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P-P49 Predicting Future Pathological and Operative Complexity in Pancreatoduodenectomy: 30 Years of Experience


 
 
 Patient selection for pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is largely based upon local experience and established practice. This study sought to observe changes in complexity and patient cohort over time with the aim of predicting future cohort characteristic of patients undergoing PD.
 
 
 
 All PDs at our institution between 1988 and 2020 were reviewed (n = 1,878) to observe changing trends in patient demographic, pathological diagnosis, operative factors and postoperative outcomes. Coefficients from regression models were reported as gradients per decade, to quantify the rate of change over time. The resulting models were then plotted to illustrate the trend across the study period, as well as forecasts for subsequent years.
 
 
 
 The annual volume (7 to 128) and proportion of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) (28 to 53%) increased at a linear rate. The proportion of associated vein resection (3 to 25%) and technical difficulty (type 2-4; 5 to 28%) increased in a nonlinear way, increasing more rapidly in later times. The average age (48 to 67) increased in a log linear trend. Length of stay reduced by 9.3%, whilst mortality reduced with an odds ratio of 0.69, per decade. Furthermore, When performance at our institution was compared to recently established benchmarks, it was shown that our institution regularly performed within these standards with few exceptions. By 2030 our predictions indicate that the average age will increase to 69, PDAC will comprise 62% of pathology, 40% will have an associated venous resection and 43% will be graded 2-4 in technical difficulty. Length of stay will have reduced to 9.6 days and mortality to 2%. 
 
 
 
 Despite increasing complexity of surgery and patient age, length of stay and mortality after PD are reducing. Understanding changes over time permits an estimation of a future surgical cohort where complexity will increase. It is important that surgeons continue to push boundaries. Patient selection, based upon prior experience may inhibit progression and development of services.
