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Paving the Way to a Sustainable Heating Sector

Ulaanbaatar's heating sector is struggling to meet accelerating demand growth. Over the past twodecades, population growth in Mongolia's capital city has increased exponentially, mainly due to rapid rural-to-urban migration, and it is expected to reach 1.9 million by 2035. With urbanization and economic growth, new buildings are being built at a rapid pace, requiring connections to the district heating (DH) network. Over the next decade, it is projected that urban heating demand will grow by an average annual rate of 5–6 percent. At the same time, the DH network—once Ulaanbaatar's principal heat supply—is deteriorating. About two-fifths of the population (some 120,000 households) are supplied from the DH network. However, the system is dilapidated, resulting from a lack of investments for needed rehabilitation and upgrading in past decades. Owing to high water losses, the quality of replenishment water has not been adequately maintained to prevent corrosion; thus, piping is typically quite old and corroded. The total length of transmission pipelines is about 130 km (dual pipe) with pipe diameters in a range of 200-1,200 mm. It is estimated that 50 percent of the transmission pipelines are in poor technical condition, urgently requiring replacement. The secondary (distribution) network, with a total trench length of about 226 km, has a variety of owners and operators and also requires major rehabilitation and replacement. Tariffs, which are set below cost-recovery levels, exacerbate the sector's financial distress and contribute to its decay. Despite recent adjustments, consumer tariffs remain lower than the cost-recovery level, requiring state subsidies for sector operators and cross-subsidies at various points along the entire heat supply chain. Tariff-related cost allocations between electricity and heat customers lead to indirect subsidies for residential DH customers. The average DH price of 0.8 US Dollars per GJ (2014 figure) is approximately 10–20 times lower than in such Eastern European cities as Vilnius or Warsaw, and even lower than in other European cities. The sector's 2013 Master Plan estimated that a 130 percent increase in the heat tariff would be needed to achieve full cost recovery. The situation has changed little in recent years.