Gang violence is contagious

Its spread mimics infections such as HIV, says US professor Gary Slutkin, who advises treating it as a public health problem. London group Chaos Theory is taking his approach to the streets
Gang violence
One violent attack will inevitably lead on to the next if nothing is done. Photograph: Peeter Viisimaa/Getty Images/Vetta

Danny is sitting in the back seat of my car, his hood up and his head touching the roof. Vince, who spent three weeks arranging this meeting, is in the passenger seat next to me. Suspicion makes the atmosphere awkward so, to break the ice, I suggest we get food some nearby. We are in the London borough of Waltham Forest, so maybe Nando's near the Olympic Park or Westfield Stratford? Neither are viable. How about Leyton High Road or somewhere in Walthamstow? Each location is met with a similar, half-embarrassed but certain "no".

"How much of the borough is off-limits to you?" I ask Danny. He thinks for a moment. "About 85%." The reason for this is a mixture of perceived danger and very real threat.

Six months ago, Danny was stabbed four times in the back. The first blade went in just below his shoulder. Danny, 20, had left his girlfriend's home to walk to a nearby shop when a car pulled up in front of him and five men dived out. He turned to run, but four more attackers were piling out from another vehicle behind him. He was cornered and fell. The second knife slipped in above his hip. As he picked himself up, two more blows came quickly. To stay down would have been to die. Amid a storm of kicks, punches and knives, Danny managed to escape.

I am not meeting Danny to hear another gory tale of youth violence, though, but to find out what happened next. We choose another part of town and drive off.

Waltham Forest is representative of the capital in many ways. There are posh parts, poor parts, green parts and grey parts. It does, however, have some outstanding features: it hosted the 2012 Olympics and was the birthplace of William Morris and Alfred Hitchcock. Now, adding to the list of things to be proud of, is Chaos Theory, a "violence interruption" team that is taking a new approach to preventing the sort of youth attack that Danny was subject to.

Established in 2011, the team works to interrupt the tit-for-tat cycle of violence that bounces between the borough's four rivalling areas – Walthamstow, Leyton, Leytonstone and Chingford. Their emphasis is on prevention rather than law enforcement: they work by approaching the victims, since one violent attack will inevitably lead on to the next, if nothing is done.

Violence interruption is a model built built by epidemiologist and physician Gary Slutkin to tackle out-of-control gun violence in Chicago, a city famous for its murder rate – 532 last year. The founder and executive director of Cure Violence, who for 10 years battled infectious diseases in Africa, says that violence directly mimics infections such as tuberculosis and Aids. Slutkin suggests that the treatment for violence should use the same as the approach applied to reversing the spread of these diseases, going after the most infected and stopping the infection at its source. "For violence, we're trying to interrupt the next event, the next transmission, the next violent activity. Violent activity predicts the next violent activity as [one incidence of] HIV predicts the next." Slutkin's wants to shift how we think about violence from a moral issue to a public health issue.

After the London riots in 2011, the Home Office invited Slutkin to consult on how to tackle the out-of-control gang culture it believed had led to the disorder. "At the time, the community was looking for something new and specific to do and there was a realisation that the ordinary thinking – enhanced law enforcement or very, very general community improvement – wasn't working," says Slutkin. "We offered a model that had been demonstrated to be effective and there was an interest in exploring it."

Slutkin appreciates that, with fewer guns than in the US, violence in the UK is less often fatal. In 2011-12, 39% of murders in the UK involved a knife and 9% involved a gun. In the US, guns accounted for 68% of all murders in 2011. "Fewer guns are only relevant to the overall mortality rate," he says. "It doesn't change the basic problem that violence is contagious. The UK has a low threshold for violence. In the US we're more tolerant.

"There needs to be interruption, and the interruption needs to be made by people who have access and trust. The interrupter and the person who is angry need to convene in a similar language so that person thinks: 'These guys are talking to me in my own interest.'"

In this instance, Vince is that trusted person, which is why he is with us.

The attack on Danny was over in minutes. By the time he stopped running, blood was gushing out of his wounds. He ran to a friend's house and they began trying to patch up the gaping holes, in an attempt to avoid having to go to hospital.

"I smoked a spliff, and my pal was trying to stop the bleeding. We were just thinking about the same thing: how this kicked off and who the guys were who did it."

Calling the police wasn't an option. "That's a snitch manoeuvre," says Danny, as we reach our destination, a quiet pub in the neighbouring borough of Hackney. In his world, postcodes dictate allegiances, and being from one "hood" means risking your life if you slip into another. Hackney, Danny explains, is fine because he has no history there. Justice, to the teens who live by these codes, is meted out not by police and judges, but on the streets.

When his friend's mum found them in her kitchen following the attack, she applied a more common logic. There was blood all over the floor and the boy she had seen growing up alongside her own son was dying. She insisted on calling the ambulance. "I've known her my whole life, I wasn't going to disrespect her now," he recalls.

At the hospital, as Danny had predicted, they were met by the police. They had heard it was a stabbing and questioned Danny while he was being patched up. Who did this? How did it happen? They had witnesses, so Danny might as well talk. Silence. OK, what had he done to deserve this? More silence. No sooner had the final stitch been put in than Danny was arrested. He was charged with gang affiliation and spent the next six months in prison on remand. His wish to avoid the hospital was understandable, even if it did make his chance of survival less certain.

Gang culture
After the London riots in 2011, the Home Office invited Professsor Slutkin to consult on how to tackle gang culture. Photograph: Sang Tan/AP

In 2011-12, the Metropolitan police recorded 7.5% fewer violent assaults with injury compared with the previous year, with overall youth violence down nearly 10% and a near 4% reduction in knives used to injure. However, serious youth violence – weapon-enabled crime, where the victim is aged one to 19 – was marginally up, with knife crime up by more than 6% across London. Experts believe the true figure is probably much higher because, like Danny, victims avoid going to hospital in case they are suspected of gang affiliation, but even the layperson can tell that there is a trend towards the use of knives rather than fists in fights.

Only 27% of known serious violent crimes resulted in a conviction during 2011-12, and Chaos Theory believes the response to youth violence needs a rethink.

Danny has been free for one month. His injuries have healed and his attackers – who were not caught by the police, in part because of Danny's silence – live within a mile of his home. Only those with a score to settle know who they are. As far as the code goes, the ball is in Danny's court.

Violence interruption is a peer-led model based on two things. First, understanding that young people such as Danny won't talk to the police. To be labelled a snitch by rivals and even your own friends is worse than going to jail. Second, that there is a tendency for one attack to lead to another.

This is where Vince comes in. He is five years older than Danny and is known among Danny and his peers as an "elder" of the area. He grew up on the same streets and is trusted and respected by the "youngers".

"We were all running around doing the same shit, but over time I saw all my mates, all the ones who didn't snake [snitch], who I was like Bonnie and Clyde with, all of them ended up in jail. The lowest person got eight years. I could've been one of them. You see this person and that person and this person, then that person all disappear to jail. All of a sudden I turned around and no one was there. Literally no one," Vince says.

"When I go see them it hurts. I know they're talented guys, it's just wasted life. What do you get out of it? I'm trying to not vanish, and help out the young bucks."

Danny and Vince's relationship is brotherly. Vince visited him 25 times over the six months he was in jail, each time explaining more about violence interruption and how it could help Danny. But first Vince had to get the message to Danny's attacker. Vince has the respect of gang members and at-risk young people in this part of Waltham Forest, but with colleagues all over the borough who have earned respect in their areas, Chaos Theory can monitor tension, predict violence and mediate almost all disputes before they happen.

Vince went to his counterparts who work in the area Danny's attackers came from. "I could never have gone to them, they don't know me and I'm from the other side as far as they're concerned," he says. "I spoke to my colleagues, who approached them. They found out that it wasn't a personal problem and didn't even know Danny beyond seeing him in rap videos on YouTube – a common pastime of young people is to make videos, a hobby that often leads to disputes if their content is directed at disrespecting a rival group of friends. He'd been in the wrong place at the wrong time and they'd caught him slipping."

Vince passed the message on to Danny that his attackers were only going to fight him again if he did something to them. It was now up to Danny to make sure things were not going to escalate.

"He listened to me, he saw what I'd been through, how I changed, he knew my past life, how it was and witnessed how I changed things around. But he wouldn't have listened to just anyone," Vince says. "He's a smart guy though, and a better life was an easy thing for Danny to decide he wanted."

We are now sitting in the car in Vince's driveway, and have been for 30 minutes, in which time the same police car has driven past six times. This time it stops and both officers stare at us. "We're three guys with hoods in a black car," says Vince. "If we were five white guys in suits making loads of noise, they wouldn't even care. Round here, kids constantly feel intimidated."

Slutkin is wrestling with how the police can play a role in his model. "Generally speaking, they can be more physically present in the areas where retaliation might be expected, particularly if there's wars between groups. But the limitation is that if someone is really trying to get someone, they'll wait and get them somewhere else another time.

"Violence interruption is about effective persuasion by your own people. The principal role of law enforcement is to enforce the law. But the principal role of violence interruption is to prevent the law from being broken."

Slutkin also acknowledges the tense relationship between police and marginalised communities. "Defiance will always be directed towards police because they're frequently seen by marginalised communities as not being necessarily on their side. Friends and relatives won't pass on information for fear of their friends getting arrested."

Vince gets out and we drive off. "Phew," sighs Danny. He relaxes once the police are out of sight and we cross into the next borough. "It feels good to be leaving." As we reach his home, he looks over his shoulder, pulls his hood up so as not to draw attention to himself and slips away.