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The determinants of mortgage defaults and prepayments

This paper applies the logistic regression models and performs an empirical study by dividing the factors that affect defaults and prepayments into the personal factors of the borrowers (including whether the borrowers provide sources of repayments, sexes, ages, and marital statuses), contract terms (including loan maturities, loan amounts, interest rates, percentage of loans against collaterals), and external factors (such as the number of times when the real estate price indexes going up and down). According to the empirical findings, the factors that have significant influences on defaults are the provision of repayment sources (negative), borrowing interest rates (positive), the percentage of loans (positive), marital statuses (negative), the number of times when the real estate price indexes going up (positive), and the number of times when the real estate price indexes going down (negative); the factors that have significant influences on prepayments are the provision of repayment sources (negative), loan maturities (positive), borrowing interest rates (positive), the number of times when the real estate price indexes going up (negative), and the number of times when the real estate price indexes going down (positive).