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Residual Life Prediction of Rotating Equipment in Thermal Power Plants Using Online Estimation with Forgetting Factor

In this paper, an online deterioration prediction and residual life prediction method is proposed for maintenance of rotating equipment in thermal power plants. The condition of rotating equipment is inspected by vibration measurement. A mathematical model for the deterioration of the rotating equipment is derived in order to predict the future condition of the rotating equipment. The residual life of the rotating equipment is predicted by deterioration prediction using online estimation of the model parameters with a forgetting factor. The effectiveness of the residual life prediction method is assured by applying it to actual vibration data of rotating equipment.