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Supporting defence foresight analysis with Cognitive Work Analysis: Is it applicable, helpful, and practical?

Foresight analysis is conducted by many science and technology advisory bodies in order to guide future resourcing and planning. Foresight analysis is usually concerned with anticipating technical, economic, social, and political changes that might threaten security or provide opportunities to gain strategic advantage (Crone & Gartner, 2013). Defence organisations are concerned with foresight analysis in order to resource and manage national readiness for potential future threats and to reduce surprise. There are many different methods for foresight analysis, but none by itself covers all needs. Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) is an approach to the analysis of complex sociotechnical systems that focuses on identifying the factors that shape or constrain human activity (Vicente, 1999). CWA might assist foresight analysis by helping analysts speculate how constraints and opportunities could change over time. CWA has five phases that identify different shaping and constraining factors: the domain in which the work takes place (Work Domain Analysis); the activity that must be carried out for the domain to function (Control Task Analysis); the strategies possible for carrying out the activity (Strategies Analysis); the ways work can be organized between individuals and teams (Social and Cooperation Analysis); and the competencies that individuals must have (Worker Competencies Analysis). CWA has already been used widely in defence, and its outputs have been used to guide the design of new systems, which is in itself involves prediction (Naikar, 2013; Jenkins et al., 2009). However CWA has not been used for predictions extending 10 years and beyond (Benda & Sanderson, 1998; 1999). Our objectives for this project therefore were threefold: first, to identify whether CWA is applicable to foresight analysis; second, to determine whether it is helpful to foresight analysis; and third, to determine whether it is practical for foresight analysis.