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[Is the rise in the female participation rate linked to fertility rate trends?].


 France's total fertility rate declined from 2.9 in 1964 to 1.8-1.9 in 1975 and to 1.65-1.7 currently, while the activity rate for women 25-49 years old increased from 42% to 80% in the same period. The decline of fertility at a time of increased female labor force participation has led to questions regarding causality. Whether the association is purely a result of coincidence or whether it reflects a causal relation in one direction or the other is not known. This work proposes a simple model to study interdependence that does not assume either that the decline of large families led to increased participation rates, or that the increasing desire of women to work led to smaller families. The log linear model utilized was applied to data from 5 censuses for the years 1962, 1968, 1975, 1982, and 1990. Women 35-39 years old were studied on the assumption that their activity rates would represent choices over the life cycle, and that their families would be nearly complete. The three model parameters can be interpreted as a preference for activity over inactivity (whether or not the need for a second paycheck was a factor in the decision to work), a preference for large families, and the degree of incompatibility between economic activity and motherhood. The results indicate that family sizes larger than two children were a minority preference in all periods studied, and that the intensity of incompatibility between work and having children has varied only slightly. The preference for work has on the other hand increased rapidly. This finding is consistent with the steep rise observed in female activity rates for all family sizes.
