Statistics of Gravitational Microlensing Magnification. I.   Two-Dimensional Lens Distribution
  (Abridged) In this paper we refine the theory of microlensing for a planar distribution of point masses. We derive the macroimage magnification distribution P(A) at high magnification (A-1 >> tau^2) for a low optical depth (tau << 1) lens distribution by modeling the illumination pattern as a superposition of the patterns due to individual ``point mass plus weak shear'' lenses. We show that a point mass plus weak shear lens produces an astroid- shaped caustic and that the magnification cross-section obeys a simple scaling property. By convolving this cross-section with the shear distribution, we obtain a caustic-induced feature in P(A) which also exhibits a simple scaling property. This feature results in a 20% enhancement in P(A) at A approx 2/tau. In the low magnification (A-1 << 1) limit, the macroimage consists of a bright primary image and a large number of faint secondary images formed close to each of the point masses. Taking into account the correlations between the primary and secondary images, we derive P(A) for low A. The low-A distribution has a peak of amplitude ~ 1/tau^2 at A-1 ~ tau^2 and matches smoothly to the high-A distribution. We combine the high- and low-A results and obtain a practical semi-analytic expression for P(A). This semi-analytic distribution is in qualitative agreement with previous numerical results, but the latter show stronger caustic-induced features at moderate A for tau as small as 0.1. We resolve this discrepancy by re-examining the criterion for low optical depth. A simple argument shows that the fraction of caustics of individual lenses that merge with those of their neighbors is approx 1-exp(-8 tau). For tau=0.1, the fraction is surprisingly high: approx 55%. For the purpose of computing P(A) in the manner we did, low optical depth corresponds to tau << 1/8. 
Lev Kofman, Nick Kaiser, Man Hoi Lee, and Arif Babul