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Emerging economies and the business cycle

When analyzing time series of the GDPs of emerging economies, first we find that there appears to be a relatively close synchronization with industrialized countries’ cycles. An old saying in Mexico, attributed to our last dictator of the nineteenth century, is that when the United States gets a cold, Mexico gets pneumonia. I think the saying is still valid, and it describes this aspect of the synchronization between emerging market economies and industrialized countries. A second finding is that the time series of GDP for emerging economies exhibit greater volatility, as measured by the standard deviations of such series. In addition, there is a crucial difference between the depths of recessions in emerging economies and in industrial ones. While in the 1970-95 period the typical recession in industrialized countries registered a reduction in GDP of approximately 2 percent, in Latin America the average fall in GDP during a recession amounted to 8 percent. So at least in Latin America, instead of the typical expansion/ recession cycle common in industrialized countries, the business cycle has more extreme values of crisis and recovery. Therefore, macroeconomic policies in emerging markets are focused on avoiding a possible