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Variability based surgical scheduling: A simulation approach

Variability in the duration of surgical procedures is one cause of delayed start times for scheduled procedures in operating theaters. While historical procedure durations are frequently used in assigning surgery times to schedule surgery blocks, taking into account the level of variability associated with specific procedures is not commonly utilized in creating surgery schedules in a multiple room operating suite. This article proposes a new methodology for surgical scheduling which sequences procedures based on duration groups and their level of variability. Discrete event simulation was used to model and validate the ratio of delayed starts versus on-time starts due to incorrectly estimated procedure length using a hospital's current scheduling algorithm and historical data. A statistical analysis was used to compare the proposed methodology against the current scenario to determine if delayed starts can be reduced by sequencing procedures based on duration variability.