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population growth, economic inequality, and homicide

Empirical research and theorizing on cross-national variations in homicide have been limited by an exclusive focus on the direct effects of national structural characteristics on the rates of homicide. This study is designed to extend this growing body of literature by advancing a conceptual model accounting for an important underlying feature of societies that indirectly elevates national homicide rates. Specifically, it is proposed that a high rate of population growth may have a direct role in bifurcating the distribution of national wealth. Population growth should therefore indirectly increase homicide rates through this mediating factor. This hypothesis is tested with data from 50 nations circa 1990. The data support the expected relationship, indicating (net of several controls) that rapid population growth is an underlying barrier to low homicide rates across nations. The main theoretical implication is that the often observed inverse relationship between level of development and rates of homicide appears to be indirectly driven by differential population dynamics.