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STATISTICAL METHODS FOR 1 ESTIMATING HISTORICAL FIRE 2 FREQUENCY FROM MULTIPLE FIRE 3 SCAR DATA

7 The paper considers the statistical analysis of fire-interval charts 8 based on fire-scar data. Estimation of the fire interval (expected time 9 between scar-registering fires at any location) by maximum likelihood 10 is presented. Because of the fact that fires spread, causing a lack of 11 independence in scar registration at distinct sites, an over-dispersed 12 binomial model is used leading to a two-variable quasi-likelihood func13 tion. From this, point estimates, standard errors and approximate 14 confidence intervals for fire interval and related quantities can be de15 rived. Methods of testing for the significance of spatial and temporal 16 differences are also discussed. A simple example using artificial data 17 is given to illustrate the computational steps involved, and an analysis 18 of real fire-scar data is presented. 19