WSJ Blogs

Real-time commentary and analysis from The Wall Street Journal

Oka Conservatism, Out of Touchness And The Real Middle

    • Yes!

    • Good piece Iain.

      Still think the Innocent Smoothie label is the best way to understand Team Cameron.

      How many times have Team Cameron shopped in Spar, Morrisons, Jack Fulton and Asda?

      Lord Young and Howard Flight are prime examples of Upper England's inability to relate to the "grafters" with their entitled language, their fifty pound note experience of the economy and their contempt for the "grafters".

      I don't know how you change the mindset of Upper England, they haven't lived it, it's not in their soul?

    • SDP Conservatism
      The Limehouse Declaration in full effect
      Established 1992, never won a general election since

    • I think this (and, by extension, Nick Cohen's piece) is pretty much right. I'm a Tory and a member of the Northern middle class and the point about both the political leadership and the press (including press commentators on both sides of the political spectrum - Will Hutton? Polly Toynbee? Give me a break.) having a slightly eccentric idea of what constitutes being middle class north of Watford Gap is very well made. My parents worked their way up through increments to a very nice five bedroom house on a modern estate. They've done well by very many standards. But if they sold their house today they wouldn't be able to afford a two bedroom flat in Zone 1 or anything much above a three bed 1960s semi in Oxford. A forced daily peak-time rail commute would go a long way to hollowing out their disposable income. Meanwhile, I see newspaper columnists trace middle class life in the recession through the lens of not being able to keep a full time nanny or spend Christmas in Thailand. Most of the people I mix with vote Tory and I think most of them will vote Tory again, but there are definitely resentments building up. The Number 10 photographer was a big, big mistake - the more so for the fact that it seems so obviously so to anyone outside the Westminster bubble. The most common reaction I've heard is not "The cheek of it!" (which comes in a creditable second), but "How could he be so bloody stupid to think this would be ok?" The PM's now-cancelled Christmas holiday in Thailand was also a blunder from where I'm sitting. I don't hold with the idea that the PM should holiday in England - I think the argument is generally hypocritical and should be dismissed. But a five-star holiday at the expense of a foreign leader with a ropey human rights record? Doesn't he remember how much Middle England took against Tony Blair's holidays at Casa Berlusconi (which largely took place in an economic boom and also in a European democracy)? Apparently not. Again, there's the judgement issue and I think it raises questions regarding the extent to which there is some sort of bubble around the PM's circle.

      That said, I think it's important not to go overboard. As far as I'm concerned, Cameron has done enough to impress since the election to lead me to believe that he's no lightweight and should not be underestimated. But I have to say that as a Tory from outside the home counties, I think there are also danger signs.

      Two quick further points. 1) A lot of Tory MPs are complaining about the new high speed rail link going through their constituencies. If they don't want it, there are a lot of people living between Grantham and Newcastle who would give a kidney to have it go up the East Coast Main Line route. If you are just going to whinge about it, can we have it please? Thanks. 2) This whole thing about changing the daylight hours. Apparently it's "gaining momentum". Well I know literally nobody in my neck of the woods who is anything other than horrified by the idea. The fact that a lot of people in Westminster don't seem to realise that it'll result in a lot of people futher north (no, not just Scots and farmers...) having to go to work in the pitch dark and, in some cases, still have to drive home in it regardless a small but telling point in itself.

    • Cameron's other big problem is the EU.

      In 2010 the most important electoral task was to remove base and abysmal Labour - it was not the time to vote UKIP.

      In 2015, with Von Rompuy having rolled his yellow-starred panzers even further into our lives and pockets, people will have seen Cameron's lack of firmness and will think, "Right, he's definitely not up for protecting British sovereignty or British treasure, and in fact he seems quite comfortable with a homogenous Europe - so bollox to him"..........2015 could easily become the time to vote UKIP, and of course this will let Labour back in.

      The further Cameron moves away from conservative values - the less chance he has of retaining power, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tory Party abandoned with their leadership joining the Lib-Dems.

      This is the ultimate victory for the socialists who have moved the, citizens are looking for an easy ride, if not a free one. They want to be free to consume, but do not have the patience or will to wait to accumulate capital - the are 'entitled to it'.

      Blair prefaced the destruction of Rome.


    • Spot on piece - the Bercow joke also says something about how detached Cameron is - no one likes a the bully. The clever thing about the squeezed middle is that it is not who Ed Milliband thinks it is - it is who thinks they are it. If they are feeling squeezed people will think it is about them.

      Labour did some polling after the election which asked who do you think Labour are for - I think the answer came back immigrants and the unemployed.

      When you put this together with the resonance of the squeezed middle you can understand why it is a good tactic.

      Not only that but the more it is repeated the better for Labour even when it is Humphries getting the hump. Most people don't read everything in the political pieces so the constant repeating of the phrase if only to ridicule Milliband is serving to give the brand exposure.

    • Simon Castle,

      Biggest problem for Red Milliband is that he is offering Socialism and the "grafters" don't want it.

      Recent Labour branding:

      ~Tony Blair = Cilit Bang.

      ~Gordon Brown = Brillo Pad.

      ~Red Milliband = Hovis.

      Socialism (tax & spend) is dying as global competition heats up and people get sick of being managed by the politicial class.

      David Cameron fancies his brand as being like Google when in fact it is more like an Innocent Smoothie.

      Whoever does a Cillit Bang will win the next election. Labours best hope is David Milliband.

      You Labour guys picked a wrong un when you went for Hovis!!!

      Has Cameron the depth to reposition his branding away from Upper England and into the "gradters"?

    • Now this is more like it, Iain. I will never agree with you on the Euro – or Europe generally. But when you turn your mind to the problems of real people in the real economy, you don't miss a beat. Keep at it.

    • I totally agree with the broader point, but I actually think this is unfair to Humphrys. He didn't express any incredulity at 26,000 being the middle; he was trying to press Milliband on how focusing on those above and beyond that level squared with the £44,000 cut-off for child benefit. The answer is, of course, as you point out, that in household income terms, those on £44,000 are very much in the 'squeezed middle' in some parts of the country. But Milliband completely failed to explain that clearly, which, given that it's his signature policy, is pretty worrying.

    • People who earn £44, 000 p.a. are in the top ~ 10% of income distribution. I did not notice you complaining about changes in housing benefit that will be at the expense of people in the bottom 10%.

    • Thanks, Iain - another great piece.

      Larry Bartels wrote an excellent article which touches on some of these issues. I particularly like it for the Homer Simpson cartoon on the front but also for the survey which reveals that 69% of Americans thought they may be affected by Bush's plan to cut inheritance tax (when in reality only 1-2% would be). People are very bad at judging where they fit in the income distribution.

Add a Comment
