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Modeling the social dynamics of online discussion sites

This paper describes an investigation of the social dynamics in an online discussion group. In particular, the phenomenon of emerging status or social rank is considered. In this study, the concept of giving attention or "grooming" is used to identify social interactions. Furthermore the concept of the "groom balance" is introduced as a way to describe the relative degree of social grooming within the group. By constructing the groom balance graph, the social rank of the group members over time can be visualized. The analysis was performed for an online discussion group with 187 members and 1604 postings. A validation showed good correlation with status as judged by test persons who read printouts of the postings. A simulation model was developed that replicate the social structure found in the observed data. The model is probabilistic and programmed in Mathematica. The modeling shows that the emergent social structure can be explained by a few micro-level interactions: an individual who post but do not receive any attention is less likely to post again, an individual with a high current groom balance will be more likely to be groomed, and an individual that receive little attention from the group is more likely to leave the group.