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Foot and Mouth Disease atmospheric dispersion system

Abstract. A decision support system to aid in the risk evaluation of airborne animal
diseases was developed for Ireland. The system's primary objective is to
assist in risk evaluation of the airborne spread of Foot and Mouth Disease
(FMD). The operational system was developed by Met Éireann – the Irish
Meteorological Service and CVERA (Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and
Risk Analysis), in co-operation with NOAA-ARL (National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration – Air Resources Laboratory) and ECMWF (European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The infrastructure largely
relies on the HYSPLIT dispersion model driven by both ECMWF meteorological
forecasts for longer range simulations, and HARMONIE-AROME meteorological
forecasts, a high resolution local area meteorological model, ideal for
shorter range national emissions. Following on from previous work by the
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia as well as the Australian Department of
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, further modifications were made to the
HYSPLIT source code to improve the model's characterisation of the Foot and
Mouth Disease virus. FMD is a highly infectious disease among cloven hoofed
animals that can transmit via airborne means. Biological characteristics
related to temperature, humidity, lifespan as well as atmospheric washout
were all incorporated either through new or existing functionality of the
dispersion model. Combining the model dispersion capabilities of HYSPLIT
with a virus emission model and GIS mapping software with farmland zoning,
the disease dispersion system becomes a powerful analysis and decision
support tool. This airborne animal disease atmospheric dispersion system
helps improve emergency preparedness, as well as aid confinement and
eradication strategies for relevant Irish authorities, during a disease
outbreak.
