Careless Wales again pay the penalty against ruthless Australia

Australia 20-19 Wales
Berrick Barnes
Berrick Barnes kicks a penalty against Wales at the Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Photograph: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

To lose one match you are winning with a few minutes to go may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness. It is not a revolutionary finding that these southern-hemisphere teams are harder to beat than the northern ones but Wales's adventures in Australia this month have underscored the theory thrice over. The record will read three Tests to nil in favour of the home side, and the unbeaten champions of the north return home pondering what it is they have to do to make these fellows yield like their European brethren.

But back to this idea of luck or otherwise. For the second game running, Wales held the advantage going into the final few minutes; for the second game running they coughed up a soft penalty in the Australian half with the final whistle soon to sound; for the second game running they coughed up another in their own half; for the third game running they lost.

It was almost a carbon copy of last week except this time it was worse, because Wales, a point ahead with five minutes to go, actually had the ball in Australia's 22. They won one of their own lineouts, a feat that was far from guaranteed last week and remained so this, but, the hard part executed, they then broke away en masse from the maul they were trying to form and were penalised for obstruction. They argued with the referee, Craig Joubert, who they felt had given them the square root of nothing in this and the first Test, promptly conceding another 10 metres. Australia won the resultant lineout, before, sure enough, Ryan Jones was pinged for offside, another marginal call, albeit legitimate. It was car-crash television and the most depressing part of it, if you were Welsh, or even just from the northern hemisphere, was how predictable it all was. Needless to say, Berrick Barnes converted the penalty, and, the most predictable eventuality of them all, Australia won. Again.

It was not quite over, because Australia spilled the ball while attacking a couple of minutes later, which allowed James Hook to kick ahead for a chase he looked as if he would win had the ball only remained in field. But when it's not your day, it's not your day. And when it's not your month …

Wales have improved with each Test, and this was their best performance, insofar as they kept Australia under wraps for most of it and looked the more dangerous side. But, as discussed elsewhere and at length, there is something in the northern-hemisphere psyche that prevents such basic achievements from generating the outcome you would think logical. That Wales were trailing 12-9 at half-time was down to their failure to gather the restart after each of their three successful penalties, conceding three points directly from two of them. It is the first thing you have to do in a game of rugby – literally – and it proved beyond them, even if the harder parts, such as creating space and knocking opponents back, looked well within their compass. They lost two of their own lineouts in that period, as well.

At least their scrum was largely dominant, which won them one of the three first-half penalties Leigh Halfpenny kicked, before Joubert inexplicably lost his nerve at that set piece in the second half. Nevertheless, it was from an attacking scrum that Wales launched the try on the hour that once again suggested a first victory on Australian soil since 1969 was on its way. Alex Cuthbert was twice among the ball carriers in the threatening phases that followed, and Ryan Jones battered his way over the line to establish Wales the lead for the first time. It was long overdue.

But Australia are a better rugby team, not because of any technical proficiency, although they have plenty of that, but because of the inevitability of what happened next, because of their nerve. What, we've fallen behind, you say? In that case, we shall score. Will Genia sparked it, of course, then Barnes continued it. Rob Simmons, less predictably, contributed a little half-break, and suddenly Rob Horne was haring for the line. Lead lost, within four minutes of it being gained.

Joubert refound his senses at a scrum with 10 minutes to go, and Halfpenny slotted the penalty to re-establish that lead with nine minutes left. What, we've fallen behind you say, the Aussies replied. As night follows day, they retook the lead when it mattered. You might call it unlucky for Wales if it happened only once but it long ago became something rather more chronic than carelessness.