Why Democrats Are Still Worried

As the presidential campaign heads into the home stretch—14 days and counting—Democrats like me are careening wildly between competing impulses: anxiety and ebullience.

A raft of recent polls suggest that Barack Obama has opened a substantial and statistically significant lead. But if past is prologue, that lead will shrink, as voters reconsider their decisions one last time. John McCain will continue his relentless attacks, trying to ju-jitsu potential mistakes—like Joe Biden’s suggestion that, if elected, President Obama will be “tested” in the early months of his new administration—into renewed momentum. World events threaten to intervene. And the effect of race remains a mystery. Add to that Democrats’ knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and you get a finale that is bound to turn squirrelly. This can’t be over fast enough for me.

But as the clock ticks down, there isn’t a single area where McCain appears to have an advantage—or even a real opportunity. Not one. Obama has simply outplayed him in every aspect of the campaign game.

By reinventing campaign fundraising for the Internet age, Obama has crushed McCain and the GOP in the money contest. He showed early on that he could leverage enthusiasm for his candidacy into cold, hard cash, and literally millions of donors have written checks, large and mostly small. Moreover, his decision to forgo public financing—which was politically and fiscally risky—has paid off, and then some. Not only is he outspending McCain on television by roughly three-to-one, he hasn’t had to make the difficult choices about where to fight and where to fold; he is simply competing everywhere.

He has also out-organized McCain. In recent presidential elections, the Republicans have had a larger, more precisely targeted ground game, enabling them to identify their voters and get them to the polls. And since McCain wrapped up his party’s nomination when he won Florida in mid-January—nearly six months before Obama—he should have had a huge head start in recreating that operation for the general election. But he blew it. And instead, it was Obama, fighting through a long and contested primary season, who cultivated volunteers, built the networks, and laid the ground work not just for the spring, but also for the fall. This cycle, Democrats have an advantage both in registering new voters—and in making sure they actually cast a ballot.

Obama has been more disciplined, in strategy, tactics, and message. The Democrat’s campaign made an early decision to try and expand the electoral map, and they targeted states like Virginia and Colorado early on. In addition, competitive primaries in states like Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana has put those states in play and, at a minimum, forced McCain to compete there. Obama has out-hustled McCain, making substantially more appearances, especially in battleground states. And he has seldom been drawn off his game, sticking to his message even in the face of scurrilous attacks from the other side. He never lost his cool during during the tumultuous negotiations over the Wall Street bailout or in any of the three debates, and his steady performances in recent weeks have been rewarded with increased voter confidence.

So how does McCain do it? How does he get voters to give him a second look, while raising doubts about Obama? I just don’t see it. It’s hard enough that McCain is dragging the dead weight of the failed Bush Administration up a very, very steep hill. But he’s also been overmatched by the “inexperienced” candidate in every fundamental aspect of the game.

But I’m still not making party plans for January 20. This long and unpredictable campaign may have another plot twist in the final act. The world is still a dangerous and unpredictable place. And we’re still Democrats. Which means I’ll probably spend a lot of the next two weeks with my head under the covers.

John McCain