A litmus test for Lambda
  The critical issue in cosmology today lies in determining if the cosmological constant is the underlying ingredient of dark energy. Our profound lack of understanding of the physics of dark energy places severe constrains on our ability to say anything about its possible dynamical nature. Quoted errors on the equation of state, w(z), are so heavily dependent on necessarily over-simplified parameterisations they are at risk of being rendered meaningless. Moreover, the existence of degeneracies between the reconstructed w(z) and the matter and curvature densities weakens any conclusions still further. We propose consistency tests for the cosmological constant which provide a direct observational signal if Lambda is wrong, regardless of the densities of matter and curvature. As an example of its utility, our flat case test can warn of a small transition from w(z)=-1 of 20% from SNAP quality data at 4-sigma, even when direct reconstruction techniques see virtually no evidence for deviation from Lambda. It is shown to successfully rule out a wide range of non-Lambda dark energy models with no reliance on knowledge of Omega_m using SNAP-quality data and a large range for using 10^5 supernovae as forecasted for LSST. 
Caroline Zunckel (Oxford), Chris Clarkson (Cape Town)