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Non-linear Multipliers for Risk Interactions

The purpose of this chapter is to mathematically describe three types of risk interactions (internal risk amplifications, knock-on, and compounding) associated with the static and dynamic PSS–PDS mismatches. This is required to factor all relevant instances of risk interactions into Monte Carlo models. It is shown that corresponding three types of non-linearity parameters should be introduced to form non-linear (quadratic) multipliers for interacting risks. In the linear case (non-interacting risks) all non-linearity parameters are equal to zero and all non-linear multipliers are equal to one. As a risk may take part in several interactions it has several non-linear multipliers. Required non-linearity parameters and non-linear multipliers for opportunities are also developed. When all relevant instances of risk interactions are factored to a project risk register, they describe an aggregated impact of the affinity of interacting risks (dynamic risk pattern) on project schedule and cost objectives.