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Assessing the Effect of Infrastructure and Service Attributes on Realization of Motorways of the Sea

Motorways of the sea (MoS) is regarded as the integrated modal transportation supply chain that offers a realistic prospect for a substantial modal shift from road. It is also considered to contribute to improving competitiveness, reducing environmental damage, and enhancing regional cohesion. Research on MoS services has only recently started to develop. This paper proposes a probabilistic methodological framework based on Bayesian networks to identify and quantify the effect of different attributes on transportation supply chains that could foster the shift from traditional intermodal services to an integrated MoS process. Aspects such as operational characteristics of ports, hinterland operations, security, and administrative and customs procedures, as well as maritime and rail services, are jointly assessed. The proposed methodology identifies and prioritizes those attributes that most likely will lead to improving the operational state of an intermodal supply chain, thus rendering it an MoS chain. This could be a useful tool for decision makers to obtain the necessary information on a macro scale as they decide whether to proceed with needed investments for those intermodal links selected as potential MoS. Therefore, the model can be integrated into a decision-making framework as a tool by which necessary investments or service improvements or both could be identified.