A sequential Monte Carlo approach to computing tail probabilities in   stochastic models
  Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential Monte Carlo estimators, we show how resampling weights can be chosen to yield logarithmically efficient Monte Carlo estimates of large deviation probabilities for multidimensional Markov random walks. 
Hock Peng Chan, Tze Leung Lai
math.PR