A Nonparametric Conjugate Prior Distribution for the Maximizing Argument   of a Noisy Function
  We propose a novel Bayesian approach to solve stochastic optimization problems that involve finding extrema of noisy, nonlinear functions. Previous work has focused on representing possible functions explicitly, which leads to a two-step procedure of first, doing inference over the function space and second, finding the extrema of these functions. Here we skip the representation step and directly model the distribution over extrema. To this end, we devise a non-parametric conjugate prior based on a kernel regressor. The resulting posterior distribution directly captures the uncertainty over the maximum of the unknown function. We illustrate the effectiveness of our model by optimizing a noisy, high-dimensional, non-convex objective function. 
Pedro A. Ortega, Jordi Grau-Moya, Tim Genewein, David Balduzzi, Daniel   A. Braun
stat.ML cs.AI math.ST stat.TH