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Assessment of Future Visions of the International Biomass Market

The decisions made by politicians and companies, as well as the direction of research activities have a significant influence on the future development of the biofuel market. Therefore, it is essential for the decision makers to recognize the main driving forces, future opportunities and possible threats affecting the market, as well as the potential methods to support strategic long-term decisions and renewal of capabilities in the changing business environment. This paper presents clarified visions of possible development routes for international biomass markets. First, the results of a preliminary survey among chosen bioenergy experts in the government, academia and business organizations in Finland provide background knowledge, initial data and the main driving forces of the international bioenergy trade for the development of future scenarios. The scenario process is then utilized as a tool for assessing the requirements of the changing business environment, and identifying the capabilities needed in alternative future scenarios. The alternative scenarios are results of expert workshops which tackled the issue of international bioenergy trade. In the scenario workshops, Finnish and international experts' tacit knowledge and experiences were collected and refined by the means of computerized (group decision support systems) and manual group support methods. The main results of the whole research, i.e. the observed driving forces and the developed scenarios, representing the state of international biomass markets in 2020, provide several implications. For politicians, the recognition of alternative scenarios helps to make the future market environment as favorable as possible to achieve the targets set for the use of biofuels. For the management of companies, the scenarios help to recognize the most efficient business models and value networks in alternative future developing routes