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From warrior regimes to illicit sovereigns: Ulster loyalist paramilitaries and the security implications for Brexit

ABSTRACT The United Kingdom’s (UK) decision to leave the European Union (EU) has been felt most acutely in Ireland. One group specifically impacted by this decision is Ulster Loyalism. With a historic ‘warrior regime’ role in defending its community, both from irredentist Irish Nationalism and British government subterfuge, how Loyalism responds to Brexit is uncertain. Historically, Loyalism has promoted political violence to stymie UK strategic objectives in Ireland. Therefore, any attempt to diminish the Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland raises the prospect of a rejuvenated loyalist terror campaign being directed at those it deems a threat to the loyalist community and their territorial sovereignty in Northern Ireland. In its current ‘post-ceasefire’ guise, there appears to be no immediate threat of a loyalist return to violence. Yet, with Sea Border and a nascent ‘Shared Island’ approach enacted by the Irish Government, promoting a regulatory alignment with the EU, Northern Ireland is once again at a crossroads. How Ulster Loyalism responds to such developments then posits a key question for both UK and EU intelligence agencies, on how they respond to any upsurge in loyalist paramilitary violence in a post-Brexit era.