Quantum Creation of a Black Hole
  Using the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary proposal for the wave function of the universe, we can study the wave function and probability of a single black hole created at the birth of the universe. The black hole originates from a constrained gravitational instanton with conical singularities. The wave function and probability of a universe with a black hole are calculated at the $WKB$ level. The probability of a black hole creation is the exponential of one quarter of the sum of areas of the black hole and cosmological horizons. One quarter of this sum is the total entropy of the universe. We show that these arguments apply to all kinds of black holes in the de Sitter space background. 
Wu Zhong Chao (ICRA)