What a Romney Win Would Mean for the Dollar

Mitt Romney
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Mitt Romney

With the election just weeks away, this strategist has ideas about where a President Romney would take the dollar.

As predicted days before the event, Governor Romney outshone President Obama in Wednesday's presidential debate. Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets , has taken a look at what a President Romney would mean for the U.S. currency.

In the near term, Busch says, a Romney win would be dollar negative.

The stock market rose the day after the debate, he notes, and Busch argues that it's because in his view, Romney's proposals are better for the markets.

"When you saw Romney pull ahead and do so well last night, we had a strong reaction with risk on, buying the stocks and selling of the U.S. dollar in the short term," Busch told CNBC's Scott Wapner.

In the medium term, however, Busch thinks a Romney presidency would mean a higher dollar, since the country would have less risk of debt and deficits.

Before any of that can happen, though, the Bank of Japan is meeting on Friday, and Busch thinks Japan will "have to do something to stabilize the yen."

Yes, Japan has implemented quantitative easing and various other measures, but Busch says more is required. "They really need to start looking at other ways, such as foreign bond buys or maybe even a Swiss National Bank style of intervention," he says. "That's what I think is potentially going to happen," and it would probably lead to a weaker yen.

So Busch wants to buy the euro against the yen. He recommends entering the trade right around 101.50, with a stop at 99.45 and a target of 107.50.


