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Over the past few years, Citi's Matt King notes that the future never seems to become quite bright enough to offset the underlying economic and political realities. When we have been in this situation before, something has happened to make the markets nervous again, and then the outlook has darkened. Typically it’s been because of back-pedalling by policymakers on reforms, or doubts about central banks’ willingness to continue injecting liquidity at tighter spread levels. Recent headlines about limiting the scope for bank recapitalization by the ESM, sequestration probabilities, and about central banks’ growing nervousness that markets are running ahead of economic reality make us doubt that this time is any different.



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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:34 | 3257898 Cojones
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Where does 'Central Banks Print Money' fit in?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:35 | 3257901 NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

That would be a "Constant" in that equasion, like a Timex Ben Press's keep on a Clicking

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:38 | 3257904 markmotive
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Perhaps this is why some say yields will remain at rock-bottom levels for years...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:39 | 3257906 Confundido
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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:47 | 3257925 THX 1178
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Where is "derivatives structure implodes"?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:33 | 3258048 derek_vineyard
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seems like straight up since 666 spx

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:34 | 3258643 old naughty
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so we are here where the dither-er "pledge to spend without adding 'dime' to deficit "  ;-/

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:24 | 3258022 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Your exactly right, the printing of money is the oil or fuel for the circle.  What happens though is that as more money is printed it makes the time between each length of the circle to become shorter and shorter to the point that eventually it will be just market falling.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:43 | 3257918 Selah
Selah's picture

That would be where: " Policy Makers Take Action"


Have you been paying attention to the last few years?

Central Banks = Policy Makers


Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:14 | 3257990 willwork4food
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Exuberant Euphoria-->Policy Makers suck 10 billion from peasants--> Market Crashes, Congress promises reforms--> Policy makers enter in when everyone else is broke or scared to death-->Market rebounds, confidence must be due to reforms-->Exuberant Euphoria-->

Policy Makers=congress=vampires

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 03:50 | 3258678 Sudden Debt
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You might have skipped a few seasons but when you start looking again, Richie is still playing arround with Obama's wife, Ben's still printing and the intriges pille up one after another.

Maybe Timmy will do a reappearance in the next season?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:53 | 3257938 RagnarDanneskjold
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Policy Makers Take Action.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:43 | 3257917 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The world continues to spin about its axis....until it doesn't. All we need to know to predict the next collapse in stock values is to see want underlying fundamentals support the current prices....and there are none. These prices will evaporate faster than a corzine managed customer account. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:46 | 3257921 ebworthen
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Lots of policymaker dithering, or is it dicking the public?

I have to question "policy makers take action".  What would that be, increasing the debt ceiling ad infinitum?  FED money printing and QE to the moon?  That isn't action, it's a heroin injection into the body public.

I'll cheer the market collapse becuase it has become nothing but a Ponzi meter.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:45 | 3257922 zerotohero
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Ground Hog Day - Bill Murray rocks

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 23:02 | 3258301 Groundhog Day
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You Rang?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:48 | 3257926 cherry picker
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Like the old days, when the few desire a profit, a whole species of buffalo almost became extinct.

There are other examples.

Human nature hasn't changed, but today we are the buffalo.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:17 | 3258168 cynicalskeptic
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no - we're lemmings.... Buffalo were noble beasts hunted to death.   We're mindless rat like creatures following our leaders over a cliff to our doom

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:43 | 3259464 marathonman
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I'm certainly not following a leader over a cliff.  They may drag me kicking and screaming but I ain't following anyone over it!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:48 | 3257931 MoneyThangs
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I lost millions reading ZH and going short, I will only listen to GS from now and buy hand over fist everyday

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:52 | 3257936 Uber Vandal
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The fastest way to create a small fortune is to start with a large one.


Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:41 | 3258064 Cursive
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GS's year-end target for SPX was 1250.  You could have made money fading that advice, which ZH pointed out.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:37 | 3258230 Haager
Haager's picture

Gone short on thinking for yourself?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:49 | 3257932 Shizzmoney
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Nice chart.

But he missed 2 things....especially since he works at Citi:

After "Outlook improves", there should be a space for "Banks steal your money" and then at the other end of the spectrum, have, "You Finally Notice we Stole Your Money".

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:50 | 3257934 espirit
espirit's picture

Limited closed loop system.  After the markets sell off, Mad Max would replace "outlook deteriorates" then "policymakers take action" would evolve to total anarchy where policymakers reap what they have sown.

Just saying.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:52 | 3257935 nothing can go wrogn
nothing can go wrogn's picture

"Markets sell off" should be replaced with "Control-P" and an arrow pointing upward to "Zimbawbwe."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:18 | 3258173 cynicalskeptic
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Any chance my Zimbabwe trillions will be worth something in the near future?   

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:53 | 3257939 Desert Rat
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While true, it does not factor time... That is the incalculable variable.. "The waaaaaitin is the hardest part..."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:54 | 3257941 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Biderman says wages and salaries are soaring. Doubling each month. Companies are finally hiring. And he is likely pissed that he lost so many clients from going short too soon.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:54 | 3257942 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

So if you invest in the market here, you will be a circle jerk.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:55 | 3257943 Yen Cross
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 "Punxsutawney Phil", saw Blankfeins shadow and ran back into his hole!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:18 | 3257945 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

Is this a positive or a negative loop. Same old crap. Is as much I would like to see things blow up, I don't see a mechanism that would trigger it.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:58 | 3257949 jldpc
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The "Policy Makers" decided some time ago to debase the currency because they "can" get away with "printing money" (in all of the marvelous ways that they have creatively come up with) until the system collapses. Any belief that they will change their behavior is delusional. If Obama's mentors from the Univ. of Chicago have their way, and they probably will, they will continue on this path until there are no more "poor People." They have beautifully co-opted the financial elite, whose asset base will double or triple in nominal terms, if not in purchasing power per se. What diffference does it make if the fancy estate "costs $10mm or $40mm, as long as your asset base has risen proportionately.  All the doom, glumm, and gloom guys on ZH are obviously not part of the financial elite. Ever hear a bankster complain about Ber nake's policies. And for all of you commentators here, WB included, the cover, the mask, the charade, the underlying rationale, the reason that all of this shit will not stop is............................... the dual mandate - inflation and unemployment. It is the latter that his honor the Chairman uses to justify his behavior. The neo-communists from Chicago, have got Bernake by the balls. Everybody knows that the housing bubble made a lot of highschool, and nearly highschool graduates, and undocumented aliens unemployed. They were otjherwise unemployable then, are unemployable now, and will continue to be unemployable, until the m9iddle class white women - single divorced moms - give up the hope that Johnnie the dumb lazy ass "must" go to college, instead of trade school, or an apprentice program. Now Johnniw is deep in debt, his mother is hopelessly voting for Obama, and will vote again for Hillory to save their asses. But alas, the beat will go on, the federal support of everybody and evrything, except the baby boomers and thier savings accounts and purchasing power, will continue for decades. Why? Because we are faced with cultural normative belief sets - not as the idealogues would have you believe mere financial and economic "conditions." Such matters take decades to replace; BECAUSE only abject failure causes a change in attitudes. And so long as they out vote you, outnumber you at the polls, and your carefully chosen representatives are cowards, the future is plain to see, and easily predicatable.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:06 | 3257967 Desert Rat
Desert Rat's picture

damn.... the truth hurts

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:33 | 3258045 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It's also kind of fuckin' hilarious

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:14 | 3257993 Henry Chinaski
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only abject failure causes a change in attitudes

Bada bing, bada boom, bitchez.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:32 | 3258040 All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture

So,,,  the moral of your story is......Buy gold and silver?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:00 | 3257954 Likstane
Likstane's picture

Where is "stacks fall off stern"?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:10 | 3257983 adr
adr's picture

It is different this time, instead of losing 78% of your money, you'll lose 99%.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:18 | 3258004 SKY85hawk
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I bought some ERY (short Financials).  How much might I make?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:11 | 3257988 toys for tits
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Why go to Disneyworld? 

We get to ride the teacups in real life.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:18 | 3258005 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

I did not see a drone in there.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:24 | 3258020 Wanton1
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Where is says, "Outlook deterioriates"

Is where you take "Colloidal Silver."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:32 | 3258043 Spigot
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Nothing in politics is by accident. The power group with the greatest cohesive vision/agenda invariably dominates (for a time) the stage. Our current dominant group likes it like this, and is keeping it like that. They have found a way to justify funneling over $1,000,000,000,000 per year into their pockets, at the expense of the federal indebtedness of the USA. What is happening is the greatest heist in American history. Its the easiest money they have ever made. And IMO this is the last gallon of blood they will get from this victim, before it becomes "unproductive" to their intentions.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:42 | 3258066 ekm
ekm's picture

What does 'market sell-off' mean?


In order to sell, the seller needs a buyer. Who's going to buy?

I will buy, for sure, but at Dow 4000.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 23:55 | 3258425 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Stock market is same as housing market.....

Fed prints - hands out cash to buddies at zirp - they buy stocks.... they buy foreclosed properties.

This market is for all intents and purposes a closed loop - similar to a washing machine

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:46 | 3258079 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Why not just go from Outlook Improves straight to Policy Makers Take Action?

and by action I mean playing golf or going skiing.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:51 | 3258089 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Or taking bribes and hiring hookers.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:19 | 3258174 BeagleOne
BeagleOne's picture

I'm buying at 3500.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:57 | 3258102 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Those sound like good horse racing names. 
Would make for a great call to a photofinish where they all cross into the grinder.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 00:37 | 3258492 joego1
joego1's picture

The wheels on the fed go round and round....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 06:04 | 3258751 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You are here : On this subject the gap between the mainstream and contrarian media like ZH widens. 

See the rationale behind this in BI (mainstream financial "tabloid") : GOLD GOES INTO A DEATH CROSS - Business Insider

Its quite contrary to ZH's prediction for Gold over 2013, where the current economic climate projected will increase market instability and therefore need for money safe havens. 

The bulls are out in strength in mainstream but the bears of contrarian thinking are just as stubborn. 

Folies Bergeres wide splits bitchezzzz! 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:42 | 3259793 Grand Supercycle
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Therefore the resultant downtrend should have good momentum.
