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Gastrointestinal cancer mortality in New Jersey counties, and the relationship with environmental variables.

The State of New Jersey (NJ) USA has been thought to have an unusually high cancer mortality rate; this assumption has been based on 1950-1969 mortality data for its 21 counties. This paper presents an analysis of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer mortality rates in New Jersey counties during 1968-1977, a comparison with the 1950-1969 rates, and associations between current GI cancer mortality rates and selected environmental variables. Age-adjusted mortality rates for GI cancers were calculated for the 21 NJ counties during the period 1968-1977, and were compared with the period 1950-1969, with the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) survey and with cancer mortality in the US, 1973-1977. The county rates were also correlated with: the distribution of chemical toxic waste disposal sites; annual per capita income; the rates of low birth weight, birth defects, and infant mortality; chemical industry distribution; percentage of the population employed in chemical industries; the density of population; and the urbanization index for each of the counties. Some of the major findings are: Age-adjusted GI cancer mortality rates (all sites combined) were higher than national rates in 20 of 21 NJ counties. In comparison with national trends, NJ stomach cancer rates have declined less, oesophageal cancer rates have declined more, and pancreatic cancer mortality rates have followed similar patterns. Cancer mortality rates in NJ during the period 1968-1977 significantly (p less than 0.0001) exceeded national rates for cancer of the oesophagus (white male, non-white male), stomach (men and women), colon (white male, white female, non-white female), and rectum (whites only). In 18 of the 21 NJ counties, the observed number of cancer deaths for at least one GI cancer site was significantly greater than expected at the 0.0001 level for at least one population subgroup. Among white men, a significant (p less than 0.0001) excess of observed over expected cancer deaths was observed for three or more GI cancer sites in seven counties. The environmental variables that were most frequently associated with GI cancer mortality rates (except pancreatic cancer) were degree of urbanization, population density, and chemical toxic waste disposal sites. Some of the implications of the study findings are discussed and recommendations made for future investigations.