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Integrating engineering, economic, and social modeling in risks of cascading failures across interdependent complex networks

Planning for electric power reliability and recovery from catastrophic failures requires knowledge of the interdependencies between electrical systems and the economic and social systems mat they serve. To date, however, such planning has been conducted in an atomistic fashion, with little recognition that system interdependencies have major effects on benefits and costs of catastrophic failures. This paper stresses the need to integrate social, economic and engineering modeling in the risk assessment and management of cascading failures leading to blackouts. Evaluation of cascading economic and social impacts of major power losses will be based on contingent and subjective valuation methods built into a computable general equilibrium model. This model is being validated using surveys in the Washington DC Metropolitan region. The assessed risks and costs are integrated in the power system planning phase.