"everyone thinks Q1 will be bullish, so it won't"

being contrarian just for the sake of it not only exposes your lack of a systematic approach but also your inflated ego.

many people form their opinions merely by opposing the majority, rather than through logical reasoning.  they aspire to be the lone wolf who proves everyone else wrong, even at the cost of being illogical.

by the way: you're the one going against historical patterns, you're claiming "this time it's different". Do you wanna make money or do you wanna feed your ego? Good luck with going against historical probabilities.

that being said: higher, bears are fucked