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The tail of the epidemic and the challenge of tracing the very last Ebola case.

One year ago, on 23 March 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it had been notified ‘of a rapidly evolving outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in forested areas of south-eastern Guinea’. At that time, 49 cases, including 29 deaths had been reported. In the following months and weeks, the outbreak spread to the two neighbouring countries Sierra Leone and Liberia and peaked six months later, in October 2014, with up to 1,500 cases reported on a weekly basis. It was then when several scientific publications presented forecasts for the coming months that ranged from 60,000 EVD cases for the most conservative estimates, up to several hundred thousands of EVD cases [1-4] for the more forthcoming ones. As of 22 March 2015, the toll of the epidemic has been 24,907 reported cases including 10,326 deaths [5]. Despite these far too high numbers, the even higher forecasts were fortunately not attained. This can be partly attributed to the unprecedented mobilisation of resources generated by these high estimates.