{'fraction_non_alphanumeric': 0.01892147587511826, 'fraction_numerical': 0.001892147587511826, 'mean_word_length': 5.223529411764706, 'pattern_counts': {'":': 0, '<': 0, '<?xml version=': 0, '>': 0, 'https://': 0, 'lorem ipsum': 0, 'www.': 0, 'xml': 0}, 'pii_count': 0, 'substrings_counts': 0, 'word_list_counts': {'cursed_substrings.json': 0, 'profanity_word_list.json': 0, 'sexual_word_list.json': 0, 'zh_pornsignals.json': 0}}
Heterogeneous Effects of Tariff and Non-Tariff Trade-Policy Barriers in Quantitative General Equilibrium

Structural quantitative work in international economics typically treats trade policy as log-linearly related to trade costs and as exogenous. This paper proposes a structural approach that allows for a non-parametric relationship and treats tariff and non-tariff trade-policy variables as potentially endogenous in log-linear estimation. We document that the data reject the assumption of log-linearity of trade costs in both the tariff- and the non-tariff-policy domains. Specifically, the partial impact of a change in tariffs is strongest for low policy barriers and medium levels of tariffs but generally decreases in the level of both non-tariff barriers and tariff barriers. To give a relevant illustration, we assess the effects of a unilateral increase of US tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points and document that the estimated effects on real bilateral trade-flow changes would be largely underestimated by standard approaches.