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Al-Shabaab as a Transnational Security Threat

This chapter considers the threat posed by Al-Shabaab both in Somalia and to the Horn of Africa. Al-Shabaab is a composite insurgency, which has exploited local grievances by aligning itself with disaffected clans or minority groups. In 2016, it stepped up efforts to co-opt clan leaders through coercion and incentives, even establishing a new Council of Clan Leaders. Since 2010, Al-Shabaab has sought to establish itself in the Horn of Africa, initiating insurgent activities in six countries of the region and conducting attacks in five of them. In 2013, Al-Shabaab established two transnational military wings: one focusing on Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda; the other on Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab's regional unit, Jaysh Ayman, has carried out a campaign of attacks in northern Kenya, while its affiliate Al-Hijra is said to have established a range of networks and operational cells, including in Kenya's prisons.