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Expectations and the Black Market Premium for Dollars in Greece

The purpose of this paper is to gain better understanding of the black market premium - the percentage differential between the black market and the official exchange rate. Tests are used to examine whether the black market premium responds to variations in expectations about the official exchange rate in Greece. To test the impact of anticipated and unanticipated shocks to the official exchange rate on the black market premium, we employ the two-step procedure recommended by Barro (1977) and modified by Hoffman et al. (1984). The main finding of our analysis is that expectations of devaluation do cause movements in the black market premium for Greece and this result suggest that portfolio balance models may be appropriate for understanding the behaviour of the black market premium in Greece.