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Analysis and prediction of storm water levels in Delaware inland bays

A simple approach based on an analytical model and available tide gauge data is proposed for the analysis of storm tide damping inside inland bays with complex bathymetry and for the prediction of peak water levels at gauge locations during storms. The approach was applied to eight tide gauges in the vicinity of inland bays in Delaware. Peak water levels at the gauge locations were analyzed for 34 storms during 2005-2017. A damping parameter in the analytical model was calibrated for each bay gauge. The calibrated model predicted the peak water levels within errors of about 0.2 m except for Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The analytical model including wave overtopping was used to estimate the peak wave overtopping rate over the barrier beach from the measured peak water level in the adjacent bay.