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Optimal Dispatch of Integrated Power and Gas Systems Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

This paper uses ARMA model to model the prediction error of wind power, and obtains the probability distribution of the prediction error by probability statistical analysis to simulate the uncertainty of wind power. Latin hypercube simulation is used to sample typical wind power prediction errors, and a large number of wind power scenarios are reduced. On this basis, taking into account the power-to-gas, a optimal dispatch model of the integrated power and gas systems(IPGS) is established with the objective of minimizing the operation cost of the system. The CPLEX solver is used to complete the solution of the model. Finally, modified 6-bus power system and 7-node natural gas system are used to construct an IPGS. This paper uses this IPGS to do the simulation test and cases studies. Which verifies the effectiveness of the model, and further reveals the advantages of power-to-gas in promoting wind power absorption and improving system operation economy.