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The Indian Monsoon in a changing climate

As part of the larger-scale Asian monsoon, the monsoon over India is formed due to intense solar heating in late spring as the solar maximum moves north from the equator. Northern Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmed, along with the plains of northern India and the Tibetan Plateau. This latter region lies at an elevation of over 4500m on average, meaning that there is strong warming over a significant depth in the troposphere. The Indian Ocean south of the equator is comparatively cooler and so temperature and pressure gradients are formed from south to north. The pressure gradient leads to a crossequatorial flow, which, when combined with the Earth’s rotation, yields the familiar C-shape of boreal summer monsoon winds in the lower troposphere as seen in Figure 1. These winds carry moisture evaporated from the warm Indian Ocean to converge over the mountains on the west coast of India, before continuing to the Bay of Bengal. There they turn north and towards the west, around the low pressure “monsoon trough” of northern India, where more rain falls. The distinct difference between winter and summer wind and precipitation patterns is what characterises the monsoon over this region.