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Electric vehicle forecast for a large West Coast utility

Over the next few years, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) will become readily-available to consumers. This paper describes the methods, procedures and results from an analysis of the likely near term (10 year) market penetration of electric vehicles (EV) for a large West Coast utility — one of the first markets where these vehicles are expected to be bought in large numbers. The impact of EVs on an electricity system depends heavily on the rates at which PHEVs and BEVs penetrate the market. This study provides realistic projections of the rates of EV market penetration given various types of incentives and utility information programs. It also highlights many of the market barriers that will stand in the way of some of the technologies that have the largest impacts on utility infrastructure costs (e.g., high voltage charging stations at home or in public). The findings from the analysis of the effects of incentives and information programs will be useful to utilities who are interested in encouraging growth in EV market penetration. In addition, the methods and analysis procedures described in this paper can be used by any utility to assess the likely size of the EV market in their jurisdiction in the next 10 years.