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International Trade and Economic Growth: The Nexus, the Evidence, and the Policy Implications for South Africa

ABSTRACT We revisit the trade-growth nexus for the specific case of South Africa. In recent years, policymakers are focusing more on export growth strategies to stimulate growth prospects. Recent experience in some emerging economies, however, suggests that imports have the potential to positively impact economic growth. Our empirical evidence supports this: We observe that controlling for exogenous shocks including exchange rate volatility and global economic sentiment is necessary for robust and sustainable long-run export-driven economic and import growth. The short-run dynamics further underscores the importance of imports to growth. The significance of our findings and policy implications are discussed.