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SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION AND PROBABILITY CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE MIN RIVER BASIN FROM 1961 TO 2016

Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 national meteorological stations in the Min River Basin (the MRB), the temporal and spatial variation trends of extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2016 were analyzed using multiple extreme precipitation indices and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The extreme precipitation in different recurrence periods was calculated by using the regional frequency analysis combined with the spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation events. The spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation index in the MRB varies considerably. The average characteristics of extreme precipitation are changing from short-term extreme precipitation to sustained extreme precipitation. The main reasons for this change are the significant increases in wet days and consecutive wet days, particularly the number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm). On this basis, the Min River is divided into four hydro-climatically consistent regions and the maxima of RX1DAY’s and RX5DAY’s 20-year and 100-year recurrence periods are found. The traditional at-site hydrological frequency analysis averaged the spatial differences within the basin and underestimated the extreme precipitation in the middle reaches. This indicates that the regional frequency analysis has some reference significance for solving the problem of neglecting the uneven spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in precipitation estimation.