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Comparison of predicted pesticide concentrations in groundwater from SCI-GROW and PRZM-GW models with historical monitoring data.

BACKGROUND
A key factor in the human health risk assessment process for the registration of pesticides by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an estimate of pesticide concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water. From 1997 to 2011, these estimates were obtained from the EPA empirical model SCI-GROW. Since 2012, these estimates have been obtained from the EPA deterministic model PRZM-GW, which has resulted in a significant increase in estimated groundwater concentrations for many pesticides.


RESULTS
Historical groundwater monitoring data from the National Ambient Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program (1991-2014) were compared with predicted groundwater concentrations from both SCI-GROW (v.2.3) and PRZM-GW (v.1.07) for 66 different pesticides of varying environmental fate properties. The pesticide environmental fate parameters associated with over- and underprediction of groundwater concentrations by the two models were evaluated.


CONCLUSION
In general, SCI-GROW2.3 predicted groundwater concentrations were close to maximum historically observed groundwater concentrations. However, for pesticides with soil organic carbon content values below 1000 L kg(-1) and no simulated hydrolysis, PRZM-GW overpredicted, often by greater than 100 ppb. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.