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Gestational Age as a Predictor of Pregnancy Outcome After Repeat Cerclage


 Background: The role of repeat cerclage (RC) as a remedy for patients with prolapsed membranes after prior cerclage remains controversial. We aimed to investigate whether gestational age (GA) could be used as a valuable factor for predicting pregnancy outcome following RC in women with prolapsed membranes after prior cerclage. Methods: We retrospectively investigated the clinical data of 29 patients who underwent RC resulting from prolapsed membrane after prior cerclage. Receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and univariate analysis were performed to determine predictive factors. Patients were divided into two groups according to GA at RC, GA<24.2 weeks and GA≥24.2 weeks. Pregnancy outcomes were compared between groups.Results: The mean GA at prior cerclage was 16.5 weeks; mean GA at RC was 23.6 weeks. The mean GA at delivery was 27.8 weeks with a 69.0% neonatal survival rate. ROC curve and univariate analysis demonstrated that GA at RC was significantly predictive for neonatal survival (area under the curve: 0.928; p=0.000). Using a GA cut-off of ≥24.2 weeks at RC, the sensitivity and specificity of predicting neonatal survival were 93.75% and 61.54%, respectively. There was a significant difference in neonatal survival rate between the GA <24.2 weeks group and GA ≥24.2 weeks group (38.5% vs. 93.8%, p=0.003). Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed a lower incidence of neonatal death in the GA ≥24.2 weeks group (6.3%) compared with GA <24.2 weeks group (61.5%, p=0.023).Conclusions: GA could be a valuable factor for predicting pregnancy outcome post-RC in women with prolapsed membrane after prior cerclage.