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Carbon Tax on Three Fossil Fuels

Carbon pricing will make Natural Gas the last fossil fuel. As is well-known, the carbon footprint of Oil is half-again as large, and the footprint of Coal is twice as large as that of Gas. Price sensitivities also imply that Gas producers bear relatively little of the total tax burden. As a result of the smaller tax on Gas, structured vector auto-regression (SVAR) simulations of a carbon tax show demand for Oil falling, with a rush for natural Gas. These simulations show that a modest ($40 per metric ton) carbon tax can be introduced gradually, avoiding price instability and achieving greater substitution into Gas than a tax ‘shock.’