Why are yields going up?

See the mortgage rate chart below. Yields went straight down until the Fed cut 50 basis points on September 18. Since then, yields have been going straight up.

Based on this alone, a good place to start is monetary policy. Maybe the market does not like Fed rate cuts. It views them as unnecessary, as GDP growth is at its potential (2.5%), and big fiscal stimulus is coming with Trump. So, cutting rates raises inflation expectations even though gasoline prices are falling (two-line chart).

Instead, this is what we are getting.

Reuters – Treasury yield surge reflects expectations of more long-term debt
https://t.co/5UNc4NLIUt

Former Chicago Fed President Charlie Evans was asked why yields are soaring while the Fed cuts rates. He said many things are happening and pointed to the deficit and tariffs. He also went to everyone’s default when you don’t have an answer…AI.
https://t.co/LMJ7raBQ4A

And my personal favorite!!

MarketWatch – Paul Krugman thinks bond yields may be rising due to an ‘insanity premium’
https://t.co/lCmiqNl5Oh

“[I]ncreases in long-term rates, like the 10-year Treasury rate, might reflect the horrible, creeping suspicion that Donald Trump actually believes the crazy things he says about economic policy and will act on those beliefs,” he wrote in a post titled, “Is There an Insanity Premium on Interest Rates?”
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The problem with proclaiming that yields are rising because of debt, deficits, tariffs, and/or AI is that these factors were also present on September 17, when the 10-year yield was 3.60% (4.70% today). The change in these factors is not enough to explain this yield rise. 

However, the picture becomes clearer when an unnecessary 50 basis cut to start and 100 basis points in total are added into the mix.

To me, this makes more sense than going with the insanity defense.