「 AGENTIC OUTLOOK 」- v.3
Few things i want to cover in this thread

1. Recap of Agents / AI over the past months
2. Reflect on Obvious Market Plays

Had a bit of time off over new years, watched a lot unfold from sidelines, reflected a lot on what went well, mistakes made etc

Will do my best to break down all my thoughts

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1. Recap of Agents / AI over the past months

[ AI agents Recap ]
>extremely happy with how we ended the year

>very early into a lot of AI, AGENT, INFRA narratives since september/early october

>didnt mid curve anything, could see how obvious this was the next stage for the AI supercycle etc ( there will be many more major catalysts )

>this is the maturity you get when you have been trading narratives for a long time, you can spot them and ape early with size without questioning too much

>even now im seeing guys arguing about chatgpt wrappers, this agent did this, this protocol didnt reply to me and other dumb shit

>who cares, here to make money - not be right

>remember what part of the cycle you're in, this is the key 

>every single arc has its own rules + strategies 

>this is why people end up holding old bags too long and miss entire easy mode narratives and when i say old they might be considered young, but at the pace we move its becomes relatively old

>remember, there will be new shit every day, liquidity will move faster - unless teams are able to communicate clearly and convey their ideas about roadmaps etc, money will move to the protocols that communicate better whilst shipping their ideas

>when i first saw goat i knew what was happening, covered it all very early - very surprised to see how long it took others to bridge to base or explore agents on sol

>major mid curve + PTSD, if it took you til now, you need to figure out why

>feel very grateful for the past months, not too many horrible losses

>caught ai16z 30m mc
>aixbt 30m mc
>game,convo sub 10m
>fxn 5m mc
>tophat 10x
>arc with size from 70m
>covered moemates, creatorbid etc all early
etc, lots of 10x 30x - amazing month in the trenches

>missed a lot too, missed zerebro, fartcoin (early), recently missed snai, swarm node  and all the desci ai launches - its ok, cant catch them all, but always good to reflect why you missed or why they pumped etc

[ QUALITY ]
>as always quality always wins
>quality devs
>quality branding
>novel ideas or unique tech with an edge
>quality communities
>quality information + communication

these are all the things we are constantly looking for
if more than two are missing, its danger, why ? cause someone else will be doing it

For example over at virtuals atm, any quality teams launching agents or infra im just aping early, no thinking just ape, devs are doxxed, they have been in space for 5 years+ , they are apart of protocols - if i find these early, just ape

>you dont even need to ape much to have a big win either, i just chucked 4k usd on GEKKO when first found at 4m mc because it was made by axal team and they had received funding from a16z - thats enough for me - ape, had a wicked run to 40m and im sure it will go again, 4k to to 40k is huge, its a years wage for some, you dont need to ape huge amounts sometimes to make good profit, dont ever think 2k or 4k isnt a good amount of capital 

>another ive been accumulating is acolyt, cracked team, similar sort of narrative, again said this before, if theres 100 different agents delivering quality alpha, the only thing separating them will be identity, UI, branding, Devs etc - just like anything in life

this is all im looking for, teams that have been building for ages - cracked mother fuckers constantly tweeting, shipping - thats where my moneys going, nowhere else

[ Things to Stay away From ]
>Undoxxed single dev teams - stay away, not worth it, especially when building speculative Agents etc

>Also another thing to stay away from is individual 'personalities' making agents - been common to see them announce it then completely abandon it once they realise the responsibility

[ Struggling Narratives ]
>i hate to admit this but there was a lot of narratives that i personally really like that struggled too, not saying they are bad, they are just moving slower

No one will deny it sucks to park capital into a project that looks promising only to watch it dwindle whilst everything around is pulling 2-3x's

>they are usually slow cookers or ended up being betas to other projects 

few examples like $GRIFT + $REALIS + $OMEGA, i still hold a few of these but realistically should of cut them and moved into stronger AI INFRA, more obvious + stronger plays like REI, ARC etc - i had around 100-120k in these beta plays that i was expecting to take up a large market share, in hindsight griffain with the support of solana etc proved to be too strong, where as projects like realis need more time to mature because their ideas are so dystopian or their teams arent as big etc

>In hindsight, when you are hitting 20-30x on something like game you have capital to play/lose, so you dont mind leaving money in a project thats moving slow - but in reality as an trader or investor you should never treat it like that 

Will keep sharing thoughts and market plays on agents over the coming weeks - but will also be looking for the next big rotation as well - we all know no narrative lasts for ever, this might not necessarily mean Agents are over, but they might be ready to evolve

Remember, everything is accelerating now, fast, in all directions, they minute you stop paying attention you're fucked - bag holder, potato is getting hotter day by day

you have to stay tuned in.
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2. Reflection on Obvious Market Plays
>obvious to some not so much to others, i wont use every single example but will cover  some of the major ones and share some thoughts on how i approached the narrative

[ VIRTUALS ]
>when i first saw GOAT take off, i was infatuated by it, i invested immediately once i realised what was going on, then i completely missed zerebro + bully which had incredible runs so far - after this i was eager to try find the next best thing

>enter @aixbt_agent, as soon as i saw what it was doing i knew that this was the next best thing, especially after watching $GOAT, $ZEREBRO, $BULLY commenting on the TL, i saw that we were shifting from entertainment to utility, this was what got me interested in base, virtuals, $GAME, $CONVO - it was actually @Defi0xJeff article on virtuals becoming a billion dollar protocol that got me convinced virtuals was going to be big ( tokenomics, branding, base etc )

>this allowed me to finally understand frameworks properly when trying to research GAME, this knowledge led to many other great investments over the coming weeks - im not a tech nerd, i dont fully understand everything - i am interested however and willing to learn as much as possible on the subject

>funnily enough at 500-600m mc i never invested in virtuals 

>i think once you confirm, ok this ecosystem is going to what. 5b, 10b maybe even 20b, you have to look at the first movers, or the agents constantly consuming mindshare 

> $luna First mover
> $Vader First DAO/ALPHA 
 
Many good cookers in this ecosystem, for me the team is the key

Team, then concept/utility, then brand/identity

The holy trinity 

Other good projects to research:
> $WAI
> $ACOLYT
> $SEKOIA 
> $GEKKO

all worth watching plus anything under the @agentstarter umbrella

[ AI16z ]
>this might sound retarded but when i first saw and shilled @daosdotfun i literally aped ai16z just based on the name - after all the research i had done with marc funding truth terminal and so on, i just knew it was a cook

again, once you start to see info coming out about ai16zdao attracting cracked devs from all over the world to accelerate their entire ecosystem + framework 

YOU KNOW  its going to go - github exploding, momentum building.... why midcurve ?

>there was some fud here and there but also their beta eco plays in agents $ELIZA + $DEGENAI, both very obvious plays, eliza reached 160m mc and @degenspartanai tapped 100m  - as ai16z keeps growing expect both of these to go 

again very obvious plays

[ OTHER ECO ]
>in agentic outlook one, i covered every single major launchpad/protocol etc and their alpha agents or beta plays

@CreatorBid | $BID ( dark horse )
@Agent_Algo @ 2-3m mc now 25m 
( obvious play )

@HoloworldAI | $AVA
@AVA_holo  @ ~25m to 150m 

@vvaifudotfun  | $VVAIFU 
@dasha @ 15m to 150m
their eco worth checking
> $UOS 
> $AIMONICA
> $STOIC 

@MoemateAI  | $MATES ( soon )
we covered @nebula_moemate | $MOE early, very early 
5m - 25m 
 
Other Ecos Covered.
@alchemistAIapp | $ALCH
@joinFXN | $FXN
@arcdotfun | $ARC 
@griffain | $GRIFFAIN
@TopHat_One | $HAT 
@EmpyrealSDK | $EMP
@Spectral_Labs | $SPEC 
@tri_sigma_ | $TRISIG
^many good X's

Thread Covering All Here:
https://t.co/bJ8XWYluNo

the list goes on and on, all of this goes higher much higher - these were the obvious plays

Again, im still in other plays that i believe to be obvious like $GRIFT, $REALIS etc, i think they just need more time and tweaking 

Few i didnt cover in time was 
$REI | @ReiNetwork0x 
$SERV | @openservai 
$HEU | @heurist_ai etc all worth a mention especially rei

Outside of Onchain  i love DEFI x AGENTS
$MODE | @modenetwork i think will be very big

As well as waiting on developments from @UomiNetwork 

>Stick with the best teams and infra + attention/hype/mindshare and you cant go wrong

>For me Agents will live and die fast, because most dont have what it takes to sustain attention for long periods of time - to me AIXBT + GOAT are the kings + epitome of agent success

>WHY REFLECT ON ALL OF THIS.
>HELPS YOU TO SEE THE NEXT PLAY.

[ NOTE ]
>its worth looking at a lot of the early projects like $GNON, $PROJECT89 $AVB etc
$OPUS down 85% - the earlier AI projects have bottomed out

>you have to pray they are building, but also dont forget, the ceiling for AI INFRA/AGENTS is astronomically high

>every week new ideas, concepts better than the last with better teams and branding etc

>hence why you need to scan the entire market constantly, not saying any of these projects are bad, just highlighting how fast the trenches move on  - a lot of these experienced 80-100x traders take profit and move onto the next best thing, whether its swarms, desci, defi agents etc

Good teams will find ways to stay relevant for longer 

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Lastly, some things worth keeping an eye on 
@HeyAnonai 
@AIWayfinder 
@TalusNetwork 
@getbasedai 
@arbius_ai 
@daosdotworld 
@PrimeIntellect 
@Galadriel_AI 

Theres also a lot of hackathons going on atm yielding some VERY interesting ideas/projects, very helpful to expand your knowledge/mind on whats to come.

AI AGENT DATA SOURCES
@cookiedotfun | $COOKIE
@Alphanomics_io 
@Decentralisedco w/ sentient market

Next few days lets discuss where things are going in the agentic space so we can be ahead of the pack when the narrative begins to turn

If i missed anything drop it in the comments!

Tomb