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Analysis of Socio-Hydrological Evolution Processes Based on a Modeling Approach in the Upper Reaches of the Han River in China

The Han River is the water source of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the “Han River to Wei River Water Diversion Project” in China. In order to ensure that the water quality and quantity are sufficient for the water diversion project, the natural forest protection project, river chief system and other measures have been implemented in the Han River by the government. At the same time, several large reservoirs have been built in the Han River basin and perform the functions of water supply and hydropower generation, which is an important type of clean power. Under the influence of human activities, the coupling interaction between humans and water in the upper reach of the Han River drives the socio-hydrological evolution process. In this study, from the perspective of socio-hydrology, a model of socio-hydrological evolution (SHE) in the Han River in southern Shaanxi was built to simulate the potential evolution path of the socio-hydrological system and determine possible measures for the sustainable governance of the river basin. By adjusting the model parameters, four future scenarios were established: natural continuation, economic development, environmental protection and industrial adjustment scenarios. Taking 2018 as the base year, the evolution of socio-hydrology in the upper reaches of the Han River was predicted under the four scenarios from 2019 to 2045. The simulation results show that: (1) In the entire study area, except for domestic water, the water consumption of other departments show an upward or stable trend. There are differences in water consumption changes in the upper and lower sections, which are related to the different socio-economic conditions. (2) Comparing different development scenarios, the industrial adjustment and environmental protection scenarios are superior to the other scenarios. Natural continuation and economic development scenarios appear to be unfavorable for the sustainability of water resources and the economy. (3) In addition, based on the development scenarios, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as reducing the irrigation water quota, appropriately adjusting the industrial structure and promoting the growth of the urban population and the development of urbanization.