Reading a lot of the NG twitter and see a lot of "producers will do what they always do" in response to the price rally, implying that producers will ramp up production and push down price. 

Consider that:

• Appalachia is pipe constrained so outside of winter, they can't grow if they wanted to. 

• 80% of Haynesville growth was from privates.  Many are gone, the biggest wants to IPO, the ones that remain are dealing with declining productivity and higher rates. 

• Investors want low debt and FCF with upside, not growth, so do not expect public (or pre-IPO) companies to hedge to grow on the first rally of the cycle. 

Based on this and my reading of producer commentary, I personally do not expect a meaningful increase in activity until the 2nd half of the year despite the current price rally (which I would expect enters a period of consolidation soon).

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