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Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses

Future increases in the concentration of green- house gases and water vapour may cool the stratosphere fur- ther and increase the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been extrapolated from the highly significant trends 1958-2001. Using a tight correlation between PSC area and the total vortex ozone de- pletion and taking the decreasing amounts of ozone deplet- ing substances into account we make empirical estimates of future ozone. The result is that Arctic ozone losses increase until 2010-2015 and decrease only slightly afterwards. How- ever, for such a long extrapolation into the future caution is necessary. Tentatively taking the modelled decrease in the ozone trend in the future into account results in almost con- stant ozone depletions until 2020 and slight decreases after- wards. This approach is a complementary method of predic- tion to that based on the complex coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).