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Analysis of Oligopoly on Electric Power Market under Asymmetric Information

Aiming at finding the effect of load changing on electricity market, this paper studied Cournot model with asymmetric information based on load forecasting. Firstly, a perfect competition market structure with asymmetric information was built, and a market equilibrium price was obtained based on Cournot model with no load forecasting. Then, using game theory, the impact of load forecasting on intrinsic market power is evaluated analytically based on Cournot model. Finally, the relationship between market equilibrium price, generators profits and the load forecasting result k was obtained by numerical simulation. Some insights were got from this paper. The accuracy of load forecasting will directly affect profits of investment, market equilibrium prices and market forces. And load forecasting is useful if the forecasting error rate is held under 33%. Therefore, the key is to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.