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Gold Price Analysis and Prediction based on Pearson Correlation Analysis

The impact of global trade frictions and the outbreak of COVID-19 around the world have contributed to a sharp rise in the international gold price. As gold is both a currency asset and a commodity, its price is influenced by multiple factors complicated. Pearson correlation coefficient is widely used to measure the degree of correlation between two variables and ARIMA is used to predict time series problems. Selecting data from 2000 to 2020, this paper aims to examine the main factors affecting the gold price with Pearson correlation analysis and ARIMA model. Based on the conclusion that gold price is significantly affected by oil, the S&P 500 and the DXY, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also considered as an important factor which will cause gold price fluctuation in the forecast analysis.