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Development of prediction models for determining minimum factor of safety against slope failure in clayey soils

Abstract This paper presents the development of prediction models to determine the minimum factor of safety against slope failure in clayey soils. A total of 161 cases with different geometric and shear strength parameters were analyzed using the well established analytical methods developed by Fellenius, Bishop, Janbu, and Spencer. These methods were employed to calculate the factor of safety for each case based on its geometric and shear strength parameters. The input data for each case and the corresponding results obtained from the analysis are used to develop mathematical equations to predict the minimum factor of safety for each method. It was found that the predicted models results are in a good agreement with the analytical results with correlation coefficients around 0·996 in the average. Majority of the predicted values of factor of safety using these simplified models are within ±10% of the analytically calculated ones. Therefore, such simplified models could be used as a valid approach for predicting the stability of clayey soil slopes with high degree of accuracy.