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Quantitative estimation of drought risk in Ukraine using satellite data

In this paper, we focus on quantitative drought risk assessment using satellite data. Methods of the extreme value theory (EVT) are applied for a time-series of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites in order to provide drought hazard mapping. For this, a Poisson-GP (Generalized Pareto) model is applied for modelling VHI extreme values. The model allows estimation and mapping of return periods of different categories of drought severity. An approach to economical risk assessment due to droughts is presented. The derived drought hazard map is integrated with high resolution crop map to provide final estimates of risk. The proposed approach is implemented for quantitative assessment of drought risk for the Kyiv region in Ukraine.