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COVID-19 and the Global Mining Industry


 The world is currently experiencing a rapid and deep economic slowdown as a result of COVID-19 mitigation efforts. The depth and global nature of this recession, which could turn into a depression, suggests that this pandemic will significantly affect the demand for metals and the global mining sector. The majority of governments consider mining to be essential, meaning that the effect of mitigation on the mining industry and on metal production has been minimal to date. However, increases in metal stocks and decreases in metal prices suggest that the mining industry will be negatively affected by the COVID-19 crisis, at least in the short term.
 This paper presents an overview of the effects of COVID-19 mitigation on the mining sector to date. That includes variations in metal and commodity prices and stocks during the crisis and the outlining of two possible scenarios for COVID-19 related impacts. The first involves persistent supply-chain disruptions, where metal supply is restricted by logistical or COVID-19–related mitigation impacts on intermediates such as smelters and refiners. This restriction of supply could cause higher metal prices but also could cause issues with demand for ores and concentrates that negatively affect individual mining operations. More likely is a second slower demand growth scenario in which a global decrease in demand for metals causes further lowering of metal prices with associated negative economic impacts on mining operations. However, further research into global metal supply chains and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on individual metals is needed. Key remaining unknowns include the influence of mitigation efforts on global metal supply and demand, the effect of these efforts on metal prices, and the geography of supply chains.