J-Cal: OpenAI Has Peaked

@Jason's take: "I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being underappreciated."

1) Major AI competition from the best in the world

-- @xAI: just getting started, and @elonmusk already has a major breakthrough with colossus

-- @Google: after early hiccups, the team has gotten focused and started kicking ass

-- @Microsoft: holds all the cards, CEO Satya Nadella was " almost like laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code, and that they didn't even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all."

-- @Meta: zuck is hyper-focused on open-source, creating downward pressure on pricing

2) Devs prefer open-source

-- "The developers I know all want to do open-source. They don't want to be beholden to OpenAI and Sam Altman."

3) $157B valuation is too high, given legal risks

-- " There's a non-zero chance they could lose these court cases of transferring $157B in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit."

-- " I think that whole thing could blow up in Sam Altman's lap."