Scottish referendum poll tracker



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Scottish Referendum poll tracker -- read the full methodology.


David Cowling, Editor, BBC Political Research Unit

Opinion polls are already playing a significant role in the referendum and it seems likely that this will continue as the campaign intensifies.





Most polls will ask respondents how certain they are to vote: are the supporters of one side more enthusiastic about voting than those of the other: pollsters will often adjust their referendum voting figures to take account of any such differences.

We are told that perceptions of how the Scottish economy will fare in the event of independence will be important in deciding how people vote.

We know that older people have a greater propensity to vote than younger age groups: how do they split between the two sides?

Polls to date have shown a marked gender gap, with women much less likely to support independence than men: as we enter the home stretch of the campaign does that gender divide hold, or do women become more favourable?

These few examples suggest that there is much more to be gleaned from the polls than is gained from the published referendum voting intention figures alone.


You would think, given the choice is simply "Yes" or "No", that the challenge to produce accurate figures would be relatively simple; but predicting the same "Yes" or "No" choice in the 2011 UK referendum on the Alternative Vote system caused some pollsters grief.


We need to keep that in mind as the campaign develops and the tide of opinion polls sweeps over all of us.

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