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A Bulk Queue Model for the Evaluation of Impact of Headway Variations and Passenger Waiting Behavior on Public Transit Performance

This paper demonstrates a model developed using the Markov chain technique, to ascertain the performance of public transit systems and examine the effects of stochastic variations in passenger arrival, waiting, boarding, and alighting behaviors on the regularity of headway along the route. The model addresses situations in which passengers abandon the system after a certain amount of waiting time. This accounts for the existence of a finite allowance of waiting time from the viewpoint of the passengers. The numerical examples included offer insights into factors that affect the reliability of public transit systems and presented analysis of the system performance measures such as mean counts of passengers served by transit systems, abandoned passengers, and unused space on vehicles. The impact of variability of departure headway on the utilization of public transit systems is illustrated. This model can be used as an analysis tool by transit planners to evaluate selection of system attributes.