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Stochastic dose/risk assessment uncertainty and the concept of potential exposures

Assessments of future potential doses and risks (e.g. in connection with radioactive waste disposal) can be associated with substantial uncertainties. These uncertainties are often incorporated into assessments using stochastic models, and give rise to doses characterised in probabilistic terms. Questions about how doses should be related to risks arise even in the case of deterministic dose assessments. However, results of a probabilistic dose assessment may lead to additional issues when interpreting them or attempting to convert them to risk for regulatory purposes. Some problems are shown to originate from the difference between the meaning of a probabilistic dose value and the definition of potential exposure. Others relate to the appropriate choice of, or approach to compliance with, a regulatory limit. A possible method for setting limits on probabilistic (potential) doses or risks is proposed, based on an accepted technique for determining detection limits.