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Flood Development Process Forecasting Based on Water Resources Statistical Data

The Ukrainian Carpathians is the territory with a great threat of floods. This is due to natural and climatic conditions of this region, which is characterized by mountainous terrain, high density of hydrological network and a significant amount of precipitation. Amount of precipitation here ranges from 600 mm on plains to 1,600 mm on mountain tops. The main factors of floods occurrence are excessive precipitation, low water permeability of soil and a high proportion of low-permeability rocks (flysch layers with a predominance of clay layers). Therefore, catastrophic floods in the region were also observed in previous centuries, when the anthropogenic impact on the environment, including forest ecosystems, was not comparable with the current one. Any flood is characterized by a period of development, a period of its critical (maximum) intensity and a period of decline. In the present paper, based on the use of methods for approximating the curves and the results of experimental studies of flood waters, a method of mathematical description and forecasting of the flood development is suggested. The recommended direction of further research may be related to the development of experimental means to determine the parameters that affect the process of flood formation.