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Germany, the UK and the Future of Europe

With enlargement, the map and the dynamics of the European Union will change. There are now more small countries and fewer large ones. The argument to reflect more accurately population size in voting weights in the Council of Ministers becomes stronger. Most of the new entrants will, at least in the immediate future, have more free-trade, pro-market leaning governments than many of the more protective established EU member states. The new countries are also more pro-American. They do not like centralisation and they know that NATO is essential to preserving the peace. And geographically the country at the heart of Europe is now Germany, and no longer France. For historic reasons, France and Germany have provided the engine for the European project, and Britain was seen as the reluctant late-comer. The United Kingdom has gained least from membership of the EU club compared with the other large countries. But this is only part of the story. The only coalitions which have permanence are coalitions ultimately based on selfinterest. Symbolism is important, but meaningless unless underpinned by hard facts and tangible outcomes. The 2003 celebrations between France and Germany to mark 40 years of the Elysee Treaty looked more like a bout of intensive ‘marriage guidance counselling’ than a significant step towards deeper political integration. So what does the future hold for the European Union? There is much talk of a ‘pioneer group’ which will travel in the ‘fast lane’ of Europe. Countries which do not agree with deeper integration for its own sake are warned that if they do not jump on the train, they will be left behind in the ‘slow lane’. These labels are meaningless unless there is some clarity about where the pioneer group wishes to go. The real question is whether deeper political integration and at the same time a geographical widening of the European Union – now 25 and growing – is actually possible, quite apart from whether it is desirable and more importantly, whether it has the support of our citizens. All the major players seem to continue to be wedded to the ‘Cold War model’ of what Europe is all about. This is a mistake as it ignores the way the world around us has changed. Today there are three key questions. First, to what extent do German, French and British interests coincide? Second, does an