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Airport Capacity Prediction Integrating Ensemble Weather Forecasts

This paper introduces an analytical model generating probabilistic estimates of airport capacity incorporating the impact of terminal weather. It extends the Integrated Airport Capacity Model in which deterministic weather forecast inputs have been either replaced or supplemented with ensemble forecasts. Ensemble forecasts provide a means of characterizing weather forecast uncertainty information, which is utilized to better quantify the uncertainty of probabilistic airport capacity estimates. The paper describes the formulation of a mathematical model and discusses necessary enhancements to support integration of ensemble forecast data. It also briefly introduces the software implementation in a proof-of-concept prototype. This prototype was used to conduct a series of sensitivity analyses and feasibility studies at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. The paper also compares airport capacity predictions with standard FAA benchmark capacities and actual observed throughput, contrasting capacity estimates under varying combinations of weather conditions and air traffic demand scenarios.