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Economic consequences of HIV/AIDS in India.

BACKGROUND
HIV/AIDS is one of the pressing public health problems in India. Available information indicates a rising trend of infection. The impact of HIV/AIDS on the economic front is important as it affects mainly the young, who are in the reproductive age group. We estimated the cost of productivity losses in a lifetime attributable to HIV-related mortality in India in the population of the year 1991 at current HIV infection rates.


METHODS
The analysis was done from the societal viewpoint, adopting a discount rate of 5%. To estimate the loss in person-years due to HIV/AIDS, two scenarios were considered. Firstly, the population without HIV/AIDS, and secondly, the population with HIV/AIDS. The difference in person-years lived by the cohort in both populations would provide the person-years lost due to HIV/AIDS. To calculate the person-years lived in each, the life table approach was used. The demographic data from the 1991 Census were used. The population was divided into 15 five-year cohorts and the current age-specific death rates were used. Assumptions regarding HIV incidence rates in urban and rural areas in different age groups were made based on the available data and consensus of experts. The estimate was first done for a cohort of 100,000 population for rural and urban areas and then extrapolated to the population in the different age groups. To convert the person-years lost into monetary terms, minimum wages were estimated to be Rs 14,460 per annum.


RESULTS
The total undiscounted life-years lost due to HIV/ AIDS by the present population of India will be 238.4 million years-123.7 million years for urban and 114.7 million years for rural areas. On an average this is 0.4 years lost per person. The life-years lost per case of HIV was 44.4 years. Assuming minimum wages of Rs 14460 as the value of one year, the total economic loss is Rs 3447 billion. The productivity loss per case is Rs 642,024 (US$ 20,710). For an estimated national per capita income of Rs 4252.4 the total economic loss is Rs 1014 billion. If a discount rate of 5% is applied for future losses then the total potential years of life lost will be 23 million-11.3 million for urban and 11.7 million for rural areas. In monetary terms this will be Rs 332.6 billion by minimum wages assumption, and 97.8 billion if the national per capita income is assumed to be the cost of one year.


CONCLUSION
HIV/AIDS imposes a significant burden on the economic front. The productivity losses are likely to be an underestimate as the costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS patients, prevention programmes and labour costs have not been taken into account. To decide whether HIV/AIDS needs a high priority int he Indian context, it is necessary to have similar estimates for other important diseases such as tuberculosis and cancer.