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Resolving Simultaneity Bias: Using Features to Estimate Causal Effects in Competitive Games

In this paper, we walk through an application of the instrumental variables (IV) and control function approach (CF) estimators to identify the causal effect of in-game features on the probability of winning. Without use of IV or CF, typical methods of identifying the effect of in-game features (like player performance) will be strongly biased. Practical uses of unbiased estimates include predictive game balance when introducing new heroes and features, enhanced estimation of player rankings, and better interpretation of individual player statistics.