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COVID-19 Response – Lessons from Secret Intelligence Failures

ABSTRACT With COVID-19 global deaths surpassing a million lives as of late-September 2020, there are compelling reasons to examine the epidemic warning process and how public health agencies work with governments to translate their information into action. The problem of failures in this warning-policy interface has long been an issue for intelligence agencies worldwide. This paper explores the problem of intelligence failures and applies their lessons to the warning and response to pandemics and other large-scale health emergencies and disasters. This analysis offers lessons for public health warning and response to future pandemic crises. Pandemic response is potentially more complex than traditional national security issues as government players are augmented by nongovernmental organizations, health practitioners, the private sector, and general public of every country in the world. Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic with an international perspective can aid warning and response to coming waves as well as future epidemics. A set of suggestions are provided for epidemic intelligence warning and response to pandemics presenting whole-of-society and transnational approaches. Included are areas for further research including research avenues to prevent and mitigate the future pandemic events.