I’m reposting how I get to my $TSLA price target of $380, which is a base case that assumes zero standalone Robotaxi or Optimus valuation.  If I assume incremental earnings and value for Robotaxi and Optimus I could justify a TSLA “bull case” price target of $435. 

My TSLA base case price target of $380 is based on high conviction that TSLA will launch a $25K-$30K hatchback in 2025 1H that extends TSLA TAM into the global compact category (~15% global share).  This reminds me of 2020 when WS analysts significantly underestimated the TSLA TAM expansion as TSLA entered the CUV category with Model Y.  I assume a 20% take rate on TSLA FSD at $8,000 or $99/month (50%/50%).  

My TSLA earnings ests remain way above Wall Street (WS) estimates reflecting much higher than WS volume estimates:
- 2025 $3.80 vs WS $3.30 
- 2026 $5.60 vs WS $4.14
- 2027 $7.70 vs WS $5.26
- 2030 $17.00 vs WS $11.85

Assuming 2030 Adj EPS of $17, a PEG ratio of 1.75x, and expected long-term EPS growth of 25%, my 2030 PT equals $744 ($17 x 25% x 1.75x).  At a 14.2% cost of equity (10yrTY 4.0% + ERP 6.0% x TSLA beta 1.7x) discounted back 5 years that equates to a TSLA present value of $380.

If I assume 1/ robotaxi 2030 earnings of $1.00 EPS, which assumes 8 billion rides globally ex-China, 20% ride-hailing share and a 25% TSLA take rate, and 2/ Optimus 2030 earnings of $1.40 EPS, which assumes robot TAM quadruples to 2.0M robots and TSLA captures 50% share at a $20K ASP and 30% gross margin, I could add a total $2.40 incremental EPS to my 2030 EPS, which would translate to 2030 EPS of $19.40, justifying a 2030 value of $850 ($19.40 x 25% x 1.75), and increase my TSLA bull case PT to $435.