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ASPECTS OF CONSUMERS ’ AND FIRMS ’ ENERGY DECISION-MAKING : A REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM ( NEMS )

NEMS projections of residential and commercial energy demand patterns, as well as predictions about these sectors’ response to various energy policies, are a complex function of model structure, input data, functional form assumptions, and other factors and inputs. The specific assumptions regarding households’ and firms’ decision-making are one important component. This paper reviews research relevant to certain of these assumptions, including studies on demographic influences, the magnitudes and interpretations of hurdle rates for energy technology and efficiency investments, consumers’ and firms’ expectations regarding such variables as future energy prices, and energy price and income elasticities. We recommend possible applications of these findings to further development of the NEMS Residential and Commercial modules.