Figure 1-3.  In attempting to turn toward the runway, the instructor  pilot landed short in an uncontrolled manner, destroying the aircraft  and injuring both pilots. In scenario 3, what level of risk does the fatigued pilot  present? Is the risk equal in all scenarios and conditions?  Probably not. For example, look at three different conditions  in which the pilot could be flying:  In these weather conditions, not only the mental acuity of  the pilot but also the environment he or she operates within  affects the risk level. For the relatively new pilot versus a  highly experienced pilot, flying in weather, night experience,  and familiarity with the area are assessed differently to  determine potential risk. For example, the experienced pilot  who typically flies at night may appear to be a low risk, but  other factors such as fatigue could alter the risk assessment. In scenario 4, what level of risk does the pilot who used the  bolts from the local hardware center pose? The bolts look and  feel the same as the recommended hardware, so why spend  the extra money? What risk has this homebuilder created?  The bolts purchased at the hardware center were simple low- strength material bolts while the wing bolts specified by the  manufacturer were close-tolerance bolts that were corrosion  resistant. The bolts the homebuilder employed to attach the  wings would probably fail under the stress of takeoff. Risk is the degree of uncertainty. An examination of risk  management yields many definitions, but it is a practical  approach to managing uncertainty. [ Figure 1-4 ] Risk  assessment is a quantitative value assigned to a task, action,  or event. [ Figure 1-5 ] When armed with the predicted  assessment of an activity, pilots are able to manage and  reduce (mitigate) their risk. Take the use of improper  hardware on a homebuilt aircraft for construction. Although  one can easily see both the hazard is high and the severity is  extreme, it does take the person who is using those bolts to  recognize the risk. Otherwise, as is in many cases, the chart  in  Figure 1-5  is used after the fact. Managing risk takes  discipline in separating oneself from the activity at hand in  order to view the situation as an unbiased evaluator versus  Risk is the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or  eliminated. It can be viewed as future uncertainty created by  the hazard. If it involves skill sets, the same situation may  yield different risk.  ahead, the aircraft would have at least been under control at  the time of the impact. There are several advantages to landing under control: •  The pilot can continue flying to miss the trees and land  right side up to enhance escape from the aircraft after  landing.  •  If the aircraft lands right side up instead of nose down,  or even upside down, there is more structure to absorb  the impact stresses below the cockpit than there is  above the cockpit in most aircraft.  •  Less impact stress on the occupants means fewer  injuries and a better chance of escape before fires begin.  1.  If the nick is not properly evaluated, the potential for  propeller failure is unknown. 2.  If the aircraft is not properly bonded and grounded,  there is a build-up of static electricity that can and  will seek the path of least resistance to ground. If the  static discharge ignites the fuel vapor, an explosion  may be imminent. 3.  A fatigued pilot is not able to perform at a level  commensurate with the mission requirements. 1.  Day visual meteorological conditions (VMC) flying  visual flight rules (VFR) 2.  Night VMC flying VFR 3.  Night instrument meteorological conditions (IMC)  flying instrument flight rules (IFR) 4.  The owner of a homebuilt aircraft decides to use  bolts from a local hardware store that cost less than  the recommended hardware, but look the same and  appear to be a perfect match, to attach and secure the  aircraft wings. The potential for the wings to detach  during flight is unknown.  Managing Risks Risk Defining Risk  1-5