Sentiment is the least optimistic it's been in a while.

The shift has moved the Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread above the zero line for the first time in more than 90 sessions.

In the 27 years we've been computing these models, there have been 13 streaks of 90 or more days with a negative spread. After the others, short-term returns were mixed, but the six-month returns were significantly above average.