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The High-Frequency Response of Energy Prices to Monetary Policy: Understanding the Empirical Evidence

This paper examines the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on energy prices using an event study with intraday data. Three measures for monetary policy surprises are used: 1) the surprise change to the current federal funds target rate, 2) the surprise component to the future path of policy, and 3) the unanticipated announcement of future large-scale asset purchases (LSAP). Estimation results show that monetary policy surprises have economically important and highly significant effects on the level and volatility of energy futures prices and their trading volumes. I find that, on average, a hypothetical unanticipated 100-basis-point hike in the federal funds target rate is associated with roughly a 3% decrease in West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. I also document that, in a narrow window around the FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve's LSAP1 and LSAP2 programs have a cumulative financial market impact on crude oil equivalent to an unanticipated cut in the federal funds target rate of 156 basis points.