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Spatio-temporal Change of the Inbound Tourism Economic Development in China

The importance of space to many socioeconomic processes has been gaining attentions and recognition. The spatial effect in regional differences studies is now an important theme in the literature. But, both spatial and temporal attributes of data are important, existing approaches focused primarily on one of these attributes. The empirical analysis should take into account that the nature of tourism economic development is both spatial and temporal. Using the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA), LISA Time Path, LISA space-time transition measure and STARS(Space-Time Analysis of Regional Systems) software, this article analyzed the space-time dynamics of the inbound tourism economic development in China, measured by the foreign exchange revenue from China's inbound travel, throughout 31 Chinese mainland provinces from 2001 to2011. Empirical results show that the inter-province inbound tourism economy is weakly auto-related, and the inter-province inbound tourism economic differences are dwindled first and enlarged afterward. By means of LISA time path analyses, this article finds that the local spatial structure of eastern coastal China tends to be more dynamic while the central and western regions are more stable. The longest three provinces of LISA time path are Beijing(3.804), Shanghai(3.625) and Tianjin(2.187) while the shortest three provinces are Shanxi(0.288), Ningxia(0.400) and Gansu(0.402). The maximum and minimum of the tortuosity of LISA time path are Hubei(16.816) and Zhejiang(1.171). Hubei has a most fluctuating local spatial dependence evolution in direction. According to the directional Moran scatter plot, the predominant direction involves downward moves of both a province and its neighbor. Following this are upward moves. Taking these together, there is striking evidence of strong spatial integration in evolution of spatial pattern of inbound tourism economy in China at the provincial level. According to the local Moran's I transition probability matrix and space-time transitions measures, the relative mobility of the local Moran transition matrices is relatively small. The frequency of type0 transition is 0.987. This means that local inbound tourism economic structure and local spatial autocorrelation in China are very stable.