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The Natural History of Neighborhood Violence

Few studies have applied life course methods to understand the natural history of crime rates in neighborhoods or other small social areas. Recent research on neighborhood effects has produced evidence of small area variations in child development and maltreatment, teenage sexual behavior and childbearing, school dropout, home ownership, several indicia of health, suicide, drug use, and adolescent delinquency. However, fewer studies have examined neighborhood variation over time in rates of violence and injury. In this study, we estimate the effects of neighborhood disadvantage on cyclical and nonlinear patterns of violence in New York City from 1985 to 2000. The pattern of violence suggests a "slow epidemic," although with meaningful neighborhood differences in the onset, peak and decline of violence that vary according to neighborhood structure. Violence spreads and then contracts in a pattern similar to a contagious disease epidemic. Patterns of spread and change differ for gun violence compared to other forms of violence. The results illustrate the salience of a developmental perspective on neighborhoods, the unique conceptual meaning of gun violence, and the importance of modeling periods of decline as a unique phenomenon independent from the predictors of onset.