Democracy Takes Years to Build

Mark Quarterman

Mark Quarterman is a senior adviser and director of the Program on Crisis, Conflict and Cooperation at Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Updated August 23, 2011, 5:02 PM

The impending fall of Muammar el-Qaddafi is a welcome development for which the Libyan people are justifiably proud. It is, however, only the first step on the long path to democratic transition. Libyans and the international community need to think in terms of at least three time frames: first, the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Qaddafi regime, i.e., now; second, the medium term of one to two years during which Libyans will negotiate a political settlement, possibly draft a constitution, and hold an election; and third, the completion of a transition to democracy, as much as 15 years in the future.

The U.S. can continue to lead effectively from behind by urging the Europeans to bear a burden commensurate with their interests.

In the first period, the transitional authority, presumably made up of the Transitional National Council and other factions and regional representatives, must get an immediate handle on security across the nation and ensure that the power and water stays on and workers get paid. This is not just to improve people’s lives, but also to establish a firm foundation on which to build the political settlement that would be achieved in the medium term.

Chaos and instability would undermine trust in the T.N.C. and make it much harder to bring Libyans together to plan for the future. An effective middle term process that leads to a political settlement, reconciliation and wide participation must begin as soon as possible, and is a necessary step for the ultimate success of the transition. Libyans need to see that there is a roadmap to a democratic future.

The Libyan transitional authorities and the international community must keep these three time periods in mind from the start of the post-Qaddafi period. They need to prepare the Libyan people for a long and bumpy process. The international community, presumably the United Nations, with substantial support from European countries, the United States and sympathetic Arab states like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, must understand that they should be involved for the long haul.

The U.S. can continue to lead effectively from behind by urging the Europeans to bear a burden commensurate with their interests and by advising the T.N.C. to be consistently inclusive and democratic.

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Topics: Libya, World

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