The fundamental, narrative driven, drivel can be tiring - particularly if you have to sit through an entire essay written by yours truly on Fantom's $FTM transition to Sonic $S @SonicLabs.

We can speak on what went wrong, why it did after the fact, who did what, external parties, and more... Or we can simply just look to the data, metrics and charts to provide some guidance on the next opportunity.

If you had the chance to read the quoted tweet, despite the recent failures, I am still extremely bullish on the outlook of Sonic both fundamentally, but more important, technically. 

I like charts. Charts don't lie. No feelings, no emotions, just candles and the order book dictating.

The beauty of the situation we are in? One chart is about to end, one is about to begin. 

I see this as one of the great opportunities that exist in crypto today (NFA, DYOR). 

Shall we?

Firstly, the market dynamics of Fantom (FTM) before it is fully delisted across the next 3-4 days on both spot and futures and then relisted as Sonic (S) in the days thereafter... 

Whilst the fundamental reasonings behind Fantom's transition to Sonic have evidently spelled out a somewhat failure in terms of price, much of it can be allocated to the workings of the existing futures positions that were opened (and now forcibly cancelled), the incorrect communication of the delisting/relisting's and the launch of Solana's very own Sonic SVM which stole the ticker $SONIC and created pure mayhem in launching at the exact same time. Well played @solana. 

First - the forcible closures of margin/futures positions across ALL exchanges for FTM. Given these cannot be automatically upgraded to S positions - all traders, those mega long, at any prices lower than what FTM was prior to launch, would have been seeking to close these positions and thus sell. 

Hence, from a risk perspective, every trader had to close their positions knowing they were up against every other trader closing theirs first. Snowball effect. We have a situation whereby the market was dropping, people were selling the news, long liquidation cascades were occurring naturally, but into the hands of further forced selling as traders could not have these positions open past a certain date and understood one way or another they had to de-risk or risk losing a ton of profits as other traders begin to sell off their positions in preparation for the delisting. 

The result? Open interest dives, taking price with it:
They are almost identical charts. 

Currently, we have roughly $31m in Open Interest left to go with FTM until it is fully depleted, FTM is delisted for good off of all Centralised Exchanges and we begin to see Sonic $S listed across all exchanges (of which you can read in my quoted tweet and why CEX listings will be important in the great Sonic revival):
I am highlighting this as a generic metric to understand that the FORCED selling as a result of de-listings is pretty much done, with open interest dropping from as high as $240m to $30m currently, a -88% drop in less than a month. 

This is the first ✅ in my book for knowing we are close to a serious High Time Frame (HTF) bottom on the Fantom chart which in itself will produce the opening price of the brand new Sonic chart. 

The beauty of this move, no matter how it was driven, sent price right to our HTF S/R flip that represents the split between the bear market and bull market range, in which our major Golden Pocket retracement is. Price landed here 3 days ago and hasn't really budged - even on this current extended leg further down in BTC:
Hence, we are currently in a position knowing that PRICE has made its way to its strongest HTF support, whilst knowing forced selling is pretty much 90% done and is about to be 100% finished in a matter of days.

For additional confluence, FTM/BTC has made its way to HTF support that hasn't been lost in 4 years:
Seems the perfect technical analysis storm for reversion. 

Back to the OI & exchanges - ByBit delists today. Hyperliquid on the 12th. These two exchanges hold majority of the last Open Interest of FTM that there is. 

From there, the next 1-2 weeks begins the LISTINGS of Sonic (S). This removes all forced selling from FTM, removes all miscommunication, all confusion, and even then, all exchanges will be providing articles and advertisements that they have in fact listed Sonic with the ticker $S, which in fact differs to the Solana Sonic SVM with the ticker $SONIC to remove that ghastly confusion too.

As a result, those that were long and had to remove their positions will seek to re-open them on the S tickers that come to exchanges.

This is all occurring in a timely manner in which BTC seeks reversion from HTF support at either current pricing in $90-$92k, or at $85k (hopefully).

The perfect recipe.

Hence, in conclusion, with forceable closures ceasing to exist in a matter of days, removed conflicting messages of delisting's, re-listings with heavily detailed advertising, a HTF $FTM bottom reached, alongside a HTF FTM/FTM bottom reached and hopefully a HTF $BTC bottom in succession, that the fresh beginnings and chart of Sonic $S is set to flourish. 

Up, and up to the right.

Just like Total Value Locked (TVL). 

Keen to see all of these metrics in 2 months time in what I believe is one of the great opportunities to kick off 2025. 

As always, DYOR, NFA, stay safe, and long live $FTM and $S.