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Bayesian accounts and black swans: Questioning the erotetic theory of delusional thinking

Parrott and Koralus argue that a particular cognitive factor – “impaired endogenous question raising” – offers a parsimonious account of three delusion-related phenomena: (1) the development of the Capgras delusion; (2) evidence that patients with schizophrenia outperform healthy control participants on a conditional reasoning task; and (3) evidence that deluded individuals “jump to conclusions”. In this response, I assess these claims, and raise my own questions about the “erotetic” theory of delusional thinking.