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Establishing Vertical Separation Models for Vulnerable Coastlines in Developing Territories

Abstract Vertical separation models are valuable for coastal zone management and protection against the effects of climate change. To date, the development of such models has been undertaken in areas where long-term sea level measurements exist and there are resources for extensive offshore bathymetric and Global Navigation Satellite Systems surveys. Many small island developing states and other resource constrained territories host vulnerable coastal zones and would benefit from such models, however, financial constraints and data sparsity make it difficult. This article describes the establishment of a vertical separation model using an amalgamation of long- and short-term sea level measurements with hydrodynamic modeling. With existing vertical separations at only two coastal points for comparison, the model was designed to include a tidal prediction element which allowed for validation against sparse independently observed sea levels. Considering that unmodeled influences on sea levels in the study area can exceed 0.2 m at times, the method was tested against independently observed sea levels and can be considered successful with variances in the range of 1.3–4.5% of the average tidal range for the study area. This research provides the means of addressing a significant need in developing territories where long-term sea level records are unavailable and resource deficiencies exist.