Arts watch.

`Titanic' Broke All The Rules -- And Now Records At The Box Office

January 12, 1998|By Mark Caro, Tribune Staff Writer.

The last time something called "Titanic" had this much momentum, it hit an iceberg.

James Cameron's movie epic, however, is going full steam ahead with a huge, diverse crowd on board and no obstacles in sight.

This is a film that was supposed to sink under its own $200 million weight, a three-hour-plus albatross with no reliable box-office stars, minimal gunfire and an ending that wouldn't catch anyone by surprise. Plus, its detail-obsessed director couldn't finish it in time for its scheduled 4th of July opening and was being portrayed having gone off the deep end himself.

Yet the most expensive film ever made has not only floated, it has cruised to box-office records since its Dec. 19 launch. Its latest milestone is to become the all-time top grossing film longer than three hours; it was on pace to pass the $184.2 million mark of the previous record-holder, 1990's "Dances with Wolves," this past weekend.

Analysts expect "Titanic's" total domestic box-office gross to exceed $250 million, which is what 1997 box-office champion "Men in Black" earned and which could place it among the top-10 grossing films ever.

Like its subject matter, "Titanic" was made with state-of-the-art technology, as you'd expect from the director of "Terminator 2" and "True Lies." But the secret of its success seems to be that old-fashioned notion of providing something for everyone.

" `Titanic' has a pretty much across-the-board appeal," saidBrian Fuson, box office analyst for The Hollywood Reporter. "Its (PG-13) rating doesn't keep you from coming, and when you have Leonardo DiCaprio, he appeals to the youth market. You have a romantic story; I think that draws in more the female demographic. And you have James Cameron and his reputation as a director and all the publicity about the film being the most expensive film ever made."

It's "Romeo and Juliet" aboard "The Poseidon Adventure." It's "Sense and Sensibility" with a body count. It's the Discovery Channel with amazing production values.

Somehow the combination is pleasing all constituencies.

Natalie Zimmerman, a 19-year-old Indiana University freshman from Crystal Lake, has seen "Titanic" four times, and she's not even a big DiCaprio fan.

"It made me think a lot about my life and what direction I want to head in and how fragile life is," Zimmerman said. "You never know what's going to happen to you, and you should just make the most of what you have."

The teen audience is important because they're the ones most likely to see a movie over and over. But industry experts said repeat business isn't the most important factor behind the "Titanic" phenomenon.

" `Scream 2' is going to be a $100 million film, and that's primarily going to be a teenaged audience base," said Howard Lichtman, spokesman for Cineplex Odeon theaters. " `Titanic' is already over $160 million, and you've got to be servicing everybody with those numbers."

Douglas Gomery, a University of Maryland journalism professor who specializes in media economics, contended that "Titanic" is being driven more by its older viewers.

" `Titanic' is part of a trend in which the movie industry has figured out how to get the Baby Boom generation back to the movies," he said.

Part of the appeal, Gomery added, lies in the film's classic, predictable structure. He likened "Titanic" to an old western or melodrama where you know the ending in advance and concentrate on the performances and filmmaking style.

"It's what Hollywood did so well in the '30s, '40s and '50s," Gomery said. "You knew in `Gone with the Wind' that the South was going to lose the Civil War. The point was watching Scarlett and Rhett interact. It's a kind of throwback, and I think in that way it does appeal to Baby Boomers who were raised on classic Hollywood cinema."

The consensus is that the film's delay worked to its advantage. Instead of opening the same day as "Men in Black" amid the summer blockbuster crunch, "Titanic" debuted alongside the new James Bond flick and little else that would draw huge crowds.

Its highly favorable reception fueled Oscar talk -- it already seems the favorite to win Best Picture -- and great word of mouth has kept its numbers in the stratosphere. Its box-office jumped 23 percent in its second weekend and was down a mere 6 percent in its third. "Titanic" was able to rack up such high figures while averaging one fewer showing per screen per day because of its length.

"It was able to build momentum, and there was nothing to knock it out of the box," said Variety box-office reporter Andrew Hindes. "I wouldn't be surprised if this film is still No. 1 a month from now."

So this "Titanic" would seem to have a happy ending. About half of the total box-office receipts return to the studios that financed the movie, Paramount (which is handling the North American release) and 20th Century Fox (which has the international rights). (Paramount officials were unavailable to comment on the film's domestic box-office success.)

Add up the domestic and foreign-market box office, video and television (NBC paid $30 million for rights to show the film five times over five years beginning in 2000), sales, and "Titanic" should wind up in the black.

"In economics there's all that talk about how films cost too much and Hollywood is out of control -- how do you make that argument anymore?" Gomery asked. "Spend $200 million, and you still make money."

Still, others don't expect "Titanic" to become any studio's model for success.

"Everyone is scared to death about this type of movie," said Harold Vogel, entertainment analyst for the brokerage firm of Cowen & Co. in New York. "It's an example of what you shouldn't do. It's a bad business decision. They got lucky because the public went for the story, but it's just by the skin of their teeth that they're going to be able to make a profit."