Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal   combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900
  In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then. We now make this model a little more subtle, and account for the possibility of four different levels of mean hurricane activity since 1900. 
Roman Binter, Stephen Jewson, Shree Khare, Adam O'Shay and Jeremy   Penzer