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Drivers of global and national CO2 emissions changes 2000–2017

ABSTRACT Understanding the drivers of CO2 emissions changes is useful in supporting future mitigation. This study applies a log-mean divisia index decomposition to assess four drivers of CO2 emissions changes – population, income, energy intensity and carbon intensity – in 138 countries worldwide over the period 2000–2017. At the global level, income and population are the main drivers of increased emissions over time, with contributions of 116% and 60% to global CO2 emissions changes, respectively. Energy intensity is the key mitigation driver, with a contribution of −80%. Although carbon intensity increased CO2 emissions overall over the period 2000–2017 with a contribution of 4%, it has started to reduce emissions in recent years. China, the United States of America, the European Union, India and Russia are the five regions responsible for most changes in global emissions. The five regions together contribute −73% of the energy intensity effect, and China’s income contribution is 83% in relation to the total of 116%. At the national level, in 2017, CO2 emissions returned to below 2000 levels in 62% of Annex I (developed) countries but increased in 88% of non-Annex I (mostly developing) countries. Among the 35 countries realizing CO2 emissions reductions, 24 were driven primarily by energy intensity, six by carbon intensity, three by economic recession, and one by population decrease. Among the 103 countries with increasing CO2 emissions, 63 were driven primarily by income, 26 by population, nine by carbon intensity increase, and five by energy intensity increase. Our analysis emphasizes the necessity of considering differences in national development stages when formulating climate change mitigation policies. Key policy insights Over the period 2000–2017, at the global and national levels, CO2 emissions increases were driven mainly by economic development and population growth, and mitigation was driven mainly by energy intensity improvement. Improving energy intensity and carbon intensity is the key to mitigating CO2 emissions. Carbon intensity is expected to play an increasing role in the future. In over one-third of Annex I countries, CO2 emissions increased from 2000 to 2017. To meet the Paris Agreement goals, Annex I countries will need to enhance mitigation ambition by further tapping the mitigation potentials of energy and carbon intensity. In accordance with national circumstances, development needs and international support, non-Annex I countries should achieve low-carbon economic and energy transitions and peak CO2 emissions as early as possible.