Ecosystems in the Mind: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps of the Kizilirmak Delta   Wetlands in Turkey
  Sustainability of ecosystems & ecosystem management are increasingly accepted societal goals. Can conservation programs be improved by incorporating local people's understanding of ecosystems? The Kizilirmak Delta is one of Turkey's most important wetland complexes. It is also one of the most productive agricultural deltas in Turkey. We obtained 31 cognitive models of the social & ecological system. These models were converted to adjacency matrices, analyzed using graph theoretical methods, & augmented into social cognitive maps. Causal "What-if" scenarios were run to determine the trajectory of the ecosystem based on models defined by stakeholders. Villagers had significantly larger numbers of variables, more complex maps, a broader understanding of all the variables that affect the Kizilirmak Delta, & mentioned more variables that control the ecosystem than did NGO and government officials. Villagers adapting to changing ecological & social conditions actively changed & challenged conditions through the political process. Villagers were faced with many important forcing functions that they could not control. Most of the variables defined by villagers were related to agriculture and animal husbandry. Conservation policies & ecosystem management must encompass larger environmental issues & villagers' cognitive maps must be reconciled with that of NGOs & government officials. Cognitive maps can serve as a basis for discussion when policies & management options are formulated. A villager-centered cognitive mapping approach is not only necessary because villagers resist conservation projects, or because top down projects that do not take local knowledge systems into account fail, but because it is the ethical and responsible way of doing ecosystem management. 
Uygar Ozesmi