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The Effect of Credit Supply on House Prices: Evidence From Turkey

ABSTRACT This article examines the effect of exogeneous credit supply shocks on house prices in an emerging economy, Turkey, using bank deposits, the number of branches, and financial literacy as instruments to estimate exogenous credit supply. Utilizing data for 26 regions and from 2010 to 2017, I find that an exogenous expansion in housing credits as well as consumer credits utilized has a large and significant effect on prices. A similar effect holds for quality-adjusted hedonic house prices. The results have important policy implications for credit-driven emerging economies.