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US Options in Syria

Abstract: This article considers the military choices for the United States as it seeks both to terminate the Syrian civil war on favorable terms and to contain the conflict within Syria's borders. However, few military options promise a reasonable chance to influence the Syrian civil war itself. Thus, America should focus its military and other policy instruments on containing the crisis. That is also a complex problem, but a worse one would be the Syrian civil war spreading to the larger eastern Mediterranean region. ********** The United States has important interests in the Eastern Mediterranean region and because Syria is a pivotal country in that area, American national decisionmakers must consider whether and how to use military power to defend those interests. The horrifying moral costs of the Asad regime, and the danger of a failed or jihadist Syrian state, make the ongoing Syrian conflict harmful to US and regional partner country interests. The other danger is the possibility the conflict will increasingly spread to Syria's neighbors. The human cost alone is staggering: over 117,000 dead, hundreds of thousands wounded, over six million displaced, ruined cities, half the population in need of food, and two instances of chemical weapons use. However tragic the war is, there is very little assurance the United States could, through direct intervention in the Syrian civil war, stop or slow the destruction. Given the intensity of the civil war, smaller military measures may not only fail to make much difference, but may initiate escalation. The United States should rule out direct intervention to stop the fighting, and instead, concentrate on holding the fighting to Syria proper, as much as possible. American Interests US eastern Mediterranean security objectives include sustaining regional stability, avoiding havens for terrorists, preventing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation, supporting Israeli security, encouraging economic growth, and promoting democratization, though many would quibble with the exact order. (1) The United States must try to prevent the Syrian civil war from extending beyond its source and destabilizing the region. Moreover, as the conflict between Islam's largest sects, Sunna and Shi'a, escalates, it is clearly important to limit religious conflict, which can spread rapidly, and cause poles of religious authority, such as Iran, to gain influence. It is also in America's interest to terminate major internal wars in the region if it has the means and ability to do so, and at an acceptable cost. Ending the Civil War Given the importance of regional stability, the White House must work to prevent a pivotal country like Syria from collapsing entirely. The human and physical costs are already staggering, and the longer the conflict lasts, the more the human suffering and post-war recovery periods. Thus one possible, indeed likely, outcome of the Syrian civil war is a failed state that becomes a haven for terrorists and criminals, which would obviously harm regional US interests. (2) No matter which side (or sides) "wins" the war, the damage done thus far may doom Syria to decades of painful recovery, with large areas of lawlessness and suffering. Moreover, the chances of a favorable outcome for the United States are remote; either the Asad regime prevails over a broken country, or Sunni jihadists gain the upper hand, but the most likely outcome is continued fighting until mutual exhaustion. And even if a secular democratic-oriented group or groups prevail in Syria, the cost and difficulty of reconstruction may doom Syria to decades of instability. While there are clearly moral implications for the United States (and the world), it is highly unlikely a major American military intervention would succeed in dislodging the Asad regime or in ending the fighting. This is because the conflict is widespread throughout Syria's populated areas, is waged by diverse groups, and is driven by not only the stubbornness of the ruling regime, but also by religious motives beyond simple revolution. …