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US sanctions prompt Russia disengagement on Iran


 Subject
 Russia's response to US sanctions on Iranian oil.
 
 
 Significance
 US President Donald Trump's announcement that his country was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and imposing "zero-tolerance" sanctions on the country's oil gave rise to fears in Washington that Russia would seek to undermine the restrictions. Five months since the sanctions came into effect, these worries seem unjustified: several Russian hydrocarbons firms have withdrawn from Iran, and Moscow's oil-for-goods programme is showing no signs of renewal.
 
 
 Impacts
 The US administration is likely to renew some of the eight six-month waivers on Iranian oil purchase in May.
 Rising US crude output is expected to top 12 million barrels this year, keeping pressure on Russian and Saudi producers.
 Azerbaijan will develop transport infrastructure as the overland link between Russia and Iran without becoming a close ally of either.
