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A Simulation Based Investigation Considering Carbon Emissions in Shanghai

In context of global call to reduce the dependence on fossil energy and establish a low-emission based economy, it is essentially vital for policymakers to make particular decisions to reduce the emission target and efficient management of energy resources. In response to China's 2030 carbon peak target, taking Shanghai as an example, this article first forecasts the energy structure along with energy demand of various departments in the region based on Markov model and long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model. Secondly, considering the impact of energy structure optimization and energy demand reduction on carbon emissions, this study comprehensively investigates the carbon emissions of Shanghai from 2019 to 2035 under different scenarios. The results show that under the recent emission reduction intensity planned by the Shanghai municipal government, the carbon emissions of Shanghai can reach the peak level around 2024. Therefore, If the emission reduction measures are effectively strengthened, the carbon emissions in Shanghai can be further controlled. The outcomes of the study suggested that: in the short term, the influence of industrial structure adjustment to carbon emission reduction is the strongest; In the long run, clean energy substitution and accelerated electrification in different sectors play a substantial role in carbon emission reduction.