Figure 6: Mean polarization shift ¯ δ vs. initial wager difference, w$_{3}$ − w$_{1}$ , for data and RPM and ASC simulations. ( a ) Complete network. ( b ) Chain network. Favorite groups shown on the positive x axis, underdogs on the negative. ¯ δ is mean of δ = | ¯ w |$_{f}$ −| ¯ w$_{0}$ | over groups at each point and is defined so that δ > 0 indicates a risky shift for both favorite and underdog groups. Experimental data shown as circles. Error bars are standard errors. Sample sizes from left to right: chain: 12, 6, 6, 15, 14, 38. complete: 10, 6, 13, 5, 9, 22 (no $5 disagreement groups were used as there were only four total). p$_{max}$ = 0 . 71 for RPM. p$_{max}$ = 0 . 7 , λ$_{1}$$_{,}$$_{2}$$_{,}$$_{3}$ (0) = 0 . 03 , λ$_{min}$ = 0 . 01 for ASC. ρ ( w ) given by Equation 6 with σ = 12 . 8. χ 2 values are the sum of the squared errors between the simulated and the experimental values normalized by the standard error at each data point. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 wager difference ($) -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 mean polarization shift ($) Complete data 2 RPM 6.4 ASC 4.3 a -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 wager difference ($) -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 mean polarization shift ($) Chain data 2 RPM 2.7 ASC 6.4 b 35