list hazards associated with all aspects of the flight:  P ilot,  A ircraft, en V ironment, and  E xternal pressures, which makes  up the PAVE checklist.  [Figure 2-11]  For each element,  ask “what could hurt me, my passengers, or my aircraft?”  All four elements combine and interact to create a unique  situation for any flight. Pay special attention to the pilot- aircraft combination, and consider whether the combined  “pilot-aircraft team” is capable of the mission you want to fly.  For example, you may be a very experienced and proficient  pilot, but your weather flying ability is still limited if you  are flying a 1970s-model aircraft with no weather avoidance  gear. On the other hand, you may have a new technically  advanced aircraft with moving map GPS, weather datalink,  and autopilot—but if you do not have much weather flying  experience or practice in using this kind of equipment, you  cannot rely on the airplane’s capability to compensate for  your own lack of experience.  In the second step, the goal is to process this information to  determine whether the identified hazards constitute risk, which  is defined as the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled  or eliminated. The degree of risk posed by a given hazard  can be measured in terms of exposure (number of people or  resources affected), severity (extent of possible loss), and  probability (the likelihood that a hazard will cause a loss). The  goal is to evaluate their impact on the safety of your flight,  and consider “why must I CARE about these circumstances?”  For each hazard that you perceived in step one, process by  using the CARE checklist of:  C onsequences,  A lternatives,  R eality,  E xternal factors.  [Figure 2-12]  For example, let's  evaluate a night flight to attend a business meeting:  The goal is to perform by taking action to eliminate hazards  or mitigate risk, and then continuously evaluate the outcome  of this action. With the example of low ceilings at destination,  for instance, the pilot can perform good ADM by selecting  a suitable alternate, knowing where to find good weather,  Once you have perceived a hazard (step one) and processed  its impact on flight safety (step two), it is time to move to the  third step, perform. Perform risk management by using the  TEAM checklist of:  T ransfer,  E liminate,  A ccept,  M itigate  to deal with each factor.  [Figure 2-13]  A good rule of thumb for the processing phase: if you find  yourself saying that it will “probably” be okay, it is definitely  time for a solid reality check. If you are worried about missing  a meeting, be realistic about how that pressure will affect  not just your initial go/no-go decision, but also your inflight  decisions to continue the flight or divert.  C onsequences—departing after a full workday creates  fatigue and pressure  T ransfer—Should this risk decision be transferred to  someone else (e.g., do you need to consult the chief  flight instructor?)  E liminate—Is there a way to eliminate the hazard?  A ccept—Do the benefits of accepting risk outweigh  the costs?  M itigate—What can you do to mitigate the risk?  A lternatives—delay until morning; reschedule  meeting; drive  R eality —dangers and distractions of fatigue could  lead to an accident  E xternal pressures—business meeting at destination  might influence me  TEAM Checklist: Choose and Implement Risk  Controls  CARE Checklist: Review Hazards and Evaluate Risks  Figure 2-11.  A real-world example of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip using the PAVE checklist.  2-16  Pilots can perceive hazards by using the PAVE checklist:  EnVironment  Departure and destination airports have long runways.  Weather is the main hazard. Although it is VFR, it is a typical  summer day in the Mid-Atlantic region: hot (near 90 °F) hazy Pilot  (visibility 7 miles), and humid with a density altitude of 2,500  Gayle is a healthy and well-rested private pilot with  feet. Weather at the destination airport (located in the  approximately 300 hours total flight time. Hazards include her  mountains) is still IMC but forecast to improve to visual  lack of overall and cross-country experience and the fact that  meteorological conditions (VMC) prior to her arrival. En route  she has not flown at all in 2 months.  weather is VMC, but there is an AIRMET Sierra for pockets of  IMC over mountain ridges along the proposed route of flight.  Aircraft  Although it does not have a panel-mount GPS or weather  avoidance gear, the aircraft—a C182 Skylane with long-range fuel tanks—is in good mechanical condition with no inoperative  equipment. The instrument panel is a standard “six-pack.” External pressures  Gayle is making the trip to spend a weekend with relatives she  does not see very often. Her family is very excited and has  made a number of plans for the visit. 