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Testing Alternative Theories of Financial Decision Making: A Survey Study With Lottery Bonds

We present the results of a simple, easily replicable, survey study based on lottery bonds. It is aimed at testing whether agents make investment decisions according to expected utility, cumulative prospect theory or optimal expectations theory, when they face skewed distributions of returns. We show that more than 55% of the 245 participants obey optimal expectations theory. They choose a distribution of payoffs dominated for second-order stochastic dominance and which would not be chosen according to cumulative prospect theory, for a large range of parameter values. As by-products of this study, we illustrate that agents use heuristics when they choose numbers at random and have, in general, a poor opinion about the rationality of others.