Libs set for at least 20-seat majority

By Tim Colebatch

October 14, 2004

The Liberals look set to claim two more close seats and a majority of at least 20 after counting yesterday gave them commanding leads in Wakefield and Bonner.

But Labor MPs David Cox and Kim Wilkie are holding their leads in Kingston and Swan, while the Liberals are creeping ever closer to retaining the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. They are now the three seats where the outcome is hardest to call. Of the other 147 seats, the Coalition is likely to win at least 86, Labor at least 58, and independents three.

If Labor holds Kingston and Swan, then barring large shifts in votes still to be counted, the Government would end up with a majority of 22 to 24 seats, depending on who wins Hindmarsh.

The latest counting has put two more seats out of doubt. In the new Brisbane seat of Bonner, Labor's Con Sciacca, a former minister in the Keating government, is contemplating a return to the law after falling 368 votes behind.

"I'm not slitting my wrists yet, but it'll be very very difficult to hold the seat from here," Mr Sciacca said. "You can sum up the reason in two words: interest rates. House prices in Brisbane have doubled in the last three years, and people have borrowed to the hilt to buy or renovate. A half a per cent increase in interest rates, and they'll hurt."

In Wakefield, now a blend of outer suburbs and rural areas north of Adelaide, Labor MP Martyn Evans has fallen more than 850 votes behind and his position appears hopeless.

At the southern end of the city in Kingston, Labor's shadow assistant treasurer David Cox was hanging on grimly to another mortgage-belt seat.

Yesterday, postal votes cut his lead from 258 to 225 votes, but Labor believes absentee votes still to be counted will favour him.

The score is even closer in the inner-suburban seat of Hindmarsh, where Liberal MP Chris Gallus has retired. Yesterday's counting almost halved Labor's lead to just 142 votes.

In the inner-Perth seat of Swan, Labor's Kim Wilkie picked up yesterday in counting of absentee votes, and leads by 230 to 240 votes with 4000 to 5000 votes still to be counted.

Votes were rechecked in Richmond, where National Party minister Larry Anthony still trails by 848 votes.

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