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The North Korean famine and its demographic impact.

Although the worst effects of the North Korean famine in the mid-1990s have apparently subsided the actual demographic toll of the famine remains uncertain owing to a lack of reliable data. Several reports based on officially released crude death rates for 1995 and 1998 inferred about 220000 excess deaths while figures based on other evidence are far higher (2.6 million between 1995 and 2000). This paper aims to narrow the range of uncertainty regarding the demographic impact of the famine. Using demographic models it shows how these two direct sources of information on mortality produce contradictory estimates at the more extreme ends of the range. On the basis of population projections model and other indirect sources of evidence it is estimated that famine-related deaths in the country most likely numbered between 600000 and 1 million in the period from 1995 to 2000. These indirect sources of evidence include Chinas mortality experience during its Great Leap Forward and several surveys of child malnutrition in North Korea.