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Neurology in the next two decades

The last 20 years have seen an explosion of knowledge about the neurosciences and neurologic diseases. In the next two decades, we can expect a dramatic expansion in our ability to diagnose and treat neurologic diseases. It is necessary to maintain the quality of the neurologic workforce. This requires attracting outstanding medical students to neurology, thus maintaining a high quality of applicants to neurology residency programs. We are observing an increasing proportion of international medical graduates (IMGs) in our residency programs. There is concern about what effect changes in health care delivery in the United States will have on the number of residency positions and the utilization of neurologists in the coming years.

The Workforce Task Force (WFTF) was appointed by the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) Board of Directors to address these concerns and to recommend ways to enhance the neurology workforce in the next two decades. This report is the result of 2 years of research and deliberations, assisted by Vector Research Inc. The full report is published on the AAN’s website (www.aan.com). The report considers adult and child neurologists, MD and DO neurologists, neurologists in training and those already qualified, and all branches of the profession—namely practice, teaching, research, and administration. It deals with supply and demand, quality, and the attraction of outstanding medical students to neurology.

### Supply projections.

The projections of the WFTF and Vector Research Inc. were based on the Bureau of Health Professions Physician Supply Model, using the American Medical Association Masterfile data, estimates of age- and sex-specific death and retirement rates, and the number of graduating neurology residents. Three scenarios were projected. The Baseline Scenario assumed that the number of neurology residents graduating each year remained constant at the 375 for 1996. The High Scenario was based on the projection by the Neurology Residency Matching …