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The Effect of Social Proof on Weather-Related Decision Making in Aviation

This paper examines several accident reports to investigate how a pilot's decision-making is influenced by the decisions made by pilots flying in her/his proximity. Among all the possible theories on influence we frame the problem in terms of Cialdini's (1993) concept of social proof, one that seems particularly appropriate for the analysis of accidents that occurred under deteriorating weather conditions in high-density terminal areas. In the paper we argue that, under those conditions, a very critical moment occurs when pilots should start making no-go or divert decisions after a stream of successful takeoffs and landings has been conducted. Following our examination, we highlight potential streams of research that may yield significant results in this area.