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PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability

Exchange-rate rules that link exchange depreciation to domestic price-level changes are shown to affect the output price-level stability trade-off through two separate channels. On one hand a PPP-oriented exchange-rate policy tends to maintain constant the real exchange rate, thus stabilizing demand. But the exchange-rate policy works also through the supply side, via the prices of imported intermediate goods. Here exchange-rate indexation works to amplify the effect of wage disturbances on prices and potentially on output. In the context of a rational-expectations model with long-term overlapping wage contracts, the analysis shows that the impact of increased indexation on output and price-level stability depends on the extent of monetary accommodation.