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The Impact of Familiarity on Visualizations of Spatial Uncertainty

While visualization can support understanding complex phenomena, their effectiveness might vary with the recipient’s familiarity with both the phenomenon and the visualization. The current study contrasted interpretations of simulated hurricane paths using student populations from a high frequency hurricane area versus no local hurricane risk. Non-expert understanding of trajectory predictions was supported via two visualizations: common cones of uncertainty and novel dynamic ensembles. General patterns of performance were similar across the two groups. Participants from the high hurricane risk area did show narrower decision thresholds, in both common and novel visualization formats. More variability was consistently considered possible when viewing the dynamic ensemble displays. Despite greater likelihood of experiences with variability of trajectories outside of forecast paths, greater familiarity tended towards narrower interpretations of the need for evacuations within the variability possible. The results suggest an advantage of dynamic ensembles in grasping uncertainty even in populations familiar with hurricanes.