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Clinical Prediction of Functional Outcome After Ischemic Stroke: The Surprising Importance of Periventricular White Matter Disease and Race

Background and Purpose— We sought to build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk restratification as comorbid events accumulate. Methods— A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months poststroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3-month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Results— Poststroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short-term poststroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. Conclusions— We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation.