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OECD Agricultural Outlook and Its Baseline Process using AGLINK model Atsuyuki UEBAYASHI , OECD

The OECD Agricultural Outlookis published annually during first half of the year. It provides a medium term assessment of future trends and prospects of markets for the main temperate zone agricultural products traded by OECD countries. It consists a part of continuing effort to promote informed discussion of emerging policy issues and to provide a yardstick for the analysis of policy options. The sixth edition of the Outlook was completed this year on April 25. It contains projections to 2005, which constitute a medium-term future for the markets of these key commodities. under certain assumptions such as normal weather and constant policy. The OECD's AGLINK model is used to generate these projections. AGLINK is a dynamic supply-demand model of world agriculture, developed by the OECD Secretariat in close co-operation with Member countries. The overall design of the model focuses particular attention to the potential influence of agricultural policy on agricultural markets in medium term. This design enables the use of AGLINK in analysing various policy options, such as the effects of the Berlin Agreement on further CAP reforms, or extended implementation of reforms under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, so that the impact of options for reform can be evaluated by comparing the results of these scenarios with the baseline. A CD-ROM, which contains the comprehensive results of this baseline and scenario projections, in conjunction with the historical database, is made available at the time of the publication.