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Modeling no-notice mass evacuation using a dynamic traffic flow optimization model

This paper presents a network transformation and demand specification approach for no-notice evacuation modeling. The research is aimed at formulating the Joint Evacuation Destination–Route-Flow-Departure (JEDRFD) problem of a no-notice mass evacuation into a system optimal dynamic traffic assignment model. The proposed network transformation technique permits the conversion of a typical transportation planning network to an evacuation network configuration in which a hot zone, evacuation destinations, virtual super-safe node and connectors are established. Combined with a demand specification method, the JEDRFD problem is formulated as a single-destination cell-transmission-model-based linear programming model. The advantage of the proposed model compared with prior studies in the literature is that the multi-dimensional evacuation operation decisions are jointly obtained at the optimum of the JEDRFD model. The linear single-destination structure of the proposed model implies another advantage in computational efficiency. A numerical example is given to illustrate the modeling procedure and solution properties. Real-time operational issues and data requirements are also discussed.