Observation time to first detection of double neutron star mergers by   gravitational wave observatories
  We constrain the uncertainty in waiting times for detecting the first double-neutron-star (DNS) mergers by gravitational wave observatories. By accounting for the Poisson fluctuations in the rate density of DNS mergers and galaxy space density inhomogeneity in the local Universe, we define a detection `zone' as a region in a parameter space constrained by the double neutron star merger rate and two LIGO operations parameters: an observation horizon distance and science run duration. Assuming a mean rate of about 80 DNS mergers per Milky Way galaxy Myr^{-1}, we find a 1/20 chance of observing a merger by Enhanced LIGO in only 1 yr of observation. The minimum waiting time and temporal zone width for an Advanced LIGO sensitivity are much shorter and imply that there is a 95% probability of detecting a DNS merger in less than 60 days and a 1/20 chance of a first detection in about 1 day. At the 5% probability threshold for a first detection, we find that the effect of galaxy clusters on detection is smoothed out and may only influence detection rates after 5-10 years observation time. 
D.M. Coward