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Predicting the Outcome of an Illness or Condition

The term “prognosis” refers to a prediction of how a disease will progress. Parents of a child recently diagnosed with asthma may inquire about their child’s future symptoms. Similarly, parents of a child with epilepsy might wonder how their child will perform in school. These are both questions about prognosis. While diagnostic studies help to determine presence or absence of disease, prognostic studies examine those with disease and report outcomes over time. Studies about prognosis help clinicians understand the natural course of a disease and may be useful to guide clinical decision making. For example, in the article on page 52, Huang, et al inquire about the prognosis for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in regards to cardiovascular disease.

Patient characteristics that help predict disease outcome are known as prognostic factors. The term prognostic factor is not synonymous with risk factor. A risk factor is a cause of …