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Viability, Electability, and Candidate Choice in a Presidential Primary Election: A Test of Competing Models

Using data from an exit poll, this paper tests three models of voter decision making in a presidential primary: a simple candidate preference model, a bandwagon model, and an expected utility model. For both Republican and white Democratic primary voters, the data support the expected utility model. In choosing a candidate for their party's nomination, Republican and Democratic primary voters weighed electability in addition to their general evaluations of the candidates. Opinions about electability were, in turn, strongly influenced by perceptions of candidates' nomination prospects. Thus, viability had an important, but indirect, influence on voter decision making.