Task 2. Establish baseline Task 3. Assess future levels of embodied carbon based on business as usual  The contractor will establish a baseline for embodied carbon across the EU and can detail this  baseline according to suitable existing methodologies for estimating embodied carbon in the  construction sector (including but not limited to PEF, EN 15804, EN15978, EN16485,  EN16449 and ISO 14067). As a minimum, this will be done for the construction activity  relating to new buildings and for deep renovation. Lighter standard refurbishment types can  be added if considered relevant. The baseline will cover various kinds of buildings, including,  as a minimum, residential, offices, schools, commercial and retail. Relevant different  typologies will be covered, and set out in the offer. This baseline will be established for appropriate regions of the EU (typically grouping a set of  countries or parts of countries) based on aspects such as climate, building culture and  material, level of urbanisation, but also national or regional policies in place or under  development linked to embodied carbon metrics, or any other factor(s) deemed pertinent. It is  the task of the contractor to justify a methodology to divide the EU into regions for this work. This task shall be based as much as possible on bottom up data (building level) but also  combined with top down data (national output data for material production, construction and  renovation activity data, energy mixes, national greenhouse gas inventory, economic statistics  etc.) in order to derive sufficiently reliable figures. This task will carefully study published  material, paying particular attention to meta studies and reports developed to underpin  national initiatives, but will also have to go beyond desk research to broaden the information  gathering. Tenderers shall set out a strategy in the offer for how this research will be  conducted.  Tenders will explain the reasons behind underpinning the various baselines for different parts  of the EU. This will be done together with an overall visualisation of what contributes to  embodied carbon in buildings in general including the levels of magnitude of these  contributions. This visualisation shall go beyond a life cycle assessment but rather discuss  factors such as design options (form, direction, use of windows), material use and sourcing,  circularity, renovation strategies, use of built space per capita and any other factor deemed  important to give a good understanding of impacts and later on of reduction potentials.  The result of this task forms the basis for the following tasks and shall give a clear  understanding of the typical levels of embodied carbon along the factors set out above. It shall  for all regions present figures on the micro (building level) as well as the macro level  (national level) and set the latter in context of the overall national carbon emissions and  climate objectives. Having established the baseline, this task will set out how the levels of embodied carbon in  the different regions for a representative set of building types and typologies can be expected  to evolve, up to 2050. Suitable milestones are suggested to be 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, but  if there is a good reason, tenderers can propose others, as long as the near future is well  represented and the scenarios go as far as 2050.  To set out the business as usual trajectories, the contractor shall take into account all relevant  developments in society considered as having a major impact on embodied carbon. Examples  include announced policies at European and national levels, reasonable (not ambitious)  7