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Job Turnover and the Returns to Seniority

In this article, we match firm data to individual work history files to simultaneously estimate the wage and employment duration processes of a longitudinal sample of 2 million French workers employed in roughly 1 million firms and followed over 20 years. The particular structure of the dataset allows us to distinguish between the impact of job search and labor demand indicators on wages and employment at the job level. The model allows for correlated individual and job unobserved heterogeneity. Controlling for job matching, we find that returns to seniority are close to zero.