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Combined effect of climate change and human activities on the hydrological processes of an urban river: case study of the Xiaoqing River, China

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to reveal statistical characteristics and exceedance probability of discharge under the combined effect of climate change and human activities. The study is conducted in the Xiaoqing River in Jinan, China, based on data of discharge, land-use types and precipitation from the period 1970–2016. A multivariate joint probability distribution of the data is established to test the univariable, bivariable and trivariable change points. These are then used to calculate and analyse the risk probability of discharge exceeding the specific values under different conditions of precipitation and land-use type. The results show that the change point calculated by trivariate joint distribution can reduce the disturbance of the change point obtained with the univariable or bivariable approach and reflect the changes of various factors in the hydrological processes more objectively. When the land-use type is taken into consideration, the trivariate distribution can reflect the variation of hydrological processes more reasonably.