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A comparison of model‐simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures

Estimates of annual‐mean stratospheric temperature trends over the past twenty years, from a wide variety of models, are compared both with each other and with the observed cooling seen in trend analyses using radiosonde and satellite observations. The modelled temperature trends are driven by changes in ozone (either imposed from observations or calculated by the model), carbon dioxide and other relatively well‐mixed greenhouse gases, and stratospheric water vapour.