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The Impact of Export Restraints on Rising Grain Prices

Commodity prices in maize and wheat have risen by more than 50 percent since 2006. While much of this increase reflects increasing demand and some constraints on supply, another factor contributing to the rising prices is the export restraints implemented by major grain exporting countries, such as China, Ukraine, and Argentina. While these measures are intended to keep domestic prices low, they tighten global supply and put upward pressure on prices for importers. This report presents quantitative evidence of the impact of export restrictions on the global agricultural market by evaluating these recent cases of export restraints using available monthly and annual trade data. When an exporting country enacts restrictive measures, their importing partners must often purchase grain from other exporters, causing more intense competition for the remaining available supplies. The impact of export restraints in these cases suggests that governments should use them cautiously.