The propagation of uncertainties in stellar population synthesis   modeling I: The relevance of uncertain aspects of stellar evolution and the   IMF to the derived physical properties of galaxies
  The stellar masses, mean ages, metallicities, and star formation histories of galaxies are now commonly estimated via stellar population synthesis (SPS) techniques. SPS relies on stellar evolution calculations from the main sequence to stellar death, stellar spectral libraries, phenomenological dust models, and stellar initial mass functions (IMFs). The present work is the first in a series that explores the impact of uncertainties in key phases of stellar evolution and the IMF on the derived physical properties of galaxies and the expected luminosity evolution for a passively evolving set of stars. A Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain approach is taken to fit near-UV through near-IR photometry of a representative sample of low- and high-redshift galaxies with this new SPS model. Significant results include the following: 1) including uncertainties in stellar evolution, stellar masses at z~0 carry errors of ~0.3 dex at 95% CL with little dependence on luminosity or color, while at z~2, the masses of bright red galaxies are uncertain at the ~0.6 dex level; 2) either current stellar evolution models, current observational stellar libraries, or both, do not adequately characterize the metallicity-dependence of the thermally-pulsating asymptotic giant branch phase; 3) conservative estimates on the uncertainty of the slope of the IMF in the solar neighborhood imply that luminosity evolution per unit redshift is uncertain at the ~0.4 mag level in the K-band, which is a substantial source of uncertainty for interpreting the evolution of galaxy populations across time; 4) The more plausible assumption of a distribution of stellar metallicities, rather than a fixed value as is usually assumed, can have significant effects on the interpretation of colors blueward of the V-band. (ABRIDGED) 
Charlie Conroy, James E. Gunn, Martin White