Ireland's diplomatic snub could make Vatican nightmares a reality

If even a 'Catholic' country like Ireland can close its embassy to the Holy See, what about those where Catholics are a minority?
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Pope Benedict XVI prepares to address a crowd from the central balcony of St Peter's Basilica
Pope Benedict XVI prepares to address a crowd from the central balcony of St Peter's Basilica at the Vatican. Photograph: Osservatore Romano/EPA

The closure of the Irish embassy to the Holy See in Rome is a major setback for the Vatican. The decision by Ireland's government brings to life a number of Vatican nightmares. First of all, it was made for "economic reasons", which means that keeping a diplomatic mission at the papal court is supposed to be expensive (implicitly, uselessly expensive). Worse, the costs just seem to be a pragmatic and neutral explanation to cover up a hot political struggle: the sex abuse scandals involving Irish Catholic priests.

But in a period of financial turmoil, economy might be a perfect reason, or excuse, for other governments to take similar steps. This has happened before. In 1867, the United States wanted to retaliate for Pius IX's alleged support to the Confederates, and the Union government simply cut off funds for the then Vatican legation (there wasn't yet an embassy). Here is the second nightmare: a potential "domino effect", underlining the failure of the Vatican in handling the sex abuse cases.

There is still a disconnect between western public opinion and Catholic episcopates on this thorny issue. The Holy See last year made Charles Scicluna a kind of "top prosecutor". Scicluna admitted at long last that paedophilia was a crime that required the church to collaborate with the civil judiciary. But Scicluna's assessment, although backed by the pope himself and aimed at the whole Catholic world, may have come too late.

The Irish action appears to confirm this suspicion. It exploded after a long and tough dispute between the Irish prime minister, Enda Kenny, and the Holy See. In Anglo-Saxon countries around the world and in northern Europe, the role of the Catholic church and its approach to individual rights has been harshly criticised. As a consequence, a third nightmare might come true: the shrinking of the international profile of the Vatican. If even a "Catholic" country, as Ireland is, can decide to forgo its diplomatic mission at the papal court, what about nations in which Catholics are a minority?

So far, economic concerns have been kept out of this discussion. Some governments have repeatedly but confidentially remarked that the costs of their embassies to the Holy See are hardly justified; and the tensions stemming from sex abuse scandals have kindled the fire. Nevertheless, Catholic lobbies and prestige have up to now prevented these states from taking drastic decisions. But the spread of the "Irish syndrome" could change this attitude.

What is viewed today as poor diplomatic management of a divisive issue both by Dublin and by Rome could create a historic rupture. Dublin was also moved by domestic political calculations. It wanted to give a signal that the country had changed even in its relations with the Catholic church, mirroring a broader anti-clerical mood. Ireland has announced the closure of its embassies in Iran and East Timor as well.

Some people also wonder whether the downgrading of these relations could be advantageous for Britain: the Holy See, in fact, always supported Ireland as a united state.

But the result is in any case a paradoxical one. "Catholic" Ireland could prove to be the pathfinder of a worrying development for the Vatican, whose diplomatic and moral weight is openly and badly challenged. If it doesn't move on rapidly, the echo of the scandals combined with the effects of the financial crisis could weaken its voice and international presence. And the closure of the Irish embassy could turn to be just a bitter appetiser: the first in a series.

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