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The Effect of Euro/Dollar Parity on the Export of Upper Middle Income Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

In this study, the hypothesis that the changes in Euro / Dollar parity affects the export amounts of the economies in real terms, whether the changes in the currencies of the two economies, which constitute almost half of the world economy in total, have a significant effect on the foreign trade balance of other countries; if it is, it is aimed to verify by what extent and in what direction it is. Nineteen upper middle income countries with the largest export volume were selected as the sample of the study. The 2000 - 2017 interval was analyzed with multi - panel regression analysis. As a result, the Euro / Dollar parity was statistically significant and the changes in the said variable affected the exports of the sample countries in the same direction. In addition to the Euro / Dollar parity, the gross domestic product, domestic loan amount and domestic savings ratio were also statistically significant and they changed the exports simultaneously with the changes that occurred in them. This result is mainly attributable to the exports of the upper middle income countries; and that the increase in Euro / Dollar parity has led to an increase in profit margins by lowering imported input costs and making exports more attractive.