Figure 2: Relationship between subjective probabilities and wager amount. Negative wagers correspond to bets on underdogs. Probability of favorite spread victory is given by Equation 5 with α = 0 . 067. q ( w ) = 1 − p ( w ) is probability of underdog spread victory. Probability of favorite game victory ρ ( w ) given by Equation 6 with σ = 12 . 8 and s$_{0}$ = 5. 13 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Wager 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Probability Fav. Spread Victory Und. Spread Victory Fav. Game Victory p(w) ( w) q(w) Improper Reference Proper  Reference