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The Determinants of Low Fertility in Singapore: Evidence From a Household Survey

Below-replacement fertility is a common problem among the rich countries with far-reaching economic and social implications. The problem is more acute in some economically fast-growing Asian countries where the fertility decline has been more rapid and the current fertility rates have reached levels that are unprecedented in recent history. In this paper, data from a unique household survey have been used to understand the determinants of low fertility in one such country: Singapore. The total fertility rate in Singapore has dropped from 4.7 children per woman in 1965 to 1.2 in 2011. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 and one of the lowest in the world. The authors identify three key determinants of fertility in Singapore: (1) age at marriage; (2) household income; and (3) number of siblings' children. They find that fertility is negatively related to age at marriage and positively related to the number of siblings' children. The relationship between fertility and household income is U-shaped: the relationship is negative for household incomes of up to S$21 000 (in 2010 Singapore dollars) and positive for higher incomes.