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Downfall of a Dominant Party: The Likud and the 2006 Election

The elections of 2006 were noteworthy largely for the failure of the electorate to give a clear answer on a number of key questions. As expected, the Kadima party of Ehud Olmert was the winner, but the dimensions of the victory were far smaller than had been expected. Supporters of the Convergence Plan of Kadima could not claim to have been given a clear mandate for the implementation of their plan. Amir Peretz’s Labour Party, in a campaign focusing almost exclusively on the party’s socioeconomic programme, avoided electoral humiliation, while shedding a small number of seats. Perhaps the only clear and unambiguous message sent by the electorate in the 2006 polls, however, was their clear rejection of the Likud. 2006 saw the Likud fall to 12seats, placing it equal towith theultra-Orthodox Shas and just ahead of the rival right-wing list of Yisrael Beiteinu, led by former Likud activist Avigdor Lieberman. This was an astonishing result that ended a period of just under 30 years in which Likud was the dominant party in the Israeli political system. In the period 1977–2006, Likud was a participant in government for all but seven years. In its 22-year total period of government, the party was the leading party for all but, arguably, the 1984–86 period. Thus, Likud may fairly be described as having been the dominant force in a two-party system for the last 30 years. The 2006 election saw the party lose this position, and it was reduced to the status of a second-tier political force. For Likud, however, the 2006 polls were the culmination of a long process in which a series of factors came together to deal the party a heavy blow. Many of these factors can be discerned as dilemmas that the Likud faced in earlier election campaigns. In the past, however, the party was able to more successfully navigate these issues.