FIG. 5: Daily data of the calculated purchase intention (green) and the observed number of blog- writing entry(red) for Pirates of Carribean At World’s End in Japanese market. . Each movie can be considered almost individually. In order to predict hit of other products like car, computer, foods or fashions, we should take into account the competition with other rival products in the same market. Our mathematical model of hit phenomena include the indirect communication term. As we shown in ref.[2], if we neglect the indirect communication term in our model, we obtain easily the Bass model which has been known as the model of diffusion of informations by word of mouth[4–6]. Since the effect of the indirect communication cannot be neglect in the adjustment of the simulation with the real blog data, we found that the Bass model cannot reproduce the big hit phenomena because of the lack of the nonlinear indirect communication term. 11