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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts

This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations and business cycle regularities for a group of 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic time series (including government revenue and expenditure, wages, inflation, money, velocity, private sector credit, international trade, and exchange rates) are presented. The effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries are also analyzed. The robustness of the results is examined using three detrending procedures: a modified Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King band-pass filter, and a nonparametric technique. Overall, the results show some similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (e.g., procyclical real wages and counter cyclical variation in government expenditure), but also some important differences in business cycle characteristics (e.g., countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).