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The Algerian economy from ‘oil curse’ to ‘diversification’?

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting, held on 30 November 2016, at which, for the first time in eight years, oil-exporting countries collectively cut production to boost prices, has been hailed as a ‘victory’ for Algerian diplomacy (Les Echos, 2016). Indeed, since 2015 at least, Algiers had been at the heart of the lobbying that started amongst OPEC members and broadened to include non-OPEC oil-producing countries. It even overcame the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran through its negotiating skills, while also convincing Russia to abide by the deal. However, it is less certain that this remarkable diplomatic victory will translate into long-term economic gains. While the rise and stabilisation of oil prices at around $50–60 a barrel certainly buys time for an Algerian economy heavily affected by market fluctuations, given that oil and gas comprise 94% of its exports and generate 60% of the state’s budget, it does not in any way constitute a long-term trend which will allow the government to return to ‘business as usual’. Consumer subsidies will thus most likely continue to be cut and public investment projects to be postponed. To counter Algeria’s decades-long ‘oil curse’, decision-makers have begun to argue for the ‘diversification’ of the economy away from energy production and into industry and agriculture. They are courting Gulf and European partners to invest in the country and they are seeking opportunities to increase exports of non-oil products to the rest of the African continent. Hurdles, however, remain in the way of the Algerian economy’s much-hyped ‘diversification’. The stakes are high at a time when economic difficulties and political uncertainty could trigger unrest.