6/6

I would argue the Fed panicked over the Sahm Rule recession warning getting triggered in July. 

Even though they downplayed it in public, as did @Claudia_Sahm, I believe the Fed was politically terrified the trigger might be correct and how it would make them look if they were not responding. 

So, they "made up" by cutting by 50 basis points in September, citing worries about the labor market (meaning the Sahm Rule).

In other words, they made a series of political moves in the summer and fall, and the bond market reacted by spiking long-term yields. Now, they are somewhat trapped.

In my opinion, the Fed should not have been cutting, but it is too afraid of Trump's social media accounts to say it is done cutting and might have to hike if inflation continues to increase.

Eventually, the market will force the Fed to adopt the correct policy and is not interested in how Trump will react.

Again, this is what happens when you start making political decisions.