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Price lead-lag relationship between presale and spot housing market in China

Compared with the large scale of presale property market in China, researches on the relationship between China's presale and spot real estate prices are far from adequate. By the experiences of research on financial market, this paper adopts VECM model to research price lead-lag relationship between presale and spot housing market in China. By testing both the short-run and long-run Granger casualty relationship, the results indicate that there's a bilateral price lead-lag relationship between Chinese presale and spot property market. The outcomes of VECM models and variance decomposition demonstrate that presale housing market plays a greater role in the property price discovery process in China.