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[A cohort study on the correlation between alanine aminotransferase trajectories and new-onset metabolic fatty liver disease].

Objective: To explore the correlation between alanine aminotransferase (ALT) trajectories and new-onset metabolic fatty liver disease (MAFLD) to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of MAFLD. Methods: The study cohort was composed of 3 553 subjects who met the inclusion criteria in the cohort study of the Henan physical examination population. According to the ALT levels of the subjects' physical examination from 2017-2019, three different ALT trajectory groups were determined by R LCTMtools, namely low-stable group, medium-stable group, and high-stable group. The incidence of MAFLD during physical examination in 2020 was followed up, the cumulative incidence rate in each group was calculated by product-limit method, and Cox proportional hazards regression model analyzed the correlation between different ALT trajectories and new-onset MAFLD. Results: The incidence rate of MAFLD parallelly increased with the increase of ALT locus, which was 6.93%, 15.42%, and 19.05%, respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). After adjusting for multiple confounding factors, such as gender, waist circumference, blood pressure, BMI, fasting blood sugar, and blood lipid by Cox proportional hazards regression model, the risks of MAFLD in ALT medium-stable and the high-stable group were still 1.422 times (95%CI:1.115-1.813) and 1.483 times (95%CI:1.040-2.114) of low-stable ALT group (P<0.05). Conclusions: The risk of MAFLD parallelly increases with the increase of ALT level in the normal long-term range. it is necessary to carry out the intervention for MAFLD with long-term average high value to avoid the progress of MAFLD disease to achieve the early prevention on MAFLD.