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APA scoring system: a novel predictive model based on risk factors of pregnancy loss for recurrent spontaneous abortion patients

Abstract The aim of this study was to analyse the risk factors of pregnancy loss of patients with recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) and develop a scoring system to predict RSA. Clinical data of 242 cases, with RSA who were treated at Fujian Provincial Maternity and Children’s Hospital, were selected. The factors of pregnancy loss for RSA patients were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. There were 242 RSA patients, of whom 34 (14.0%) developed pregnancy loss. A multivariate analysis showed the following adverse risk factors for RSA: antinuclear antibody spectrum, protein s deficiency and antiphospholipid antibodies. The pregnancy loss rates of antinuclear antibody spectrum group, protein S deficiency group and antiphospholipid antibodies group were 25.0%, 22.5% and 19.4%, respectively. Each of these factors contributed 1 point to the risk score. The pregnancy loss rates were 6.3%, 24.6%, 50% for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories, respectively (p < .001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score of RSA was .733. Our findings suggest that this validated and simple scoring system could accurately predict the risk of pregnancy loss of RSA patients. The score might be helpful in the selection of risk-adapted interventions to decrease the incidence. Impact Statement What is already known on this subject? The live birth rate increases to 80%–90% after anticoagulant and/or immunosuppressive treatment in patients with RSA. However, there is still a high rate of re-abortion even after active treatment. What do the results of this study add? Antinuclear antibody spectrum, protein s deficiency and antiphospholipid antibodies were independent risk factors for pregnancy loss. A novel predictive model based on these factors was then established and validated. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? The newly developed score might be helpful in the selection of risk-adapted interventions to decrease the incidence. For patients in the intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, we should conduct more targeted studies and formulate corresponding therapies to improve the success rate of treatment.