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The Welfare Gain from Eliminating Coffee Price Volatility: The Case of Indian Coffee Producers

It is commonly felt that the liberalisation of commodity markets has increased the exposure of commodity producers to price volatility. Using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity framework, we make a distinction between the predictable and unpredictable components of volatility, the latter exposing producers to price risk. By using empirical estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion drawn from the literature, we show that the welfare gain from eliminating this price risk for Indian coffee producers is on average 4.8 percent of their revenue from coffee sales, which for a poor producer may be more than a month’s income. This underlines the need for providing producers access to suitable price-risk management or hedging mechanisms.