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Using Crop Management Scenario Simulations to Evaluate the Sensitivity of the Ohio Phosphorus Risk Index

Phosphorus (P) risk indices are commonly used in the 
USA to estimate the field-scale risk of agricultural P runoff. Because the Ohio 
P Risk Index is increasingly being used to judge farmer performance, it is 
important to evaluate weighting/scoring of all P Index parameters to ensure 
Ohio farmers are credited for practices that reduce P runoff risk and not 
unduly penalized for things not demonstrably related to runoff risk. A 
sensitivity analysis provides information as to how sensitive the P Index score 
is to changes in inputs. The objectives were to determine 1) which inputs are 
most highly associated with P Index scores and 2) the relative impact of each 
input variable on resultant P Index scores. The current approach uses 
simulations across 6134 Ohio point locations and five crop management scenarios 
(CMSs), representing increasing soil disturbance. The CMSs range from all 
no-till, which is being promoted in Ohio, rotational tillage, which is a common 
practice in Ohio to full tillage to represent an extreme practice. Results 
showed that P Index scores were best explained by soil test P (31.9%) followed 
by connectivity to water (29.7%), soil erosion (13.4%), fertilizer application 
amount (11.3%), runoff class (9.5%), fertilizer application method (2.2%), and 
finally filter strip (2.0%). Ohio P Index simulations across CMSs one through 
five showed that >40% scored 45 points (very high). Given Ohio water quality problems, the Ohio P Index 
needs to be stricter. The current approach is useful for Ohio P Index 
evaluations and revision decisions by spatially illustrating the impact of 
potential changes regionally and state-wide.