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Elevated temperature and carbon dioxide concentration effects on wheat productivity in Madhya Pradesh: a simulation study

The Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) Wheat model was used to test the sensitivity of wheat cropping system for the Bhopal region in Madhya Pradesh to changes in temperature (0 to 5°C from the base mean temperature) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (0 to 550 ppm from the base of 350 ppm). The wheat cultivar Sujata was used for this simulation study. It was found that there was a negative relationship between grain yield and temperature while there were positive correlations of grain yield with atmospheric CO2 concentration for the region under study. However, the rate of decrease in grain yield was more for higher temperatures rise in contrast to lower temperatures, and the rate of increase in grain and biomass yield was more for higher CO2 concentration compared with the lower levels. On an average, there was 8% decrease in wheat grain and biomass yield per 1 °C increase in temperature. On the contrary, wheat grain yield increased by 33% and biomass yield by 35% with the elevation in CO2 concentration from 350 to 850 ppm. Increasing the temperature by1 oC and CO2 concentration to 500 ppm, the yield decline in wheat was lower than individual effect of increased temperature. This study showed that environmental factors have significant effects on wheat grain and biomass yield with changes in atmospheric CO2 and temperature. These findings provided a sound basis for preliminary coping and prioritizing adaptation options for the future climate change scenarios. 