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Direct imaging mission planning with precursor radial velocity data: process and validation

The National Academies’ Astronomy and Astrophysics 2020 decadal report gave high priority to a space-based flagship telescope that could directly image Earth-like exoplanets. The mission concept studies for such a mission suggested using the radial velocity exoplanet detection technique to inform when observations should be made. This idea shows promise but the exoplanet yield estimates thus far have not simulated the full process of fitting orbital parameters to an RV curve and attempting to make observations based on the fitted parameters. Current yield estimates assume what the final error on an exoplanet’s orbital parameters will be, which ignores potential relationships between fitted parameters. Here we show how to calculate the probability of directly imaging an exoplanet detected via radial velocity, explain how that metric can be validated through yield estimates, and demonstrate improvements to tools necessary for the yield calculations.