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WHAT IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF LIFETIME HEALTH CARE COSTS FROM AGE 65

Medical and long-term care costs represent a substantial uninsured risk for most retired households. In 2007, spending on Medicare premiums and copayments among married couples age 65 and over averaged $7,600. But such statistics are of limited value to households trying to determine how much to set aside for health care costs in retirement or how to manage wealth decumulation during retirement. Households care not only about average costs, but also about the risk of incurring unusually high costs. Furthermore, calculations of the distribution of health care costs incurred by households in any particular year tell us little about lifetime risk unless we also know the extent to which the same individuals are incurring high health care costs every year.