The diffuse supernova neutrino background: Expectations and   uncertainties derived from SN1987A
  Context: The detection of the diffuse supernova neutrino background may be imminent, but theoretical predictions are affected by substantial uncertainties. AIMS. We calculate the signal and its uncertainty with the present configuration of Super-Kamiokande and consider the possibility of lowering the threshold by means of gadolinium loading. Methods: We model neutrino emission following the analysis of SN1987A by Pagliaroli and collaborators 2009 and use the number of expected events in the neutrino detector as a free parameter of the fit. The best-fit value of this parameter and its error are evaluated by means of standard maximum likelihood procedures, taking into account properly the correlations. Results: The uncertainties in the astrophysics of the emission dominates the total uncertainty in the expected signal rate, which conservatively ranges from 0.3 to 0.9 events per year and from 1.1 to 2.9 with gadolinium. 
Francesco Vissani and Giulia Pagliaroli
astro-ph.HE