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Post-hazard flow capacity of bridge transportation network considering structural deterioration of bridges

The flow capacity of a transportation network can be reduced significantly if its constituent bridges are damaged by natural or man-made hazards. For rapid risk-informed decision making on hazard mitigation and response, it is therefore essential to have a capability to predict the post-hazard flow capacity of the network efficiently and accurately. However, this is a challenging task due to the uncertainty in hazards and structural damage, and the complex nature of the network flow analysis. Moreover, the bridge structures may experience significant deterioration over their life cycle, which requires time-varying network reliability analysis. This paper proposes a new non-sampling-based approach to estimate the time-varying post-hazard flow capacity of a bridge transportation network considering structural deterioration of bridges. The proposed approach evaluates the probabilities of structural damage scenarios efficiently using the matrix-based system reliability method and rapidly computes the corresponding flow capacities using a maximum flow capacity analysis algorithm. The matrix-based framework facilitates the integration of these results to obtain the probabilistic distributions and statistical moments of the network flow capacity. It also enables computing various measures useful for risk-informed decision making, such as the conditional mean and standard deviation of flow capacity given observed structural damage, and component importance measures. In the proposed approach, probability calculation and network flow analysis are performed separately, which renders time-varying post-hazard flow capacity analysis efficient. The proposed approach is demonstrated by a numerical example based on the Sioux Falls network under multiple bridge-deterioration scenarios simulating the progress of deterioration.