More re:  $NVDA trading history:  I don't believe the stock is a great short, but it is getting more difficult to justify 30x forward P/E.  Looking back to the prior valuation peaks in 2018 and 2021, we see that VALUATION (fwd P/E) peaked about 6 months before ESTIMATES (BBG 1yr forward EPS). In all likelihood, we are thus due for further de-rating. 

In the 2018 correction (~50% drawdown), NVDA's stock price traded much more in line with the SOX, and managed to hold on for several months despite a plateau in fwd earnings estimates.  In the end, it underperformed peers during the late 2018 correction. 

In the 2021-22 drawdown (-70%), NVDA's stock price was thematically tied to BITCOIN $XBTUSD, the November 2021 collapse of which predated NVDA's earnings peak by 4 months.  The depth of the drawdown was due to the valuation premium of around 60x fwd P/E enjoyed by NVDA at the peak of Bitcoin fervor.

In conclusion, NVIDIA has transitioned from being just another PC/gaming cycle derivative to a virtual monopoly with massive exposure to aggressive 4th Industrial Revolution capex being undertaken by a handful of tech giants.  That is undoubtedly a higher quality customer base than illegal Chinese Bitcoin miners.  On the other hand, the company is now much more beholden to specific customers than it ever was during its gaming days.  This is not an issue during the current AI spending boom.  When capex goes flat, however, one can imagine NVDA trading at lower cyclical multiples than it has in the past.