysis of transnational terrorist activity from 2000-2007 demonstrates that flow of transnational terrorist activity is a function of the opportunity and willingness to use terrorist tactics. Specifically, we find that the opportunity to launch terrorist attacks is primarily a function of distance and accessibility and relative power. On the other hand, we find that he willingness of non-state groups to use violence against civilians in other states is primarily a function of conflicting interests between the host and target states, and differences in ethnic and religious identity.