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PREDICTIVE FACTORS OF HYPERTENSION IN A LARGE FRENCH POPULATION WITH A 6-YEAR FOLLOW-UP: PP.7.280

Objective: Predictive factors of hypertension in France are not known. The aim of the present study was to identify predictive factors of hypertension in a large French population with a 6-year follow-up. Population and Methods: 41,794 subjects [26,580 men (45.1±10.6 years), 15,214 women (46.5±10.6 years)], normotensive at the first visit and who had a second visit between 1991 and 2007. Mean follow-up was 5.7±2.2 years. Hypertension (HT) at the second visit was defined as: systolic blood pressure (SBP) 3140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 390 mmHg and/or antihypertensive treatment. Predictive factors were evaluated by forward regression stepwise analysis including pulse pressure (PP), SBP, DBP, and validated depression and anxiety scores. Models were tested for the population as a whole and separately in both genders. Results: For the overall population, 22.6% developed HT (24.0% in men and 20.1% in women). Predictive factors of HT were as follows, in the order of importance: initial PP or SBP according to the model, variation of body mass index (BMI), initial heart rate, age, initial cholesterol level, family history of hypertension, and stroke, glycaemia and gamma-Gt, tobacco consumption and initial triglyceride level. By contrast, female gender and elevated socio-professional category are protective factors. In women, Gamma-Gt levels and tobacco were not significantly associated with HT, however, physical activity limited the development of HT. The model enables the identification of 86% of subjects who remain normotensive at the second visit. Psychological factors were not implicated in the increase of hypertension. Conclusions: In 6 years, age, initial PP or SBP, heart rate, cholesterol, variation in BMI, family history of HT, and masculine gender were predictive of HT. Only 4 modifiable factors could be associated with preventive intervention in the short run.