People are way too bearish now.

Time frame issues IMO.

Yes, most crypto natives are tired and many even traumatized. Under normal conditions that can actually create a top. But this time Tradfi is here buying bitcoin (it is not Saylor alone). They could not care less about crypto natives' traumas.

So ask yourselves: is the equities top in. That's the key. As ETFs should ensure correlations stick around.

And to answer that you have to ask yourselves another question: is the Fed cutting cycle over?

I don't think so. 

We just had the Fed announce a temporary pause, which by now is mostly priced in. Temporary, not permanent. Read what Fed officials are saying. They all still advocate for further cuts. And the market is barely pricing a little over 1 cut for 2025. This was 7 three months ago.

I think the narrative will soon change again away from a hawkish Fed and the sell-off in long term interest rates. Trump is around the corner.

Yes we do have smart money like Howard Marks now calling this an AI bubble. But he's been saying so *all* of 2024 and self-admittedly does not understand AI.

Meanwhile given the bearish economic data we just had (yesterday) and the chart, I would not be surprised if BTC trades into the 80s. But in my book that'd be short term noise requiring short term risk management.

Do think traders will now be selling BTC more actively above 100k, slowing things down, specially up to 105k. Do think macro matters a lot once again. And I'm not expecting easy mode going forward. Easy money is over. But I'm still expecting new ATHs. We have a very long year ahead.

Good luck trading