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Factor Screening using Bayesian Active Learning and Gaussian Process Meta-Modelling

In this paper we propose a data-efficient Bayesian active learning framework for factor screening, which is important when dealing with systems which are expensive to evaluate, such as combat simulations. We use Gaussian Process meta-modelling with the Automatic Relevance Determination covariance kernel, which measures the importance of each factor by the inverse of their associated length-scales in the kernel. This importance measures the degree of non-linearity in the simulation response with respect to the corresponding factor. We initially place a prior over the length-scale values, then use the estimated posterior to select the next datum to simulate which maximises the mutual entropy between the length-scales and the unknown simulation response. Our goal-driven Bayesian active learning strategy ensures that we are data-efficient in discovering the correct values of the length-scales compared to either a random-sampling or uncertainty-sampling based approach. We apply our method to an expensive combat simulation and demonstrate the superiority of our approach.