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Category change and risk perception: Hurricane Irene and coastal North Carolina.

OBJECTIVE
This research explores variations in risk perception with location and changes in the intensity of a hurricane (Hurricane Irene in 2011).


DESIGN
Surveys were mailed to a random sample of 601 year-round residents of two counties in coastal North Carolina. Within each county, areas were chosen based on their risk with respect to wind or storm surge; an equal number of surveys were sent to each area. A 31 percent return rate was achieved.


SETTING
Dare County on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Beaufort County on the Inner Banks were chosen as study areas because of the nature and extent of damage incurred from Hurricane Irene.


MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE
Because Hurricane Irene was downgraded before it made landfall in North Carolina, it was anticipated that residents would perceive themselves to be at less risk to hurricane-related hazards with differences related to location on the Atlantic Ocean or on the Sound.


RESULTS
Little difference was found between the Inner and Outer Banks locations such that all reported the change in intensity influenced their perceptions by reducing the sense of risk. This varied somewhat, but not significantly, by hazard area.


CONCLUSIONS
The downgrading of Hurricane Irene created a false sense of security. Residents of the study area believed themselves to be at low risk and were unlikely to evacuate, despite warnings. The long duration of the event, however, led to significant damages, surprising many, and suggesting the need to emphasize impacts in messaging, no matter the storm intensity.