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Audio Rudd strategist blames factions for loss

Eleanor Hall

Kevin Rudd's adviser Bruce Hawker, says they underestimated the power of the factions to sway the direction of the vote. He says he's surprised MPs did not heed the public's support for Kevin Rudd and swing their support behind him.


ELEANOR HALL: We're still waiting to hear from the Prime Minister and Kevin Rudd in response to today's vote but joining us now is Bruce Hawker, the Labor Party strategist and numbers man for Kevin Rudd in this challenge.

Bruce Hawker, did you misjudge this?

BRUCE HAWKER: Well I think we may have misjudged the power of the factional leaders to really enforce the vote. We didn't misjudge public opinion on it though. And I think it's a case where we won the public opinion war but lost the battle in the Caucus.

ELEANOR HALL: Were you surprised that Labor backbenchers didn't swing behind Kevin Rudd, the man who is far more popular in the polls, when it came to the vote in the party room?

BRUCE HAWKER: Yeah I was. I thought for a few days beforehand it was going to be difficult I think mainly because of that real shock and awe campaign that they ran against Kevin in the last days before the poll, much of which was occurring while he was overseas. I think that did worry a lot of people inside the Caucus, that leaders within the parliamentary party were taking such a hard line.

I think it also had the effect of making people think, well maybe neither Gillard nor Rudd in the long term are going to be what we want. But I think that's a fair way off yet. The big worry I've got...

ELEANOR HALL: Would you be the strategist for a third candidate coming through?

BRUCE HAWKER: No, (laughs) definitely not. Look my view all along has been that the Australian public believe that Rudd was badly done by. They elected him and then the factions took him away. It's happened again today in a sense because we know that overwhelmingly the public supports him.

But now I suspect that the only thing to do is to pull behind Julia Gillard because she is going so badly in public opinion polls that if we don't do that we're heading for a disastrous defeat in the coming weeks, months or years.

ELEANOR HALL: Bruce Hawker you say that you, that is you and Kevin Rudd, won the public opinion battle but the fact that these backbenchers were not prepared to back the leader who on that, on the public opinion polls would best ensure their political survival, what do you think that says about their view of Kevin Rudd?

BRUCE HAWKER: Well I don't know really. It staggers me. I actually always thought that ultimately in politics people, you know, follow self-interest so they will go for the leader who is best equipped to take them to the next election.

I think there are a number of people in the higher echelons of the party who made it quite clear that they wouldn't work with him again - not because he was a dysfunctional leader really but because they were complicit in his removal and they knew that it was going to make for an uncomfortable life even though he committed to no retributions.

I think the bulk of the Caucus would have happily gone with Rudd if they'd had their way but they didn't.

ELEANOR HALL: Well they had the chance of a vote today.

BRUCE HAWKER: Yeah and I think that they were basically told you've got to go down this route. I know that there were a lot of people very reluctant about it but that's the way they went. So that's life in the big city.

ELEANOR HALL: The way that you are talking, are you suggesting that Kevin Rudd shouldn't give up his leadership ambitions?

BRUCE HAWKER: No, no. I think he shouldn't challenge again. He has made that absolute commitment. I think challenges are very divisive things. I think though that the worry I have going forward, to use that terrible term, is that the polls will continue to reflect poorly on the Government. And we really have to turn that around otherwise we are heading for a pretty bad defeat in 2013.

ELEANOR HALL: Okay you're a campaign strategist. How do you turn that around? Especially how does the Labor Party pull back a lot of the bile that's been out there in the last week?

BRUCE HAWKER: Yeah, I think we've got to let that settle and I think they're all committed to letting that settle. I think there will be very public demonstrations of camaraderie across factions and the like.

Then I think Julia's big challenge is to get on with the business of restoring trust with, inside the, well within the public really. You know that's where it's, that's where they feel that there's been a breach. And she is going to work hard on that.

The big challenge of course is still carbon. They've got to sell the carbon tax rebate really hard and I think there will be a campaign associated with that.

I've always felt that you know once we get the compensation package out for carbon then a lot of the concerns that people have about the tax will dissipate. I'm not sure that they will go away but they'll dissipate.

ELEANOR HALL: Bruce Hawker have you spoken to Kevin Rudd today since the vote?

BRUCE HAWKER: No I haven't unfortunately. But I think he's a pretty busy guy at the moment. He will be making an address to the public very soon.

ELEANOR HALL: Bruce Hawker, the campaign manager essentially for Kevin Rudd's challenge to the Labor leadership, thanks very much for joining us.

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