Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.

Started 11 months ago | Discussions thread
Sean Nelson
Veteran MemberPosts: 9,226
Re: Windows will succeed - Win 8 is only the preview
In reply to migibson99, 11 months ago

migibson99 wrote:

It is highly unlikely, even improbable, but not inconceivable that MS could stumble and be overtaken.

It's not inconceivable at all, and in fact I think we're actually watching this unfold right before our very eyes.  MS is not gaining any traction in the mobile marketplace, and that's where all the action is.   The desktop market is declining.   What's happening to Microsoft seems to be exactly what happened to IBM three decades ago - they just weren't able to get a handle on personal computing and they slid from the public view.   IBM didn't "fail", they just became irrelevant to everyone except IT people at Fortune 500 companies.

In exactly the same way the world is shifting to mobile computing.   There are far more "content consumers" for whom mobile makes sense than "content producers" for whom desktops make sense.  Microsoft won't "fail" per se, but they've passed a fork on the road and are headed in the direction of becoming irrelevant to the majority of users.   That's their biggest fear, and they're not being paranoid about it.

I was weaned on IBM computers.   In the 1970's the name "IBM" meant "computer" the world over -  but not any more.  Young people today haven't even heard of it.  I'm here to tell you that what's happening today with Microsoft shows every sign of being exactly the same kind of sea change.

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