Assessing Risk  Risk  Likelihood of an Event  Figure 2-5.  This risk matrix can be used for almost any operation  by assigning likelihood and consequence. In the case presented,  the pilot assigned a likelihood of occasional and the severity as  catastrophic. As one can see, this falls in the high risk area.  During each flight, the single pilot makes many decisions  under hazardous conditions. To fly safely, the pilot needs  to assess the degree of risk and determine the best course of  action to mitigate the risk.  For the single pilot, assessing risk is not as simple as it sounds.  For example, the pilot acts as his or her own quality control  in making decisions. If a fatigued pilot who has flown 16  hours is asked if he or she is too tired to continue flying, the  answer may be “no.” Most pilots are goal oriented and when  asked to accept a flight, there is a tendency to deny personal  limitations while adding weight to issues not germane to the  mission. For example, pilots of helicopter emergency services  (EMS) have been known (more than other groups) to make  flight decisions that add significant weight to the patient’s  welfare. These pilots add weight to intangible factors (the  patient in this case) and fail to appropriately quantify actual  hazards, such as fatigue or weather, when making flight  decisions. The single pilot who has no other crew member  for consultation must wrestle with the intangible factors that  draw one into a hazardous position. Therefore, he or she has  a greater vulnerability than a full crew.  cause the pilot to assign “occasional” to determine the  probability of encountering IMC.  The following are guidelines for making assignments.  Examining National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)  reports and other accident research can help a pilot learn to  assess risk more effectively. For example, the accident rate  during night visual flight rules (VFR) decreases by nearly  50 percent once a pilot obtains 100 hours and continues to  decrease until the 1,000 hour level. The data suggest that for  the first 500 hours, pilots flying VFR at night might want to  establish higher personal limitations than are required by the  regulations and, if applicable, apply instrument flying skills  in this environment.  The next element is the severity or consequence of a pilot’s  action(s). It can relate to injury and/or damage. If the  individual in the example above is not an instrument rated  pilot, what are the consequences of him or her encountering  inadvertent IMC conditions? In this case, because the pilot  is not IFR rated, the consequences are catastrophic. The  following are guidelines for this assignment.  Several risk assessment models are available to assist in the  process of assessing risk. The models, all taking slightly  different approaches, seek a common goal of assessing risk  in an objective manner. The most basic tool is the risk matrix.  [Figure 2-5]  It assesses two items: the likelihood of an event  occurring and the consequence of that event.  Likelihood is nothing more than taking a situation and  determining the probability of its occurrence. It is rated as  probable, occasional, remote, or improbable. For example, a  pilot is flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal  visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions. The likelihood of  encountering potential instrument meteorological conditions  (IMC) is the first question the pilot needs to answer. The  experiences of other pilots, coupled with the forecast, might  Although the matrix in  Figure 2-5  provides a general viewpoint  of a generic situation, a more comprehensive program can be  made that is tailored to a pilot’s flying.  [Figure 2-6]  This  program includes a wide array of aviation-related activities  specific to the pilot and assesses health, fatigue, weather,  Simply connecting the two factors as shown in  Figure 2-5  indicates the risk is high and the pilot must either not fly or  fly only after finding ways to mitigate, eliminate, or control  the risk.  Severity of an Event  • Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss • Critical—severe injury, major damage • Marginal—minor injury, minor damage • Negligible—less than minor injury, less than minor system damage • Improbable—an event is highly unlikely to occur • Remote—an event is unlikely to occur, but is possible  • Occasional—an event will probably occur sometime • Probable—an event will occur several times 2-6  Catastrophic  Critical  Marginal  Negligible  Improbable  Remote  Occasional  Probable  Risk Assessment Matrix  Likelihood  Severity  Serious  Low Medium Serious  Serious High  High  High 