WikiLeaks logo
The Global Intelligence Files,
files released so far...

The Global Intelligence Files

Search the GI Files

The Global Intelligence Files


Mexico stuff

Released on 2012-10-19 08:00 GMT

Email-ID 1807508
Date unspecified
n Situation in Mexico has hallmarks of gova**t not being able to be
brought under control by gova**t

n Law enforcement control concentration by gova**t.

n BUT, no evidence that cartels want to take it to a different level.
They are not willing to go after civilians, no interest in shutting down
lines of transport to the U.S.

n They dona**t want to run Mexico.

n A possible shift for the cartels, half step towards terrorism,
would be things like intimidation tactics on police, car bombs and so
ona*| Colombia 1970s model, but we wouldna**t be looking at outright
flagrant terrorisma*|

- Cartels are not as nearly as with ita*| The degree with which
they are fighting police and each other seems like something that could
spin out of controla*| Trigger event that would tip the scales.

- Other thing is that Mexican drug cartels are fighting each other
for control of the disrupted plazas. How likely is it that in 2009 the
cartels have secured control over what they wanted to control and either
strike a bargain amongst each other.

- Stratfor is making the argument that things will stay status

- Last element that is hard to determine: what the ability of
United States is to help out, get involveda*| Karen thinks it is limiteid.
She thinks there is opportunitiy for Obama to do something now at the
start. But, there are a lot of statements out of Washington of hightened
awareness of problems in Mexico. It could help.

- INTEL problem: gage the mood of the militarily

Marko Papic

Stratfor Junior Analyst
C: + 1-512-905-3091
AIM: mpapicstratfor