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Estimated and observed risk of tuberculous infection in the Netherlands, 1967 to 1975.

If the trend in risk of tuberculosis infection is estimated from the 1967-1976 data alone (which contain only 6 usable annual figures), the estimate is a decrease of 9.3% annually, a figure substantially lower than the estimate from the 1956-1966 data alone, viz. 13.7%. It is as yet impossible to decide whether or not this represents a real change in the rate of decrease of the risk of infection, as more detailed analyses need to be made. At the moment, it is thus preferable to regard the downward trend in log risk as uniform and exponential throughout the whole period, at a rate of 12.0% annually.