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Correct selection of risk factors for unstable construction projects under probabilistic conditions: an analysis

This paper presents the problem of correct selection of risk factors for unstable construction projects, especially those repeatedly annexed, exposed to unforeseen random events (construction disruptions). An analysis of the investment network model and the location of the disruption has been carried out (signing of a contract annex). Cost contingency studies were carried out and risk factors were estimated. The next step entailed a comparative analysis of investment costs estimated by the EVM method against the backdrop of three analytical variants of the studied investment under risk conditions (favourable, average and unfavourable conditions). The obtained results were discussed.