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THE CHANGE OF THE TRAJECTORY TOWARDS GROWING ECONOMY: THE EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA

The Russian economy has overcome the recession and returned to moderate growth in year 2017, as the economy has adjusted to the lower oil price and the sanctions imposed in 2014. Russian companies had stepped up domestic investment, attracted by industrial policy incentives and a weak rouble that increased their competitiveness. A resilient rubble and steady oil prices have given the central bank room for a rate cut. The medium-term growth forecast for Russia has slightly improved after a faster-than-expected recovery in demand on the domestic market and due to higher exports. Monetary policy should be eased to support growth, but cautiously to avoid a rebound of inflation. The paper deals with the analyses and predictions of the Russian economy development and the main factors influencing the current and future economy and the GDP structure. The objective of this article was to analyse the time-varying nature among Russian GDP, oil prices and some major macroeconomic variables. The results of the carried out research reflected that the oil prices has played a key role and has indeed changed the nature of correlation relationship between analysed variables. The value of the rubble against dollar is closely tied to the price of oil, Russia’s main export. Over the longer term growth is expected to continue lagging behind the world average unless the government adopts decisive structural reforms to boost investment. The poverty rate will gradually decline as the labor market strengthens and inflation abates further. The paper highlights the monetary policy including currency prediction, public debts, and inflation levels, as well as commodity export dependency.