Initiative won’t thwart state’s emissions fight

— California’s aggressive campaign to curb global warming will probably not come to a screeching halt even if voters eventually apply the brakes.

An initiative that appears all but certain to qualify for the November ballot would suspend the state’s landmark law to gradually reduce greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming until there’s a sustained economic recovery.

The initiative narrowly targets the law passed as Assembly Bill 32 in 2006 and its subsequent regulations and likely would leave other ambitious global warming policies untouched, people on both sides of the ballot measure agree.

Automakers will still have to fill showrooms with models that emit fewer greenhouse gases, utilities must find renewable sources of electricity, and cleaner diesel truck engine regulations will remain in effect.

But opponents are confident that the initiative will block the most onerous provisions that could bring more burdensome regulations and higher energy costs in a state known for both. Among those are penalties for exceeding a cap on emissions and a requirement that industry, such as refineries and utilities, reduce the carbon intensity in fuels.

If the law is not blocked, critics say, jobs will be lost while little progress will be made in the battle against global warming, which many believe requires a worldwide effort.

“Suspending AB 32 regulations is just a very modest step to ensure that California’s economy recovers and we’re not caught in a down economy for many years because we foolishly moved too quickly,” said Jack Stewart, president of the California Manufacturers and Technology Association.

The first of its kind in the nation, the law requires California to roll back emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, a cut of roughly 25 percent. The law also directed the California Air Resources Board to implement programs to attain the goal, including a plan that details dozens of regulations.

The ballot measure would block the state from carrying out AB 32 until the state’s unemployment rate falls to 5.5 percent or less for four consecutive quarters. That has happened only twice in the past 11 years. The current rate is 12.6 percent.

With his environmental legacy at risk, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger opposes the initiative. But he has directed the air board to slow its regulatory push and to keep the fragile economy in mind while weighing new rules.

National politics is another wild card. While still moving at glacial pace, the Obama administration and Congress continue to pursue climate change strategies as part of national standards that would trump a state initiative.

Mac Taylor, the nonpartisan state legislative analyst, estimates in a report that as many as half of California’s global warming policies will move forward if the initiative passes.

That’s because many of the programs were put in place independent of AB 32. Regulations that aim to solve ills such as slowing the drain on the power grid probably would not be suspended because reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not a primary goal of the policy.

Dan Pellissier, a global warming adviser to Schwarzenegger, said it’s clear that some of those missions will not need to be curtailed.


