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The changing patterns of disease.

The pattern of disease in New Zealand is changing and will continue to do so. Some trends are predictable, while others (such as the epidemic of AIDS) may be unexpected. Analysis of past improvements in health suggests that medical research would be more productive if greater attention were paid to the external influences and personal behaviour which are the chief determinants of health. Apart from such general implications, analysis of the changing patterns of disease is vital as a stimulus and guide for medical research of all kinds. More effective monitoring of disease trends in New Zealand will require improvement in the quality and timeliness of routine health statistics, and training of adequate numbers of epidemiologists to analyse and interpret the data. Such developments are essential if medical research is to make a full contribution to the health of New Zealanders.