With $TSLA now back below my $380 price target I thought it might be helpful to review positive and negative catalysts 6-12 months out. 

Near-term TSLA positive catalysts include: 1/ new $25K-$30K vehicle to be launched in 1H, which we believe will introduce a new form factor and extend TSLA TAM to the compact category (12-15% global volume);  and 2/ commitment by President-elect Trump to streamline a federal regulatory authority for unsupervised generalized autonomy, which would benefit TSLA most. This would replace efforts to gain approval state-by-state employed by TSLA today. 

Potential negative catalysts include: 1/ elimination of the $7,500 EV credit, which in France and Germany cut 2024 EV sales by -36% and -41% respectively (per @TroyTeslike), and would impact TSLA earnings and valuation far more than $GM or $F;  2/ potential price and cost cuts (battery size, mnfg efficiency) in 1H rather than a new form factor that expands TSLA TAM to the compact category. In the EV category, new form factors sell, as we saw with Model Y in 2020-2021, which vaulted TSLA into the CUV category (30-35% global volume).

My 6-12 month price target of $380 assumes 2030 TSLA volumes of 8.1M (90M global SAAR x 50% global EV adoption x TSLA 18% global EV share) and 2030 TSLA Adj EPS of $17.  At a P/E of 1.5x-2.0x 2030-forward EPS growth of 25% , I compute a 2030 forward value of $744 (1.75x 25x $17 =$744). At a 14.2% cost of equity (4.0% 10yrTY, 6% equity risk premium, 1.7x beta) discounted back 5 years equates to $380.